Super Rugby preview – Final
3 Aug 2012
JON CARDINELLI and RYAN VREDE analyse the key match-ups and pick the winner of the title.
So the boys got a zero from two return last week, backing the Crusaders’ pedigree in the first semi and the Stormers’ defensive excellence in the second.
This week someone’s going to be right, with Vrede giving it to the hosts comfortably and JC, for the third successive year, backing the underdog. Vrede hopes that it’s third time lucky for Cardinelli. A Sharks win would be glorious, wouldn’t it?
CHIEFS vs SHARKS, HAMILTON, SATURDAY 09:35
KEO.CO.ZA SUCCESS RATE
VREDE: 88/124 (71%)
JC: 91/124 (73%)
WHY THE CHIEFS ARE FAVOURITES:
JC: The Chiefs must be feeling the pressure. They will enjoy home advantage this Saturday while the Sharks will be at a significant disadvantage given their taxing travel schedule. The expectation to win will be enormous. If Dave Rennie’s side were to lose this match, it would go down as one of the biggest chokes in sporting history. Even if the Sharks had come into this match well-rested, the Chiefs would hold the edge given the balance between their attack and defence. They may not boast many All Blacks in their pack, but the forwards have been excellent in terms of laying the platform and exhibiting the handling skills needed to play a high-tempo game. And in the halfbacks, they have the decision-making nous to hurt the best defences. The Sharks haven’t been consistent in this regard, and it won’t help that they will be forced to make further changes to their midfield now that Tim Whitehead is unavailable. Sonny Bill Williams will benefit from a strong forward platform, and take his side beyond the gainline to set up further attacking chances. On defence, the Chiefs boast a great record and watch for their terrific line speed, it should cut down the Sharks’ momentum. All in all, they’re an 80-minute side, and even if the game is in the balance in the final quarter you’d back the Chiefs to win it, as this is when the Sharks will tire.
VREDE: I had reservations about their ability to match the Crusaders’ outstanding forwards in set and general play last week, but their heavies were outstanding, sustaining their effort through 80 minutes. Their victory will be built on a performance that calls on that strength once more, with Kane Thompson, Tanerau Latimer, Craig Clarke, Ben Tameifuna, and Sona Taumalolo particularly prominent in the tight exchanges, establishing the platform that has been at the heart of their attacking potency. The Sharks’ heavies reached down to somewhere special to produce the defensive performance they did against the Stormers, but 35 000km worth of travel in the last three weeks will reflect in their capacity to resist the Chiefs, particularly in the last quarter. From there the Chiefs’ 9-10-12 combination have offered them every attacking dimension possible. Fatigue will have a telling effect on the Sharks’ attacking play as well, with their key strike runners to be blunted by the abrasive, organised and accurate Chiefs.
WHY THE SHARKS ARE CAPABLE OF DEFYING EXPECTATIONS:
JC: I called the Stormers to win in the 2010 final and the Crusaders to win in the 2011 decider (two away wins in Super Rugby finals) – so to say I’m a dreamer who believes that the fairytale ending is possible is an understatement. The Sharks have certainly given me good cause to believe a win in Hamilton is well within their power. Their victory in Cape Town last week highlighted the belief within the side, and while belief alone won’t be enough to win a Super Rugby final, it will certainly give the men from Durban a fighting chance. They are going to fade in the latter stages, so they will need to catch the Chiefs early on and build a substantial lead in the first half. What’s in their favour is their superior scrum, lineout and breakdown exponents, and so it would be wiser to force the Chiefs to play a tighter game. They also have a master tactician in flyhalf Freddie Michalak, who will play them into the right areas of the field, and take kickable opportunities be they penalties or drop goals. Finals are typically tighter than league matches, and in this environment the Sharks should prosper. But they have to take their early chances if they are going to end on the right side of the final scoreline.
VREDE’S CALL: I live in hope that the words I’m about to type next reflect how the match will unfold. If, man it’s a big if, but if the Sharks’ forwards somehow summon the energy, strength, clarity of thought and raw desperation to boss the gainline, they will force the Chiefs to revert to a cavalier approach. Then it’s game on. The Chiefs’ vulnerabilities have been exposed a couple of times when pinned in their half, and a platform that would allow Frederic Michalak, Charl McLeod and Pat Lambie to drive their side into Chiefs territory, then force infringements through pressure defence, is essential. Michalak has kicked superbly and can steadily grow a lead through his boot if given opportunities. The Sharks have also consistently shown their ability to convert scoring opportunities into tries. Their aim should be a 12-point lead going into the last 20 minutes. Then it’s down to their desire and resolve.
JC’S CALL: Sharks by 3
VREDE’S CALL: Chiefs by 12
Chiefs – 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Andrew Horrell, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Sona Taumalolo.
Subs: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Lelia Masaga
Sharks – 15 Pat Lambie, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Paul Jordaan, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Riaan Viljoen.
324 Comments
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2 Aug 2012, 13:23 pm
@SA rugby is k@k-47:
who won?
2 Aug 2012, 13:23 pm
Come on Sharks. Conquer the forces of darkness.
