Super Rugby preview – Final
3 Aug 2012
JON CARDINELLI and RYAN VREDE analyse the key match-ups and pick the winner of the title.
So the boys got a zero from two return last week, backing the Crusaders’ pedigree in the first semi and the Stormers’ defensive excellence in the second.
This week someone’s going to be right, with Vrede giving it to the hosts comfortably and JC, for the third successive year, backing the underdog. Vrede hopes that it’s third time lucky for Cardinelli. A Sharks win would be glorious, wouldn’t it?
CHIEFS vs SHARKS, HAMILTON, SATURDAY 09:35
KEO.CO.ZA SUCCESS RATE
VREDE: 88/124 (71%)
JC: 91/124 (73%)
WHY THE CHIEFS ARE FAVOURITES:
JC: The Chiefs must be feeling the pressure. They will enjoy home advantage this Saturday while the Sharks will be at a significant disadvantage given their taxing travel schedule. The expectation to win will be enormous. If Dave Rennie’s side were to lose this match, it would go down as one of the biggest chokes in sporting history. Even if the Sharks had come into this match well-rested, the Chiefs would hold the edge given the balance between their attack and defence. They may not boast many All Blacks in their pack, but the forwards have been excellent in terms of laying the platform and exhibiting the handling skills needed to play a high-tempo game. And in the halfbacks, they have the decision-making nous to hurt the best defences. The Sharks haven’t been consistent in this regard, and it won’t help that they will be forced to make further changes to their midfield now that Tim Whitehead is unavailable. Sonny Bill Williams will benefit from a strong forward platform, and take his side beyond the gainline to set up further attacking chances. On defence, the Chiefs boast a great record and watch for their terrific line speed, it should cut down the Sharks’ momentum. All in all, they’re an 80-minute side, and even if the game is in the balance in the final quarter you’d back the Chiefs to win it, as this is when the Sharks will tire.
VREDE: I had reservations about their ability to match the Crusaders’ outstanding forwards in set and general play last week, but their heavies were outstanding, sustaining their effort through 80 minutes. Their victory will be built on a performance that calls on that strength once more, with Kane Thompson, Tanerau Latimer, Craig Clarke, Ben Tameifuna, and Sona Taumalolo particularly prominent in the tight exchanges, establishing the platform that has been at the heart of their attacking potency. The Sharks’ heavies reached down to somewhere special to produce the defensive performance they did against the Stormers, but 35 000km worth of travel in the last three weeks will reflect in their capacity to resist the Chiefs, particularly in the last quarter. From there the Chiefs’ 9-10-12 combination have offered them every attacking dimension possible. Fatigue will have a telling effect on the Sharks’ attacking play as well, with their key strike runners to be blunted by the abrasive, organised and accurate Chiefs.
WHY THE SHARKS ARE CAPABLE OF DEFYING EXPECTATIONS:
JC: I called the Stormers to win in the 2010 final and the Crusaders to win in the 2011 decider (two away wins in Super Rugby finals) – so to say I’m a dreamer who believes that the fairytale ending is possible is an understatement. The Sharks have certainly given me good cause to believe a win in Hamilton is well within their power. Their victory in Cape Town last week highlighted the belief within the side, and while belief alone won’t be enough to win a Super Rugby final, it will certainly give the men from Durban a fighting chance. They are going to fade in the latter stages, so they will need to catch the Chiefs early on and build a substantial lead in the first half. What’s in their favour is their superior scrum, lineout and breakdown exponents, and so it would be wiser to force the Chiefs to play a tighter game. They also have a master tactician in flyhalf Freddie Michalak, who will play them into the right areas of the field, and take kickable opportunities be they penalties or drop goals. Finals are typically tighter than league matches, and in this environment the Sharks should prosper. But they have to take their early chances if they are going to end on the right side of the final scoreline.
