Super Rugby preview – Final
3 Aug 2012
JON CARDINELLI and RYAN VREDE analyse the key match-ups and pick the winner of the title.
So the boys got a zero from two return last week, backing the Crusaders’ pedigree in the first semi and the Stormers’ defensive excellence in the second.
This week someone’s going to be right, with Vrede giving it to the hosts comfortably and JC, for the third successive year, backing the underdog. Vrede hopes that it’s third time lucky for Cardinelli. A Sharks win would be glorious, wouldn’t it?
CHIEFS vs SHARKS, HAMILTON, SATURDAY 09:35
KEO.CO.ZA SUCCESS RATE
VREDE: 88/124 (71%)
JC: 91/124 (73%)
WHY THE CHIEFS ARE FAVOURITES:
JC: The Chiefs must be feeling the pressure. They will enjoy home advantage this Saturday while the Sharks will be at a significant disadvantage given their taxing travel schedule. The expectation to win will be enormous. If Dave Rennie’s side were to lose this match, it would go down as one of the biggest chokes in sporting history. Even if the Sharks had come into this match well-rested, the Chiefs would hold the edge given the balance between their attack and defence. They may not boast many All Blacks in their pack, but the forwards have been excellent in terms of laying the platform and exhibiting the handling skills needed to play a high-tempo game. And in the halfbacks, they have the decision-making nous to hurt the best defences. The Sharks haven’t been consistent in this regard, and it won’t help that they will be forced to make further changes to their midfield now that Tim Whitehead is unavailable. Sonny Bill Williams will benefit from a strong forward platform, and take his side beyond the gainline to set up further attacking chances. On defence, the Chiefs boast a great record and watch for their terrific line speed, it should cut down the Sharks’ momentum. All in all, they’re an 80-minute side, and even if the game is in the balance in the final quarter you’d back the Chiefs to win it, as this is when the Sharks will tire.
VREDE: I had reservations about their ability to match the Crusaders’ outstanding forwards in set and general play last week, but their heavies were outstanding, sustaining their effort through 80 minutes. Their victory will be built on a performance that calls on that strength once more, with Kane Thompson, Tanerau Latimer, Craig Clarke, Ben Tameifuna, and Sona Taumalolo particularly prominent in the tight exchanges, establishing the platform that has been at the heart of their attacking potency. The Sharks’ heavies reached down to somewhere special to produce the defensive performance they did against the Stormers, but 35 000km worth of travel in the last three weeks will reflect in their capacity to resist the Chiefs, particularly in the last quarter. From there the Chiefs’ 9-10-12 combination have offered them every attacking dimension possible. Fatigue will have a telling effect on the Sharks’ attacking play as well, with their key strike runners to be blunted by the abrasive, organised and accurate Chiefs.
WHY THE SHARKS ARE CAPABLE OF DEFYING EXPECTATIONS:
JC: I called the Stormers to win in the 2010 final and the Crusaders to win in the 2011 decider (two away wins in Super Rugby finals) – so to say I’m a dreamer who believes that the fairytale ending is possible is an understatement. The Sharks have certainly given me good cause to believe a win in Hamilton is well within their power. Their victory in Cape Town last week highlighted the belief within the side, and while belief alone won’t be enough to win a Super Rugby final, it will certainly give the men from Durban a fighting chance. They are going to fade in the latter stages, so they will need to catch the Chiefs early on and build a substantial lead in the first half. What’s in their favour is their superior scrum, lineout and breakdown exponents, and so it would be wiser to force the Chiefs to play a tighter game. They also have a master tactician in flyhalf Freddie Michalak, who will play them into the right areas of the field, and take kickable opportunities be they penalties or drop goals. Finals are typically tighter than league matches, and in this environment the Sharks should prosper. But they have to take their early chances if they are going to end on the right side of the final scoreline.
