Super Rugby preview – Semi-finals
28 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI and RYAN VREDE analyse the key match-ups and pick the winners at the weekend.
Both Vrede and JC are calling an away win in New Zealand and a home victory in the South African derby. The Crusaders’ should improve on what is an intimidating play-off record, and we’re sure that not many punters will disagree with that assumption.
The coastal clash at Newlands should be more tightly contested, although it is the Stormers who should win through and host the final at the same venue next week.
KEO.CO.ZA SUCCESS RATE
VREDE: 88/122 (72%)
JC: 91/122 (75%)
CHIEFS vs CRUSADERS, HAMILTON, FRIDAY 09:35
HOW CHIEFS CAN MAKE THE FINAL:
VREDE: The Chiefs were bested physically on attack and defence the last time these sides met in Hamilton, and they’ll have to improve significantly if they hope to oust the tournament’s play-off kings. They’ve selected their most abrasive pack to duel the Saders’ bruisers, who comprehensively out-muscled the Bulls’ heavies last week. There is significant beef and industry among their forwards, but they will have to produce their best, most cohesive and sustained effort in set (they were awful at the lineout when last they met) and general play to overcome their more refined counterparts. In this regard they’ll benefit from the absence of Kieran Read, who was immense in the aforementioned contest.
They must force the Saders to run from deep, or pressure their clearing kicks in a bid to force broken field situations. Pressing, accurate defence is essential. In general play, their backline’s success has been facilitated by the pack’s strength, and if the big fellas get a roll on, flyhalf Aaron Cruden has the ability to expertly conduct affairs. His eye for vulnerabilities in a defensive line is well known, but he has added impressive and intelligent distribution and a solid tactical and goal kicking game to his armoury. His defence hasn’t lacked either but he must brace for his sternest examination. Outside of him, Sonny Bill Williams will want a statement performance. His temperament is unquestionable, masterclasses in last year’s semi-final and final testament to that. Whether they are able to engineer the time and space for Williams and others on his outside will be decisive to the outcome.
JC: New Zealand writer Marc Hinton got it right when he referred to the Chiefs as Super Rugby’s ‘Moneyball Men’. There are few superstars in this squad, and the team that fronts the Crusaders will be more than just the sum of its parts. They do the basics very well, and what will help their forwards is that they’ve enjoyed a respite of two weeks while the Crusaders’ pack have just battled the Bulls. If their forwards can make an early physical statement, then Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Cruden and Sonny Bill Williams should make inroads into the Crusaders defence. I’ve always felt that Crusaders midfield is vulnerable, ever since Williams defected to the Chiefs, and Ryan Crotty and Robbie Fruean will struggle this Friday if the Chiefs’ inside backs receive front-foot ball. The Chiefs’ underrated forwards hold the key to success, as without a platform, their star-studded backline will battle to breach the visiting defence.
WHY THE CRUSADERS ARE A GOOD BET:
VREDE: Their vastly superior experience is key. The bulk of the Saders players have been through the mincer and have the mental aptitude for the big occasion, which cannot be said about the Chiefs. There is an incredible understanding of the game plan and roles within that game plan, with Dan Carter the fulcrum of their attack. He has steadily risen in influence since his return from injury and was impeccable against the Bulls in the quarters. He and Richie McCaw set the standard which others then pursue. They’ll do so once more to guide their side to the final.
JC: I have been waiting for the Crusaders to be exposed in the back row, but McCaw has surprised me with some masterful performances at No 8, and as a combination the loose trio has been effective against some of the more physical teams in the competition. Their tight five was massively influential in the demolition of the Bulls, and I suspect those five men will be at the heart of yet another play-off victory. Apart from their set-piece superiority, the Crusaders are the kings when it comes to the collisions, and to top it all, they are more than proficient in the dark arts of breakdown play. All in all, they’re a powerful and tactically astute team. I can’t see the Chiefs outplaying the Crusaders in a tactical arm-wrestle. The bad news for the Chiefs is that Carter’s radar is finally working after an early season malfunction, and I expect him to nail every kickable opportunity on offer.
VREDE’S CALL: Crusaders by 5
JC’s CALL: Crusaders by 8
Chiefs – 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Andrew Horrell, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Sona Taumalolo.
Subs: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Lelia Masaga.
Crusaders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Richie McCaw (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Subs: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tom Taylor, 22 Sean Maitland.
