Super Rugby preview – Semi-finals
28 Jul 2012
JON CARDINELLI and RYAN VREDE analyse the key match-ups and pick the winners at the weekend.
Both Vrede and JC are calling an away win in New Zealand and a home victory in the South African derby. The Crusaders’ should improve on what is an intimidating play-off record, and we’re sure that not many punters will disagree with that assumption.
The coastal clash at Newlands should be more tightly contested, although it is the Stormers who should win through and host the final at the same venue next week.
KEO.CO.ZA SUCCESS RATE
VREDE: 88/122 (72%)
JC: 91/122 (75%)
CHIEFS vs CRUSADERS, HAMILTON, FRIDAY 09:35
HOW CHIEFS CAN MAKE THE FINAL:
VREDE: The Chiefs were bested physically on attack and defence the last time these sides met in Hamilton, and they’ll have to improve significantly if they hope to oust the tournament’s play-off kings. They’ve selected their most abrasive pack to duel the Saders’ bruisers, who comprehensively out-muscled the Bulls’ heavies last week. There is significant beef and industry among their forwards, but they will have to produce their best, most cohesive and sustained effort in set (they were awful at the lineout when last they met) and general play to overcome their more refined counterparts. In this regard they’ll benefit from the absence of Kieran Read, who was immense in the aforementioned contest.
They must force the Saders to run from deep, or pressure their clearing kicks in a bid to force broken field situations. Pressing, accurate defence is essential. In general play, their backline’s success has been facilitated by the pack’s strength, and if the big fellas get a roll on, flyhalf Aaron Cruden has the ability to expertly conduct affairs. His eye for vulnerabilities in a defensive line is well known, but he has added impressive and intelligent distribution and a solid tactical and goal kicking game to his armoury. His defence hasn’t lacked either but he must brace for his sternest examination. Outside of him, Sonny Bill Williams will want a statement performance. His temperament is unquestionable, masterclasses in last year’s semi-final and final testament to that. Whether they are able to engineer the time and space for Williams and others on his outside will be decisive to the outcome.
JC: New Zealand writer Marc Hinton got it right when he referred to the Chiefs as Super Rugby’s ‘Moneyball Men’. There are few superstars in this squad, and the team that fronts the Crusaders will be more than just the sum of its parts. They do the basics very well, and what will help their forwards is that they’ve enjoyed a respite of two weeks while the Crusaders’ pack have just battled the Bulls. If their forwards can make an early physical statement, then Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Cruden and Sonny Bill Williams should make inroads into the Crusaders defence. I’ve always felt that Crusaders midfield is vulnerable, ever since Williams defected to the Chiefs, and Ryan Crotty and Robbie Fruean will struggle this Friday if the Chiefs’ inside backs receive front-foot ball. The Chiefs’ underrated forwards hold the key to success, as without a platform, their star-studded backline will battle to breach the visiting defence.
WHY THE CRUSADERS ARE A GOOD BET:
VREDE: Their vastly superior experience is key. The bulk of the Saders players have been through the mincer and have the mental aptitude for the big occasion, which cannot be said about the Chiefs. There is an incredible understanding of the game plan and roles within that game plan, with Dan Carter the fulcrum of their attack. He has steadily risen in influence since his return from injury and was impeccable against the Bulls in the quarters. He and Richie McCaw set the standard which others then pursue. They’ll do so once more to guide their side to the final.
JC: I have been waiting for the Crusaders to be exposed in the back row, but McCaw has surprised me with some masterful performances at No 8, and as a combination the loose trio has been effective against some of the more physical teams in the competition. Their tight five was massively influential in the demolition of the Bulls, and I suspect those five men will be at the heart of yet another play-off victory. Apart from their set-piece superiority, the Crusaders are the kings when it comes to the collisions, and to top it all, they are more than proficient in the dark arts of breakdown play. All in all, they’re a powerful and tactically astute team. I can’t see the Chiefs outplaying the Crusaders in a tactical arm-wrestle. The bad news for the Chiefs is that Carter’s radar is finally working after an early season malfunction, and I expect him to nail every kickable opportunity on offer.
VREDE’S CALL: Crusaders by 5
JC’s CALL: Crusaders by 8
Chiefs – 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Andrew Horrell, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Sona Taumalolo.
Subs: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Lelia Masaga.
Crusaders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Richie McCaw (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Subs: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tom Taylor, 22 Sean Maitland.
STORMERS vs SHARKS, CAPE TOWN, SATURDAY 17:05
HOW THE STORMERS CAN WIN:
VREDE: Everything rests on their kick-chase tactics and pressure defence. When allowed to settle into their groove, the Stormers have systematically and clinically suffocated their opponents, pinning them in their territory and forcing them to take risks. From there they’ve forced infringements and consistently profited from Peter Grant’s goal-kicking accuracy (30/31 penalties).
