Super Rugby preview – Final
3 Aug 2012
JON CARDINELLI and RYAN VREDE analyse the key match-ups and pick the winner of the title.
So the boys got a zero from two return last week, backing the Crusaders’ pedigree in the first semi and the Stormers’ defensive excellence in the second.
This week someone’s going to be right, with Vrede giving it to the hosts comfortably and JC, for the third successive year, backing the underdog. Vrede hopes that it’s third time lucky for Cardinelli. A Sharks win would be glorious, wouldn’t it?
CHIEFS vs SHARKS, HAMILTON, SATURDAY 09:35
KEO.CO.ZA SUCCESS RATE
VREDE: 88/124 (71%)
JC: 91/124 (73%)
WHY THE CHIEFS ARE FAVOURITES:
JC: The Chiefs must be feeling the pressure. They will enjoy home advantage this Saturday while the Sharks will be at a significant disadvantage given their taxing travel schedule. The expectation to win will be enormous. If Dave Rennie’s side were to lose this match, it would go down as one of the biggest chokes in sporting history. Even if the Sharks had come into this match well-rested, the Chiefs would hold the edge given the balance between their attack and defence. They may not boast many All Blacks in their pack, but the forwards have been excellent in terms of laying the platform and exhibiting the handling skills needed to play a high-tempo game. And in the halfbacks, they have the decision-making nous to hurt the best defences. The Sharks haven’t been consistent in this regard, and it won’t help that they will be forced to make further changes to their midfield now that Tim Whitehead is unavailable. Sonny Bill Williams will benefit from a strong forward platform, and take his side beyond the gainline to set up further attacking chances. On defence, the Chiefs boast a great record and watch for their terrific line speed, it should cut down the Sharks’ momentum. All in all, they’re an 80-minute side, and even if the game is in the balance in the final quarter you’d back the Chiefs to win it, as this is when the Sharks will tire.
VREDE: I had reservations about their ability to match the Crusaders’ outstanding forwards in set and general play last week, but their heavies were outstanding, sustaining their effort through 80 minutes. Their victory will be built on a performance that calls on that strength once more, with Kane Thompson, Tanerau Latimer, Craig Clarke, Ben Tameifuna, and Sona Taumalolo particularly prominent in the tight exchanges, establishing the platform that has been at the heart of their attacking potency. The Sharks’ heavies reached down to somewhere special to produce the defensive performance they did against the Stormers, but 35 000km worth of travel in the last three weeks will reflect in their capacity to resist the Chiefs, particularly in the last quarter. From there the Chiefs’ 9-10-12 combination have offered them every attacking dimension possible. Fatigue will have a telling effect on the Sharks’ attacking play as well, with their key strike runners to be blunted by the abrasive, organised and accurate Chiefs.
WHY THE SHARKS ARE CAPABLE OF DEFYING EXPECTATIONS:
JC: I called the Stormers to win in the 2010 final and the Crusaders to win in the 2011 decider (two away wins in Super Rugby finals) – so to say I’m a dreamer who believes that the fairytale ending is possible is an understatement. The Sharks have certainly given me good cause to believe a win in Hamilton is well within their power. Their victory in Cape Town last week highlighted the belief within the side, and while belief alone won’t be enough to win a Super Rugby final, it will certainly give the men from Durban a fighting chance. They are going to fade in the latter stages, so they will need to catch the Chiefs early on and build a substantial lead in the first half. What’s in their favour is their superior scrum, lineout and breakdown exponents, and so it would be wiser to force the Chiefs to play a tighter game. They also have a master tactician in flyhalf Freddie Michalak, who will play them into the right areas of the field, and take kickable opportunities be they penalties or drop goals. Finals are typically tighter than league matches, and in this environment the Sharks should prosper. But they have to take their early chances if they are going to end on the right side of the final scoreline.
VREDE’S CALL: I live in hope that the words I’m about to type next reflect how the match will unfold. If, man it’s a big if, but if the Sharks’ forwards somehow summon the energy, strength, clarity of thought and raw desperation to boss the gainline, they will force the Chiefs to revert to a cavalier approach. Then it’s game on. The Chiefs’ vulnerabilities have been exposed a couple of times when pinned in their half, and a platform that would allow Frederic Michalak, Charl McLeod and Pat Lambie to drive their side into Chiefs territory, then force infringements through pressure defence, is essential. Michalak has kicked superbly and can steadily grow a lead through his boot if given opportunities. The Sharks have also consistently shown their ability to convert scoring opportunities into tries. Their aim should be a 12-point lead going into the last 20 minutes. Then it’s down to their desire and resolve.
