Form will decide Super Rugby semis

Form will decide Super Rugby semis

23 Jul 2012

MARK KEOHANE, in his Business Day column, says play-offs are all about momentum – and all the momentum this weekend will be with the Sharks and Crusaders.

The Stormers’ and Chiefs’ reward for claiming the top two spots in the league stages was a home semi-final and a week’s breather in between games. But what was supposed to be a favour for the consistency of the season could be the curse that ends the Super Rugby season for the hosts of both semi-finals.

Form is definitely with the Sharks and Crusaders and form is all that will matter this weekend. League clashes count for nothing when the teams meet in a match in which there is no second chance.

The Stormers, in 2010 and 2011, were the best defensive team in the competition, yet losing in a final and a semi-final is the return of a good side and not a champion one.

This season they’ve exceeded expectation. Their defensive record is unrivalled and so too is their lack of attack. The players have shown impeccable discipline in respecting the coach’s strategic approach to what best suits the strengths of the team. The squad has been depleted through injury, yet the resolve of the reserve players has been strengthened.

You have to applaud the Stormers’ campaign, regardless of whether the climax is a first home final and a trophy or a second successive home semi-final defeat.

A year ago there was an expectation because of momentum and player availability. This year needs more perspective, even if it may bring no comfort.

The Stormers have the respect of every team in the competition and they are now recognised as among the most powerful in the league. It is a respect that has been earned over the past three years through consistent performance. A team whose players were once labelled pretty boys with no appetite for a scrap are now the biggest scrappers in the tournament. Again, this may not be enough to win the title. The quality of Stormers players in too many positions does not match the desire of those who will play on Saturday.

A team doesn’t fluke winning Super Rugby’s trophy. No limited or poor team has ever ended the season champions because when the big moments have come the quality players have produced — and that’s why I also give the Sharks an advantage, despite the travel back from Australia and the venue being in Cape Town.

The Sharks have the greater individual pedigree in the pack and big-name players are flexing their muscles at just the right time. The physicality that was absent earlier won the Sharks the match against the Reds, who had lost just two of their past 23 matches in Brisbane.

The Sharks, individually and as a unit, were brutal in the collisions, but never did the need to impose themselves physically come at the expense of composure or attacking intent.

It was a glorious evening for the Sharks and South African rugby. It also ensured one all-South African semi-final, which means SA will be represented in the final. That makes a statement that had to be made after the Boks’ disappointment of the 2011 World Cup.

It is also confirmation of the strength of the South African game, which is why South African players must always be expected to be among the leaders in the game

We have always had the players, but the belief of those players hasn’t always matched their playing pedigree.

The Sharks never doubted they could win against the Reds because they’ve won there before. The Bulls never believed they could win in Christchurch, despite all the pre-match boasts of changing history and fearing nothing. The result was as predictable as the traditional Bulls success at Loftus.

There is no need for crisis in Pretoria. The best Bulls team in the past decade couldn’t win in Christchurch.

The Crusaders, inconsistent this year, relied on the incomparable Richie McCaw and the equally magnificent Dan Carter. McCaw, in particular, was a beast and to produce a performance of such influence in his 11th season of Super Rugby was monumental, even by his incredible standards.

Carter was as imposing and as good as at any stage of his career, yet even if he had produced the worst game of his life it wouldn’t have changed the result. The Bulls were beaten before they got on the aircraft.

The Crusaders were very good because, like the Sharks, their best players stood tallest. It is why they will beat the Chiefs in Hamilton.

And while it isn’t the popular view in Cape Town, the Sharks have the better combinations and the better individuals.


476 Comments

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  • 1.sparticus: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:32 am

    Thanks keo , The stormers chance just increased now lol !!

  • 2.Tacitus: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:40 am

    The entirety of the Stormers game is Tackle, Maul and Popgun kick.

    Are they seriously going to maul the Sharks pack?

    With that option off the table, all that’s left is Tackle and Popgun kick.

