Super Rugby preview – Qualifiers
20 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI and RYAN VREDE analyse the key match-ups and pick the winners at the weekend.
The boys have both picked the Sharks as South Africa’s best hope of progression this weekend, with Cardinelli calling it close in Christchurch while Vrede believes the Bulls will take a proper beating. It isn’t often they hope they’re wrong, but the Bulls call is one such occasion.
KEO.CO.ZA SUCCESS RATE
VREDE: 86/119 (72%)
JC: 88/119 (74%)
CRUSADERS vs BULLS, CHRISTCHURCH, SATURDAY 09:35
WHY THE CRUSADERS SHOULD WIN:
JC: When it comes to the Super Rugby final series, you don’t want to play against the Crusaders. They haven’t lost a play-off in Christchurch in the tournament’s 17-year history, and boast an overall play-off record of played 24, won 18. The great Bulls side of the past decade that included Victor Matfield and Fourie du Preez failed to win a knockout match in New Zealand, so it would be unfair to expect more from what is a plucky yet inferior 2012 outfit. By comparison, the Crusaders side is stacked with World Cup-winning All Blacks, many of whom have featured in several successful Super Rugby campaigns. The Crusaders will rely on their scrum to provide good set-piece ball, and their multiskilled forwards to set the tempo with some ground-gaining carries and momentum-perpetuating offloads. Andy Ellis and Dan Carter will control the game, marshalling their forwards and midfielders into holes or into positions to win territory. On the back of a powerful showing, these halfbacks will also look to kick for field position, although I can’t see them kicking for touch too often. The Bulls will be under pressure up front and this will impact on the kicking game of their own halfbacks. The Crusaders are a clinical and pragmatic side, but they also have the players to punish poor kicks. The Bulls defence hasn’t been as solid as in previous seasons, and they will be susceptible to the counter-attack.
VREDE: The Bulls have never publicly lamented the impact of the loss of a clutch of vastly experienced players at the end of 2011, but their absence will be telling in Christchurch. Victor Matfield and Fourie du Preez in particular have been at the heart of the tactical besting of the Crusaders in recent years and their absence will be most sorely missed. The Bulls simply don’t have the calibre of personnel to defy their underdog status. You already need a handful of really special players to beat them on your home patch, and how more arduous a task it will be without players of that ilk and in a city where the hosts have a formidable record. The Bulls haven’t fronted physically against the elite sides this season, and there is nothing to suggest they will oust a world-class pack in general play or at scrum time. The latter has been the Bulls’ Achilles heel (they lead the tournament in scrum penalties conceded) and Dan Carter won’t be generous if given kickable opportunities from infringements. The Bulls have been outstanding at contesting lineouts but the Crusaders will limit their opportunities here by kicking infield. The seven-time champions will build their victory on slick execution of a very simple game plan that rests on territorial gains through tactical kicks and dynamic and precise attacking play when in scoring positions. Expect them to target the 10-12-13 channels, the latter especially vulnerable given that JJ Engelbrecht is still learning the defensive demands of the position at Super Rugby level. The Bulls won’t be able to stifle their attacking momentum, and I foresee a convincing defeat for them.
HOW THE BULLS CAN SCORE AN UPSET:
JC: It’s obvious isn’t it? The Bulls need to fight and scrap like never before. The Rebels managed to shock the Crusaders earlier this season, and that will give the Bulls hope. The Crusaders are always a different prospect in the play-offs, but the Bulls will view that shaky showing against the Rebels as a sign that the Cantabrians aren’t completely invincible. They won’t have a price at the scrums, but the Bulls lineout should dominate and they must use this possession wisely. We could see a lot of mauling from the visitors, but we should also see plenty of kicking. Morné Steyn and Francois Hougaard haven’t been on song, but they need to be accurate on this occasion. Precision kicking will allow men like Bjorn Basson to compete in the air, and in this area Basson is on a par with the All Blacks’ Cory Jane. But even if the Bulls do work themselves into good field positions, they will need to convert chances into points. Will the real Morné Steyn stand up? At the other end, Carter will convert all points on offer. Steyn will need to show the goal-kicking temperament that has characterised his career prior to the 2012 season if the Bulls are going to advance to the semis.
VREDE: This rests on their primary strike runners producing a performance they have not yet managed. Pierre Spies needs to set the standard at the gainline. He has been a peripheral figure in games of this magnitude too many times. It is time for a statement exhibition. Jacques Potgieter’s ability to boss the tackle fight will be central to any potential success, as will that of Chiliboy Ralepelle, Flip van der Merwe, Juandre Kruger and Wynand Olivier. If they manage this they will have space to manoeuvre and their kicking game will be amplified. This will afford them opportunities to turn the Saders’ back three or put them under pressure with bombs, which they are excellent at contesting. From there they can force penalties and turnovers (they have been clinical at scoring from the latter).
