‘Sharks can win Super Rugby final’
1 Aug 2012
Sports scientist Ross Tucker says the Sharks have a realistic chance of beating the Chiefs in Hamilton.
While there is still a Super Rugby final to be played on Saturday, many would agree that the Sharks have already exceeded expectations.
After a stuttering start to their league campaign (which included five defeats in their opening nine fixtures), a strong finish saw them finish in the top six. They did the job during the wildcard qualifier in Brisbane, powering to a 30-17 victory over 2011 champions the Reds. They defied odds in the semi-finals by travelling across the Indian Ocean for the second time in a space of week to give the Stormers their first defeat at Newlands this season with a 26-19 victory.
Astonishing.
So how do we rate the Sharks’ chances in the final? Sure, they’ve hit a purple patch of form, but how much does all the travelling really affect this?
Tucker’s analysis, which includes Super Rugby records from the past seven years, states that playing at home gives a team a five-point advantage, while travel overseas gives you a five-point disadvantage. This study puts the Sharks at a 15-point disadvantage, considering their travel to Hamilton was their third trip across the Indian Ocean in two weeks.
‘I don’t mean 15 points in the literal sense, which many people have interpreted it.’ Tucker told keo.co.za. ‘But theoretically … in the sense that the Sharks would have to perform that much better than they would’ve if they were playing at home. There’s no absolute rating as anything can happen on the day, but this study gives a fan some view to weigh the odds.
‘Guess the score for Saturday’s match, then guess it again, but this time, try to do the hypothetical exercise of imagining that the Sharks are not away from home and that they haven’t had to travel three times in two weeks. If your score is different, then you have factored in the travel effect. How much of an effect is found in how different your answers are. The history of the tournament says it is about 15 points. Think of it as a “cost” of traveling.’
Some pundits have already written the Sharks’ chances off as the Super Rugby title decider is seen as a step too far.
Seven-time champions the Crusaders fell short in a similar scenario last season, after they beat the Sharks in the wildcard play-offs in Nelson before downing the Stormers in the semis in Cape Town. They went on to lose the final 18-13 to the Reds at Suncorp Stadium.
However, Tucker believes the Durban franchise can defy the odds once more.
‘The win over the Stormers was a major psychological boost,’ he said. ‘The Stormers were favourites as they were playing at home and had rest, while the Sharks had the setbacks of travel. But you can never discount form. The Sharks’ players are playing superb rugby individually and their combinations are gelling really well. This will give them the belief that they can do it again … one more time… in Hamilton. The Super Rugby title will be a huge motivator.
‘But while form can’t be discounted, you have to admit that travelling back and forth and such great distances will take its toll. Players have to adapt to certain time zones, then re-adapt, and re-adapt again. It’s a tiring process. [Head coach] John Plumtree will need to manage his players really well and allow them enough rest. He will also need to focus on sleeping hours and diets – those 1% factors that can make a difference.
‘In terms of preparation, Plumtree doesn’t have to develop anything new heading into the final, so he shouldn’t use training drills that will drain his players during the week. With the correct management plan, the Sharks can surprise many people.’
However, Tucker stressed that a strong start to the match will be needed.
‘Against the Stormers, the Sharks began to tired in the last 15-10 minutes of the match. That’s when the Stormers started cutting the deficit and nearly came back. Against the Chiefs, the Sharks will need to build a lead. It will be a tough task, but it would put them in a strong position.
‘At the end of the day, the Sharks will know that they only need to get through 80 minutes. They might discard certain factors, but at the end of the day, this is what sportsmen live for. They can’t avoid the challenge, they can only overcome it. In the final, they’ll try and set the tempo early on and follow through with it.’
By Gareth Duncan
190 Comments
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1 Aug 2012, 17:10 pm
There is a reason that the superugby log/system rewards consistency. Gonna stick my neck out and say chiefs by 15-20,,,,,Support all RSA teams albeit Stormers supporter,,,,,,,but lets get onto planet earth!
1 Aug 2012, 17:11 pm
@nama1-45: Transie – Cant read dutch – sorry.
I see there is a strong call from the WP/Stormers fans for Alistair Coetzee to resign. My guess is that he cant be fired or there will be a riot with rocks being thrown at police and media in the streets outside Newlands so sorry boys – you are stuck with him as long as he wants to hang around.