2 Aug 2012, 13:24 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-51: double sculls for us, mens fours for you guys… both teams winning from lane 5, both with great finishes to take it…
2 Aug 2012, 13:26 pm
Cheers Pops. Putting things in rows is big over here.
2 Aug 2012, 13:27 pm
Well done kiwi rowers.
2 Aug 2012, 13:27 pm
The atrocious travel itinerary will kill the Sharks, and then there is their friend Steve Walsh
Tough luck, the Sharks are 3:7 to win.
2 Aug 2012, 13:28 pm
@stormer in a teacup-54: both races were fantastic to watch, both teams were fourth with less then 500 metres left…
2 Aug 2012, 13:29 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-51: Unfuckingreal
The male model and his crew!
Kiwis won the double ball.
Brilliant for both countries!!!!
2 Aug 2012, 13:29 pm
@Hondo-56: walsh owes us one the dimwit.
he was on the bottle for years with guilt over 2007,no use going down that road again.
2 Aug 2012, 13:31 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-58: are you saying you find this rowing chap attractive?
or is “male model” a snide jibe at how the guy came into this world looking?
i have no clue of who any of them are btw.
2 Aug 2012, 13:32 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-51:
Mens lightweight fours.
Unbelievable finish.
Came from nowhere to snatch it at the end. Comentator couldnt even believe it, he kept on refering to us as the Australians because of the similiar colours.
2 Aug 2012, 13:33 pm
Please stop whining about travel. A flight is neither physically demanding nor mentally or emotionally taxing. Time zone issues are very manageable.
Home advantage matters. Lack of practice time matters. Flying in the night before would be problematic. Not managing the teams diet and sleeping regimes would matter. But travel itself is really not that big a deal.
Having flown hundreds of thousands of miles in my career, including multiple occasions when I have done two trans-Atlantic round-trips in a week, and multiple occasions when I have done back to back red-eye flights with a day of work in between, I can state with assurance that if you treat flights as an opportunity to rest, sleep, read, catch a movie, and generally recharge, then long haul flights are as much a blessing as a curse. If you use the flight time badly then that’s different. But we know that professional sportsmen will stay off the alcohol, get sleep, use the time to study opponents and plan tactics etc. Don’t we?
Let’s assume that the teams are equally fresh and motivated, that the Chiefs have home advantage and that the Sharks will not have as much time as they would like for physical run-outs. Then lets talk about the rugby.
But please stop the bleating about how many miles teams have traveled.
2 Aug 2012, 13:36 pm
@John Galt-61:
@SA rugby is k@k-53:
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-58:
Nicely done!
And the poms are staring down the double barrels at headingley.
2 Aug 2012, 13:37 pm
@rangerman-59:
The scoundrel allowed the Stormers to get away with a lot, thought the Sharks would have objected him for the Final?!
2 Aug 2012, 13:40 pm
Congratulations SA.
Gold in the Lightweight Fours.
A fantastic race.
The rowing has been fabulous to watch.
2 Aug 2012, 13:42 pm
@rangerman-60: No man. The commentators in London called them that during the qualifying rounds.
They getting their medals now.
Sizwe Ndlovu, Matthew Brittain, John Smith and James Thompson – they be our heroes
Awesome. This rowing has been most enjoyable, all of it.
@the artist formerly known as gunther-63: They be dead balling like I would….
2 Aug 2012, 13:44 pm
@lockforward.com-62:
– they can’t catch proper sleep even in the 1st Class, too tall. If the flight hit few turbulences they can’t read or study either
Cabon low compression at 39,000ft is detrimental to athletes,
They are all big boys – excluded Aplon and De Jongh
Please,,,
2 Aug 2012, 13:44 pm
I’m still p # ssed off with today’s commentator. As SA started pulling forward, he called us AUSFUCKINGSTRALIA…
2 Aug 2012, 13:48 pm
@lockforward.com-62:
“Please stop whining about travel. …………………………….”
I take it,
when your Jetliner lands,
you don’t have to play a game of Professional Rugby Lockie.
Travel is a huge factor Lockie.
2 Aug 2012, 13:52 pm
@lockforward.com-62: Pardon me, but whothefuckareyouagain?
2 Aug 2012, 13:54 pm
Farr Canal ………………………….the 50 metres freestyle doesn’t take long,
does it.
2 Aug 2012, 13:55 pm
@cane-65: More daylight between us and Togo.
2 Aug 2012, 13:56 pm
JC: ” If Dave Rennie’s side were to lose this match, it would go down as one of the biggest chokes in sporting history”, and same article “Sharks by 3″.
Taken a drinks break between paragraphs, have we?
2 Aug 2012, 13:57 pm
@foxtail-73: Ryan wouldn’t back the Sharks so JC had to (that must have burnt a bit).
2 Aug 2012, 14:00 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-68:
The commentating on other sports was at times also disapointing.
The worst was during the cycling road race when the commentator said that team GB can still chase down the breakaway group as they were only 59 seconds behind – the next moment the 1,2 km to go sign came up- we all know Wiggins is brilliant but ……..at the pace they were going he would not have caught them even if he was driving a Ferrari.
