Super Rugby preview – Qualifiers
20 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI and RYAN VREDE analyse the key match-ups and pick the winners at the weekend.
The boys have both picked the Sharks as South Africa’s best hope of progression this weekend, with Cardinelli calling it close in Christchurch while Vrede believes the Bulls will take a proper beating. It isn’t often they hope they’re wrong, but the Bulls call is one such occasion.
KEO.CO.ZA SUCCESS RATE
VREDE: 86/119 (72%)
JC: 88/119 (74%)
CRUSADERS vs BULLS, CHRISTCHURCH, SATURDAY 09:35
WHY THE CRUSADERS SHOULD WIN:
JC: When it comes to the Super Rugby final series, you don’t want to play against the Crusaders. They haven’t lost a play-off in Christchurch in the tournament’s 17-year history, and boast an overall play-off record of played 24, won 18. The great Bulls side of the past decade that included Victor Matfield and Fourie du Preez failed to win a knockout match in New Zealand, so it would be unfair to expect more from what is a plucky yet inferior 2012 outfit. By comparison, the Crusaders side is stacked with World Cup-winning All Blacks, many of whom have featured in several successful Super Rugby campaigns. The Crusaders will rely on their scrum to provide good set-piece ball, and their multiskilled forwards to set the tempo with some ground-gaining carries and momentum-perpetuating offloads. Andy Ellis and Dan Carter will control the game, marshalling their forwards and midfielders into holes or into positions to win territory. On the back of a powerful showing, these halfbacks will also look to kick for field position, although I can’t see them kicking for touch too often. The Bulls will be under pressure up front and this will impact on the kicking game of their own halfbacks. The Crusaders are a clinical and pragmatic side, but they also have the players to punish poor kicks. The Bulls defence hasn’t been as solid as in previous seasons, and they will be susceptible to the counter-attack.
VREDE: The Bulls have never publicly lamented the impact of the loss of a clutch of vastly experienced players at the end of 2011, but their absence will be telling in Christchurch. Victor Matfield and Fourie du Preez in particular have been at the heart of the tactical besting of the Crusaders in recent years and their absence will be most sorely missed. The Bulls simply don’t have the calibre of personnel to defy their underdog status. You already need a handful of really special players to beat them on your home patch, and how more arduous a task it will be without players of that ilk and in a city where the hosts have a formidable record. The Bulls haven’t fronted physically against the elite sides this season, and there is nothing to suggest they will oust a world-class pack in general play or at scrum time. The latter has been the Bulls’ Achilles heel (they lead the tournament in scrum penalties conceded) and Dan Carter won’t be generous if given kickable opportunities from infringements. The Bulls have been outstanding at contesting lineouts but the Crusaders will limit their opportunities here by kicking infield. The seven-time champions will build their victory on slick execution of a very simple game plan that rests on territorial gains through tactical kicks and dynamic and precise attacking play when in scoring positions. Expect them to target the 10-12-13 channels, the latter especially vulnerable given that JJ Engelbrecht is still learning the defensive demands of the position at Super Rugby level. The Bulls won’t be able to stifle their attacking momentum, and I foresee a convincing defeat for them.
HOW THE BULLS CAN SCORE AN UPSET:
JC: It’s obvious isn’t it? The Bulls need to fight and scrap like never before. The Rebels managed to shock the Crusaders earlier this season, and that will give the Bulls hope. The Crusaders are always a different prospect in the play-offs, but the Bulls will view that shaky showing against the Rebels as a sign that the Cantabrians aren’t completely invincible. They won’t have a price at the scrums, but the Bulls lineout should dominate and they must use this possession wisely. We could see a lot of mauling from the visitors, but we should also see plenty of kicking. Morné Steyn and Francois Hougaard haven’t been on song, but they need to be accurate on this occasion. Precision kicking will allow men like Bjorn Basson to compete in the air, and in this area Basson is on a par with the All Blacks’ Cory Jane. But even if the Bulls do work themselves into good field positions, they will need to convert chances into points. Will the real Morné Steyn stand up? At the other end, Carter will convert all points on offer. Steyn will need to show the goal-kicking temperament that has characterised his career prior to the 2012 season if the Bulls are going to advance to the semis.