JC’S CALL: Sharks by 3
VREDE’S CALL: Chiefs by 12
Chiefs – 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Andrew Horrell, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Sona Taumalolo.
Subs: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Lelia Masaga
Sharks – 15 Pat Lambie, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Paul Jordaan, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Riaan Viljoen.
324 Comments
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2 Aug 2012, 15:15 pm
@charo-145: Also good medal Chances are Murray in tri-athlon and LJ Van Zyl 400m
2 Aug 2012, 15:16 pm
@charo-145:
he’s really good…
never knew he was part of the team…
great stuff…
@the artist formerly known as gunther-146:
good… he was a bit slow in the morning session…
they must just keep dishing it out… focused… cold… painful…!
2 Aug 2012, 15:16 pm
If either opener is bowled or caught, expect England to review the decision. Anything to keep Amla and Kallis from coming in.
2 Aug 2012, 15:18 pm
@charo-145: That’s mountain bike man. Thanks.
@the artist formerly known as gunther-146: Commentary rather entertaining. “Now is the time to change the pace, and start thinking of a spinner, but England don’t have a spinner out there….”
2 Aug 2012, 15:18 pm
@Mr Black-153:
2 Aug 2012, 15:19 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-154:
2 Aug 2012, 15:20 pm
@Mr Black-153:
2 Aug 2012, 15:20 pm
@Transformation-150:
that’s just what he’s thinking.
he must be sick of staring at Smith’s helmet.
2 Aug 2012, 15:21 pm
@Transformation-156: Gotta love it. They still going on about it. Chaos in the cricketing icons commentary box
2 Aug 2012, 15:21 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-154:
Indeed.
They’ve taken a gamble and are looking rather foolish.
But it was one that they needed to take.
2 Aug 2012, 15:28 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-159:
who was the guy who kept referring to his fantasy form lineup in the first test?
he sounded shell shocked and drunk.
2 Aug 2012, 15:30 pm
Well done to our rowers picking up gold. Brilliant.
2 Aug 2012, 15:31 pm
fucksticks.
2 Aug 2012, 15:31 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-161:
geoffrey…
2 Aug 2012, 15:31 pm
@Mr Black-153:
2 Aug 2012, 15:33 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-161:
@ufo-164:
sorry … it was bumble wasn’t it…
2 Aug 2012, 15:37 pm
@ufo-164:
fark!
is that geoffrey boycott?
he must a little soft in the head?
2 Aug 2012, 15:37 pm
or dead by now?
boycott?
2 Aug 2012, 15:37 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-167:
my mistake…
it was lloyd…
2 Aug 2012, 15:40 pm
@ufo-166:
ah yes, thats right.
his behaviour made me pity him.
like my granddad going senile, very sad and humbling to see and experience.
or was he just drunk?
2 Aug 2012, 15:41 pm
I’ve got
Lets see
2 Aug 2012, 15:45 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-170:
Galileo…
Some Bumble-isms…
England have nothing to lose here, apart from this test match – David Lloyd
There’s another ball from James Anderson that can only be described as buffet bowling. – David Lloyd
He’ll have had net after net after net, but he hasn’t played cricket. – David Lloyd
This pitch is as flat as a dodo. – David Lloyd
2 Aug 2012, 15:45 pm
I just heard that the Lions have sacked Carlos Spencer and Wayne Taylor! WTF? That is one buggered union. They are trying to save money getting rid of the coaching team and came up with a really weak “team complaints” story to get rid of Mitch. Bunch of a-holes in charge there I am afraid. Can’t see lions rugby getting better with that sort of nonsense.
2 Aug 2012, 15:46 pm
@Atlas-171:
farkin’ smilies…!!
2 Aug 2012, 15:46 pm
@cane-147:
suddenly everyone’s a sharkie
people need common enemies to keep them agreeable
thats why you have us
we keep your rugby strong…
you’re welcome…
2 Aug 2012, 15:47 pm
Amla run out… What a shame, he could have made another big score, he was looking very good. Alviro Peterson bettermake some proper runs after that.
2 Aug 2012, 15:48 pm
@ufo-172:
flat as a dodo hehehe
ok, so that’s just his personality then?
2 Aug 2012, 15:52 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-177:
yeah…
i actually enjoy his commentary… he keeps it interesting… has tons of knowledge but has his own way of putting it across… very unique…
2 Aug 2012, 15:53 pm
cricinfo has wickets tumbling…
alma gone…!
whassup gunther…?