In these sides’ previous meetings this season, the Stormers failed to impose their will. This was primarily due to being forced to execute their game plan without a platform to do so, given the Sharks’ immense physicality in defence. Their primary strike runners must front against a defensive unit with the personnel to bully them if their confidence is fuelled. The Stormers haven’t exhibited the capacity to transition between approaches which makes it essential that their preferred method is on point. They also need to overcome what appears to be a propensity for mental freezes in knockout matches in front of their home supporters. They must be favourites, particularly since the Sharks have had a taxing travel schedule and demanding clash with the Reds. A fold, like the one against the Crusaders at this stage last year, would have serious implications for their psyche in knockout matches going forward.
JC: I’ve said it more than once over the past couple of weeks, and I’ll say it again; it’s incredible that the Stormers have come this far given the injury setbacks they’ve suffered over the course of the season. But that statement should not be misread as an excuse or a precursor to another play-off loss. The Stormers have coped admirably and their second- and third-choice players have made a stunning impact. What’s been particularly impressive about this side is the way that they have stuck to the plan, and managed to guts out some ugly wins. It will surely stand them in good stead for what will be another brutally physical encounter, and immense battle of wills. In the black and white corner is a side stacked with Springboks, but the Stormers have the more settled unit that has proven itself capable of outbullying even the most hard-nosed teams. Expect more rolling mauls and a collective refusal to concede to a defensive inch.
They should be able to hold their own at the collisions, and it is that 9-10-12 combination that should give them a much needed edge. Grant may not boast the greatest line-kicking game, but his temperament in front of goal has allowed the Stormers to win some tight clashes, and one that stands out was the 15-12 victory over the Sharks at Newlands this year. Jean de Villiers has a big responsibility not only as a leader, but as a midfielder capable of winning the collisions in midfield. It would have been a more interesting battle had Frans Steyn been eligible for this clash, but Meyer Bosman is short on confidence, and has been dominated by De Villiers in previous clashes. In recent years, De Villiers has proven himself to be a big-match player, and I expect he will take his game to another level this Saturday.
WHY THE SHARKS SHOULDN’T BE DISCOUNTED:
VREDE: They are one of the few teams with the tactical intelligence, calibre of players and defensive punch and discipline to beat the Stormers. They showed this at Newlands early in the campaign (a 15-12 defeat) and more recently in their 25-20 victory at Kings Park in May. Their response to the Stormers’ barrage of kicks was superb, which ensured they weren’t trapped deep in their territory for extended periods.
Furthermore, they were devastating with ball in hand, consistently crossing the gainline, which was central to their ability to score three tries. The responsibility for unsettling the Stormers’ defensive line in this manner once more will rest primarily with Willem Alberts, Bismarck du Plessis, Beast Mtawarira and Marcell Coetzee. Their halfback pair of Charl McLeod and Frederic Michalak have shown themselves to be adept at playing for territory, taking on the line, or setting the back division in motion – giving the Sharks an air of unpredictability. They’ll miss Pat Lambie and Paul Jordaan though, the duo possessing a skills range their deputies can’t boast. Still, they do have the white-hot JP Pietersen, who will be a threat if offered space and time to plot their demise.
JC: Nobody should discount the draining effects of travel. Taking this into account, the Sharks should look to replicate their most recent performance in Brisbane, and pile on the points in the first half. They will tire in the second stanza, and if the scoreline is still tight at that stage, the Stormers will be favourites to win. Indeed, the Stormers aren’t a side that’s enjoyed a great deal of success at chasing the game. If they’re well behind at half-time, they will be forced to change their game plan and play more expansively in an attempt to narrow the gap, and this will suit the Sharks. As seen last week, the Sharks are the masters in using turnover ball to score points. So if the Sharks enjoy a good first half, it will spell trouble for the Stormers.
Their scrum has been one of the best in the tournament, and will be favourites in this particular contest. They will want to use this platform to play the game at a lively tempo, and they certainly have the personnel to breach even the best defence. How the Stormers handle the surge after a Sharks scrum will be critical. Their defence has been excellent to date, but they must stall the Sharks’ momentum early in the movement. The Sharks will also be mindful of a tactic that has fractured the Stormers in the past: the tactical kick. A probe, grubber or even a high bomb could create scoring opportunities. It’s a big ask of Charl McLeod, who isn’t the most accurate kicker in the competition, and again the Sharks would have preferred to have had Steyn on board for this clash. But in Michalak, they have a wily international campaigner, and he represents the biggest danger and will ask the most questions of what is an impressive but not unbeatable Stormers defence.
VREDE’S CALL: Stormers by 7
JC’s CALL: Stormers by 6
Stormers – 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Deon Fourie, 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Deon Carstens, 17 Frans Malherbe, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Don Armand, 20 Louis Schrueder, 21 Burton Francis, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.