1 Aug 2012, 17:13 pm
@Transformation-48: He and Allistair are both very stubborn individuals, that I can concur with. BUT: Jean’s character and passion for his franchise and province have always been legit and real.
As long as the tweaks he mentions include getting rid of Fleck, the masses will be ‘all in’ again.
The Sharks improved once they were coached by Meyer at the Boks it seems….There is a helluva lot less of Plumtree in the Sharks play now than what there was pre-internationals.
But again, Jean Div IMHO, remains a gent and stand up captain.
I wonder what Keegan’s letter might say?
“Sorry for wasting everyones time?”
Off for a run
Have a good one.
1 Aug 2012, 17:13 pm
@connie99-51: Ummmm…you don’t have to lie. I doubt there are many Stormers fans hoping the Sharks take the title. That much is clear.
Its understandable. The Sharks gouged a wire brush through a deep, septic wound caused by no major titles in 12 years last weekend. It’s still hurting a bit in Cape Town.
To be honest, if it were the other way around I would also be supporting the Chiefs.
So dont worry – just be honest.
1 Aug 2012, 17:15 pm
@Robzim-40:
Ja.
In is electric onnerpant.
Have you hooked your Y-fronts up to a AAA battery yet?
1 Aug 2012, 17:15 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-53: That is probably what Keegan’s letter would say, you’re right and it would be precisely spot on.
Not the ‘defeated politician’ letter that Jean wrote. Did he get a template off a website somewhere ? Probably not, because there are some grammatical errors in it.
1 Aug 2012, 17:19 pm
@Dusky-56: Don’t steal my nic whilst I am out jogging!!!!!!
1 Aug 2012, 17:19 pm
This is the same dude who gave the Stormers an 8-10 point advantage over the Sharks last weekend? His last 2 paragraphs are frikkin’ pearlers! Master of the Bleeding Obvious!
1 Aug 2012, 17:20 pm
Has Beast cut his hair into a bit of a Mohawk….nice ! BEAAAASSST !!!!
1 Aug 2012, 17:21 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-57:
1 Aug 2012, 17:25 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-53: hey Keegs is a EC boytjie with proper manners and gravitas – geez where is Tac?
1 Aug 2012, 17:26 pm
@Dusky-52: i’m going to gym Dusky, don’t steal my nic!!!!
1 Aug 2012, 17:26 pm
Just watching some replays of the game with a box of tissues. It is actually so funny to hear the turncoat Bob Stinkgat reversing as the game wore on.
1 Aug 2012, 17:27 pm
@Transformation-62: Don’t worry, I cant possibly sound as thick as you.
1 Aug 2012, 17:29 pm
The key moment for the Stormers was when Etsebeth ran over Bissy
They should have capitalised on that but instead retreated psychologically and waited for the Sharks to win the game
1 Aug 2012, 17:29 pm
“At the end of the day, the Sharks will know that they only need to get through 80 minutes”…..
I was thinking if the Stormers score in their last effort of last week’s game, there going to be extra time, and then the Sharks would be dead.
Only if they won it in that extra time… there job for this week would’ve been evene crazier.
Now,,,, what if they get through 80 minutes – which inevitably will happen.
But let’s say the scroes are tied…. then they have to get through more than 80 minutes geniuses…
1 Aug 2012, 17:31 pm
What people dont seem to understand is that Tucker has not made any predictions at all. Everybody knows that hometeams have an advantage and that travelling overseas across timezones have a physiological effect on the human body.All he did was to try quantify it by using the statistical history of the tournamens (results between teams over 7 years at home versus away from home) as a basis.
Basically he only reported the historical results.
1 Aug 2012, 17:31 pm
@Sheriff-65: I am just watching the game again. Truth is, Etsebeth got his backside handed to him for the rest of the game. He got so erect from that incident with Bismark, he forgot there was still a game to play.
He also has severe butterfingers.
1 Aug 2012, 17:31 pm
scores/ scroes.
the scroes would be loose and the scores tied.
1 Aug 2012, 17:32 pm
@shooter-66: LOL
1 Aug 2012, 17:34 pm
@Dusky-68: no dude. maybe he lost a little track on what else he should do, which we don’t know what that is in the Stormers gameplan. But he basically kept going… how many times did he get the ball in that game. plenty. and he worked hard to get some gain line advantage, only, too often, with nobody with/ behind him.
