Sharks need to stifle charging Chiefs
1 Aug 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses the final and notes that the Chiefs and Sharks share attacking strengths, but not the same defensive weaknesses.
Why bother with an analysis? The Chiefs have been one of the most physical teams in the tournament, while the Sharks’ ability to produce an intense forward showing will be compromised by their taxing travelling schedule. The Sharks will be at a significant disadvantage this Saturday. Some might even call the final a mis-match.
What the stats and trends can show us is that the challenge facing the Sharks is greater than most expect. Forget the travel fatigue and the fact that this game will be staged in Hamilton – the Chiefs’ attack will be tough to repel and their defence difficult to breach.
According to ruckingoodstats.com, the Sharks are the highest-ranked team in terms of keeping the ball in play over the course of a match. They average 7.4 offloads (the second-best rate in the tournament) and break 16.9 tackles (seventh-best in the tournament) per game. These stats support the statement that they are a very dangerous attacking unit.
But then so too are the Chiefs. The men from Hamilton may not boast the possession stats of the Sharks, but when they do get their hands on the ball, they make their opportunities count.
They are the top-ranked team in terms of offloads (9.1 per match), and their robust ball carriers manage to break 20.9 tackles per match (third-best in the tournament). They are also particularly effective in the opposition’s 22, breaking 5.5 tackles per match. They are the best team in the competition in terms of linebreaks (3.3 per match), and flyhalf Aaron Cruden runs at the defence more than any other pivot.
While there may be similarities in the attacking strengths of these two finalists, their defensive records are vastly different.
The Sharks miss 20.7 tackles per match, making them the worst team in the tournament for tackles missed. It will interest the Chiefs to note that the Sharks miss 5.5 tackles on average in their own 22, and as previously mentioned, the Chiefs are a side that enjoys tackle-busting success in the red zone. The Sharks missed 23 tackles last week in the semi-final against the Stormers, so it’s not as if the total average miss-rate is an unfair reflection of their current defensive form.
By comparison, the Chiefs are one of the best defensive units in the comp. Their line speed has allowed them to stifle opponents and force them into errors. The stats substantiate this claim, as the Chiefs have effected the most charge downs and intercepts.
But the Chiefs are not without weakness. They have made more errors than any other team when kicking from hand. They have also conceded the most penalties overall, as well as the most penalties at the ruck and maul.
While the Sharks’ high tempo game has proved successful this season, they cannot hope to beat the Chiefs at their own game. The more prudent course of action is to attempt to slow the Chiefs down.
The Chiefs lineout hasn’t been that flash and the stats confirm that they are ranked third for quick throw-ins. This suggests that they enjoy playing the game at a lively pace and are not well equipped to combat a good opposition lineout.
The Sharks also have the most disciplined scrum in the tournament, and it is here where they will fancy themselves against the Chiefs. They should also attempt to draw the Chiefs into a battle at close quarters, as the Chiefs don’t have a good record when it comes to maintaining their discipline at the breakdowns and mauls (see above).
The Sharks are the more disciplined side, but will they need to improve on their breakdown performance against the Stormers. John Plumtree’s men may have won the battle at the collisions in that match, but they still conceded 10 penalties at the ruck and maul.
If they can sharpen up in that area, then they will stand a good chance of stifling the Chiefs.
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323 Comments
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1 Aug 2012, 12:42 pm
hope they stick with ludick, lambie will be slaughtered
1 Aug 2012, 12:42 pm
@Nikita-142:
Indeed.
it made my morning glorious.
1 Aug 2012, 12:43 pm
@>^..^< katman-149:
Small is the number of people who see with their eyes and think with their minds. Uncle Albert.
1 Aug 2012, 12:44 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-152:
Oh he of many words
1 Aug 2012, 12:45 pm
@Transformation-145:
no problem there.
we just make the security guards liefguards as well.
if someone drowns we’ll blame apartheid and then drain the pool.
chances are we we will run out of budget to fill them in the first place after we’ve taken our management and consultant fees in advance.
1 Aug 2012, 12:46 pm
how kak is SA hockey at the moment!!! sheesh!!! its only rugby, cricket, golf and swimming where we can compete!! I must say i have no respect for the SA womens hockey team after what their coach said a few months ago about DIE STEM …. i get this awesome feeling seeing them get moered by 6 goals in every game ….
1 Aug 2012, 12:47 pm
@ufo-143: hhmm, we can get riaan oberholzer & songezo nayo to Accelerate the selection process, obviously gideon sam will have to recuse himself from the “independent” panel.
1 Aug 2012, 12:51 pm
Le Clos and Townsend competing in the heats 200m I/M for men currently.
Le Clos comes in 3rd
1 Aug 2012, 12:52 pm
@Nikita-154:
oh she so blessed by nature.
1 Aug 2012, 12:53 pm
@Nikita-153: Ja, basically me and Albert and maybe 5 or 6 other people.
1 Aug 2012, 12:57 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-159:
Oh yes. Absence makes your fond grow harder.
1 Aug 2012, 12:57 pm
@>^..^< katman-160:
Not many of us around.
