Super Rugby preview – Semi-finals
28 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI and RYAN VREDE analyse the key match-ups and pick the winners at the weekend.
Both Vrede and JC are calling an away win in New Zealand and a home victory in the South African derby. The Crusaders’ should improve on what is an intimidating play-off record, and we’re sure that not many punters will disagree with that assumption.
The coastal clash at Newlands should be more tightly contested, although it is the Stormers who should win through and host the final at the same venue next week.
KEO.CO.ZA SUCCESS RATE
VREDE: 88/122 (72%)
JC: 91/122 (75%)
CHIEFS vs CRUSADERS, HAMILTON, FRIDAY 09:35
HOW CHIEFS CAN MAKE THE FINAL:
VREDE: The Chiefs were bested physically on attack and defence the last time these sides met in Hamilton, and they’ll have to improve significantly if they hope to oust the tournament’s play-off kings. They’ve selected their most abrasive pack to duel the Saders’ bruisers, who comprehensively out-muscled the Bulls’ heavies last week. There is significant beef and industry among their forwards, but they will have to produce their best, most cohesive and sustained effort in set (they were awful at the lineout when last they met) and general play to overcome their more refined counterparts. In this regard they’ll benefit from the absence of Kieran Read, who was immense in the aforementioned contest.
They must force the Saders to run from deep, or pressure their clearing kicks in a bid to force broken field situations. Pressing, accurate defence is essential. In general play, their backline’s success has been facilitated by the pack’s strength, and if the big fellas get a roll on, flyhalf Aaron Cruden has the ability to expertly conduct affairs. His eye for vulnerabilities in a defensive line is well known, but he has added impressive and intelligent distribution and a solid tactical and goal kicking game to his armoury. His defence hasn’t lacked either but he must brace for his sternest examination. Outside of him, Sonny Bill Williams will want a statement performance. His temperament is unquestionable, masterclasses in last year’s semi-final and final testament to that. Whether they are able to engineer the time and space for Williams and others on his outside will be decisive to the outcome.
JC: New Zealand writer Marc Hinton got it right when he referred to the Chiefs as Super Rugby’s ‘Moneyball Men’. There are few superstars in this squad, and the team that fronts the Crusaders will be more than just the sum of its parts. They do the basics very well, and what will help their forwards is that they’ve enjoyed a respite of two weeks while the Crusaders’ pack have just battled the Bulls. If their forwards can make an early physical statement, then Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Cruden and Sonny Bill Williams should make inroads into the Crusaders defence. I’ve always felt that Crusaders midfield is vulnerable, ever since Williams defected to the Chiefs, and Ryan Crotty and Robbie Fruean will struggle this Friday if the Chiefs’ inside backs receive front-foot ball. The Chiefs’ underrated forwards hold the key to success, as without a platform, their star-studded backline will battle to breach the visiting defence.
WHY THE CRUSADERS ARE A GOOD BET:
VREDE: Their vastly superior experience is key. The bulk of the Saders players have been through the mincer and have the mental aptitude for the big occasion, which cannot be said about the Chiefs. There is an incredible understanding of the game plan and roles within that game plan, with Dan Carter the fulcrum of their attack. He has steadily risen in influence since his return from injury and was impeccable against the Bulls in the quarters. He and Richie McCaw set the standard which others then pursue. They’ll do so once more to guide their side to the final.
JC: I have been waiting for the Crusaders to be exposed in the back row, but McCaw has surprised me with some masterful performances at No 8, and as a combination the loose trio has been effective against some of the more physical teams in the competition. Their tight five was massively influential in the demolition of the Bulls, and I suspect those five men will be at the heart of yet another play-off victory. Apart from their set-piece superiority, the Crusaders are the kings when it comes to the collisions, and to top it all, they are more than proficient in the dark arts of breakdown play. All in all, they’re a powerful and tactically astute team. I can’t see the Chiefs outplaying the Crusaders in a tactical arm-wrestle. The bad news for the Chiefs is that Carter’s radar is finally working after an early season malfunction, and I expect him to nail every kickable opportunity on offer.