1 Aug 2012, 17:38 pm
Havent seen anyone mention that partly why the Stormers lost was because Jean Pant cant pass when he plays 12 – which is really put well into perspective how he markedly improved when playing 13 for the Boks. He wasnt killing it for th rest of the backline all night long. I cant believe that a pro player like him can not see that by watching games he has played in over again? I mean really.
Secondly his dumb call for going for posts with that last penalty blew any chance they had of levelling the scores. Fact is Stormers were a couple of points behind throughout the game so they never really deserved to take it at any point. But they stood a slim chance of levelling at 72 min. Talk about stupid captaincy. Did Jean really think that at that stage the Stormers still had enough in the tank to pop over the penalty and come back for a try to cinch the game? At no point did they show they were capable of doing that during the match.
1 Aug 2012, 17:39 pm
@shooter-71: Dude – go watch the game. I am watching it again. He made several mistakes in that game. Remember the long range penalty which Rian Viljoen missed ? That penalty was given as a result of Estebeth. He was also stripped of the ball a few times in that game.
Don’t be like a typical Stormer and not be able to take criticism. Truth is – his only good moment was coming off the stronger in the clash with Bismark.
Without bias, Anton Bresler had a better game than him. Definitely. But I know the Stormers lot will kak themselves before admitting it.
1 Aug 2012, 17:41 pm
@Dusky-68:
The flaw in the SA rugby psyche is that they have an obsession to break the adv line with forwards
I’m advocating that the primary line break must come from 10-12; they are faster which gives the defence less time to organise; if tackled then form the ruck but aim to go all the way
The game is about continuity – you have to ensure that the ball keeps on moving to the man in the better position; the instinct has to be to create, to score
1 Aug 2012, 17:42 pm
@shooter-71: Pietersen’s try – missed tackle from Etsebeth.
1 Aug 2012, 17:44 pm
@Dusky-73: Ja, ok if you say so.
I only watched the game once.
I’m only saying he did a lot of work that nobody else put their hand up for.
Giving away a penalty, getting the ball ripped ‘a few’ times [how many?] does not = getting his bum handed to him.
I’m not a Stormer supporter.
1 Aug 2012, 17:46 pm
@Sheriff-74: The Sharks aren’t using 10 – 12 buddy. Go watch the game – it isn’t too difficult to pick up their game plan. Their game plan is based on recycling 3 or 4 ball carriers (Coetzee, Alberts, Bismark, Beast) that each take 2 to 3 opposition players to tackle coupled with quick recycling and patience. They have figured out that if they can execute a move involving those 4 players playing in tandem 10 times in a game – they will score tries from it. Against the Stormers, they scored 1 from that exact tactic.
They know they have something special, and they knew they would overcome the Stormers. JP Pietersen even said it after the game – they knew if they could hold the scores close for 20 minutes – that they would take the game.
1 Aug 2012, 17:47 pm
Meanwhile the Sharks will have to be mindful that the Chiefs employed an aggressive tactic against the Kroesaders.
They targeted McCaw and one wonders who they will target in the Sharks. Bissy or Keegan?
Sharks must go in with an opportunistic mindset; go and steal the game from the Chiefs
One can only hope that the Kiwis will not use underhanded tactics; lets hope and pray that rugby will be the winner at the end of the day
1 Aug 2012, 17:49 pm
@Sheriff-74: There’s a difference in making a break, and breaking the advantage line, but you knew that.
1 Aug 2012, 17:49 pm
@shooter-76: Oh, the kid is enthusiastic and a hard worker. The new class as I call them and the class is filling up quickly. Guys like Lambie, Etsebeth, Kolisi, Coetzee are all part of the ‘changing of the guard’ without a doubt.
Etsebeth is hugely talented so I am not saying he is kak overall. He just didn’t have a good game if he has to be really honest with himself. Some of his runs were good and he gives it all, but he made some handling mistakes in critical phases of attack for the Stormers.
Not trying to deride him – just keeping it real.
1 Aug 2012, 17:51 pm
@Sheriff-78: Just like I said the Stormers will have a big problem on their hands if they are expecting the Sharks to play ‘finals rugby’ – the Chiefs are making a big mistake if they are planning to target one specific player – especially in the Sharks loose forwards.
But hey maybe I shouldn’t say anything just in case the Chiefs coaching staff are reading this. Please Chiefs – target a specific Sharks player. That would be very much appreciated just as the ‘finals rugby’ from the Stormers was.