VREDE: This rests on their primary strike runners producing a performance they have not yet managed. Pierre Spies needs to set the standard at the gainline. He has been a peripheral figure in games of this magnitude too many times. It is time for a statement exhibition. Jacques Potgieter’s ability to boss the tackle fight will be central to any potential success, as will that of Chiliboy Ralepelle, Flip van der Merwe, Juandre Kruger and Wynand Olivier. If they manage this they will have space to manoeuvre and their kicking game will be amplified. This will afford them opportunities to turn the Saders’ back three or put them under pressure with bombs, which they are excellent at contesting. From there they can force penalties and turnovers (they have been clinical at scoring from the latter).
JC’S CALL: Crusaders by 9
VREDE’S CALL: Crusaders by 15
Crusaders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Richie McCaw (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Subs: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tom Taylor, 22 Sean Maitland.
Bulls - 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (c), 7 Jacques Potgieter, 6 Dewald Potgieter, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 12 Dean Greyling.
Subs: 16 Willie Wepener, 17 Frik Kirsten, 18 Deon Stegmann, 19 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché, 22 Francois Venter.
REDS vs SHARKS, BRISBANE, SATURDAY 11:40
WHY THE REDS SHOULD WIN:
JC: Much depends on the outcome of the Reds’ appeal against Quade Cooper’s suspension. At the time of writing, the Reds were still umming and ahhing about a possible appeal, but there’s little doubt that Cooper would make a massive difference to that Reds side. He was the heartbeat of the team in 2011, that is his attacking play allowed them to capitalise on terrific forward momentum, and together with Will Genia, he out-kicked every other side tactically. The Reds haven’t looked as potent without Cooper at No 10 this season, although home advantage will count for plenty in a play-off match. The team has started to peak at the right time in the tournament, and after winning both their play-off matches, as well as the title, at Suncorp Stadium last year, the Reds will believe they can repeat the feat. They also have a great goal-kicker in Mike Harris, whose boot has won some close encounters, including the second Test against Wales in June.
VREDE: I agree with Cardinelli in as much as the Reds’ success last season rested heavily on the tactical kicking excellence and intelligence of Quade Cooper and Will Genia. They simply haven’t replicated that this season in Cooper’s absence and this reflects in their inconsistency. It is crucial to note that they only made the play-offs because of the weakness of the Australian conference (they have 58 points, as many as the seventh-placed Brumbies). Home advantage will aid them, but it won’t plaster over the numerous deficiencies in their game. Still they are a competent side with combative forwards and backs with game-breaking qualities. If they can match the Sharks’ heavies they’ll be well placed to win through to the semi-final.
HOW THE SHARKS CAN SCORE AN UPSET:
JC: Cooper’s inclusion would change the complexion of this match, but I think it’s more likely that he won’t be available and the fact will give the Sharks a sniff. The Reds aren’t easy to beat in Brisbane, but the Sharks have won a play-off in this city before (1996), and of all the South African sides, the Sharks are the only team to have won a knockout game Down Under. Their victory against the Reds earlier in the season will give the Sharks confidence, as will the return of key Springboks Willem Alberts and Bismarck du Plessis to the starting side. The Sharks will dominate the scrums as well as the collisions. They will need to be accurate in clearing ball-poachers like Liam Gill and Beau Robinson away from the ruck, but if they manage to win the physical battle, this task will be easier than most suspect. The Reds may have a sharpshooter in Harris, but the Sharks have Freddie Michalak, who boasts an 81% success rate in front of goal. This match is set to be more closely contested than the play-off in Christchurch, but I feel that in the end the Sharks will edge it thanks to the efforts of their robust pack.
VREDE: This will hinge on the brutality in contact on attack and defence that Bismarck du Plessis, Beast Mtawarira, Marcell Coetzee and Willem Alberts can offer them. The Sharks’ cause is undermined by not having Alberts at blindside flank, but they will ensure he gets his hands on the ball as often as possible on attack. Du Plessis tends to elevate himself for occasions like these, while Mtawarira’s industry, power and BMT will be an asset. The quartet’s defensive prowess is crucial as well. Du Plessis has consistently shown himself to be a bruising defender and competent scavenger and his efforts will need to be supplemented by a similar effort from the aforementioned and indeed the team at large. Success at the gainline will allow the Sharks’ halfback pair the space and time they require to plot the Reds’ demise. Their outside backs can expect to see plenty of ball, with JP Pietersen running white-hot at present. They’ll miss Pat Lambie’s composure and all-round skill at fullback, but I don’t think this will be terminal to their ambitions.