STORMERS vs SHARKS, CAPE TOWN, SATURDAY 17:05
HOW THE STORMERS CAN WIN:
VREDE: Everything rests on their kick-chase tactics and pressure defence. When allowed to settle into their groove, the Stormers have systematically and clinically suffocated their opponents, pinning them in their territory and forcing them to take risks. From there they’ve forced infringements and consistently profited from Peter Grant’s goal-kicking accuracy (30/31 penalties).
In these sides’ previous meetings this season, the Stormers failed to impose their will. This was primarily due to being forced to execute their game plan without a platform to do so, given the Sharks’ immense physicality in defence. Their primary strike runners must front against a defensive unit with the personnel to bully them if their confidence is fuelled. The Stormers haven’t exhibited the capacity to transition between approaches which makes it essential that their preferred method is on point. They also need to overcome what appears to be a propensity for mental freezes in knockout matches in front of their home supporters. They must be favourites, particularly since the Sharks have had a taxing travel schedule and demanding clash with the Reds. A fold, like the one against the Crusaders at this stage last year, would have serious implications for their psyche in knockout matches going forward.
JC: I’ve said it more than once over the past couple of weeks, and I’ll say it again; it’s incredible that the Stormers have come this far given the injury setbacks they’ve suffered over the course of the season. But that statement should not be misread as an excuse or a precursor to another play-off loss. The Stormers have coped admirably and their second- and third-choice players have made a stunning impact. What’s been particularly impressive about this side is the way that they have stuck to the plan, and managed to guts out some ugly wins. It will surely stand them in good stead for what will be another brutally physical encounter, and immense battle of wills. In the black and white corner is a side stacked with Springboks, but the Stormers have the more settled unit that has proven itself capable of outbullying even the most hard-nosed teams. Expect more rolling mauls and a collective refusal to concede to a defensive inch.
They should be able to hold their own at the collisions, and it is that 9-10-12 combination that should give them a much needed edge. Grant may not boast the greatest line-kicking game, but his temperament in front of goal has allowed the Stormers to win some tight clashes, and one that stands out was the 15-12 victory over the Sharks at Newlands this year. Jean de Villiers has a big responsibility not only as a leader, but as a midfielder capable of winning the collisions in midfield. It would have been a more interesting battle had Frans Steyn been eligible for this clash, but Meyer Bosman is short on confidence, and has been dominated by De Villiers in previous clashes. In recent years, De Villiers has proven himself to be a big-match player, and I expect he will take his game to another level this Saturday.
WHY THE SHARKS SHOULDN’T BE DISCOUNTED:
VREDE: They are one of the few teams with the tactical intelligence, calibre of players and defensive punch and discipline to beat the Stormers. They showed this at Newlands early in the campaign (a 15-12 defeat) and more recently in their 25-20 victory at Kings Park in May. Their response to the Stormers’ barrage of kicks was superb, which ensured they weren’t trapped deep in their territory for extended periods.
Furthermore, they were devastating with ball in hand, consistently crossing the gainline, which was central to their ability to score three tries. The responsibility for unsettling the Stormers’ defensive line in this manner once more will rest primarily with Willem Alberts, Bismarck du Plessis, Beast Mtawarira and Marcell Coetzee. Their halfback pair of Charl McLeod and Frederic Michalak have shown themselves to be adept at playing for territory, taking on the line, or setting the back division in motion – giving the Sharks an air of unpredictability. They’ll miss Pat Lambie and Paul Jordaan though, the duo possessing a skills range their deputies can’t boast. Still, they do have the white-hot JP Pietersen, who will be a threat if offered space and time to plot their demise.
JC: Nobody should discount the draining effects of travel. Taking this into account, the Sharks should look to replicate their most recent performance in Brisbane, and pile on the points in the first half. They will tire in the second stanza, and if the scoreline is still tight at that stage, the Stormers will be favourites to win. Indeed, the Stormers aren’t a side that’s enjoyed a great deal of success at chasing the game. If they’re well behind at half-time, they will be forced to change their game plan and play more expansively in an attempt to narrow the gap, and this will suit the Sharks. As seen last week, the Sharks are the masters in using turnover ball to score points. So if the Sharks enjoy a good first half, it will spell trouble for the Stormers.
