‘Sharks can win Super Rugby final’
1 Aug 2012
Sports scientist Ross Tucker says the Sharks have a realistic chance of beating the Chiefs in Hamilton.
While there is still a Super Rugby final to be played on Saturday, many would agree that the Sharks have already exceeded expectations.
After a stuttering start to their league campaign (which included five defeats in their opening nine fixtures), a strong finish saw them finish in the top six. They did the job during the wildcard qualifier in Brisbane, powering to a 30-17 victory over 2011 champions the Reds. They defied odds in the semi-finals by travelling across the Indian Ocean for the second time in a space of week to give the Stormers their first defeat at Newlands this season with a 26-19 victory.
Astonishing.
So how do we rate the Sharks’ chances in the final? Sure, they’ve hit a purple patch of form, but how much does all the travelling really affect this?
Tucker’s analysis, which includes Super Rugby records from the past seven years, states that playing at home gives a team a five-point advantage, while travel overseas gives you a five-point disadvantage. This study puts the Sharks at a 15-point disadvantage, considering their travel to Hamilton was their third trip across the Indian Ocean in two weeks.
‘I don’t mean 15 points in the literal sense, which many people have interpreted it.’ Tucker told keo.co.za. ‘But theoretically … in the sense that the Sharks would have to perform that much better than they would’ve if they were playing at home. There’s no absolute rating as anything can happen on the day, but this study gives a fan some view to weigh the odds.
‘Guess the score for Saturday’s match, then guess it again, but this time, try to do the hypothetical exercise of imagining that the Sharks are not away from home and that they haven’t had to travel three times in two weeks. If your score is different, then you have factored in the travel effect. How much of an effect is found in how different your answers are. The history of the tournament says it is about 15 points. Think of it as a “cost” of traveling.’
Some pundits have already written the Sharks’ chances off as the Super Rugby title decider is seen as a step too far.
Seven-time champions the Crusaders fell short in a similar scenario last season, after they beat the Sharks in the wildcard play-offs in Nelson before downing the Stormers in the semis in Cape Town. They went on to lose the final 18-13 to the Reds at Suncorp Stadium.
However, Tucker believes the Durban franchise can defy the odds once more.
‘The win over the Stormers was a major psychological boost,’ he said. ‘The Stormers were favourites as they were playing at home and had rest, while the Sharks had the setbacks of travel. But you can never discount form. The Sharks’ players are playing superb rugby individually and their combinations are gelling really well. This will give them the belief that they can do it again … one more time… in Hamilton. The Super Rugby title will be a huge motivator.
‘But while form can’t be discounted, you have to admit that travelling back and forth and such great distances will take its toll. Players have to adapt to certain time zones, then re-adapt, and re-adapt again. It’s a tiring process. [Head coach] John Plumtree will need to manage his players really well and allow them enough rest. He will also need to focus on sleeping hours and diets – those 1% factors that can make a difference.
‘In terms of preparation, Plumtree doesn’t have to develop anything new heading into the final, so he shouldn’t use training drills that will drain his players during the week. With the correct management plan, the Sharks can surprise many people.’
However, Tucker stressed that a strong start to the match will be needed.
‘Against the Stormers, the Sharks began to tired in the last 15-10 minutes of the match. That’s when the Stormers started cutting the deficit and nearly came back. Against the Chiefs, the Sharks will need to build a lead. It will be a tough task, but it would put them in a strong position.
‘At the end of the day, the Sharks will know that they only need to get through 80 minutes. They might discard certain factors, but at the end of the day, this is what sportsmen live for. They can’t avoid the challenge, they can only overcome it. In the final, they’ll try and set the tempo early on and follow through with it.’
By Gareth Duncan
190 Comments
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1 Aug 2012, 18:24 pm
Fast forward to Bok rugby
Jean will have to make similar ‘lost captain post match speeches’ if they – that will be Heyneke and crew don’t address our obvious problems at 8-9-10-12
Now those players are:
* Pierre Spies (Bulls)
* Francois Hougaard (Bulls)
* Morné Steyn (Bulls)
* Wynand Olivier (Bulls)
Those are the players who should make the attacking calls and I’m afraid it’s very one-dimensional there; we are in for a TOUGH time this year
1 Aug 2012, 18:27 pm
@ufo-94: Losersky – why are you hanging around here anyway ? Isn’t your rugby watching season over ? Didn’t the Sharks finish it off for you last weekend ? Or are you living in denial ?