JC’S CALL: Crusaders by 9
VREDE’S CALL: Crusaders by 15
Crusaders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Richie McCaw (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Subs: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tom Taylor, 22 Sean Maitland.
Bulls - 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (c), 7 Jacques Potgieter, 6 Dewald Potgieter, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 12 Dean Greyling.
Subs: 16 Willie Wepener, 17 Frik Kirsten, 18 Deon Stegmann, 19 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché, 22 Francois Venter.
REDS vs SHARKS, BRISBANE, SATURDAY 11:40
WHY THE REDS SHOULD WIN:
JC: Much depends on the outcome of the Reds’ appeal against Quade Cooper’s suspension. At the time of writing, the Reds were still umming and ahhing about a possible appeal, but there’s little doubt that Cooper would make a massive difference to that Reds side. He was the heartbeat of the team in 2011, that is his attacking play allowed them to capitalise on terrific forward momentum, and together with Will Genia, he out-kicked every other side tactically. The Reds haven’t looked as potent without Cooper at No 10 this season, although home advantage will count for plenty in a play-off match. The team has started to peak at the right time in the tournament, and after winning both their play-off matches, as well as the title, at Suncorp Stadium last year, the Reds will believe they can repeat the feat. They also have a great goal-kicker in Mike Harris, whose boot has won some close encounters, including the second Test against Wales in June.
VREDE: I agree with Cardinelli in as much as the Reds’ success last season rested heavily on the tactical kicking excellence and intelligence of Quade Cooper and Will Genia. They simply haven’t replicated that this season in Cooper’s absence and this reflects in their inconsistency. It is crucial to note that they only made the play-offs because of the weakness of the Australian conference (they have 58 points, as many as the seventh-placed Brumbies). Home advantage will aid them, but it won’t plaster over the numerous deficiencies in their game. Still they are a competent side with combative forwards and backs with game-breaking qualities. If they can match the Sharks’ heavies they’ll be well placed to win through to the semi-final.
HOW THE SHARKS CAN SCORE AN UPSET:
JC: Cooper’s inclusion would change the complexion of this match, but I think it’s more likely that he won’t be available and the fact will give the Sharks a sniff. The Reds aren’t easy to beat in Brisbane, but the Sharks have won a play-off in this city before (1996), and of all the South African sides, the Sharks are the only team to have won a knockout game Down Under. Their victory against the Reds earlier in the season will give the Sharks confidence, as will the return of key Springboks Willem Alberts and Bismarck du Plessis to the starting side. The Sharks will dominate the scrums as well as the collisions. They will need to be accurate in clearing ball-poachers like Liam Gill and Beau Robinson away from the ruck, but if they manage to win the physical battle, this task will be easier than most suspect. The Reds may have a sharpshooter in Harris, but the Sharks have Freddie Michalak, who boasts an 81% success rate in front of goal. This match is set to be more closely contested than the play-off in Christchurch, but I feel that in the end the Sharks will edge it thanks to the efforts of their robust pack.
VREDE: This will hinge on the brutality in contact on attack and defence that Bismarck du Plessis, Beast Mtawarira, Marcell Coetzee and Willem Alberts can offer them. The Sharks’ cause is undermined by not having Alberts at blindside flank, but they will ensure he gets his hands on the ball as often as possible on attack. Du Plessis tends to elevate himself for occasions like these, while Mtawarira’s industry, power and BMT will be an asset. The quartet’s defensive prowess is crucial as well. Du Plessis has consistently shown himself to be a bruising defender and competent scavenger and his efforts will need to be supplemented by a similar effort from the aforementioned and indeed the team at large. Success at the gainline will allow the Sharks’ halfback pair the space and time they require to plot the Reds’ demise. Their outside backs can expect to see plenty of ball, with JP Pietersen running white-hot at present. They’ll miss Pat Lambie’s composure and all-round skill at fullback, but I don’t think this will be terminal to their ambitions.
JC’S CALL: Sharks by 6
VREDE’S CALL: Sharks by 7
Reds – 15 Luke Morahan, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Anthony Faingaa, 12 Mike Harris, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Ben Lucas, 9 Will Genia (c), 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Jake Schatz, 5 Adam Wallace-Harrison, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Greg Holmes.