VREDE’S CALL: Crusaders by 5
JC’s CALL: Crusaders by 8
Chiefs – 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Andrew Horrell, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Sona Taumalolo.
Subs: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Lelia Masaga.
Crusaders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Richie McCaw (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Subs: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tom Taylor, 22 Sean Maitland.
STORMERS vs SHARKS, CAPE TOWN, SATURDAY 17:05
HOW THE STORMERS CAN WIN:
VREDE: Everything rests on their kick-chase tactics and pressure defence. When allowed to settle into their groove, the Stormers have systematically and clinically suffocated their opponents, pinning them in their territory and forcing them to take risks. From there they’ve forced infringements and consistently profited from Peter Grant’s goal-kicking accuracy (30/31 penalties).
In these sides’ previous meetings this season, the Stormers failed to impose their will. This was primarily due to being forced to execute their game plan without a platform to do so, given the Sharks’ immense physicality in defence. Their primary strike runners must front against a defensive unit with the personnel to bully them if their confidence is fuelled. The Stormers haven’t exhibited the capacity to transition between approaches which makes it essential that their preferred method is on point. They also need to overcome what appears to be a propensity for mental freezes in knockout matches in front of their home supporters. They must be favourites, particularly since the Sharks have had a taxing travel schedule and demanding clash with the Reds. A fold, like the one against the Crusaders at this stage last year, would have serious implications for their psyche in knockout matches going forward.
JC: I’ve said it more than once over the past couple of weeks, and I’ll say it again; it’s incredible that the Stormers have come this far given the injury setbacks they’ve suffered over the course of the season. But that statement should not be misread as an excuse or a precursor to another play-off loss. The Stormers have coped admirably and their second- and third-choice players have made a stunning impact. What’s been particularly impressive about this side is the way that they have stuck to the plan, and managed to guts out some ugly wins. It will surely stand them in good stead for what will be another brutally physical encounter, and immense battle of wills. In the black and white corner is a side stacked with Springboks, but the Stormers have the more settled unit that has proven itself capable of outbullying even the most hard-nosed teams. Expect more rolling mauls and a collective refusal to concede to a defensive inch.
They should be able to hold their own at the collisions, and it is that 9-10-12 combination that should give them a much needed edge. Grant may not boast the greatest line-kicking game, but his temperament in front of goal has allowed the Stormers to win some tight clashes, and one that stands out was the 15-12 victory over the Sharks at Newlands this year. Jean de Villiers has a big responsibility not only as a leader, but as a midfielder capable of winning the collisions in midfield. It would have been a more interesting battle had Frans Steyn been eligible for this clash, but Meyer Bosman is short on confidence, and has been dominated by De Villiers in previous clashes. In recent years, De Villiers has proven himself to be a big-match player, and I expect he will take his game to another level this Saturday.
WHY THE SHARKS SHOULDN’T BE DISCOUNTED:
VREDE: They are one of the few teams with the tactical intelligence, calibre of players and defensive punch and discipline to beat the Stormers. They showed this at Newlands early in the campaign (a 15-12 defeat) and more recently in their 25-20 victory at Kings Park in May. Their response to the Stormers’ barrage of kicks was superb, which ensured they weren’t trapped deep in their territory for extended periods.
Furthermore, they were devastating with ball in hand, consistently crossing the gainline, which was central to their ability to score three tries. The responsibility for unsettling the Stormers’ defensive line in this manner once more will rest primarily with Willem Alberts, Bismarck du Plessis, Beast Mtawarira and Marcell Coetzee. Their halfback pair of Charl McLeod and Frederic Michalak have shown themselves to be adept at playing for territory, taking on the line, or setting the back division in motion – giving the Sharks an air of unpredictability. They’ll miss Pat Lambie and Paul Jordaan though, the duo possessing a skills range their deputies can’t boast. Still, they do have the white-hot JP Pietersen, who will be a threat if offered space and time to plot their demise.