1 Aug 2012, 18:29 pm
Dofsky…
you knew hey.. get over yourself…
there you go generalizing again…
us questioning your bullshitstats has got nothing to do with objectivity… it has everything to do with your dishonesty…
not you shift the blame to the commentators…? whimp… are commentators always right…? didn’t you watch the game several times…?
i would rather go with a professional stats organisation that sells its data to progressional rugby organizations and media and has a commercial interest in getting git as right as possible…
than a subjective fan like yourself…
the whole rugby world rates Etzebeth (yes, a generalization too)
all except Dofsky…
it figures…
1 Aug 2012, 18:30 pm
@Dusky-99:
You got it, Aplon too could be seen clearly reluctant to cover across
JP was like Moses spliting the Red Sea with the Stormers’ Midgets Defence opening up, Little Joe also went AWOL
1 Aug 2012, 18:32 pm
no Dofsky…
unlike you serial mutlinioc stealer/user/abuser…
i don’t disappear when my team loses…
i’ll be supporting the sharks on saturday hoping they do south africa proud…
1 Aug 2012, 18:33 pm
@Sheriff-101: Spies’s tannie bakes koeksusters and melktert for Meyer, and goes there on a Sunday for bible study. I have heard she has forgotten her false teeth there a few times.
Hougaard – Best 9 in the world. He is the only good part of this rotten area.
Steyn – Steyn’s oom owns a Toyota dealership, and Meyer can go get all the upgrades imaginable for a Hilux. Also his mom bakes Hertzog koekies and delivers them together with a few copies of the latest Afrikaans music and a bag of potpourri to Meyer’s office on a weekly basis.
Wynand – Well, Wynand has always just been that special, blonde haired, blue eyed boy. Nobody really knows what Meyer’s fascination is with Wynand is but apparently he likes him…..A LOT….
1 Aug 2012, 18:33 pm
@ufo-105: Good for you.
1 Aug 2012, 18:34 pm
sheesh… mobile keys too small
1 Aug 2012, 18:36 pm
@ufo-103: Geez…I went with the commentators….why are you so wound up ? Did your team get thrashed at home in a semi-final for the second year running or something ?
And I said I rate Etzebeth – read the whole thread (sorry I have been misspelling his name) – I am just saying he didn’t have a great game.
Jirre – moet net nie in jou broek kak nie….
1 Aug 2012, 18:38 pm
@Hondo-104: Jissus…Aplon would have kakked if he tried to tackle Pietersen coming at him full speed. He would have been knocked clean out again…..
1 Aug 2012, 18:38 pm
@ufo-108:
More like your dog paws are too large.
1 Aug 2012, 18:39 pm
@Hondo-104: I have seen a guy actually kak in his pants from a knock in a rugby match. I think Aplon has too – that’s why he didn’t try to tackle JPP.
1 Aug 2012, 18:44 pm
@Dusky-112:
1 Aug 2012, 18:48 pm
@Dusky-106:
Maori Hougaard is not the best 9 in the world; he may be the most explosive 9 but certainly not the best
That said he has all the potential to become that; I would suggest he watch footage of Justin Marshall, George Gregan and even Joost at his best
Btw I’m a Stormer and I expected them not to advance
I’m very concerned about the upcoming series against NZ and Aus; they really isolate your weaknesses and expose you
Will Heyneke begin to believe in Jantjies and Basson and give them a run or will he persist with those 4 guys?
1 Aug 2012, 18:50 pm
dusky
not wound up at all…
unlike you calling into question the objectivity of all stormers fans…
of course you’re entitled to your opinion… as are we who disagree with yours…
markyfinewanker…?
good to see i’ve got under the skin of another mutlinic-tjop…
1 Aug 2012, 18:50 pm
@sharks_lover-113: Seriously, the oke soiled himself and swallowed his tongue. He also went into the decorticate posture indicating that the concussion was very severe.
I was too scared to stick my fingers in his mouth because I have heard people with concussion can bite with immense force – enough to bite off a finger at least. It was an opposition player, but I also stopped playing and just supported his neck.
The paramedics came running on and got his tongue out his throat, after which he woke up. For one, he didn’t know where he was and afterwards when he could speak he says it felt like he slept for 8 hours and had several dreams.
That is what happens when a scrumhalf tries to tackle a lock that can run the 100m in under 12 seconds.
1 Aug 2012, 18:53 pm
@Dusky-116: ouch
1 Aug 2012, 18:55 pm
Have to dash mates, take it eezy
Dusky – are you perhaps not changing the roleplayers here; you seem to know a lot about the player who ‘soiled himself’?
1 Aug 2012, 18:56 pm
cheers sheriff…
howzit sharkslover… you getting excited for saturday…?
1 Aug 2012, 18:56 pm
1 Aug 2012, 18:58 pm
The only reason bissy got bumped out of the way is because eben was storming and bissy standing and was a bit of balance. It like newtons law…
1 Aug 2012, 18:58 pm
@Sheriff-118: I do ***** – I was there.
1 Aug 2012, 19:00 pm
@ufo-119: Hiyas boet, you well?
Yeah just very nervous and insure re our chances
1 Aug 2012, 19:03 pm
@Dusky-122: I was there too
1 Aug 2012, 19:03 pm
@Gazelle-121: Etzebeth is a big strong unit – no doubt, but his turn will come too. He also caught Bismark in exactly the right place – right on the side of the neck. Good shot !
