‘Sharks can win Super Rugby final’
1 Aug 2012
Sports scientist Ross Tucker says the Sharks have a realistic chance of beating the Chiefs in Hamilton.
While there is still a Super Rugby final to be played on Saturday, many would agree that the Sharks have already exceeded expectations.
After a stuttering start to their league campaign (which included five defeats in their opening nine fixtures), a strong finish saw them finish in the top six. They did the job during the wildcard qualifier in Brisbane, powering to a 30-17 victory over 2011 champions the Reds. They defied odds in the semi-finals by travelling across the Indian Ocean for the second time in a space of week to give the Stormers their first defeat at Newlands this season with a 26-19 victory.
Astonishing.
So how do we rate the Sharks’ chances in the final? Sure, they’ve hit a purple patch of form, but how much does all the travelling really affect this?
Tucker’s analysis, which includes Super Rugby records from the past seven years, states that playing at home gives a team a five-point advantage, while travel overseas gives you a five-point disadvantage. This study puts the Sharks at a 15-point disadvantage, considering their travel to Hamilton was their third trip across the Indian Ocean in two weeks.
‘I don’t mean 15 points in the literal sense, which many people have interpreted it.’ Tucker told keo.co.za. ‘But theoretically … in the sense that the Sharks would have to perform that much better than they would’ve if they were playing at home. There’s no absolute rating as anything can happen on the day, but this study gives a fan some view to weigh the odds.
‘Guess the score for Saturday’s match, then guess it again, but this time, try to do the hypothetical exercise of imagining that the Sharks are not away from home and that they haven’t had to travel three times in two weeks. If your score is different, then you have factored in the travel effect. How much of an effect is found in how different your answers are. The history of the tournament says it is about 15 points. Think of it as a “cost” of traveling.’
Some pundits have already written the Sharks’ chances off as the Super Rugby title decider is seen as a step too far.
Seven-time champions the Crusaders fell short in a similar scenario last season, after they beat the Sharks in the wildcard play-offs in Nelson before downing the Stormers in the semis in Cape Town. They went on to lose the final 18-13 to the Reds at Suncorp Stadium.
However, Tucker believes the Durban franchise can defy the odds once more.
‘The win over the Stormers was a major psychological boost,’ he said. ‘The Stormers were favourites as they were playing at home and had rest, while the Sharks had the setbacks of travel. But you can never discount form. The Sharks’ players are playing superb rugby individually and their combinations are gelling really well. This will give them the belief that they can do it again … one more time… in Hamilton. The Super Rugby title will be a huge motivator.
‘But while form can’t be discounted, you have to admit that travelling back and forth and such great distances will take its toll. Players have to adapt to certain time zones, then re-adapt, and re-adapt again. It’s a tiring process. [Head coach] John Plumtree will need to manage his players really well and allow them enough rest. He will also need to focus on sleeping hours and diets – those 1% factors that can make a difference.
‘In terms of preparation, Plumtree doesn’t have to develop anything new heading into the final, so he shouldn’t use training drills that will drain his players during the week. With the correct management plan, the Sharks can surprise many people.’
However, Tucker stressed that a strong start to the match will be needed.
‘Against the Stormers, the Sharks began to tired in the last 15-10 minutes of the match. That’s when the Stormers started cutting the deficit and nearly came back. Against the Chiefs, the Sharks will need to build a lead. It will be a tough task, but it would put them in a strong position.
‘At the end of the day, the Sharks will know that they only need to get through 80 minutes. They might discard certain factors, but at the end of the day, this is what sportsmen live for. They can’t avoid the challenge, they can only overcome it. In the final, they’ll try and set the tempo early on and follow through with it.’
By Gareth Duncan
190 Comments
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1 Aug 2012, 22:21 pm
Here to regale us with wonderful tales of his forensic proctology exploits. Just super, really.
1 Aug 2012, 22:30 pm
Anti-retroviral.
1 Aug 2012, 22:37 pm
Please no… !
1 Aug 2012, 22:39 pm
@carol-153: Hey carol, you lot are putting on quit a show. I’m really enjoying the Games so far.