    Is that going to win you the game against the Sharks team in its current form?

  • 3.THE MAULER: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:42 am

    Keo… Stormers are favourites…

  • 4.The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:43 am

    @Tacitus-2: Are you a Sharks fan. Cool. I always though you supported the Bulls.

  • 5.WP Till I Die: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:47 am

    @The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-4:

    Tacitus is your typical Bulls fan that revels in the North-South rivalry…he’ll support any team but the Stormers.

  • 6.THE MAULER: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:48 am

    Stormers defense vs Sharks attack… Cracker… But then again Sharks defense has been awesome of late… Got a feeling Stormers will throw it around a bit too…

  • 7.Heavens Game: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:49 am

    My post on the other thread I repeat here…

    @Provvas-50: Other than a home game for the final, which is no doubt an advantage and I concede that…. why oh why are the Stormers “the SA team with the best chance to win the comp”…

    To help you, lets break this down…

    1. The most glaring difference between the two teams was that the Stormers D was more superior throughout the comp… However there is no doubt the Sharks D is now fixed… Evidence – see second half of the game away to the Reds. That D will put the Stormers to shame… (I suspect since the arrival of Frans and the experience of the Sharks players at the Bok camps and England series they have learnt a few tricks)

    2. Another glaring difference is the ability of the Sharks to score tries. And the form of JPP – the best 14 in World Rugby at the moment. The Stormers have not fixed this – the way they play the game precludes them from doing this.

    3. Another difference is the superiority of Stormers at lineout time… The emergence of Kanko as a roving lineout threat goes some way to coming close to parity… Liebenburg and Fourie can also be inconsistent at throw ins.

    4. The first time Stormers played the Sharks this year was when Alberts was decidedly off form, Fred was playing SH, if I remember correctly and also before the emergence of a decent centre pairing which the Sharks now have.

    5. Peter Grant and Joe Peterson’s kicking success is 80%+…. Newsflash, Freddy the Frenchman is 80% + too… And Lambie is also an option.

    What we see here is a team that has evolved and improved throughout the season vs a team that has stagnated at best and ever so imperceptibly gone backwards…

    Sharks vs Stormers

    Its Evolution vs Dead End…

    And dead end isnt the “the SA team with the best chance to win the comp”… Yes homeground is a huge advantage but a hostile or even neutral ref can nullify this just for a start…

  • 8.Tacitus: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:49 am

    The Stormers fans seem insulted by any hint that anyone believes another team could possibly be better than their “Unbeatables”.

    Seriously in need of a bit of perspective. There’s a world beyond Sir Lowries Pass, chaps.

  • 9.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:50 am

    Keo with all the Sharks have to go through i reckon form wont be that big a factor,

    Will the Sharks beable to give another full 80 min?? i seriously worry about that

    But come what may, i will silently try be positive and hope my team comes through

  • 10.Transformation: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:52 am

    @Tacitus-8: :lol: @ “There’s a world beyond Sir Lowries Pass, chaps”

  • 11.THE MAULER: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:52 am

    If Paul Jordaan is injured does that mean Steyn can play??

  • 12.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:53 am

    @Transformation-10: :lol:

    @THE MAULER-11: Dont think so mate

  • 13.THE MAULER: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:54 am

    Thanks SL! It would be nice though… ;)

  • 14.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:55 am

    eish Murray won the tri athlon too, what a weekend for SA Sports

  • 15.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:56 am

    @THE MAULER-13: Sure would be boet

  • 16.Heavens Game: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:56 am

    I reckon one of the keys to the outcome of this game is a less obvious one… It will be the confrontation between Doc Du P and young Ginger Ninja… If Jannie comes to the party and schools the youngster then I suspect this will be a huge chink in the Stormers armour… Whats that term…”Right shoulder”?

    All da way…

  • 17.Sasuke: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:58 am

    @Heavens Game-7: Another Glaring difference is the inconsistency of the two teams Sharks beating Stormers one week then losing horribly to the Lions. Sharks beat Brumbies in Canberra then gets spanked the next week by Hurricanes. Sharks convincingly beat Reds, next game against Stormers….well you catch my drift.