VREDE’S CALL: I live in hope that the words I’m about to type next reflect how the match will unfold. If, man it’s a big if, but if the Sharks’ forwards somehow summon the energy, strength, clarity of thought and raw desperation to boss the gainline, they will force the Chiefs to revert to a cavalier approach. Then it’s game on. The Chiefs’ vulnerabilities have been exposed a couple of times when pinned in their half, and a platform that would allow Frederic Michalak, Charl McLeod and Pat Lambie to drive their side into Chiefs territory, then force infringements through pressure defence, is essential. Michalak has kicked superbly and can steadily grow a lead through his boot if given opportunities. The Sharks have also consistently shown their ability to convert scoring opportunities into tries. Their aim should be a 12-point lead going into the last 20 minutes. Then it’s down to their desire and resolve.
JC’S CALL: Sharks by 3
VREDE’S CALL: Chiefs by 12
Chiefs – 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Andrew Horrell, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Sona Taumalolo.
Subs: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Lelia Masaga
Sharks – 15 Pat Lambie, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Paul Jordaan, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Riaan Viljoen.
324 Comments
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2 Aug 2012, 14:30 pm
@cane-98: Blades
2 Aug 2012, 14:30 pm
@cane-98:
If Bionic man puts Q20 on his legs is it the same as doping?
2 Aug 2012, 14:31 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-87:
He does indeed-He looks more like the bass guitar player of the Who during the 60′s than a professional cyclist with 7 olympic medals and a tour de France title behind his name. A month ago not many people outside cycling knew about him and now some call him the greatest british sportsman of all time who will soon be knighted. Times are surely changin
2 Aug 2012, 14:31 pm
@cane-98: Oscar P? Yes he is. He won’t shape in the 400 metres, but he will probably run in the 4 X 400m qualifiers as well. Oscar P is the poster child for the Athletics meet, being the 1st disabled athlete to compete on the track. (We also have the honour of having had the 1st disabled athlete to compete in the water at the regular games…Natalie du Toit with the open water swim in Beijing)
Caster’s form has been nowhere coming into the games – but for her, I hope she manages something special.
2 Aug 2012, 14:32 pm
@David-90:
Watch him extending congrats to Matthew Brittain, John Smith and James Thompson only.
Sizwe Ndlovu will be cited as the reason why they “only” won by a split second. If not for him, they could’ve won by 20m.
2 Aug 2012, 14:33 pm
I saw them punting our four rowers for a medal this morning on TV…
to be honest, I thought people were just getting caught up in the whole swimming emotions thing…
apologies to the guys for doubting…
well farking done…!!!
made us proud all over again…
2 Aug 2012, 14:34 pm
@cane-98:
yes, oscar pistorius
that would be doubly sweet
a handicapped saffa smokes the field
sweet joy
2 Aug 2012, 14:35 pm
Whatsup Pops.
Feeling better today.
2 Aug 2012, 14:35 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-91:
They won silver at the World Championships. Even then the Brits thought they had this in the bag before the race.
2 Aug 2012, 14:35 pm
Most golds for SA in an Olympics?
Apparently 4 in Stockholm in 1912.
It’s on.
2 Aug 2012, 14:37 pm
apparently oscar has joined chad’s dad ‘cookie monster’… as the media darlings of the games…
not my words… saw something on the beeb to that effect…
2 Aug 2012, 14:38 pm
@Mr Black-99: Khotso Mokoena, LJ Van Zyl, mens 4 x 400 relay (long shot, but if they get to the final who knows), Our tri-athlete has a shot apparently, le Clos, Roland Schoeman (long shot)but if he gets through the semi’s tonight and makes the final, who knows in the men’s 50 m freestyle long shot though.
And the ones you mentioned.
Who else?
2 Aug 2012, 14:39 pm
@ufo-111: Oscar is the Olympic dream. The Poster child. Wait until he takes his mark in the heats.
2 Aug 2012, 14:39 pm
and as gunther says…
smith and co are abusing the poms on the cricket pitch…
the poms have now taken only two wickets in 216 overs of bowling at South Africa…!!
2 Aug 2012, 14:40 pm
@ufo-106:
South Africa has always been very good at swimming (Heynes, Neetling etc..), Surfing (Tomson, Smith, Paarman etc), Lifesaving (the Chalupskies etc), Surfski paddling and canoeing (Macgregor, Mocke etc) and Spearfishing (Rangerman) .
Must be something in the water
2 Aug 2012, 14:40 pm
@cane-100:
Yup, and a great win for your guys as well!