Subs: 16 James Hanson, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Radike Samo, 19 Beau Robinson, 20 Jarrad Butler, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Ben Tapuai.
Sharks – 15 Louis Ludik, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Paul Jordaan, 12 Tim Whitehead, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jacques Botes, 20 Cobus Reinhach, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Odwa Ndungane.
213 Comments
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19 Jul 2012, 14:32 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-43:
Peiper is a clever one (a barister), but he bent several Super Rugby games this season for the Stormers and for the Bulls
Not this time though, he is under the Micro now
19 Jul 2012, 14:33 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-45:
Both teams having momentum more so with the reds as they have not lost their last 6 games..if I am not mistaken.
I think Reds – home ground advantage and not travelling! Sharks are not going next door!
14 hours then at least a two hour wait in Sydney and then into QLD…to contend with queenslanders!!!
19 Jul 2012, 14:34 pm
@Hondo(Hondo)-51:
I rate that boy very good ref.
19 Jul 2012, 14:35 pm
@Hondo(Hondo)-51:
I would have preferred Peyper to ref the Reds than Kaplan…I think Kaplan is going to add his medicine to this game!!!
19 Jul 2012, 14:42 pm
It will be lovely if the Bulls can beat the cheating Crusaders and the Sharks the Reds.
To my mind that would be fair.
19 Jul 2012, 14:43 pm
@Hondo(Hondo)-49:
or you could make a combonation bet and get even better odds
i think i will
19 Jul 2012, 14:44 pm
combonation = combination
19 Jul 2012, 14:44 pm
@wallabie.(wallabie.)-52:
Rabid Banana Benders.
Scary stuff.
8)
19 Jul 2012, 14:46 pm
@wallabie.(wallabie.)-54:
Kaplan is honest, can make mistakes and guilty of stopping the game often when other let it go but doesn’t bend results!
A rare comodity ine today’s rugby
Peiper isn’t honest, I made some good money on him predicting CORRECTLY that he will win few matches for the Stormers and the Bulls, matches they should have lost, he is sound technically but will carry out whatever SARU instructed him. This time however his Test career is on the line, the Saders are the darling of NZ and any cheat by Peiper will raise some hell, he knows that too.
19 Jul 2012, 14:49 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…(i_love_u_bakkiesbotha)-56:
Tried it, the odds are too straight forward, I’d better go for an upset
19 Jul 2012, 14:52 pm
Well done Ernie 67 certainly puts you in contention. Only 3 behind at the moment…
19 Jul 2012, 14:52 pm
@scrumchum(phearlessphred)-22: Dickwad – the Stormers are already in the semi-final, courtesy of their Nr 1 log ranking. Even the cheating antipodean referees cant do anything about that now. And if the Sharks beat the Reds, a South African team will be in the final too.
Catch a wake up.
19 Jul 2012, 14:53 pm
Dammit, Tim can kiss the cut goodbye with a 6 over. Was hoping the little fella would put up a good show this week. But I see Martin Kaymer and Darren Clarke have joined him on 6 over.
19 Jul 2012, 14:55 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-63:
Ja 6 under leads and being 6 over he is going to need a miracle round tomorrow. But we know things only get tougher…
19 Jul 2012, 14:56 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-61: I see Thomas Aiken is also on 3 under and still has 5 holes to play. Richard Sterne also below par (for now).
Louis, Retief, Jbe and Andrew Georgiou (who the hell is he?) must still tee off.
19 Jul 2012, 14:59 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-65:
Are you watching? I have no idea of condions. Gunts said no wind so that is a plus. Afternoon starts are the tough ones usually. The wind tends to come up then. Thomas is playing well. We used to scores over par winning, so yes the better your start the better your chances.
I have no idea who Andrew Georgiou is and don’t know how he qualified either…
19 Jul 2012, 15:03 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-66: No, saw a bit over lunch – it’s on elsewhere in our building – and the conditions looked cloudy but quiet. Now I’m just following the leaderboard on The Open website.
19 Jul 2012, 15:04 pm
Grace worth a flutter.
Given how many recent majors have been won by first timers.
Proteas wilting.
19 Jul 2012, 15:05 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-67:
Ja same! My favourite Open. Will be sitting in front of telly surfing like crazy this weekend. Golf, Rugby, Cricket…
19 Jul 2012, 15:07 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-69: My wife can’t understand it, but I could easily watch every minute of all 4 days of The Open.