Sharks – 15 Louis Ludik, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Tim Whitehead, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Odwa Ndungane, 22 Riaan Viljoen.
196 Comments
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26 Jul 2012, 16:47 pm
@Dusky-98: Takedown, breakdown, shakedown. 13, pigeon chested, size 4 shoe. Easy pickings for tough guys unfortunately.
26 Jul 2012, 16:51 pm
Anybody who can help me out here, it will be appreciated.
Distances between:
George – Port Alfred
Port Alfred – Port St John
Port St John – Durban
Busy putting a holiday package together driving along the coast from Port Nolloth to Durbs. Internet is playing up and I’m struggling to access Google earth.
Thanks in advance.
26 Jul 2012, 16:55 pm
@Transformation-99: Now I am on drugs as well. You heard someone say that, and now you repeat it.
So I reckon I am going to perpetuate things about you too on this blog. If I say or refer to it enough times, like you have done about me – people will start to believe it too. Lets see what you think about that.
Ey Transvie ?
26 Jul 2012, 16:56 pm
@nama1-102: **** me – are you Transie as well ? So, Transie is now 3 people on here ? Oh my word….
26 Jul 2012, 16:58 pm
@Dusky-103: knock yourself out…
now i own you too tl tl tl
26 Jul 2012, 16:59 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-101: Wait man – I am uncovering something here. Transie, Rosso and Nama…..all the same oke.
And I reckon I know who Nama is…..so, by logical deduction…..
26 Jul 2012, 17:00 pm
@Transformation-105: If you think so dimwit.
26 Jul 2012, 17:03 pm
@Transformation-105: Tell me does your boss know you come talk kak on here to clients of the company you work for ?
26 Jul 2012, 17:28 pm
@Dusky-106:
You reckon you know who I am?
Enlighten me, my good man.
26 Jul 2012, 17:28 pm
@nama1-102:
George-Port Alfred 474km
Port St John-Durban 271
I used one of the Map distance calculators, but PA to PstJ kept bombing!!
26 Jul 2012, 17:34 pm
@nama1-102:
Port Alfred to Port St John between 380 to 413 km depending on route.
26 Jul 2012, 17:35 pm
@nama1-109: hmmmm……..
26 Jul 2012, 17:37 pm
@nama1-109: Did you know that Transformation has several alter egos. Not just on this blog, but on multiple others on the internet including sharksworld.co.za ?
He is at least 3 different names on here. One of them female.
Did you know that ?
26 Jul 2012, 17:54 pm
@David-110:
Thanks David.
So many discrepencies, depending where you look.
I have so far found the following also:
George – Port Alfred – 415km
Port Alfred – port St John – 361km
Port St John – Durban – 271km
According to the map I am using, the distance between Cape Town and Durban is 1712km. Now if you add the distance between Cape Town and George (432km)to those that I have above, the sum does not add up.
That was why I turned to somebody on here for help. Maybe here is somebody who travel that road regularly and will know it off the cuff.
26 Jul 2012, 17:59 pm
@Dusky-113:
Well, you don’t have proof of that, do you?
From what I understand Transie has met quite a few of the bloggers he “met” on here, in real life. Even invited G10 and JR to stay over at his possie when the All Blacks played in PE last year. Do you really think that a trol would be inclined to meet up with a fellow blogger in real life?
I don’t think so.
26 Jul 2012, 18:11 pm
@nama1-115: He’s not a troll. I didnt say that. He just has multiple names.
@nama1-114: You need to know it to the kilometer ? Ask someone with a GPS to check for you.
26 Jul 2012, 18:16 pm
@Dusky-113:
> He is at least 3 different names on here. One of them female.
I’ve always though Transie was a young gym-dwelling Xhosa warrior
Now Dusky said he’s RuPaul doing impromptu Donna Summer impressions
26 Jul 2012, 18:23 pm
I’ll take three Transformation personas over one Dusky any day.
26 Jul 2012, 18:26 pm
@kaksioek-118:
With the multi nics he/she/they can change his name to “The Transformers”
26 Jul 2012, 18:30 pm
@victoriabok-119: I think Dusky is talking out of his ***, actually. Transie may have other nics, but I doubt nama1 is one of them.
26 Jul 2012, 18:32 pm
@kaksioek-120:
Transie’s a good guy
Does he work for Keo, pushing up visitor numbers to the site?
26 Jul 2012, 18:34 pm
@victoriabok-119: Which is exactly why he has that nic.
26 Jul 2012, 18:34 pm
@victoriabok-121: Who knows? All I know is that he is less annoying than Dusky – and that’s enough for me.
26 Jul 2012, 18:34 pm
@kaksioek-118: Ahhhh….that’s sweet. Which one do you prefer ? His male or female personas ?