And I thought Huey Blades was bad.
2 Aug 2012, 14:02 pm
how many golds have the keewees got?
2 Aug 2012, 14:05 pm
@stormer in a teacup-72:
And Tonga.
And NZ.
2 Aug 2012, 14:05 pm
@kaksioek-70:
2 Aug 2012, 14:06 pm
@lockforward.com-62:
Jet lag, medically referred to as desynchronosis, is a physiological condition which results from alterations to the body’s circadian rhythms resulting from rapid long-distance transmeridian (east–west or west–east) travel on a jet aircraft. It is classified as one of the circadian rhythm sleep disorders.
The condition of jet lag may last several days until one is fully adjusted to the new time zone, and a recovery rate of one day per time zone crossed is a suggested guideline. The issue of jet lag is especially pronounced for airline pilots, crew, and frequent travelers. Airlines have regulations aimed at combating pilot fatigue caused by jet lag.
2 Aug 2012, 14:07 pm
@lockforward.com-62:
Jet lag is a chronobiological-related problem[1], similar to issues often induced by shift work. When traveling across a number of time zones, the body clock will be out of synchronization with the destination time, as it experiences daylight and darkness contrary to the rhythms to which it has grown accustomed: the body’s natural pattern is upset, as the rhythms that dictate times for eating, sleeping, hormone regulation and body temperature variations no longer correspond to the environment nor to each other in some cases. To the degree that the body cannot immediately realign these rhythms, it is jet lagged.
The speed at which the body adjusts to the new schedule depends on the individual; some people may require several days to adjust to a new time zone, while others experience little disruption. Crossing one or two time zones does not typically cause jet lag.
The condition is not linked to the length of flight, but to the trans-meridian (west–east) distance traveled. A ten-hour flight from Europe to southern Africa does not cause jet lag, as travel is primarily north–south. A five-hour flight from the east to the west coast of the United States may well result in jet lag.
2 Aug 2012, 14:08 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-76:
One Gold ……………Two Bronze.
We have one medal for every 1.35 million of our population.
Have you fhukkkkers got 34.62 medals yet????
2 Aug 2012, 14:08 pm
@lockforward.com-62:
The symptoms of jet lag can be quite varied, depending on the amount of time zone alteration, time of day and individual differences. They may include the following:[2]
Headaches
Fatigue, irregular sleep patterns, insomnia
Disorientation, grogginess, irritability
Mild depression
Constipation or diarrhea
2 Aug 2012, 14:09 pm
@lockforward.com-62:
Direction of travel
There seems to be some evidence that for most people, traveling west to east is more disruptive. This may be because most people have a circadian period which is a bit longer than 24 hours, making it easier to stay up later than to get up earlier.[8]
It may also be that flights to the east are more likely to require people to stay awake more than one full night to adjust to the local time zone.
2 Aug 2012, 14:11 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-68: Yeah the @sshole
2 Aug 2012, 14:12 pm
@cane-81:
really?
i think you need to stfu donny…
this is a top ten club only
2 Aug 2012, 14:13 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-66:
I told you we had a chance at gold. Most Saffas didn’t even know we had a rowing team at the Olympics, let alone a world class one.
2 Aug 2012, 14:15 pm
@Robzim-75:
You are right, there have been some absolute pearlers! I didn’t see or hear that one. But I must be honest, ‘Wiggold’ is quite refreshing for a cyclist. Adds something to the sport, almost quirky.
Best commentating at the moment coming from the miserable Nasser H
whatadoos-heputsalltheresttoshame
2 Aug 2012, 14:16 pm
@cane-71:
Indeed Caner.
wham bam
Something you should empathise with.
2 Aug 2012, 14:16 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-68:
or better yet:
arsefuckingstralia mate…!
2 Aug 2012, 14:17 pm
And we did it with one of Hondos “quotas”.
2 Aug 2012, 14:17 pm
@David-86: Brilliant. I see that they did perform very well at some regatta before the Games?
2 Aug 2012, 14:20 pm
@cane-81: Even Idi Amin didn’t have 34.62 (self awarded) medals….
2 Aug 2012, 14:20 pm
@David-86:
Awesome win David.
And Rowers are always great “sportsmen”,
in the very best meaning of the word.
The medal ceremonies show us all how great they are.
2 Aug 2012, 14:22 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-85: We are now 8th on the medal table
2 Aug 2012, 14:23 pm
@David-90:
unbelievable !
2 Aug 2012, 14:24 pm
Anyway Oke Dokies,
enjoy the rowing,
cause
you ain’t gunna enjoy the Rugby.
2 Aug 2012, 14:25 pm
Did you guys see that stat about the NZ coaches?
2 Aug 2012, 14:26 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-94:
With Casta and The Bionic Man to come.
(is the Guy with the springs competing?)
2 Aug 2012, 14:27 pm
So how many potential medal winners to come?
Le Clos – 100 butterfly?
Viljoen – Javelin?
Caster – 800m?
Longjump?
Bicycle?
???????????
2 Aug 2012, 14:29 pm
@cane-93:
Awesome win David…………………………
I think that should read :
Oarsome win …………………….
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