1 Aug 2012, 19:04 pm
@Dusky
You know there is a big difference between a StormerChief and a Capesader. The latter supports the Saders.
The StormerChief publicly say one thing,like support the Sharks, but in the quiet of his mind does the opposite and shouts Chiefs this Saturday. Many of them on this site this week.
1 Aug 2012, 19:04 pm
@sharks_lover-124: Have you had a reefer ?
1 Aug 2012, 19:06 pm
always good thanks SL…
yeah… i really don’t know which way it will go…
if sharks play as they have the last few weeks they could very well take it…
chiefs a classy side too… so gonna be an awesome game imo…
pretty sure the vast majority os south africans will be cheering the sharks on… even if they don’t admit it here,,,
anyway gotta go too… mobile way too slow to use
cheers all
1 Aug 2012, 19:09 pm
@Gazelle-121:
What did the damage was the illegal right bony elbow of the attacker being gored into the largely unprotected neck of Bissy. The cervical plexus(unprotected) was shuddered hence the delayed response.
1 Aug 2012, 19:13 pm
@Dusky-110:
Your concerns are unfounded, he wouldn’t even contemplating it
:
1 Aug 2012, 19:13 pm
@Antiviral-129: Yep….he pulled a ‘Mr Spock’ on him. Connected in the perfect place.
1 Aug 2012, 19:17 pm
@ufo-128: Cheers mate, i know if stormers had won i would have been supporting them,
@Dusky-127: Nope boet
1 Aug 2012, 19:18 pm
@Antiviral-129: exactly
1 Aug 2012, 19:22 pm
Was shuddered?
Is that a medical term extrabollock?
1 Aug 2012, 19:38 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-134: By the looks of the clash, everything shuddered including Bismark’s bollocks…I must admit I got a sinking feeling when that happened. It certainly looked like the Stormers were up for the challenge.
Good on Bismark for shaking it off and carrying on though.
Etzebeth a good find for the Boks. He could very possibly become our next Bakkies Botha type enforcer.
1 Aug 2012, 19:41 pm
Moer hom Eben
1 Aug 2012, 19:43 pm
@Dawn-136: As long as you had your false teeth in when shouting that….:-) And as long as you weren’t suiping from a dooswyn papsak.
At least there was one highlight for the Stormers.
1 Aug 2012, 19:50 pm
Put your snout away Dusky.
Dawn has all her teeth.
And she drinks the kind of scotch you dream about stealing from your grampies liquor cabinet.
However I agree Bismarck did very well to shrug off Eben’s attentions.
And yes he is Bakkies 2.0
1 Aug 2012, 19:58 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-134:
I think it means that Bissie didn’t know whether it was New Year or New York.
1 Aug 2012, 20:09 pm
@IAAS-139: What it means it he needs to made sure to get his head positioned in the right place in the tackle, he normally does but on that occasion he got it wrong, ouch
1 Aug 2012, 20:21 pm
@Antiviral-126: Oh f u ck. And it’s all downhill from here. It’s the Ebola virus.
1 Aug 2012, 20:24 pm
@Sheriff-78: That’s a very good point – far better than any made by the now apparently resident rent-a-quote Ross Tucker. The Chiefs will target someone – probably Bismarck, because he is an almost guaranteed yellow card for retaliation. Plum should be making the whole team aware of this tactic and explaining that if they let the Chiefs get under their skin they will lose the game. The response should be to ignore the provocation, point it out to the ref, and bank the penalties on offer.
Also, WTF happened about the white card in the semi between the Chiefs and the Crusaders? This has been conveniently swept under the carpet by the Kiwis. Disgraceful.
1 Aug 2012, 20:31 pm
@IAAS-139:
He stripped Etzbeth of 2-3 possessions afterward, just pulled the rugby ball from Etzbeth hands with some help from Coetzee and Daniel, a real loss of face that was
Or should have been
1 Aug 2012, 20:38 pm
@kaksioek-142: It was quietly swept under the carpet, as expected really
1 Aug 2012, 20:45 pm
@Dusky-137:
Your racist remarks towards Dawn and stereotypes are both disgusting and juvenile at best. I suggest you ask her for forgiveness for your crass comments.
1 Aug 2012, 20:51 pm
@David-145: Dusky is an over inflated condom, a racist, a nic stealer, an internet tough guy and a low class BamBam (with an even lower EQ).
I doubt Dawn would want an apology from him, as it wouldn’t be sincere.
Are blogging serial killers not banned round these parts? Warned? Blocked?
1 Aug 2012, 21:02 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-146:
I just get sick and tired of these idiots who believe that racial stereotyping jokes are acceptable for some reason.
Anyway I’m off, and respects for your stand.
1 Aug 2012, 21:23 pm
@David-147:
These ‘jokes’ are beyond pathetic.
1 Aug 2012, 21:59 pm
@Antiviral-129: Tri-testes, is that you?
1 Aug 2012, 22:16 pm
Trieballe in all his testicular glory.
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