JC: Nobody should discount the draining effects of travel. Taking this into account, the Sharks should look to replicate their most recent performance in Brisbane, and pile on the points in the first half. They will tire in the second stanza, and if the scoreline is still tight at that stage, the Stormers will be favourites to win. Indeed, the Stormers aren’t a side that’s enjoyed a great deal of success at chasing the game. If they’re well behind at half-time, they will be forced to change their game plan and play more expansively in an attempt to narrow the gap, and this will suit the Sharks. As seen last week, the Sharks are the masters in using turnover ball to score points. So if the Sharks enjoy a good first half, it will spell trouble for the Stormers.
Their scrum has been one of the best in the tournament, and will be favourites in this particular contest. They will want to use this platform to play the game at a lively tempo, and they certainly have the personnel to breach even the best defence. How the Stormers handle the surge after a Sharks scrum will be critical. Their defence has been excellent to date, but they must stall the Sharks’ momentum early in the movement. The Sharks will also be mindful of a tactic that has fractured the Stormers in the past: the tactical kick. A probe, grubber or even a high bomb could create scoring opportunities. It’s a big ask of Charl McLeod, who isn’t the most accurate kicker in the competition, and again the Sharks would have preferred to have had Steyn on board for this clash. But in Michalak, they have a wily international campaigner, and he represents the biggest danger and will ask the most questions of what is an impressive but not unbeatable Stormers defence.
VREDE’S CALL: Stormers by 7
JC’s CALL: Stormers by 6
Stormers – 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Deon Fourie, 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Deon Carstens, 17 Frans Malherbe, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Don Armand, 20 Louis Schrueder, 21 Burton Francis, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.
Sharks – 15 Louis Ludik, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Tim Whitehead, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Odwa Ndungane, 22 Riaan Viljoen.
196 Comments
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26 Jul 2012, 14:10 pm
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-45: @kaksioek-46:
Well, you guys are confident about your teams chances. Good to see.
Don’t like it when people say you are arrogant just believe your team will win because I strongly believe that the Stormers will beat the Sharks on Saturday. Not by a few but like last year with something like 20 points.
26 Jul 2012, 14:11 pm
I have went with Chiefs and Stormers to win, purely because that’s the final I’d like to see. But I could equally see a Crusaders vs Sharks final, or Chiefs vs Sharks or… or.. you get the idea.
Either way, I’m just glad there’s no Aussie teams still in the mix
26 Jul 2012, 14:12 pm
@nama1-51: 20 points – impressive, that’s a lot of penalty kicks.
26 Jul 2012, 14:18 pm
@kaksioek-53: Especially since the Stormers haven’t beaten any side this year by more than 15 points.
26 Jul 2012, 14:19 pm
@nama1-51: I am actually a Bulls man and I went Stormers by 6 on SB because of the Sharks travelling and the game is at Newland. Sharks has got the ability though to shift up a gear and then they become a whole different animal.
26 Jul 2012, 14:19 pm
What all you clever Rugby guru’s forget is that if you dominate 1-5 with 1-3 in scrums its goodnight nurse.
The Strompies like the Bulls are weak in the scrums ,and with the potential of the best locks in competition , neither of their hookers can trow the ball in under pressure.
Yes the strompies have not missed their injured stars, why cause they don’t need any skills to tackle 80mins , all you need is commitment.
You need a flyhalve with a clever head to break the Strompies defence, the Frenchie could do that with Mc Cloud breaking around the phases.
Jp is in the best form of his life.
But the key for me is that the Sharkies pass the ball before/in contact , not like my Bulls that ran into the Strompies. Other teams that play like that, are Saders and Chiefs and we know that Saders beat Strompies and they did not play Chiefs….
26 Jul 2012, 14:19 pm
@Tartan-52: I think you are right.
26 Jul 2012, 14:29 pm
Nowhere to hide saakies! Jean vs turnstile Bosman…
26 Jul 2012, 14:31 pm
@kaksioek-54:
Well, like you said earlier, they “are due” to beat a team by a big margin and also sue to score four tries.
26 Jul 2012, 14:34 pm
@nama1-59:
sue = due
26 Jul 2012, 14:34 pm
@nama1-59: i don’t know who Sue is, but it sounds like she is the attacking threat the Stormers have been missing the whole season
26 Jul 2012, 14:41 pm
@grant10-44:
He isn’t bad technically, he simply lacks size by 20kg and 10cm height
He is no more than 75kg in his shoes on, send him against SBW or Nonu can result in a ‘Basson’ type injury and that ain’t funny
26 Jul 2012, 14:42 pm
@kaksioek-61:
think Johnny Cash.