JC’S CALL: Sharks by 6
VREDE’S CALL: Sharks by 7
Reds – 15 Luke Morahan, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Anthony Faingaa, 12 Mike Harris, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Ben Lucas, 9 Will Genia (c), 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Jake Schatz, 5 Adam Wallace-Harrison, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Greg Holmes.
Subs: 16 James Hanson, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Radike Samo, 19 Beau Robinson, 20 Jarrad Butler, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Ben Tapuai.
Sharks – 15 Louis Ludik, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Paul Jordaan, 12 Tim Whitehead, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jacques Botes, 20 Cobus Reinhach, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Odwa Ndungane.
213 Comments
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19 Jul 2012, 11:31 am
Shark winning Dragons and Pink losing dragons…
Go both…
19 Jul 2012, 11:32 am
I think the Sharks will win but if I’m a realist I would have to say the Saders will take the other one…
Stormers – Sharks
Chiefs – Saders
Mouthwatering…
19 Jul 2012, 11:33 am
Then one of the S teams will be crowned champions of 2012…
Finish and Klaar
19 Jul 2012, 11:34 am
Wow calling a Sharks win by both of you is scarce… But lets hope they win…
19 Jul 2012, 11:37 am
Then the other more important S team will win the Rugby Championship if the coach chooses the right players from the S teams of Super rugby. Talking in code assists my relaxation exercise…
19 Jul 2012, 12:26 pm
Reds and Saders = Head
Sharks and Bulls = Heart
Going to be an awesome weekend of rugby
19 Jul 2012, 12:59 pm
I must agree that the Bulls wiil have a much harder time in Christchurch than Sharks will have in Brisbane. The Bulls have shown in the past that they have, more than any other SA team, the right temperament for play-off rugby, if it were against any other side besides the Saders, home or away, my money would be on the Bulls, even without their experienced guys of previous seasons.
I just think that the Crusaders in Christchurch will be a bit too much. As the Sharks found out in last years play off, may not have been Christchurch due to the earthquake, but home ground none the less.
The Sharks on the other hand will fancy their chances, but what makes this Reds side so dangerous, Cooper or no Cooper, they are the defending champions playing on home turf and that in its self is huge motivation. The Sharks will have to be wary of this. I do believe however that Plumtree has selected the best 22 available for this game, and a good outfit it looks. The forwards, just on paper already look quite daunting, and this is exactly how the Reds will see it. So far quite a few articles almost make it seem as if the Sharks are favourites, i disagree, the Defending champions are the favourites and the Sharks players will be happy to take the underdog status. In saying that, if the Reds do not front up to the Sharks superior and formidable forward pack, the Reds could have a long 80min. As the Sharks have the back line to fire with quick clean go forward ball. Not a 100% sure of the stats, but the Sharks are one of the sides with the most four try bonus points, which indicates to a very competent attack. Not that bonus points matters in these situations.
But good luck to the Bulls aswell. I think for the first time in a long time we will have Sharks fans, supporting the Bulls and the other way around. It will be great to see 3 SA sides in the semis. The Chiefs may just feel overwhelmed.
19 Jul 2012, 13:06 pm
@Sharkie10(Sharkie10)-7: reds will also be buoyed by 60 from 6 winning streak at home and as you mentioned being defending champs – home crowd.
sharks on the other hand though have enough firepower in most positions on the park to seriously pakslae the reds, reds pack too powderpuff imo to stand up to a sharks pack on the rampage, jpp’s form is scintilating atm.
19 Jul 2012, 13:06 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-8: 6 from 6
19 Jul 2012, 13:09 pm
I think the bulls Crusaders game will be close and Reds and sharks will be a wider score line.
I think Sharks have too much too play for. they were 17-0 down and then won by 5 points against a Reds missing cooper and 11 other frontline players. in that game Genia the flyhalf, after two other flyhalf injuries in that game, missed 3 straight forward penalties.
19 Jul 2012, 13:11 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-8:
Pack is too powered puff after they lost narrowly to the crusaders and only for a ref given charity to the home side took away what could have been a win for the reds.