VREDE’S CALL: I live in hope that the words I’m about to type next reflect how the match will unfold. If, man it’s a big if, but if the Sharks’ forwards somehow summon the energy, strength, clarity of thought and raw desperation to boss the gainline, they will force the Chiefs to revert to a cavalier approach. Then it’s game on. The Chiefs’ vulnerabilities have been exposed a couple of times when pinned in their half, and a platform that would allow Frederic Michalak, Charl McLeod and Pat Lambie to drive their side into Chiefs territory, then force infringements through pressure defence, is essential. Michalak has kicked superbly and can steadily grow a lead through his boot if given opportunities. The Sharks have also consistently shown their ability to convert scoring opportunities into tries. Their aim should be a 12-point lead going into the last 20 minutes. Then it’s down to their desire and resolve.
JC’S CALL: Sharks by 3
VREDE’S CALL: Chiefs by 12
Chiefs – 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Andrew Horrell, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Sona Taumalolo.
Subs: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Lelia Masaga
Sharks – 15 Pat Lambie, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Paul Jordaan, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Riaan Viljoen.
324 Comments
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2 Aug 2012, 11:12 am
look, it’s not loftus 2009 so it will not be a 50 point asswooping.
but in all likelyhood chiefs by 7-10.
2 Aug 2012, 11:19 am
Are the Stormers not in the final?
2 Aug 2012, 11:20 am
Just imagine we actually win this thing… Been waiting since Auckland 1996!
2 Aug 2012, 11:27 am
Sharks team i think will be playing,
15 Ludik
14 Jordaan
13 JPP (he and Jordaan to swop around when needed)
12 Lambie
11 Mvovo
10 Fred
09 Mcleod
08 Kanko
07 Marcel
06 Daniel (Capt)
05 Bresler
04 Alberts
03 Jannie
02 Bismark
01 Beast
16 Burden
17 Herbst
18 Sykes
19 Deysel
20 Botes/Odwa
21 Bosman
22 Viljoen
2 Aug 2012, 11:35 am
SL team has been announced… Lambie at FB and Jordaan at 12…
2 Aug 2012, 11:36 am
@sharks_lover-4: hahaha. You beat me to it.
Excellent team. Just hoping that Lambie and Jordaan are totally over their injuries.
2 Aug 2012, 11:36 am
@sharks_lover-4:
sharks will definately need a 5-2 forward split on the bench
2 Aug 2012, 11:37 am
@sharks_lover-4: Okay never read your starting team. Thought you had put up the team that has just been announced.
Lambie is at fb and Jordaan on at inside centre.
@THE MAULER-5: Your thoughts with Jordaan at 12 and Lambie starting at fb? Hope they both over their injuries.
2 Aug 2012, 11:37 am
Jordaan at 12 worries me…
2 Aug 2012, 11:38 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl-7: Sharks team has been announced and we have gone with a 5-2 split.
Lambie comes in at fb and Jordaan in at inside centre.
2 Aug 2012, 11:38 am
His defense is still not there yet…
2 Aug 2012, 11:39 am
02 August 2012 (11:24) – The news that The Sharks had lost Tim Whitehead to a hand fracture against the Stormers after their semi-final match, was off-set by the return from injury of Pat Lambie and Paul Jordaan who have both been included in the starting line-up for Saturday’s Final.
Sharks Coach John Plumtree has been able to consistently name the same pack over the Final Series which obviously boosts the team’s confidence when that pack is delivering such commanding performances, and they will be asked to put in one last massive effort to lay the platform for the backs in this potentially history-making game.
Jordaan at inside centre is a straight swap for the injured Whitehead, while Lambie will start at fullback with Riaan Viljoen playing off the bench, with an otherwise unchanged line-up, one that differs significantly to the team that lost by four points to the Chiefs in the pool stages.
With a near full strength side to pick from, pretty much unheard of at the climax of a long tournament, John Plumtree explains that it does add to the belief that the team can do the job on Saturday.
“There has been some continuity in selection which has been great, at this time of the competition it’s really important, but at the same time, we’ve had some injuries as well, particularly to our midfield.