26 Jul 2012, 14:55 pm
@Slappes-58: You actually have to play, to achieve what you suggest , if you only tackle , this will not happen.
26 Jul 2012, 14:56 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-63: So he’s got gravel in his guts and spit in his eye – but was he signed before the April 1 transfer deadline?
26 Jul 2012, 14:59 pm
ooooooo……kak……’Everything rests of their kick chase tactics’ ?
Jissus Vrede……dont you get enough abuse ?
I really hope the Stormers use ‘kick and chase’ tactics. I really, really hope they do !
26 Jul 2012, 15:01 pm
@Tartan-52: Spot on Tartan. That is the final we want to see. I reckon the Stormers and Sharks contest will go down to the wire but I have put money on the Chiefs to win by 10+
26 Jul 2012, 15:04 pm
Yoh! So the Keo predictors are not giving the Sharks a win. Eish! Kiss of death isn’t it, or does that only work when Keo does the predictions.
26 Jul 2012, 15:06 pm
@rossoneri-68:
Yes, Keo has predicted the Sharks to take the win…
26 Jul 2012, 15:09 pm
@rossoneri-68: There you are. I asked your mate Transformation about you and he got all tearful like a little schoolyard girlie. You should say hello to him.
Vrede has an amazing ability to describe exactly how the Sharks win games, but just as an exact mirror image of what he says about how their opposition will win. Watch the Sharks win this using kick and chase rugby. In fact, the Sharks kick and chase rugby has been very effective. Little piekinien Joe Pietersen is going to get his memo with his namesake that weighs 20 odd kg more than him chasing down those up and unders all the time.
Remember what Vrede says – and if the Sharks win – come back and check. You will be amazed.
26 Jul 2012, 15:13 pm
@kaksioek-65:
26 Jul 2012, 15:14 pm
@WP Till I Die-69: Nope – he didn’t. Sorry buddy.
If the Sharks do win – come back and read Vrede’s summation of how the Stormers will win this game again. Its uncanny ! And he has done it twice before. Perfectly !
26 Jul 2012, 15:17 pm
@Dusky-70: all “tearful” you say
backyard breker…
26 Jul 2012, 15:19 pm
Isn’t it marvellous that even after all of O’Neill’s swaying, tampering, tweaking and influencing the Aussies still haven’t even managed to get a team as far as the semis?
26 Jul 2012, 15:20 pm
@Dusky-72:
“44.keo:
26 Jul 2012, 09:07 am
So Stormers have 2 days left in comp and then Sharkies are back off to NZ”
26 Jul 2012, 15:21 pm
@Transformation-73: Ja….it seemed like you had a little wobbly…..Rosso break your heart ? Or….perhaps Rosso is you ?
26 Jul 2012, 15:27 pm
@WP Till I Die-75: That’s keo ? We are talking RYAN VREDE here chap….that’s the important part. He is a savant at predicting exactly how the Sharks win. Especially and strangely enough – only when he predicts an opposition win.
Read his prediction above….now you know exactly how the Sharks will win this game. Just substitute Sharks for Stormers. Here, I will do it for you;
‘Everything rests on their kick-chase tactics and pressure defence. When allowed to settle into their groove, the Sharks have systematically and clinically suffocated their opponents, pinning them in their territory and forcing them to take risks. From there they’ve forced infringements and consistently profited from Fred Michalak’s goal-kicking accuracy (82%)’
There you have it.
26 Jul 2012, 15:31 pm
@WP Till I Die-75: Sorry – that is not really accurate. Wait, let me change it a bit -
‘Everything rests on their kick-chase tactics and pressure defence. When allowed to settle into their groove, the Sharks have systematically and clinically suffocated their opponents, pinning them in their territory and forcing them to take risks. From there they’ve forced infringements and consistently profited by scoring 27 tries in the tournament (11 in their last 3 games) which is 19 more than the Stormers.’
That sounds much better now.