1 Aug 2012, 13:07 pm
@Transformation-157: Get juju to try out. He may be able to beat Spongebob
1 Aug 2012, 13:12 pm
@Nikita-162: Indeed, we’ve got to stick together. You do the thinking and I’ll do the looking, if that’s okay with you.
1 Aug 2012, 13:13 pm
@grant10-156:
We’ve also got a 4s in the rowing final. Silver medalists at the World Games.
1 Aug 2012, 13:14 pm
Yaaawn
1 Aug 2012, 13:15 pm
@>^..^< katman-164:
Oh so nothing has changed really. The sticking part is interesting though.
1 Aug 2012, 13:18 pm
@TooMuchRugby-166:
The secret of being a bore is to tell everything.
1 Aug 2012, 13:20 pm
@grant10-156:
Easy Grantie………………………………. easy.
They qualified to play in The Olympic Games.
And I’m sure they are doing their very very best for you,
as you sit in your armchair,
beer in hand,
pipe in your pie hole,
feet up on the coffee table,
billtong stuck in your teeth,
boerewors on the brai,
Johnny Clegg on the stereo,
All Black jersey covering your torso.
Give them a break.
They are spilling their guts for YOU.
1 Aug 2012, 13:20 pm
@David-165: And I reckon we have medal chances with Mokoena in the long jump, Viljoen in the javelin and Semenya in the 800m.
1 Aug 2012, 13:21 pm
Test complete.
No more posting too quickly problems. Happy ever afters all.
1 Aug 2012, 13:22 pm
@David-165:
I see SA is ahead of Togo on the Medal Table this year David.
Well done.
1 Aug 2012, 13:23 pm
@Slartibartfast-2:
Mark Reason ?
son of John Reason ??!
They make the AB-haters here look like cheerleaders. Hardcore 10-man Pommy knobends with too much lemon in their gins.
1 Aug 2012, 13:24 pm
New Zealand Herald
Rugby: Flawed contest has given tired Sharks a raw deal
By Wynne Gray
5:30 AM Wednesday Aug 1, 2012
Expand
The Sharks have got a really raw deal as they approach the Super 15 final with the Chiefs. Photo / Getty Images
Sympathy and South Africa are not always comfortable companions in the same rugby sentence.
However, the Sharks have got a really raw deal as they approach the Super 15 final with the Chiefs.
Approach is the right term because they have some distance to go as they bunker down in Sydney, trying to deal with jetlag, before they finally hit Hamilton for Saturday’s showdown.
When they return to Durban, the Sharks will have covered 55,000km during the playoffs taking in Johannesburg, Brisbane, Cape Town, Sydney, Hamilton and points between.
You’d be doing well to feel frisky with that itinerary on holiday without having the physical demands and mental anguish of playing three sudden-death matches, the pool and gym recovery, time spent over computer analysis and a bit on the training track.
That’s playing with an unfair deck which will always be a problem in a competition topped with playoffs.
The three-conference system is uneven and flawed. Until the 15 teams all play the rest of the field there will be inequitable results.
The Chiefs didn’t play the Stormers this season while the Sharks avoided the Crusaders.
Across the Ditch, the Reds finished sixth in the overall points ladder yet they hosted a quarter-final because they won the Australian conference. The Reds didn’t deserve to get a financial and hosting reward for finishing almost mid-table.
There’s probably little room for Sanzar to manoeuvre in the next three years of their broadcasting deal. However, if, as we hear, they can bring the competition forward another few weeks next season to accommodate the Lions tour to Australia, there should be room for round-robin matches against everyone.
The big Super 15 prizemoney and title should go to the winner of that series. Under that system the Stormers would have earned that accolade because of their consistency throughout the four months of competition when they proved they were better than all the rest.
Then Sanzar and their television cohorts could keep the status quo, insist the finals are held in one country each season, or find some hybrid model which gives travelling sides time to catch their breath.
The Sharks may overcome their obstacles to win this week and that would be a monumental effort. Whatever the result, though, the Sharks’ tortuous finals route cannot be good for the players or the series.
By Wynne Gray | Email Wynne
1 Aug 2012, 13:26 pm
@Nikita-171:
I didn’t realise it was a problem for ordinary posters Niki.
I thought it was just my “super power” typing that was the problem.
I’ve always been good with my hands.
1 Aug 2012, 13:26 pm
@Nikita-167:
I see what you just did there.
1 Aug 2012, 13:28 pm
@cane-175: You suffer from premature elocution?
1 Aug 2012, 13:31 pm
@cane-172:
Yep. We’re slowly knocking off all those insignificant Pacific Islands like Toga and New Zealand.
1 Aug 2012, 13:32 pm
These teeny tiny itty bitty coxswains….kind of how I imagine Dusky to be.
1 Aug 2012, 13:32 pm
@sharks_lover-174:
i say screw it, no concessions to the australasians. on both bringing the super series forward to accomadate their lions series or any adavantage nz may gain from a rejigged format.
that was the attitude they took with our attempted enquiry into a sixth sa super franchise.
o’neil and company gave us a ‘talk to the hand’ routine, citing the ‘sacredness’ of our binding sanzar/broadcasters contract.