2 Aug 2012, 14:41 pm
@David-109: Don’t the Brits (well the English to be honest) ALWAYS have things in the bag before a race/test/international?
2 Wickets in 216 overs sums up ‘having it in the bag’ English style
2 Aug 2012, 14:42 pm
@Robzim-115:
And don’t forget our world record breaking Karen Muir at 14.
2 Aug 2012, 14:42 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-94:
shouldnt it be joint 7th by the way?
kazakstan’s got the same amount as us, 3 golds?
2 Aug 2012, 14:43 pm
You are posting comments too quickly. Slow down.
2 Aug 2012, 14:43 pm
@ufo-114:
Poms looking ver sorry for themselves.
Lot of teapots out there.
2 Aug 2012, 14:45 pm
@Robzim-115: spearfishing lol
2 Aug 2012, 14:45 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-113:
saw someone chatting to michael johnson about oscar…
was trying to get johnson to slate oscar because johnson had said he disagrees with the decision to let oscar run…
but johnson says that … no way… oscar is a personal friend of his the decisions been made and come race time he’ll be cheering for his bud… (or words to that effect)
oscar gotta be doing a lot of things right to count michael johnson among his friends…
2 Aug 2012, 14:47 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-121:
good to hear…!!
i’m reduced to following on cricinfo…
pietersen looking good…? i’m chuffed for the guy…
2 Aug 2012, 14:48 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-117: hehehehe too funny
2 Aug 2012, 14:48 pm
@Robzim-115:
Rangerman is a KZN hero for sure…..
I’ll give him gold for supporting the Sharks honour on KEO.
2 Aug 2012, 14:49 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-112:
Is the BMX guy there?
He was one of the favourites in Beijing before he fell during the race.
2 Aug 2012, 14:50 pm
@ufo-124: it seems like i have co-pilots
Wallaby wishes Waratahs want Wayne Smith
DAVID LONG
Last updated 12:59 02/08/2012
Wallaby great Tim Horan has called for the Waratahs to chase Wayne Smith as they search for a new coach.
The Waratahs had an abysmal season under Michael Foley this year, winning just four games and losing 12.
Foley has jumped ship and will coach the Western Force next season and Horan believes the man the Waratahs should target for their 2013 campaign is Smith.
“New South Wales Waratahs are without a coach and they need look no further than the Super Rugby final in Hamilton on Saturday for their target,” Horan said in his column for Sydney’s Daily Telegraph.
“Following the resignation of Michael Foley this week, the first phone call Tahs bosses should make is to Smith.
“The respected Kiwi coach is poised to win a Super Rugby title with the Chiefs less than 10 months after helping the All Blacks win Rugby World Cup 2011.
“On the basis of those two achievements – let alone a strong career CV – it’s clear Smith has all the attributes to get the best out of a Waratahs outfit with plenty of talent, but no confidence.
“Smith is contracted to the NZRU for another season, but has a get-out clause that comes into effect next week.
“He turned down a role under England coach Stuart Lancaster earlier in the year, saying he wanted to stay closer to home and family. Sydney is a lot closer to New Zealand than London.
“NSW should be bold with this opportunity, get on the phone and offer to buy out Smith’s contract if necessary.
“The corporates in Sydney could surely help put together a big financial package, with a pad at Bondi thrown in and a flexible attitude about Smith flying home when he needs to.
“Coaches are the best recruiters, and Smith could lure talent in the right positions to Sydney.”
But while Horan is keen for the Waratahs to chase Smith, it’s probable that Smith would turn down any approach.
Smith would have been the perfect man to take over the Blues for next year, but declined to put his name forward, preferring to continue his work with the Chiefs.
For how long Smith is happy to work as an assistant coach before wanting to take a head coaching job again is uncertain, but publicly he has given no indication of wanting to move away from Hamilton.
2 Aug 2012, 14:51 pm
@Robzim-115:
yeah i know rob… just the shots they showed of our four rowers called to mind something like ‘cool rowings’… so need to apologise for doubting them…
btw rob… when out on a double ski for a couple of hours with dawid last week… happy to say he is a helluva nice dude…
2 Aug 2012, 14:51 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-121: They don’t even have Swann to swan in and do some sort of holding/repair job. They have also effectively bowled Petersen into finding some form.
