Sharper side will take Brisbane spoils
18 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses Saturday’s clash in the Queensland capital and writes that the winner may not be the side that makes the big plays, but rather the team that makes the fewest errors.
It may seem an obvious statement to make, but then the Reds and Sharks have been anything but consistent this season.
Both have scraped through to the play-offs despite some woeful performances where the inconsistencies have cost them the result. There have also be instances where these teams have mixed the accurate with the erratic, and have still managed to come out on top.
If this is to be accepted, then what insight can statistics provide? Indeed, both teams should be expected to play more conservatively in a knockout match than they have in recent rounds. Four-try bonus points are no longer a priority, and this could be reflected in either team’s approach.
But there is something to be gained by examining the stats of the Round 4 clash between these two teams. There is also value in the statistics when you look at how the referee for this match, Jonathan Kaplan, has officiated over the course of the 2012 season.
If we look at who is available for the coming match, and who was available for that Round 4 game in Durban, there are key differences but also many similarities. The Sharks will be without Pat Lambie this weekend, who played flyhalf in that previous game. The Reds are likely to play the same halfback pairing of Will Genia and Ben Lucas, as Quade Cooper is not available until a possible semi-final. The big omission for Queenslanders on this occasion will be that of lock James Horwill.
The Sharks won the Round 4 match 27-22 after trailing 17-10 at half-time. It was a game where the Sharks started badly, but found form as the match progressed. It was also a game where the Reds were hampered by a number of injuries throughout and were forced to finish with scrumhalf Genia in the flyhalf channel.
According to ruckingoodstats.com, both teams were guilty of many turnovers on that occasion, with the Reds (19) worse than the Sharks (14). The Reds made 10 handling errors on the day, and this obviously impacted on their ability to capitalise on a superior amount of possession (69% in the first half and 53% in the second). They may have also have edged the game but for some woeful goal-kicking where their kickers missed three attempts at posts.
Lambie was flawless in front of goal, converting all five attempts. But while the Sharks will miss Lambie’s influence in the side, it must be noted that he has since been shifted to fullback with Freddie Michalak coming in at No 10. And apart from lending the Sharks some impetus from that flyhalf position, Michalak has also maintained an impressive goal-kicking record (81%) over the course of the season.
If the Reds impede this Saturday, the Sharks will feel confident that Michalak can make the hosts pay on the scoreboard. Ruckingoodstats reveals that of the 15 teams that played Super Rugby this season, the Reds were ranked third for penalties conceded (they conceded 10.6 penalties per match on average). The Sharks are ranked seventh overall in this respect.
Breaking it down further, the Reds are the biggest culprits when in possession, conceding more penalties than any of the other 14 teams. And looking at the rucks and mauls, the Reds are ranked second for the most penalties conceded.
Scrums aren’t much better, with the Reds conceding the third most penalties. The Sharks will have noted this weakness, and as they boast one of the strongest and most disciplined scrums, they will surely look to target the Reds in this area.
At the other set piece, however, it is the Reds that are more threatening. They are ranked second in the competition for winning the lineout against the throw. Considering their weakness at the scrum, they should look to disrupt the Sharks at the lineout.
While the Reds have conceded a number of penalties while in possession, and a fair few at the breakdown, they are proficient in making breakdown steals (3.9 per match). They have some specialists in Liam Gill and Beau Robinson, as well as hooker Saia Faingaa, who excel in this respect.
It will also help that Kaplan is officiating this fixture, as the South African is one of the more lenient referees at the ruck and maul (Kaplan is ranked 15th out of 19 Super Rugby referees in terms of penalties awarded in these areas). This may allow the Reds to maintain possession a bit more than usual, and also have more of a crack at the breakdown turnover when they’re defending.
But where Kaplan is far less generous is at the scrum, and as the superior team in this area, the Sharks should benefit. Kaplan is ranked fifth when it comes to infringements awarded at this set piece.
He also tends to award more penalties than free kicks and there are only four refs in the competition who offer fewer scrum resets than Kaplan. In short, if the Reds impede or fail to set properly, Kaplan is unlikely to give them another crack. The Sharks have conceded the fewest scrum infringements in the tournament.