1 Aug 2012, 13:33 pm
@cane-172: We be kicking it. Although I did just see two Kiwi girls win a bronze in the rowing.
1 Aug 2012, 13:34 pm
@ufo-107:
big call on Day 5
SA – with 10 persons to every 1 Kiwi, has a smaller Olympic team than NZ.
1 Aug 2012, 13:34 pm
man up saru
no changes till 2016
is the rally cry
1 Aug 2012, 13:35 pm
@>^..^< katman-177:
maybe.
1 Aug 2012, 13:39 pm
@>^..^< katman-170: LJ van Zyl might be up for something as well….Caster’s form has been woeful going into the games, but her coach says ‘wait and see’, so I hope she manages to kick some ***. Mokoena has also not been in bright form leading into the games – but he knows how to step up, let’s hope he does!
Viljoen really should grab a medal (gold or silver at least), let’s hope she does.
What about our mens relay team, the 4 X 400 – they should also be a good bet to make the final and hopefully take a medal?
1 Aug 2012, 13:43 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-185: Yes, forgot about LJ. And isn’t there another Saffa running with him?
1 Aug 2012, 13:44 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-180:
I say screw it too Bakkies.
Aus and NZ should push for 4 Teams from each Nation.
A Super 12.
Watch SA squirm then Bakkies. ……………….
1 Aug 2012, 13:47 pm
@cane-187: Just wait til the Hurricanes are the fifth team. You ain’t seen squirming yet.
1 Aug 2012, 13:47 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-183:
It’s not a format change the Aussies are asking for. Just the ability to reschedule a round of their internal conference games a week before the normal start.
I don’t think there’s much SARU can object to as it doesn’t involve any SA or NZ teams.
1 Aug 2012, 13:50 pm
@cane-187: A Super 12 is the rugby competition viewers need, but not the one we deserve – apparently.
1 Aug 2012, 13:52 pm
@>^..^< katman-186: Yes I think you are right. Can’t think of his name though. At one stage he was recording far better times than LJ as well if I remember correctly.
Undoubtedly though, Oscar P will receive one of the biggest cheers of the games when he lines up.
Sponsors dream…..
1 Aug 2012, 13:52 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-185:
lets be honest about caster’s chances. its an open secret she’s on some type hormone treatment since the resolution of that whole gender debacle and as a result has never been able to clock any significant times since.
she is there, and she is competing, considering what she has endured emotionally i think thats probably the victory in itself. i doubt anyone realistically expects her to get a medal. if she did it would be a mirace.
i’d say van zyl, viljoen (outsiders) and i havn’t a clue about the relay team, or the rowers or the doos with the good horse.
1 Aug 2012, 13:53 pm
@cane-187: cmon, theyve only ever had 3 teams that have been competitive, and now they want 6? lol..
and do you know, is Casta competing against the men or woman this olympics?
wouldnt surprise me if their swimmers borrowed the nasal spray of Chilli and Bjorn.. how does bakkies put it “filthy cheating scum” I think…
1 Aug 2012, 13:53 pm
@David-189: Another option is to just move the Lions tour to the same time as the Super Rugby play-offs. The Aussies break over this time anyway.
1 Aug 2012, 13:53 pm
@The Donkeys Egg-182:
question:
if an ostrich egg is twice the size of kiwi’s…
how big is a donkey’s..?
answer:
10 times more insecure…
sheesh dude…
is it just you or are most new zealanders as insecure about their nationality and preface everything with “are jeez but wez a tiny poppalation…”
it’s not a big call at all…
just reading the medals table on day 5…
but perhaps that is a big call for someone who doesn’t know how to read a medals table…
as you are incapable let me help you…
south africa – 11
australia – 13
new zealand – 33
that’s on day 5…
anyone with more than scrambled donkeys eggs for brains will understand this will change…
1 Aug 2012, 13:54 pm
FIX
THIS
USELESS
FCKING
WEBSITE
1 Aug 2012, 13:59 pm
@>^..^< katman-194:
1 Aug 2012, 14:00 pm
@cane-187:
bulls, sharks, cheetahs and stormers… i could live with that.
less freebies to the nz teams.
and with the conference system we’d still have one more game over any weak teams in our conference than you.
super 15, when ‘we’ asked for it was rather ‘snapped’ up by the ozzies, remember…
@David-189:
yes i know, still requires the ‘almighty broadcaster’ to make sacrifices to their ‘all important’ schedule though.
1 Aug 2012, 14:00 pm
@ufo-195:
Day 5.
NZ wee little island doing ok. But we could look alot better after the rowing is finsihed, if all goes good.
But 11th place for SA,mmmmm not bad. Mind you Borat and his #2 prostitute sister is in 7th place
1 Aug 2012, 14:04 pm
super 15, when ‘we’ asked for it was rather ‘snapped’ up by the ozzies, remember = the extra franchise request because we wanted to make space for the spears
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