19 Jul 2012, 15:07 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-68:
My mate plays the SA Senior Circuit and says Coetzee is the one to watch… Grace is a good golfer, but still think Oosthuizen our best bet… Ernie is not putting well enough to be a contender…
19 Jul 2012, 15:08 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-70:
I can too. I love it. When that wind starts blowing and they start scrambling… Man nothing better…
19 Jul 2012, 15:11 pm
By the way how come steyn did not get cited…he should get 5 weeks! His tackle was worse than digbys a few rounds back.
19 Jul 2012, 15:12 pm
Indeed.
The odds on Grace will make it interesting.
Louis is probably our best hope.
But I would love Ernie to do it one last time.
19 Jul 2012, 15:12 pm
@wallabie.(wallabie.)-73:
Cause he got an automatic three match suspension!
19 Jul 2012, 15:16 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-70: @Gumboots(Gumboots)-72:
Only those who have followed the little ball can really understand.
Rugby is the greatest Team Sport. (some think).
but Golf is the greatest game ………………………..EVER.
19 Jul 2012, 15:16 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-68: Yes. Rather him than that evil hobbit, Jbe.
19 Jul 2012, 15:16 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-75:
What 3 weeks rest because he cannot play.
It should be when he is available for selection thats when players serve their suspension.
19 Jul 2012, 15:17 pm
@Gumboots(Gumboots)-46: par 70
19 Jul 2012, 15:17 pm
@cane(cane)-76:
Even just to watch it,
is like therapy.
19 Jul 2012, 15:18 pm
@cane(cane)-76: Amen to that, brother. Let us pray. Our father who art in heaven, why did I take driver on the last hole?
19 Jul 2012, 15:18 pm
@cane(cane)-76:
I have to agree 100% Cane! The Open is one very special tournament – things can change drastically for you in one hole…
19 Jul 2012, 15:20 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-74: Ernie, Louis or Charl are probably good bets.
But a spare little buffalo or three on Brandon could be interesting.
19 Jul 2012, 15:20 pm
@shooter(shooter)-79:
Yep
19 Jul 2012, 15:21 pm
@Hondo(Hondo)-59: kaplan honest se moer! 2/3 years ago kaplan was the toast of the town but no he is a bungler of note, see six nations irish vs wales last year!
like i said yesterday he is a “momentum” referee…did you see him block chris eaton from taclking kerr-barlow and THEN saying, “you weren’t going to get to him”
19 Jul 2012, 15:24 pm
Aiken has dropped one back to 2 under with 4 to play. Charl has climbed to 1 under with 2 to play. Coetzee is even par after 8.
19 Jul 2012, 15:25 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-86:
Yes and Woods from 5 under to 3 under… with one hole to play
19 Jul 2012, 15:25 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-83:
Exactly the odds would make Grace interesting.
Maybe even the tief he’s been there and there abouts.
19 Jul 2012, 15:27 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther(gunther)-88:
Retief is struggling lately… I wouldn’t mind him showing up too…
19 Jul 2012, 15:28 pm
Woods 67.
19 Jul 2012, 15:29 pm
@>^..^< katman(katman)-70:
Your wife has a good point.
Golf… Bowls……. jukskei………, fark, I rather paint a wall or listen to the greatest hits of Jim Reeves before watching more than a minute of it. The only exciting golfer ever was John Daley- at least there was always a possibility that he could knock someones head off with either a golf ball or a club
19 Jul 2012, 15:30 pm
Louis Oestyzin hoping the wind picks up tomorrow – pulls out a 56.
Btw, his namesake Tommy the TommyGun Oooeeeestyzin making quite a name for himself too.
19 Jul 2012, 15:33 pm
@shooter(shooter)-92: tommy gun’s sparirng partner is said to be his cousin doodpoes!
19 Jul 2012, 15:33 pm
@Robzim(Robzim)-91: you’ll love curling
19 Jul 2012, 15:35 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-93: Slight advantage in the reach department there for ol’ Tommy
19 Jul 2012, 15:38 pm
@Robzim(Robzim)-91: @shooter(shooter)-94: and Jason Dufner
19 Jul 2012, 15:38 pm
Tahir should get them on the front.
The wicket is flat as fark.
19 Jul 2012, 15:39 pm
@Robzim(Robzim)-91: that’s like watching a whole stage of the tour de france, incredulous!
8)
@shooter(shooter)-95: doodpoes makes up for it with sheer dom krag.
19 Jul 2012, 15:45 pm
Indeed.
The only interesting part of the Snore de France is when they crash.
19 Jul 2012, 15:46 pm
@Transformation(Transformation)-98: watch for it when he goes into tommygun-mode. Brian the machine en Vollies in your corner can help a long way.
steek hom.
the inbetween rounds corner speak is about equally entertaining as the fight.
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