“So it’s fantastic having Pat Lambie and Paul Jordaan coming back into contention. We’re a bit lucky with the backs because we’ve lost a couple through injury, so having some come back at this stage is vital. Being able to select the same pack for the past few weeks has been great.”
Bismarck du Plessis has shrugged off added meaning to this game by virtue of the fact that he is also making his 100th appearance in Super Rugby for The Sharks. Certainly, a win will make celebrating his achievement that much sweeter.
The Sharks
1. Tendai Mtawarira
2. Bismarck du Plessis *
3. Jannie du Plessis
4. Willem Alberts
5. Anton Bresler
6. Keegan Daniel ( C )
7. Marcell Coetzee
8. Ryan Kankowski
9. Charl McLeod
10. Frederic Michalak
11. Lwazi Mvovo
12. Paul Jordaan
13. JP Pietersen
14. Louis Ludik
15. Patrick Lambie
16. Craig Burden
17. Wiehahn Herbst
18. Steven Sykes
19. Jacques Botes
20. Jean Deysel
21. Meyer Bosman
22. Riaan Viljoen
* 100th Vodacom Super Rugby cap.
2 Aug 2012, 11:39 am
@THE MAULER-9: Think that is where he played at school. He is a classy player and his defence was world class for the U20 Boks against England.
2 Aug 2012, 11:40 am
Team is kept the same with just Jordaan at 12 and Lambie at FB… So continuity…
2 Aug 2012, 11:42 am
@FawltyRich-3:
Don’t forget Queensland in 1994… heart breaking for a 9 year old!
and that Lions won it in 1993 and lost in the final in 1995!
2 Aug 2012, 11:42 am
Puma yeah He played there at Grey but against the Reds he slipt a few but at least the cover defense was good… SBW is someone who needs to be watched very closely… But Jordaan on attack is a very dangerous player… Great step…
2 Aug 2012, 11:42 am
@THE MAULER-14: If Lambie and Jordaan can play the full 80min we okay buddy. Just worried that either of them could come off with their injury niggles.
2 Aug 2012, 11:45 am
@THE MAULER-16: If Jordaan’s hammie does not play up I feel he will be great there.
2 Aug 2012, 11:46 am
Go Bissie. Make your 100th SuperRugby cap for the Sharks a special one to be remembered forever. Bring back that cup.
2 Aug 2012, 11:48 am
Yeah Puma but I think we have the right back up on the bench… Bosman can cover almost everywhere and Viljoen can do 10 and anywhere in the back 3
2 Aug 2012, 11:52 am
Interesting that both Deysel and Botes are on the bench.
2 Aug 2012, 11:54 am
David I think it will help to bring those 2 on with fresh legs in the last 20… Could help…
2 Aug 2012, 11:55 am
do it sharks
do it for justice
do it for rugby lovers the world over
2 Aug 2012, 11:55 am
@THE MAULER-20: Yes for sure both cover almost everywhere. We just don’t have cover for sh. Excellent bench though.
Jeez now excited for Saturday. Wish it was here now…………hahaha.
Going to be a tough but we can do it. If not still very proud of our boys.
2 Aug 2012, 11:56 am
@David-21: They were on the bench last week as well David. We need the fresh legs for later. Excellent bench really.
2 Aug 2012, 12:00 pm
Proteas lose the toss.
No Swann.
Grass on the deck.
Come on boys.
2 Aug 2012, 12:01 pm
@THE MAULER-22:
That’s what I thought, as well. I just wonder who they’ll replace. It looks like Coetzee and Keegan, unless Deysel is also there as lock cover.
2 Aug 2012, 12:04 pm
Good team, shows the game they intend playing, part of me wonders though? will this team start? I think the midfield will be slightly weaker in defense, but far quicker on the attack, will the midfield swop around during play?
SO many questions
2 Aug 2012, 12:06 pm
@Puma-13: you’re comparing defending against SBW to scrambling after English U20 boys? hhahahahaha
tenuous!
2 Aug 2012, 12:08 pm
K-A-K nervous… Dig the team… Hope we play 80min of hardcore, inspired rugby!