I think everyone is writing off the Reds but really miss that they have won 11 games and beat the chiefs
19 Jul 2012, 13:13 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-3:
when you say Finish and Klaar…does that give gravitus to your excitement!
why do you saffas say finish and Klaar when it is not finish and klaar…do you guys say that to try and convince yourselves!!!
19 Jul 2012, 13:17 pm
Thank God they have both called a Saders win so our chances are up from 20% to 30%.
Sincere thanks from a Bulls supporter who does not hold out much hope.
19 Jul 2012, 13:21 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-8: I like your confidence that The Sharks should win by a reasonable margin, but as a Sharks supporter, my team has proven to me many a time that Play-Off rugby especially in Super rugby is a step too far for them. History shows that The Sharks have played in more play-off matches than any other SA side and we haven’t managed to win it once. I know it seems very negative but in the same breath, i agree that we do have the team to make it past the Reds and set-up an epic Newlands semi-final. It is stressful and i’m somewhat doubtful, but will support my team to the death.
19 Jul 2012, 13:28 pm
@wallabie.(wallabie.)-12: “You Saffas”? It’s the same as saying “End of story” or “full stop”, pretty common colloquialisms… Hardly worth commenting on?
19 Jul 2012, 13:34 pm
@wallabie.(wallabie.)-12:
Why do you Sheepfukers?
Call everyone ”mate”
Is it because you are too daft to remember their names
Call your women sheila
Is it not to confuse your **** with your shag(gy )sheep.
Why do you call a rugby ball a pill, when it is clear that you cannot swallow it
Why do you call a rugby pitch a paddock. Does it remind you of your sheep?
19 Jul 2012, 13:38 pm
@Tarlo(Tarlo)-15:
not only did he coment on it but he also used three exclamation marks at the end of his last sentence..?.huh..?.
is somebody else’s ‘excitement’ getting him excited?
@Airwell(Airwell)-13:
hehehe
the keo kiss is a sweet kiss indeed.
19 Jul 2012, 13:39 pm
Just BTW Mr Vrede. Our friend Dan Carter’s kicking has been VERY iffy this year. He has played a lot less rugby. But his % is just over 70 against Morne’s poor 80. I’m going with the Bulls to score an upset this week-end.
19 Jul 2012, 13:43 pm
@TruBlu(TruBlu)-18:
Your loyalty is commendable Tru.
Just don’t put any money on it.
19 Jul 2012, 13:46 pm
@Xkreni-WP(Xkreni-WP)-16: P*ss off Adolf Verwoed.
19 Jul 2012, 13:52 pm
@cane(cane)-19:
3.8 to 1 is not very good odds to start with anyway though.
being underdogs, rank outsiders, having a whole new team, suffering jetlag and also playing away from home in the saders backyard to boot you’d think the bookies coulda been a little more generous towards the bulls
maybe they see something others dont…
19 Jul 2012, 13:57 pm
The Stormers and the Bulls are going to lose.. The referee’s won’t allow a another Japie team to go to the semi’s. Besides Richie McCaw cannot do anything wrong in the eyes of referee’s. The Bulls would have to be twice as good as the Saders in order to stand a chance against the referee. The same goes for the drainfish.
19 Jul 2012, 13:57 pm
@cane(cane)-19: I actually put money on it. R1000 bucks set to make me R24000.00 richer.
If not.
Well its tax season over here after all…
19 Jul 2012, 14:01 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-21:
“Those Pricks”, (The Bookies), are never generous Bakkies.
They are not sportsman.
They are Accountants.
19 Jul 2012, 14:01 pm
Are gambling expenses tax deductible?
19 Jul 2012, 14:03 pm
@Taahirah(Taahirah)-23:
Good luck Taa………………………………………………………………………I do hope you are currently in credit with your Tax Dept.
8)
19 Jul 2012, 14:04 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-25: \
In Hell they are.
19 Jul 2012, 14:06 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-25: Nope.
But you’re not seriously gonna lump it under “gambling expenses”, are you?
Ive said too much.
You and I will both be audited this year.
19 Jul 2012, 14:06 pm
@scrumchum(phearlessphred)-22:
“…………………. Besides Richie McCaw cannot do anything wrong in the eyes of referee’s”
That’s because Ritchie is a living breathing Saint.
19 Jul 2012, 14:07 pm
@Taahirah(Taahirah)-23:
where are you betting?
those are good odds
@cane(cane)-24:
true cane
but then its more to my point if so
it suggests the bookies rate the bulls more than most?