2 Aug 2012, 15:56 pm
amla…
2 Aug 2012, 15:57 pm
@ufo-174:
2 Aug 2012, 15:57 pm
I can see all the most useless coaches on the planet lining up for Lions jobs. Backline coach, conditioning coach and head coach positions all available. Captain too. That’s the end of their Curry Cup hopes, and any hopes that they will improve next year. I can’t imagine any coach worth his salt wanting the job, hardly a step towards future glory…
2 Aug 2012, 15:58 pm
farking slow site this…………again
2 Aug 2012, 15:59 pm
wtf?
self-destruct.
the curse of the protea strikes.
2 Aug 2012, 15:59 pm
forgot that one
anything else?
2 Aug 2012, 16:05 pm
@mako-182: Maybe they can borrow the Kiwi unknown from the Kings for a year. He’ll just be sitting on his hands otherwise
2 Aug 2012, 16:07 pm
@Atlas-185:
2 Aug 2012, 16:15 pm
It always amazes me how well South African sportsmen manage to do, despite the terrible sports administration in this country. Incompetence, greed and corruption has crept into every facet of life in SA, including sports administration. The individual talent of our top sports men and women must be immense to overcome this and still compete on the world stage, and do as well as they do.
2 Aug 2012, 16:18 pm
Head says Chiefs, heart says Sharks. I think for most South Africans there is no denying that the Sharks are swimming against a very heavy current in this one.
Its only a few very bitter mountain moffie supporters that can’t bring themselves to support the South African side in this clash.
2 Aug 2012, 16:19 pm
@mako-188: that said, there are casualties, like the hockey, football, athletics – to a large extent.
2 Aug 2012, 16:23 pm
I don’t know how to do any smilies apart from the smiling one…*would roll eyes if I knew how*
@wait for it, wait for it…-177: @ufo-178: I enjoy David Lloyd’s words of wisdom. He sometimes gets so horribly lost in his own thoughts and world it is better than ANY movie listening to how it all unfolds. I think he is helluva popular the world over, and he always sounds as though he has just receieved “the best news ever”
2 Aug 2012, 16:24 pm
@Transformation-190: Sure, I guess the point I am trying to make is; Imagine how good our sport would be if it was properly run? Remove all the gravy train passengers and replace them with people passionat about sport, with the best interests of SA sports at heart and we would be flying!! The interesting thing is that these useless officials are not from any one race either, we have leeches from every demographic grabbing what they can and allowing their incompetence to taint our various sports disciplines.
2 Aug 2012, 16:27 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-191:
colon roll colon.
2 Aug 2012, 16:28 pm
No feck man. Has someone unleashed that Boeremag jobbie’s can of whoopass on the Proteas.
2 Aug 2012, 16:29 pm
@Dusky-189: Any South African not supporting the Sharks this weekend is a disgrace. Half the Springbok side is playing. Yes the Sharks have a huge mountain to climb and a win has to be viewed as an unlikely result. But are we the kind of people who give up before we even play? I don’t think so!!! Anyone who lets provincialism get in the way of national pride is a sad, sad chop.
2 Aug 2012, 16:29 pm
@mako-192: yup!
2 Aug 2012, 16:35 pm
@mako-195: Oh well, there are a few sad, sad chops here then. There are still people here that are so embittered by last weeks game that they have openly demonstrated support for the Chiefs.
I must say, this is more prolific amongst Stormers fans so I have a tendency to say that had the semi-final in Cape Town gone another way, I probably would be supporting the Chiefs this weekend as well.
South African rugby supporters are heavily provincialistic. They dont want to see any other union excel. The Bulls fans were all bragging that they ended above the Sharks on the log – yet they failed to realize that they did this at the expense of their chances in the qualifying playoff. It’s bonehead mentality.
In general though, at least Bulls fans wish the Sharks well in the final.
2 Aug 2012, 16:35 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-191:
yip
i’ve changed my opinion of him now, thank you.
i thought he was going potty but its just his personality.
a quirky monster ?
2 Aug 2012, 16:38 pm
fuckpants.
2 Aug 2012, 16:40 pm
No matter how much of an enemy your oppostion province is, they are still South Africans. When any team from another country plays any South African team it should be a no brainer that we support the SA side. I can’t undestand how even the most bitter Stormers supporter would prefer to see the trophy in NZ than in KZN??? Maybe they are just saying so to get a reaction from their ‘traditional enemy’, secretly they will be wearing Sharks undies on the day…
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