26 Jul 2012, 18:37 pm
@Dusky-124: I like the imaginary one where he’s your mother, having you aborted.
26 Jul 2012, 18:48 pm
And Dusty is actually also Dawn.
26 Jul 2012, 18:51 pm
@David-110: @Dusky-116:
I’m sorted.
Thanks guys.
26 Jul 2012, 18:54 pm
@kaksioek-120:
I can guarantee you that I am not.
He is trying to sound like baasspeurder Faber. Not doing a good job of it.
26 Jul 2012, 18:55 pm
@nama1-127:
You’re from Calgary if I recall correctly?
26 Jul 2012, 19:01 pm
@nama1-127:
Enjoy the trip. I’ve travelled various parts of your route at different times. Although not in one go. The old Transkei is the most interesting, as opposed to just scenic, with what appears to be idyllic picture postcard villages in the valleys the epitome of heart breaking poverty.
Also, if you travel the dirt roads beware of goat herds and mad drivers in the opposite direction.
26 Jul 2012, 19:03 pm
@kaksioek-125: Sick dude….very sick….
26 Jul 2012, 19:35 pm
Dusky have you gone stark raving mad
26 Jul 2012, 19:42 pm
@Dawn-132:
Too much Lutefisk would do that to you
26 Jul 2012, 19:44 pm
Heeltemaal bevok
26 Jul 2012, 20:00 pm
@Dawn-134:
Hallo Dawn, hoe gaan dit?
26 Jul 2012, 20:30 pm
The Stormers fans haven’t been this nervous about a semi since they watched Brokeback Mountain
26 Jul 2012, 20:44 pm
@nama1-115: thanks nama…it’s amazing how far some of these characters will go to get sone traction
you’re quite right, i’ve met grant, jr, robzim, dawn, xhosakid – we grew up in the same neighbourhood.
dusky is desperate & thus unstable but it is to be expected considering it is thursday & saturday is D-Day
26 Jul 2012, 20:57 pm
@shark4life-136:
26 Jul 2012, 20:57 pm
How does every thread, without fail, manage to degenerate after the 100th post away from Rugby??
26 Jul 2012, 21:13 pm
@Papoose-139: Perhaps rugby is really only about a 100 posts interesting?
Or perhaps these articles tend to rehash the same topic over and over, and any relevant discussion has long since been exhausted.
26 Jul 2012, 21:15 pm
@Papoose-139:
I agree.
There’s only so much you can say about the Stormers.
No one is really interested in what happens with the Sharks or the Bulls.
So minds do tend to wander.
26 Jul 2012, 21:48 pm
@nama1-102: Hey Nama, distances can be deceiving. George to PA fairly easy but depends after PE can be slow depending on route. PA to PSJ is slow – narrow roads, no fences, up & down in parts. PSJ to Durbs v quick once you pass Marina Beach. Time of day/night also affects time. Gotta be mellow & enjoy the scenery, wave to Tata Madiba when you pass his possie ???? Beautiful part of the world, stay over where u can
26 Jul 2012, 22:24 pm
@nama1-128: hi nama.
i dont think durbs-port st johns at 271 kms is accurate at all but if it is, be aware that its at least a 4 hr 30 min drive depending on how quick or slow you are going.
the road has really improved over the last ten years but watch out for the busses and taxis, they have no regard for the rules of the road as we know them.
try not to travel after dark in the kei, especially in winter as domestic animals seek the warmth of the tar after dark and can be a real hazard.
beautiful drive though, enjoyh and drive safe.
26 Jul 2012, 23:20 pm
got nothing to do with kick-chase, grant is not a kicker, they play kick-chase and they will lose, they have a dynamic pack that can go longer and harder than most others (starting to sound like that corn pornopenis ad thats on this site), and that is how they will win with grant and de jong hitting it up flat and taking it to them – defend and they will lose. they gotta get the momentum – thats the key, give it to the sharks and kiss your *** bye bye.
26 Jul 2012, 23:35 pm
puhlease trrransie is a contentious-git-twat-troll.
contrntious-argumentative-palooka-of-note.
:smileyfortrrrransie:
27 Jul 2012, 00:48 am
Nice sunny Winters day here in Aotearoa and expecting good conditions for tonights game in Kirikiriroa (Hamilton). Therefore if Chiefs can get parity at set piece time, they will win and win convincingly by 14.
27 Jul 2012, 05:03 am
Nice sunny day here in new Zealand as well
27 Jul 2012, 06:40 am
Nice sunny day here in Pretoria as well.
Sun almost up!!!
27 Jul 2012, 06:51 am
@Gumboots-148:
Ja it was actaully raining a little while ago here in Brisbane…
I don’t think our weather is going to affect the two games though!
27 Jul 2012, 06:53 am
@Slartibartfast-149:
Who you think is going to take the game tonight?
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