This has to be the stuff stand up comedians live for.
Deadball/sHussainmustbehowlinginside.
2 Aug 2012, 14:54 pm
@cane-100: bakkies, we should have another gold tomorrow, Bond/Murray in the rowing pairs, they have been killing it, and then we may yet get a third tomorrow with Drysdale in the single sculls..
Hey Dawn, I was feeling great yesterday too..
2 Aug 2012, 14:55 pm
@Transformation-128:
hehehe…
good for you…!!
need i remind you that it’s only because JK is already taken…
actually would be a great signing for the warrawarras…
he and JK could then compete directly and show if they have the right stuff…
i think they both do…
2 Aug 2012, 14:55 pm
@ufo-123:
The snarky british newspapers tried to trap Oscar with some leading questions in his Presser.
He be having none of it.
@ufo-124:
Ja slightly shaky start but he is looking very nice now.
Just need to keep it tight for the next hour or so and then start to unleash.
the more sun gets on that pitch the better.
2 Aug 2012, 14:58 pm
@Transformation-128:
he is one kiwi i do respect.
way more instrumental than gh imo.
truth be told he needs to ‘have’ a wayne barnes type accident
or a suzie q experience.. but a long lasting one..
2 Aug 2012, 14:58 pm
@cane-81: Medals? We pull the sh it out of the ground.
2 Aug 2012, 14:59 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-130:
I think we ruffled Swann’s feathers.
2 Aug 2012, 14:59 pm
@poppa69-131:
well done to nz, pops.
we’ll do our best to push you all the way
2 Aug 2012, 15:01 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-133:
yeah saw bits of that… thought he handled it all with aplomb and great humour…
would be good if smith n pietersen (the new saffa weapon) each get hundreds to get the test off to a great day 1…
2 Aug 2012, 15:01 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-137: cheers, good to see the SH super powers beating the poms on their home turf
2 Aug 2012, 15:04 pm
has anyone seen Hondo? not sure his ticker will handle the fact that the SA fours were truly representative of the rainbow nation… congrats once again to them, they rowed a brilliant race..
out for now..
2 Aug 2012, 15:06 pm
Gold medals per million population Rank Country Gold Silver Bronze Gold/Million
1 Slovenia 1 0 1 0.5008
2 Lithuania 1 0 0 0.2836
3 New Zealand 1 0 2 0.2311
4 Georgia 1 0 0 0.2188
5 Hungary 2 1 1 0.2008
6 Kazakhstan 3 0 0 0.1712
7 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 4 0 1 0.1627
8 Republic of Korea 6 2 4 0.1228
9 France 5 3 5 0.0762
10 South Africa 3 0 0 0.0615
We win…………………………………………………………Again.
2 Aug 2012, 15:06 pm
@poppa69-140:
cheers popps..
2 Aug 2012, 15:07 pm
well actually we are not winning……………………………………..but we are doing well enough.
2 Aug 2012, 15:09 pm
@ufo-123: Most of the objectors seem to have more of an issue with him possibly injuring other athletes with his blades, than anything else. Apparently in some lanes, there is more of a chance of this happening.
@the artist formerly known as gunther-136: Bald eagle now?
@nama1-127: Yes, I forgot about him. He was Wchamp as well, so he should be there. SASCOC’s site for some reason won’t load the SA team, so I can’t see if his name is there, Nhlapo.
I forgot we have a mountain bike medal possible there as well, not sure what his name is though…
2 Aug 2012, 15:11 pm
burrey stander
2 Aug 2012, 15:11 pm
@ufo-138:
biff is starting to pile on the pain.
strauss is looking like someone has just jizzed on his cornflakes.
2 Aug 2012, 15:12 pm
The Keo Poll has only 39% of The Keo Faithful predicting a Chiefy win.
Fools.
Loyal Fools.
But dreamers just the same.
2 Aug 2012, 15:13 pm
@cane-141: Slovenia not too slovenly.
2 Aug 2012, 15:13 pm
@Robzim-115:
you left out gavin rudolph from pe who became world champ before shaun tomson’s time
2 Aug 2012, 15:14 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-146: sies!
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