    Stormers on the other hand 14 from 16 with the two losses few and far between.

  • 18.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 09:58 am

    @Heavens Game-16: Look no doubt HG the scrum is gonna have to be huge from our side, I think Herbst did very well for us on Saturday

  • 19.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:01 am

    @Sasuke-17: Although true ans something that does worry us as Sharks fans, there is also a little thing you forget?

    Since then it seems the Sharks worked on the mental approach, we beat the Bulls very convincingly, the Cheetahs, then traveled to whip the Reds in Brisbane, so there seems to be a little correction made in their mental side going into matches

    But again time will tell

  • 20.Sasuke: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:01 am

    @Heavens Game-7: Stormers have evolved the way to play Super rugby. Watch more teams adapt their style next year, after they win the trophy this year.

  • 21.William Webb Ellis is now at home: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:04 am

    so much provincialism and all to decide who advances to become the runners up for this years super 15..

  • 22.Sasuke: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:04 am

    @sharks_lover-19: Yes true they have improved it a little bit. After beating the Bulls they struggled in that first half against the Cheetahs only to blow them off the park in the 2nd half. Yes it is going to be a cracker of a game this weekend and let the best team win! Either way we get a S.A team in the final.

  • 23.trupisero: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:06 am

    @Sasuke-20: Not sur everyone is too big on the conference trophy.

    I mean, none of these conference “winners” will feature in the final ;)

  • 24.Yetirat: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:06 am

    @Tacitus-8: Tac you’re so predictable. There’s no need to turn into such a sourpuss just because your team has been knocked out of the competition.

  • 25.trupisero: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:07 am

    @William Webb Ellis is now at home-21: is it that bad in kiwiland?

  • 26.the artist formerly known as gunther: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:09 am

    @trupisero-25:

    lets hope the final isn’t in Pongoland.

    Nobody wants the Southern Hemisphere’s rugby showpiece to be watched by twelve men and a dog.

  • 27.stormer in a teacup: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:10 am

    Momentum? Let me tell you about momentum. The Sharks were riding a high wave of momentum after beating the Stormers – and lost the next week to the Lions. The 2007 ABs were on a tsunami of momentum when they were beaten by France. Momentum simply means how you did last week. Momentum? Ask Adam Scott. Now it’s all about 80 minutes next weekend.

  • 28.Heavens Game: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:10 am

    @Sasuke-17: Inconsistency seems to have been fixed… or have you forgotten that the Sharks have already played 3 “finals”… The first two where they needed to score more tries than the Stormers have this whole season – i.e. BP wins against 1stly another playoff headed team, and secondly the Cheetahs, who just the week before, the Stormers beat by a handsome 2 points…

    Now, in playoffs proper, they just have to win by one, however no-one seemed to remind them off this when they scored 20 points in almost as many minutes against the Reds….

    If inconsistency is the mother of all Stormers hope then you better pray for a French style explosion from Freddy…. and if that happens then there is always Lambie to take over the reins…

    However, homeground advantage and Sharks travel disadvantage will be significant… But, to be brutally honest – I dont think this will be enough for the Stormers…

    But then again this is my opinion, no matter how informed I may be, and I have been incorrect before… Rarely though

  • 29.Sasuke: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:12 am

    @the artist formerly known as gunther-26: lol

  • 30.William Webb Ellis is now at home: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:12 am

    @the artist formerly known as gunther-26: hilarious… too funny Gunther,how do you do it all the time, continue to try so hard I mean? ?

    @trupisero-25: I have faith that either NZ side can win the final at neeulands… Id guess that most would not think the reverse if the final is in NZ…

  • 31.WP Till I Die: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:13 am

    @Heavens Game-28:

    BOOM!

  • 32.sparticus: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:14 am

    @Tacitus-2: Worked 14 out of 16 times so far.