26 Jul 2012, 15:46 pm
@Dusky-76: hahahaha
26 Jul 2012, 15:48 pm
@Dusky-77: Actually WP was talking about Keo, so was Rossi who he was responding to.
Who, as WP pointed out, has backed the Sharks for this weekend.
Don’t jump the gun.
26 Jul 2012, 15:48 pm
Kolisi Man of the Match Stormers by 10
26 Jul 2012, 15:49 pm
@Transformation-79: Who is this dude?
Subconsciously shifting him into the Fern and HG category…
26 Jul 2012, 15:51 pm
@AssassinWP-81: I like.
26 Jul 2012, 16:00 pm
@Bagel-80: I see now – my apologies.
26 Jul 2012, 16:04 pm
@Bagel-82: Dusky is alright he is just exuberant that’s all…it’s all the steroids he takes to be buff for MMA… don’t get on his wrong side though cos he is also know to invite bloggers to fist fights in mall parking lots as he claims to be an MMA brekgat
26 Jul 2012, 16:04 pm
@Transformation-79: You do realize that portraying two separate personalities, especially if they are different sexes…..ticks off a big box in the ‘mental illness’ checklist ?
26 Jul 2012, 16:06 pm
@Transformation-85: Booo hooo little Transie. Are you sad because I haven’t invited you yet ? Do you want a fist fight in a parking lot ? Problem with me moering you, is I will most likely end up in prison.
26 Jul 2012, 16:08 pm
@Dusky-87: Nothing quite as pathetic as threatening someone over the internet… Real tough behind that keyboard hey?
Compensating for something perhaps?
26 Jul 2012, 16:14 pm
@Dusky-87: lol “little”?
26 Jul 2012, 16:15 pm
@kaksioek-61:
Hahaha…we don’t always know what some of these rugby players are up to when no one is watching.
Hoover apparently loved to dress up, if you get my drift.
26 Jul 2012, 16:16 pm
@Bagel-88: Hey, I have offered to meet up. Gaylord even offered me a tattoo, but suddenly became all coy when I tried to set up an appointment.
I have told everyone here that I am actually a 48kg IT nerd – that has played Tekken a few times and now I think I am a MMA fighter. I admitted to that – so nothing to worry about. And I think that might be a bit more pathetic than threatening someone over the internet – but what is even more pathetic than that is Transie claiming that I threatened anyone – and you eating it up like his little *****.
26 Jul 2012, 16:18 pm
@Dusky-87:
Indeed.
And you will meet Frontendloader, Transies 350 pound Zulu brother in law with hands the size dinnerplates.
26 Jul 2012, 16:19 pm
@Transformation-89: Tell us Transie…..tell us…personally I think you’re a skinny little poefter with a big chip on your shoulder and a female side personality. Tell us how you are different from that.
26 Jul 2012, 16:23 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-92: Not worried. I am so unthreatening – they will feel bad beating me – even his fat Zulu brother in law.
If its Transvie, I doubt he knows someone called frontendloader. More likely backendloader.
26 Jul 2012, 16:28 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-92: He has gone in search of the thread now where I threatened someone. He’ll be back with 3 or 4 copy and pastes in just a moment.
26 Jul 2012, 16:29 pm
@Dusky-91: Oh sh y te. Here we go again…. Mr “Forget about your girlfriend and meet and me in the hotel room”.
You seem to be in Norway? How will you klap any of us? Or will it be a SKYPE takedown?
You are the finest interweb fighter ever.
26 Jul 2012, 16:31 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-96: I am in SA at the moment. I told you that gaylord, when you promised my tattoo. But I am only here for another 2 weeks. Still a chance for us to meet if you want.
26 Jul 2012, 16:32 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-96: And nobody is taking anyone down. How old are you ? 15 ?
26 Jul 2012, 16:37 pm
@Dusky-93: why would i try and counter your oobviously drug-fuelled wild imagination?
26 Jul 2012, 16:39 pm
@Transformation-99: Oooo…eish…marra I dont know….anyway, other than the fact that you have your female side personality you are extraordinarily boring. So – if you dont mind, I am going to run along now. As you have multiple personalities, I am sure you are able to talk to yourself too. So – enjoy your chat.
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