Their scrum has been one of the best in the tournament, and will be favourites in this particular contest. They will want to use this platform to play the game at a lively tempo, and they certainly have the personnel to breach even the best defence. How the Stormers handle the surge after a Sharks scrum will be critical. Their defence has been excellent to date, but they must stall the Sharks’ momentum early in the movement. The Sharks will also be mindful of a tactic that has fractured the Stormers in the past: the tactical kick. A probe, grubber or even a high bomb could create scoring opportunities. It’s a big ask of Charl McLeod, who isn’t the most accurate kicker in the competition, and again the Sharks would have preferred to have had Steyn on board for this clash. But in Michalak, they have a wily international campaigner, and he represents the biggest danger and will ask the most questions of what is an impressive but not unbeatable Stormers defence.
VREDE’S CALL: Stormers by 7
JC’s CALL: Stormers by 6
Stormers – 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Deon Fourie, 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Deon Carstens, 17 Frans Malherbe, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Don Armand, 20 Louis Schrueder, 21 Burton Francis, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.
Sharks – 15 Louis Ludik, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Tim Whitehead, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Odwa Ndungane, 22 Riaan Viljoen.
196 Comments
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26 Jul 2012, 11:57 am
Dragons!!!
26 Jul 2012, 11:58 am
I’ve gone the same way with my picks. Both games though are 50/50 and def hard to pick a winner as so much depends on the start the teams make. The Chiefs are a try scoring team and can hurt you badly very quickly. If the Crusaders slow it down apply the strangle technique they should come out tops, or I hope they do. Stormers won’t let too many tries in and I think the Sharks will run out of steam after last weekend’s pure display. Sharks also don’t want to travel again do they? Surely it’s in the back of their minds? The outcome of the Saders Chiefs game will have an impact on the second game….looking forward to some cracking rugger!
26 Jul 2012, 12:00 pm
sharks bench lacking some backline depth. but jeez that forward pack is awesome.
26 Jul 2012, 12:01 pm
Pressure on the Sharks, overwhelming favourites if you go by posters here. They even have the backing of Mr “2 years” Whoopass – that is suppose to mean something right.
@XhosaKid-1: Aarg beat me to it
26 Jul 2012, 12:02 pm
The Keo scribes have backed the Stormers – it’s in the bag!
BOOM!
26 Jul 2012, 12:02 pm
i have bet on stormers by 12 or less, and chiefs by 12 or less.
26 Jul 2012, 12:15 pm
Yeah, Stormers to take it.
If Jordaan was fit, I would say the Sharks had a good shot, but Bosman kills our backline.
Stormers by 5-10.
Chiefs will beat the Saders.
26 Jul 2012, 12:16 pm
@heboric-4:
Pressure from bloggers hardly affects the actual team.
The VIBE in the whole of SA is that the Stormers should take it.
26 Jul 2012, 12:22 pm
Both games super close, but I’m betting against both calls… Chiefs and Sharks in 2 humdingers!
26 Jul 2012, 12:25 pm
@CenturionShark (aka LondonShark)-8: All the expert are saying its a Crusader vs Sharks Final, even the guys on Reunion don’t give the Stormers a chance
26 Jul 2012, 12:25 pm
@NicG-9: Agree both games will be close. Think Saders will take the Chiefs though.
Sharks by 3 or 5
Saders by 5 or 7
26 Jul 2012, 12:29 pm
@CenturionShark (aka LondonShark)-8:
Really?
Not here in KZN that I can promise you that.
26 Jul 2012, 12:30 pm
Saders all the way – our trophy cabinet is ready
26 Jul 2012, 12:31 pm
STORM SAAM
26 Jul 2012, 12:32 pm
@stew-13: And starting to get a bit dusty?
26 Jul 2012, 12:33 pm
@Puma-11: They’ve got the finals pedigree, but the Chiefs have had a totally different approach and attitude this year and they have players in key positions to take them over the line.
To be honest – i just hope they smash each other to hell and back in that game. the Sharks just have to keep the tempo up and if the really rock up then I don’t care how good the Stormers are on the day… The only niggle in my mind is that in game 2 of the season our kickers pinned the Stormers back and that allowed us to bully them a bit (the score was pretty flattering for them in the end). We now miss Lambie and FS in that dept. so territory may be a bit more even (Grant is rubbish out of hand, but Joe Pietersen has a very handy boot).
Go the Sharks!
26 Jul 2012, 12:34 pm
Both matches are too tough to call with any certainty. Can’t wait to watch these games!
26 Jul 2012, 12:38 pm
@NicG-16: Before I get ribbed by the stormers fans – you guys have had an awesome season (despite the borefest at times). This game’s result lies more with what the Sharks do though, as you guys are a known entity… whereas we have shown the full spectrum this season, sublime to abysmal (Read: Sharks V Bulls & Sharks V Reds as opposed to Sharks Lions). Let’s hope everyone stays injury free for the Boks.