19 Jul 2012, 14:08 pm
On a serious notes: Should the Bulls lose Ill just sell the tickets I bought for the Stormers-semi on Gumtree. At a profit, of course.
19 Jul 2012, 14:08 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-30: Bet is for Bulls to win the entire thing.
19 Jul 2012, 14:08 pm
There is no money to make at the play offs, only two games which are pretty much one sided, add the east bound jet lag into the mix, what would you get
If every pundit in SA will put his money on the Sharks then I am happy
The Bull game is an after thought, really, that scoundrel Peiper is too clever to risk his promising Test career to swindle it for the Bulls this time, and if the Ref isn’t there for the Bulls (and the Stormers for that matter), what would you get then?
19 Jul 2012, 14:08 pm
@wallabie.(wallabie.)-11: walla, the sharks are a dr jerkyl and mr hyde kind of team, if the sharks that played the stormers and bulls show up it is curtains for the reds, i don’t doubt it BUT if the flaky, inconsistent team that lost to the canes, lions shows up the reds will pip them.
the thing is plum himself doesn’t know which team will show up on any given day.
19 Jul 2012, 14:10 pm
@Taahirah(Taahirah)-28:
What do you put R10,000 on the Bully Boys to win under…………………………
“Sundry Items”.
19 Jul 2012, 14:11 pm
@Tarlo(Tarlo)-15:
its about the use and in which context!!! it seems what he has said non more should be debated because that is what it is going to be…because he said it!!
19 Jul 2012, 14:13 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-25:
i understand its not?
but you do have to pay tax on ‘earnings’ if you’re a professional gambler but not if you’re a hobbyist.
19 Jul 2012, 14:13 pm
@Taahirah(Taahirah)-28:
Please man.
Audit and be damned.
@Taahirah(Taahirah)-31:
If Captain Cunteye du Fuckadilly tries to by them don’t accept a cheque.
Slegs kontant.
19 Jul 2012, 14:13 pm
@wallabie.(wallabie.)-36:
Yes the tribe has spoken!
Finish and klaar…
19 Jul 2012, 14:14 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-34: That is very true…When the Sharks are at their best, even they can beat the Saders away from home. But on their worst day, like the mentioned Lions game we will be eaten, by…well…the Lions. So hopefully will see a Sharks side in Brisbane ready to piss off 50 000 Ausies!!
19 Jul 2012, 14:14 pm
@cane(cane)-35:
Under Charitable Donations
19 Jul 2012, 14:17 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-34:
the sharks that faced the bulls and stormers. the bulls were awful against the sharks and the stormers they look like they are losing momentum or need to get back into it. they just beat the rebels and their game was not convincing.
whilst the reds had most injured for the first 6 games and that momentum is with them and in the international break…they were still playing.
I unfortunately don’t think it will be the sharks on the happier side of full time. I just think they will jinx it tif they win nothing else.
anyway what I am really saying is there are many here think it is obvious that the sharks will win like it is an inheritance.
19 Jul 2012, 14:17 pm
@Taahirah(Taahirah)-32:
oh i see
@Hondo(Hondo)-33:
he does not have to risk his test career
all he has to do is blow it honest and true
if he does this then the multiple crusader infringements/cheating/penalties should see the bulls through, provided morne is at 80% plus on the night.
of course this also requires that he refers ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the tmo at all
19 Jul 2012, 14:17 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-39:
right got it!!!
19 Jul 2012, 14:20 pm
@wallabie.(wallabie.)-44:
Your money on the Reds mate! X-kreni doesn’t like that word… The word is not money or Reds by the way…
19 Jul 2012, 14:22 pm
Adam Scott on course for a 63. Flippen helpers delpers that is a fantastic score… Lawrie 65!!! Wow the course must be playing easy…
19 Jul 2012, 14:23 pm
No wind.
19 Jul 2012, 14:25 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-47:
Can only be! I see Tim shot a six over. Ernie 2 under after 16.
19 Jul 2012, 14:28 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-21:
4:1 is about right, I’ll put my money on the Bulls though
the Reds at 4:7 is complementary for the Sharks who are without Lambie and Styen and with Albert hardly having 40 minutes in him
19 Jul 2012, 14:31 pm
@Hondo(Hondo)-49:
I never knowingly waste my money – but it is yours so go ahead…
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