Suncorp Stadium is often described as the perfect ground on which to play running rugby, and it’s true that both sides have a penchant for a fast-paced approach. But the occasion may demand a tighter, less risky game plan, and the margin for error will be small.
The Reds may not have Cooper available for this play-off, but they do have a reliable goal-kicker in Mike Harris (who has a 77% success rate). It is for this reason the Sharks will also need to ensure they don’t impede within range of the goal posts.
Their big banker will be Michalak, who will be tasked with turning Reds infringements and errors into points.
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629 Comments
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18 Jul 2012, 16:18 pm
Just found out that they haven’t selected a SA Schools team after Craven Week but selected a 50 man squad and these players will have to go through trials before the team is cut down to 22.
Out of the 50: Bulls – 15, WP – 8, Lions – 6 and Sharks – 4.
18 Jul 2012, 16:19 pm
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-370:
Interesting.
Now all we need is a battery that runs off hot air and Captain Cunteye will solve South Africa’s energy crisis.
18 Jul 2012, 16:20 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-399: No – obviously not because even though I am a 48kg nerd, neither you nor any of your fucken big mouthed buddies on here are prepared to give me any contact details.
If you choose to draw my attention to you, dont go running off to the webbie on here when you cop abuse from me. No racism cries and the such – Got it ?
18 Jul 2012, 16:21 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-401:
Sounds about right.
I await the inevitable hungerstrike from the stormer fans here.
18 Jul 2012, 16:23 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-403: you are threatening me with racial abuse? bwahahahahahahahahahaha
18 Jul 2012, 16:23 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-403:
I am brave.
I will give you contact details.
18 Jul 2012, 16:25 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-405: No dimwit – but its typical for you to resort to that assumption. Just ignore me and I will ignore you. Trust me – you dont want to be associated with me.
18 Jul 2012, 16:26 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-406: Yes – I would imagine that you probably would
18 Jul 2012, 16:26 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-404:
Out of WP’s 8, there are 6 players of coloured and the Bulls have only 5 out of the 15.
Count on WP to always make up the numbers
18 Jul 2012, 16:26 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-407: Oh f#$K – now he is going to go digging up all the old posts….
18 Jul 2012, 16:27 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-401:
now tell us how this make you feel..?.
18 Jul 2012, 16:30 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-408:
Would it be social, or purely for brawling purposes?
Cos I can organise someone for a fight
18 Jul 2012, 16:30 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-411:
Makes me feel confused because I don’t understand why the Bulls are poaching WP’s young talent when they obviously have them in abundance.
18 Jul 2012, 16:32 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-400:
Wptid just charges his Mr Delivery to Rael’s account.
18 Jul 2012, 16:32 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-400:
Judging by the prices we now pay, the canteen is definitely no longer subsidised.
18 Jul 2012, 16:33 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-414:
It gets delivered to us in brown paper bags…
18 Jul 2012, 16:34 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-412: Would you like a fight or a social ? I am sure you can organize someone. Lots of guys volunteered to fight Kimbo Slice.
18 Jul 2012, 16:35 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-409:
But you have a greater supply of cullarts.
It’s not fair.
18 Jul 2012, 16:36 pm
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-415:
How many bank accounts do you have ………..
18 Jul 2012, 16:37 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-407: Wow i actually felt a cold shudder there and you weren’t even talking to me!!!! The interwebs is a scary place. You’re good! Are you like a colombian drug lord’s hitman? That’s awesome!
18 Jul 2012, 16:37 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-419:
Two.
18 Jul 2012, 16:37 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-417:
I’m up for both.
18 Jul 2012, 16:37 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-413:
maybe wp is not prepared to pay the boys?
this isn’t 1980 anymore.
short of supplying some number and facts i think its debatable which union has the most young talent. the bok team is made up mostly of sharks… one can infer anything from that.
the same for the fact 15 of the provisional squad for the sa schools being bulls.
perhaps once wittled down we’ll get an alltogether different picture?
18 Jul 2012, 16:37 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-414:
Flippin raining at the Oval. Predicting rain for 2 of the 5 days.