1 Aug 2012, 17:51 pm
67 aaahhhh, so he is stating the obvious then. They could have asked any muppet on here and he would have said the same thing. U don’t need a phd to see that.
1 Aug 2012, 17:52 pm
@shooter-79:
1 Aug 2012, 17:53 pm
@Dusky-77:
Listen son, you’re assumption is that the Sharks have the perfect game plan
I’m saying that attacking from 10-12 is the way to go; the Sharks got away because Grant just did not take control
The key players for the Chiefs will be: Cruden, SBW, the prop (forget his name) and be very careful of Robinson the 15
1 Aug 2012, 17:54 pm
@Dusky-75: nobody was going to tackle him
1 Aug 2012, 17:55 pm
I tell you who got bliksem’d hard at the rucks and mauls a few times was Tiaan Liebenberg.
He is the biggest c$nt in rugby, so I enjoy watching that.
1 Aug 2012, 17:58 pm
@Sheriff-84: Did I say anywhere that the Sharks have a perfect game plan ? How do you know what my assumptions are – are you the internet blog mind reader ?
The Sharks have a very good game plan however and it would be very silly of the Chiefs to target one player. But hey – you seem to know better.
The Stormers also had some standout players. But like Peanut butter, anchovies and marshmallows are all wonderful ingredients – you dont bake a cake using them together.
Sharks strength lies in their ball carriers. Strong ball carriers with Keegan running behind them waiting to f$ck up any turnovers the opposition might think of getting. Its by no means perfect – but its very good.
1 Aug 2012, 18:02 pm
I think the bubble pop came and was indicated by the look on Andries Bekker’s face just after Freddie’s drop goal at 75 minutes…..’POP’
1 Aug 2012, 18:04 pm
@Dusky-75:
Check the replay to see where was De Jongh who supposedly was the player to mark JP?
1 Aug 2012, 18:06 pm
@Slumtown-72:
JdV seemed pretty good at forward passes?!
1 Aug 2012, 18:08 pm
@Dusky-87:
I think you’re right; I probably know better
The Chiefs understood that McCaw needed to be rattled and so they targeted him in the initial stages of the game; similarly they understand that the Sharks will look to someone for inspiration – maybe Michalak?
And so while they go about executing their own game, simultaneously one or two players will give the identified target a hard time
I’m worried about Wayne Smith there
1 Aug 2012, 18:08 pm
@Hondo-89: Where was he ? Making a knife ?
1 Aug 2012, 18:08 pm
Rattle Michalak and you cripple the Sharks attack. He was the main difference on Saturday.
1 Aug 2012, 18:11 pm
Dofsky…
You at it again…?
trying to trash Etzebeth…
Most runs in the game Etzebeth, 17, 112m gained…
“Remember the long range penalty which Rian Viljoen missed ? That penalty was given as a result of Estebeth. ”
Etzebeth gave away ZERO penalties…
check rugbystats.com.au
so you talking out your cloaca…
again…
1 Aug 2012, 18:14 pm
@Dusky-92:
JdJ was running across to the left away from JP line, most likely was looking for an interception
So much so for the much praised ‘defensive guru’ Nienaber
1 Aug 2012, 18:16 pm
That prop is Sona Taumalolo
1 Aug 2012, 18:20 pm
@ufo-94: Etsebeth was in front of the ball knocked on by Habana and handled it. The penalty was given for off side, and the commentators both said it was Etsebeth.
I knew you mountain **** wouldn’t be able to look at it objectively. What was I thinking. He had a kak game. One good hand off catching Bismark on the throat – well done. Thats it.
1 Aug 2012, 18:20 pm
@David-93: You think the Stormers didn’t know that ? Were they too busy choosing their victory party outfits and hairstyles to take notice ?
1 Aug 2012, 18:22 pm
@Hondo-95: I think he was running away, because if you look at physicality, JP would be a tour bus and JdJ would be a Ford Fiesta. Even if JdJ was standing in that channel, I think JPP would have run clean over him.
1 Aug 2012, 18:24 pm
@Sheriff-91: I like how you talk on others behalf. First I was claiming the Sharks have the perfect game, which I wasn’t and now the Chiefs know which Shark to target.
Are you in all of our heads ? Have you phoned the Chiefs to get this information ?
I actually dont think you know a thing about rugby if you mix up a line break with breaking the advantage line.
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