Don’t fck it up.
1 Aug 2012, 22:39 pm
What happened about that white card from the semi finals-I was sure a chiefs player would have to sit this one out.
1 Aug 2012, 23:13 pm
@kaksioek-142:
So you think we erased the white card do you.
Facts first clown. Seems you have em, please share.
1 Aug 2012, 23:21 pm
@Hurricane-156:
Okay, well please enlighten us with the facts……………..instead of being a faaken dipsh it. You becoming a joke just like poppasoos!
1 Aug 2012, 23:23 pm
Sharks have no chance in this game, there is no ways they can overcome the travel and run on the park with Meyer “turnstile” Bosman at 12 and think they can win.
Pigs will fly first!
1 Aug 2012, 23:26 pm
@Hurricane-156: That’s just it, fucknut: there’s nothing; not a peep about the white card. Odd, isn’t it?
1 Aug 2012, 23:45 pm
The Sanzar website has a section for news related to judicial decisions in the Super 12:
http://www.sanzarrugby.com/superrugby/news/?categoryID=846452DC-98FB-D0A7-0A3DBBCEFD2C9E9C
They used to publish regular judicial wraps, but the most recent one is for Round 16. The most recent article in the judicial section is “REDS AND COOPER CONSIDER APPEAL” published on July 18.
Incidentally, note that in the sidebar on the right there are sections for NEW ZEALAND NEWS and AUSTRALIAN NEWS, but none for SOUTH AFRICAN NEWS!
The AUSTRALIAN NEWS is:
Chiefs looking to become third Kiwi Super champion
Western Force announce Michael Foley as new coach
Williams keeps lid on Chiefs rugby finale
Waratahs to appoint new coach
Injured backs added to Sharks Super squad
WTF?!
You have to laugh
How do you like them facts, Hurricane, you doos?
1 Aug 2012, 23:51 pm
I don’t know who’s getting all their panties in a twist over this mediocre rugby spectacle about to transpire on Saturday..
I mean the REAL world of sporting lovers are transfixed to the REAL codes of relatively real sporting achievements as are happening by the minute by the hour by the day in London presently..
World records tumbling and heroics of all manner of extenuated endeavors being performed by real athletes both male and female on the real sporting arena which really matter.
1 Aug 2012, 23:56 pm
@kaksioek-160:
Exactly !
1 Aug 2012, 23:58 pm
@fitz1ella-161:
What? sh it like table tennis, fencing, archery, shooting, sycronised swimming and all the good stuff like that? Riverting stuff……………..not
Load of BS!
1 Aug 2012, 23:59 pm
@kaksioek-159:
Yeah, no mention of the white card over here, probably lost in the system,will likely surface on Monday
@whatever-158:
I am not expecting to see any winged porkers after this game too.
2 Aug 2012, 00:02 am
In some of those sports the so-called “athletes” don’t even break a sweat?? Where’s the heroics, performance endeavor in that?
May as well have f uking darts as well boet!
2 Aug 2012, 00:03 am
@Te Rangatira-164:
Hehe, me neither ……………only more restuarants with shark on the menu
2 Aug 2012, 05:39 am
@Te Rangatira-164: “culminating in all players being issued a white card (effectively placed on report) on the recommendation of Kaplan when he said he could not say who had started a couple of individual punchups, although Waikato players appeared to be … ”
Possibly they just threw it out as it really was just a big brawl with no one really getting hurt.
2 Aug 2012, 06:12 am
@kwas-167:
It seems with these blanket white cards that it is easier to get off, or rather nothing seems to come of it. Waste of time imo.
2 Aug 2012, 06:30 am
There was something reported a few days back in the paper saying the sighting commisioner had looked at it and there was nothing to answer, looks like this one will also be added to the SAFFA conspricay chronicles.
2 Aug 2012, 06:32 am
Looks like this Keo site is the main source of night time entertainment for a number of strange people.
Sad!