18 Jul 2012, 16:38 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-414: hahaha holiha as you would say.
Rael strikes me more as a “cash” kind of guy.
@WP Till I Die(WP-Forever)-415: Inflation at work in front of your very eyes.
I’d be protesting. At Friday afternoon drinks.
18 Jul 2012, 16:39 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-419:
Where are these accounts held …………………………
Countries please
18 Jul 2012, 16:40 pm
@Atreides(Atreides)-420:
Dont mess with Dusky
18 Jul 2012, 16:40 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-426: The republic of Hout Bay and the DA led Republic of the Western Cape.
18 Jul 2012, 16:41 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-418: hi jimmy
18 Jul 2012, 16:41 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-424: FFS! We need clear weather in order to spank those orrible Poms
18 Jul 2012, 16:42 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-424:
That’s not a bad thing.
A short series like this we don’t want to get coldcocked in the first test.
Win the toss.
Field.
Have a gentle workout.
Move forward to the second test.
18 Jul 2012, 16:42 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-422:
Are we going to drink G&Ts on your balcony ? After or before the fight ?
18 Jul 2012, 16:42 pm
@Atreides(Atreides)-420: eish, keyboard warrior aplenty…
18 Jul 2012, 16:43 pm
Babetikosweti??
18 Jul 2012, 16:43 pm
If it rains on Mud Island … WTF are we going to watch
18 Jul 2012, 16:43 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-428:
Bobsave
@Transformation(Transformation)-429:
Indeed.
Where is the duplicitous f.ucker when you need him?
I thought he was going to be replaced.
18 Jul 2012, 16:44 pm
@Atreides(Atreides)-420:
Perfectly peaceful dude. There are just some on here that bring out the worst in me. Plus, haven’t you seen the multiple postings – I am a tiny, weak little nerd. Like all Sharks fans apparently. At least according to gaylord.
18 Jul 2012, 16:45 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-432:
G&T. Blerrrgh.
I drink Famous Grouse, but dont tell anyone cos I’ll hear about it for the next gazillion posts.
And I always drink after a fight.
18 Jul 2012, 16:45 pm
@Dusky(Dusky)-417:
i followed that guy’s story when he got big.
he was a ok’ish to decent boxer but came up short in mma rules type fights.
i think he beat a few mediocre fighter but also lost one or two fights to mediocre opposition. one of them was to a boston cop i remember.
still, his backyard boxing was pretty entertaining.
18 Jul 2012, 16:45 pm
I see according to most of the votes the Sharks will beat the Reds this coming weekend.
18 Jul 2012, 16:46 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-431:
Or pull a Hansie and each team declare for 1 in the 1st innings.
Wonder how much he made on that deal.
18 Jul 2012, 16:46 pm
Bobsave!
18 Jul 2012, 16:47 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-438: usually with me it’s the drinking that usually starts the fighting….
18 Jul 2012, 16:48 pm
@Jeraldjay(Jeraldjay)-441:
A leather jacket, a scratched Breitling and all the Kudu Billies he could eat.
18 Jul 2012, 16:49 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-436:
18 Jul 2012, 16:49 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-439: Kimbo was always going to struggle against anyone with any kind of technique. But when it comes to a bare knuckle bar room brawl, trust me buddy – you dont want him on the other team. I had a buddy that sent two bouncers at a Durban nightclub to hospital and if the cops hadn’t have arrived – there may have been a need for one or two more ambulances. Lots of guys think they can just like those two bouncers did…..
18 Jul 2012, 16:49 pm
@Pee Wee(Pee Wee)-440: And ?
18 Jul 2012, 16:51 pm
@Pee Wee(Pee Wee)-440:
ja,
348 chops voted for the sharks & crusaders as qualifier winners
would love it for the bulls to go through but do want the sharks to win too.
18 Jul 2012, 16:51 pm
@stormersboy(stormersboy)-443:
Indeed.
You are a nightmare after your second bottle of Autumn Crackling.
18 Jul 2012, 16:51 pm
@Dawn(Dawn)-438: Oh damn…I cant drink whiskey…the last time I got wasted on Jack the evening didn’t end very well.
I stick to a couple of beers. Thats about it. You got beers ?
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