Black & White!
26 Jul 2012, 12:51 pm
@NicG-16: Honestly Nic, the Bok laden Sharks should smash the unworthy Stormers.
All season we have heard how kak Brok, Tiaan, Bekker, Elstadt, Deon Fourie, Grant, Duvenage, Jean Div, Juan, Bryan and Gio are. (There have been kind words for Eben, Siya, Joe P, Steven K) but that’s it.
Heyneke Meyer seems to agree with you Sharks and Bulls fellows that the Stormers players are wayyyyyyyyyyyyy off the Bok mark, so why on earth are you Sharks even worrying?
Its BOK men vs 3 kak Boks, a few 20 year olds, 3 ‘jokes’ and a chap with a popgun boot.
Can the result be in ANY doubt?
26 Jul 2012, 12:54 pm
Someone else on this blog said it well: The semi in SA is the X factor versus the Zzzzz factor.
26 Jul 2012, 12:55 pm
Coin toss in both games.
Crusaders probably edge NZ game (form, big game temperament)
Stormers probably edge SA game (consistency, belief in game plan, home game, Sharks travel schedule).
But 1 moment of brilliance / inaccuracy can decide either encounter.
26 Jul 2012, 12:58 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-19:
BOOM!
26 Jul 2012, 12:58 pm
@kaksioek-20: what you talkin – you prefer the kick and hope rugby of SA … must admit far attractive and exciting – please !
26 Jul 2012, 12:59 pm
@kaksioek-20: Or in your case, the missing Y chromosone factor. As in “Y did your parents not rather watch TV that evening?”.
26 Jul 2012, 13:01 pm
@stew-13:
@Mongril-15:
when they put the VC cup in the Newlands trophy cabinet…
it collapsed like a mummies’ bones from non-use…
had to have another one made that actually had wood inside the coats of varnish…
26 Jul 2012, 13:02 pm
@Mongril-24:
26 Jul 2012, 13:05 pm
All I can say is that I’m going to have fun on Saturday, regardless of the score, I know we (The Sharks) are up against it, I would just like to see a game that the Ref doesn’t f@ ck up and this goes for both teams. Let the loser lose because they were beat, not because they we’re playing against Player 23. Steve Walsh caught on k@ k in our Round 2 game, and I don’t want to see that k@ k again. FFS I am gat vol of watching games that are won and lost by the poe pol in the middle. I honestly don’t know what to think. Sharks camp looks completely at ease and rested, even flying into Cape Town earlier. Stormers camp, is well rested too and also amped for the game. So I honestly have no idea who’s going to prevail. I have read every Rugby blog and as much as everyone wants to make predictions, we all know, the team that wins, is the team that shows up and is blessed with the kiss from lady luck. The bounce of the ball I say.
26 Jul 2012, 13:07 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-19: Jeez, you’re jaded man (or deep down you really believe that). I’m a Sharks supporter through and through, so if I didn’t apply a bit of heart over head there would be a problem.
I haven’t mocked the Stormers – go back and read my post fully. If I offended you by calling the Stormers boring, then stop being so sensitive, for the most part they have been…
Go through the starting teams and tick off man-for-man how many players from either side would make 1 team from the 2. If your weighting is Stormers biased then your heart may also cloud the ‘head’ call.
Good luck to the Stormers, it will take the best from the Sharks BUT that’s what I always expect.
SHARKS FOREVER!
26 Jul 2012, 13:13 pm
@WP Till I Die-22: BOOMBOXBABY
Watch how Sharks fans start wriggling and falling back on D when one starts looking at this game logically. Logic says: The Boks should beat the provincial team of pretenders. Yet they aren’t prepared to admit to this?
So what does it say about the Sharks and the Boks if the Stormers win? I wonder if NicG will stick around to answer me.
BOOM FOREVER?
26 Jul 2012, 13:15 pm
@kaksioek-20: Nope, it’s the Bok factor vs those not deemed good enough to be Bok factors.
26 Jul 2012, 13:16 pm
The oods makers Ladbrokes already decided
Sharks odds to win 4:7
Stormerst to win: 7:5
Steve Walsh’s the Stormers most valuable man, he will deliver the Finals for them without too much controversy, in doing that he will have to control Jonker for not carried away with his calls
Only Pro Legota is missing
26 Jul 2012, 13:22 pm
@Puma-11:
Puma, the odds makers – you know, those who encourage people to put their money where their mouth is – give the Sharks 4:7 to win, Stormers 7:5 to win
Money talks, not much about rugby as Waynad Claassen once observed.