  • 33.trupisero: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:14 am

    @stormer in a teacup-27: but all we heard was how weakened the team was that lost in Dbn, so couldn’t have been that much momemtum gained from that? :)

  • 34.Tacitus: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:16 am

    @sparticus-32:

    So who were the two opponents it didn’t work against?

    Oh, yes. The two other participants of the semifinals that you’ve actually played against this year…

  • 35.Heavens Game: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:17 am

    @WP Till I Die-31: Dynamite…

  • 36.>^..^< katman: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:19 am

    E
    R
    N
    I
    E

  • 37.trupisero: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:19 am

    What was very clear this weekend are that the Saders are a bunch of cheaters. At every breakdown one or more of the opposing players were being pulled in or held back so that they couldn’t defend.

    Make no mistake, they deserved the win, more because the Bulls were absolute rubbish than the Saders were brilliant, but their cheating tactics leave much to be desired.

  • 38.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:19 am

    @Heavens Game-35: @WP Till I Die-31:

    :lol:

  • 39.the artist formerly known as gunther: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:20 am

    Poep.

    You give me such good material.

    You do all the hard work for me.

    Buddy.

  • 40.Robzim: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:20 am

    The johny come latelies somehow sneaked into the semi’s and now all of a sudden they are the favourites, lol.

  • 41.WP Till I Die: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:21 am

    @Tacitus-34:

    When the Stormers played the Crusaders in Christchurch, they were neck-and-neck up until the end, losing by 7 points.

    When the Bulls played the Crusaders in Christchurch, however…

  • 42.Tacitus: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:21 am

    @>^..^< katman-36:

    Ja. Was really chuffed. Funny thing is, I didn’t even know he was in the running, until I switched onthe cricket and the Pommie commentator mentioned that the South Africans have another reason to be chuffed, as Ernie just won the Open.

    So I switched over in time for the speeches and presentation of the trophy.

    Such a humble guy, and wonderful ambassador for us.

  • 43.trupisero: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:22 am

    @Robzim-40: like the Saders ?

  • 44.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:23 am

    @Robzim-40: Stormers are the favourites Rob, rightly so, but my team is still breathing thus they have a chance

  • 45.sharks_lover: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:24 am

    @the artist formerly known as gunther-39: jy bedoel daai ou is soos n poep in n wind tonnel,:lol:

  • 46.Heavens Game: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:24 am

    So, the first game this year between Sharks and Stormers at “fortress” Newland was won by Stormers by the huge margin of 15-12… These were the teams:

    15 Riaan Viljoen, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Frederic Michalak, 8 Keegan Daniel (captain), 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Ross Skeate, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Wiehahn Herbst, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Dale Chadwick

    vs

    15. Joe Pietersen, 14. Gio Aplon, 13. Juan de Jongh, 12. Jean de Villiers (Captain), 11. Bryan Habana, 10. Gary Van Aswegen, 9. Dewaldt Duvenage, 8. Nick Koster, 7. Duane Vermeulen, 6. Siya Kolisi, 5. Andries Bekker, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Brok Harris, 2. Tiaan Liebenberg, 1. Steven Kitshoff

    Sharks have moved on considerably since that last showing at the “Fortress”…. Have the Stormers? :lol:

  • 47.Robzim: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:24 am

    Steve W will be the ref… some call him drunken Steve, others call him Handsome steve… I call him honest Steve.

    Stormers by 7.

  • 48.WP Till I Die: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:25 am

    @trupisero-43:

    The Crusaders did sneak in, but nobody can call them Johnny-come-latelies…

  • 49.Robzim: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:25 am

    @sharks_lover-44:

    Indeed, it’s going to be a humdinger- lets hope the best team on the day wins and Steve don’t play a big part in the outcome.

  • 50.THE MAULER: Reply to this comment
    23 Jul 2012, 10:27 am

    Robzim lets hope Steve doesn’t make a mistake like the 2007 final…

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