Kingspark 2007 was gut-wrenching. This weekend will make up for all the pain.
Black & White – nothing else matters.
Sharks forever!
2 Aug 2012, 12:09 pm
@Transformation-29: SBW who????? hehe.
I think Jordaan will do just fine bud. He is a classy player.
2 Aug 2012, 12:11 pm
@Puma-31: i know he is a good player but this is a stern test!
2 Aug 2012, 12:11 pm
Looking good – bit surprised about Jordaan at 12 rather than 13, but glad to have him on the field. Sharks by a whisker! Just please don’t let them try to run down the clock in front of their own tryline like they did against the Stormers – the Chiefs know how to score tries!
2 Aug 2012, 12:13 pm
@kaksioek-33: Dont forget players can swop around during defense! and also who says this team will be the one running onto the park??
2 Aug 2012, 12:14 pm
@sharks_lover-28: We never had much choice. Either Jordaan or Bosman. Though Bosman’s defence has been very good in the last few games he has come on to play.
I think we will be okay bro. We have a very good bench as well.
One positive is Jordaan and Lambie should be fresh. Both have not played a lot recently.
2 Aug 2012, 12:15 pm
David… Sykes is the main lock cover and Deysel will cover lock and Loose forward… So yeah thats quite spot on…
2 Aug 2012, 12:15 pm
@Transformation-32: I know. We had no choice really. Either Jordaan, Lambie our Bosman there.
Who would you have had from those players?
2 Aug 2012, 12:25 pm
@Puma-37: Look no doubt Plum is taking a risk ,and going full out
Thus the bench cover as is
2 Aug 2012, 12:34 pm
@Puma-37: lambie at 12 if his ankle is 100% – solid defence and a steady decision making, can straighten line and take on defenders.
jordaan & jpp to me are not dependable defenders – even though jpp made enormous spot tackles vs reds…on attack the 2 of them might rip sbw and horrell a new one
2 Aug 2012, 12:35 pm
@Transformation-39: I actually agree transie
I would of had lambie 12 and Jorddan 13 with JPP 14, 13 and 14 can swop around where needed
2 Aug 2012, 12:38 pm
@Transformation-39: If you see post#4 that i posted just before the actual was, you will see i have Lambie @ 12, reckon it would be far more defensively sound
And like i said JOrdaan and JP can change around at will
2 Aug 2012, 12:45 pm
@Transformation-39: I would have gone with Lambie too bud. Good on defence.
We just have to see how it goes. Jordaan is a excellent player. We just have to hope it works. Pity Timmy got injured.
2 Aug 2012, 12:54 pm
Interesting selections. Plum is certainly going the ballsy, attacking route, because that is probably the most exciting backline the Sharks could put out for this one. Jordaan has slipped a few tackles this season, so SBW may have a crack at the 10-12 channel (re-phrase that – will definitely have many cracks at it!). However apparently 12 is easier to defend that 13 as it’s more front on and narrower channels, and I’ve got no doubt that Jordaan and Michalak’s will give it every last drop of effort they’ve got. If the Sharks pack can dominate and sustain an 80 minute effort, I think they’ll take it.
2 Aug 2012, 12:55 pm
@THE MAULER-9: More than Bosman at 12? Now that worries me.
2 Aug 2012, 13:01 pm
kiwis get their first gold medal… wooooohoooooooooo
2 Aug 2012, 13:03 pm
@SA rugby is k@k-45: Who the fark did they pay to get that right?
2 Aug 2012, 13:04 pm
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-46: Craig Joubert
2 Aug 2012, 13:06 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-26: Poms more than happy to drop catches and make dead ball catches
Going along nicely for now….
2 Aug 2012, 13:11 pm
Frikken’ nervous! I’m thinking Plum will pull another rabbit out the hat and this won’t be the run-on team! I would’ve preferred Lambie at 12! Still think we can do this if we pitch up with our top game on the day!
2 Aug 2012, 13:16 pm
SA win gold in the rowing too… well done..
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