26 Jul 2012, 13:25 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-29:
POP goes the world!
26 Jul 2012, 13:28 pm
Stormers 10
Chiefs 3
26 Jul 2012, 13:36 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-29: Logic says the consistent Stormers (top of the log) and with the far easier route to finals (no travel), face a resurgent Sharks, who have travelled, re-jigged their backline and are away from home…
No need to answer you – if your team wins, then we haven’t rocked up or you played a blinder. the beauty of the competition is that almost anyone can win on any day. I just happen to think the Sharks will beat the Stormers. Deal with it!
26 Jul 2012, 13:37 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-19: Well put, that’s the really sentiment out there, probably why the Sharks have already booked their flight to NZ to face the Crusaders, Stormers have no chance
26 Jul 2012, 13:38 pm
stormers have no BMT….
Sharks are gonna bully them big style….sharks by 5
26 Jul 2012, 13:38 pm
@AssassinWP-14: Waantoe kakhuis toe?
26 Jul 2012, 13:43 pm
@stew-23: Whatcha talkin bout, Willis?
X factor = Sharks
Zzzzz factor = Stormers
The mighty Sharks will deal with you Kiwis the week after
26 Jul 2012, 13:44 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-30: Just admit it: Your team plays dire, scratch your eyeballs out anti-rugby.
26 Jul 2012, 13:45 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-19:
I like how you summed that up because that is in essence what many people on this blog have been saying all season about the Stormers. This game should be a friendly warmup for the Sharks en route to the final.
26 Jul 2012, 13:47 pm
Sharks: 12 international players in their starting line up. (11 Boks and 1 Frog). A few more Boks on the bench.The form team who can play total rugby. The best front row in SA and also the best back row. Their 8th man the “best Super rugby player in SA” according to Reunion. “The best wing in the world” in JPP according to their supporters. An in form fly half and a scrummy who is playing with confidence.
The only possible weakness they have is in the 2nd row and in the midfield.
Stormers: 8 Boks in the starting line up. A hooker playing at 8. A jellybaby at TH. A lock with a crocked back their go to man in the line outs. 3 forwards in their 1st year of senior rugby, still only 20/21 years old. No experience of play off rugby at senior level. A boring gameplan with a even more boring back line. An average scrumhalf and a flyhalf with a pop gun boot. Two selfish centres who don’t like to pass.A right wing past his sell by date and two midgets at left wing and full back.
They are just weak all over the park except for some individual brilliance here and there.
That is what some would have us believe but come Saturday, the weak one will once again moer the strong one.
All these Shark supporters reminding us how they dominated the Stormers in Durbs shy away from telling us that Stormers outscored them in the 2nd half, despite their so-called dominance throughout the match.They also don’t tell us when last they’ve won at Newland in Super rugby or CC.
26 Jul 2012, 13:55 pm
@nama1-42:
“3 forwards in their 1st year of senior rugby, still only 20/21 years old. No experience of play off rugby at senior level.”
3 forwards in their 1st year of senior rugby, still only 20/21 years old with no experience of play off rugby at senior level.
Before some people misinterpret what I’m trying to say and tell me that the Stormers played in play-off matches in 2010 and 2011.
26 Jul 2012, 13:56 pm
the team with the k@kkest quotas will lose … sorry J De Jongh you are the weakest link!
26 Jul 2012, 13:57 pm
@nama1-42: Nama if the sharks disrupt 35% of the Stormers posession they are moer toe.
Sharks has built up a nice momentum but I fear the travelling might start to take it’s toll. Sharks forwards outclass the Stormers completely on paper and I have been saying it for some time now, the so called old heads in the Stormers team will not have the ability to calm the youngsters down if the game becomes realy tight.
26 Jul 2012, 13:58 pm
@nama1-42: The Sharks last beat the Stormers at Newlands in 2009. So the Sharks are due a win there – Boom!
And if you really want to talk about the CC then the Sharks beat Problems there last year
26 Jul 2012, 14:01 pm
@grant10-44: Ooooo fok Mr Saturday night fever himself.
26 Jul 2012, 14:02 pm
@grant10-44: You sound fat, white, bitter and single.
26 Jul 2012, 14:04 pm
katman, nope boet, i don’t support the Lions !!
26 Jul 2012, 14:07 pm
@grant10-44: http://i.imgur.com/OWmdm.gif
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