2 Aug 2012, 06:45 am
@NZINCHINA-169:
Howzit China
Have decided to venture into Chiefs territory this weekend…..be it Rotorua and party with the locals, a victory party……Rotovegas style…
2 Aug 2012, 06:51 am
@Te Rangatira-171:
very well mate, Rotovegas should be going off after a Chiefs victory this weekend and together with the Magic win it will have been a very good sporting year for the area. I’m hoping the Chiefs run over them on Saturday they’ll be so pumped it could be a cricket score ( the bait is set)
2 Aug 2012, 07:02 am
@NZINCHINA-172:
Yep, the people down there are a happy lot, just wont mention to them I’m from Auckland and everything will go good. Yes I’m expecting a Chiefs victory and the town should be going off…..hehe think I might change my surname for the night to a good Ngapuhi one, like Lattimer, even though the locals are wary of us northern iwi.
2 Aug 2012, 07:07 am
@NZINCHINA-169:
point us to your sources, porker.
we have google too.
just tell us and we’ll pull the article up..?..
hmmmmm..?..
2 Aug 2012, 07:09 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-146: @>^..^< katman-149: @kwas-167: @the artist formerly known as gunther-150:
As grand initiates in the field of divinatory arts(we felt Stormers would lose) we must be hugely bored to get so excited by a harmless rugby call.
Images of drooling dogs of bore at the sound of Pavlov’s gong frightens me.
Better leave this and get on out.
2 Aug 2012, 07:09 am
you’re not dealing with a couple ‘a chow meins here, you chop.
2 Aug 2012, 07:19 am
@NZINCHINA-169:
You are correct.
A reference to it being overlooked was made on Monday in one of the Kiwi threads.
Ignore the boeremag bully.
2 Aug 2012, 07:22 am
@oogle-177:
sources, cupcake…sources…
simple question
2 Aug 2012, 08:01 am
Oh, really – nothing to report, hey chaps? A bit of punching in the face is nothing to get excited about? If it’s Kiwis punching Kiwis and some of the Kiwis have a final to play then we should all just turn a blind eye. Of course, silly me …
BS!
Where was it mentioned that the citing commissioner said no further action was required? I have seen no such thing – not a peep.
But keep on keeping on – the rules are different for Kiwis.
2 Aug 2012, 08:08 am
@Te Rangatira-173: Jafa’s not welcome there?
2 Aug 2012, 08:09 am
science rubbish
Cheifs will win and I have feeling win big
too many Big Game players.
2 Aug 2012, 08:56 am
you are correct im dealing with a caveman
2 Aug 2012, 09:02 am
have you stocked up on valium for the weekend as its going to read NZ 11 titles SA 3 late Saturday night
2 Aug 2012, 10:42 am
Chowmein, u taking over from poppadoos?
2 Aug 2012, 10:46 am
Or you and hurridoos gonna fight it out for prime tw at?
2 Aug 2012, 11:14 am
@kaksioek-160:
The White Card decision probably went the same way as the Bulls gouging allegations. Ive seen less practised choreography in the Synchronised Swimming events than I did from van der Merwe and Ralepelle that day. And not 1 blemish in sight.
My guess is they were gouging each other. When in Sth Africa…
2 Aug 2012, 11:58 am
@The Donkeys Egg-186: Odd – I could have sworn I saw Chiefs players punching Crusaders players and vice-versa. It must be part of some dream I had where the SANZAR rules apply to players from New Zealand.
2 Aug 2012, 14:15 pm
@kaksioek-187:
Sadly, there is only 1 thing worse than gouging. And thats pretending youve been gouged, twice, in a fraudulent and ultimately unsuccessful attempt to massage a result in their favour.
Given that it seems to be behaviour exclusive to Sth African rugby, I presume SANZAR apply these gouging rules only to players from Sth Africa.
Players scuffling with handbags at 10 paces pale in comparison to the choreographed Synchronised Gougers of Pretoria.
2 Aug 2012, 14:22 pm
@kaksioek-187:
Indeed.
Good to see the Crusading Gougers get a good fisting.
2 Aug 2012, 22:52 pm
@trupisero-180:
Nah…Saffas more than welcome….Rotovegas is a tourist town…..the only thing is that my ancestors went on a rampage down there and knocked off quite a few of the locals, something they have never forgotten.
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