Super Rugby preview – Final
3 Aug 2012
JON CARDINELLI and RYAN VREDE analyse the key match-ups and pick the winner of the title.
So the boys got a zero from two return last week, backing the Crusaders’ pedigree in the first semi and the Stormers’ defensive excellence in the second.
This week someone’s going to be right, with Vrede giving it to the hosts comfortably and JC, for the third successive year, backing the underdog. Vrede hopes that it’s third time lucky for Cardinelli. A Sharks win would be glorious, wouldn’t it?
CHIEFS vs SHARKS, HAMILTON, SATURDAY 09:35
KEO.CO.ZA SUCCESS RATE
VREDE: 88/124 (71%)
JC: 91/124 (73%)
WHY THE CHIEFS ARE FAVOURITES:
JC: The Chiefs must be feeling the pressure. They will enjoy home advantage this Saturday while the Sharks will be at a significant disadvantage given their taxing travel schedule. The expectation to win will be enormous. If Dave Rennie’s side were to lose this match, it would go down as one of the biggest chokes in sporting history. Even if the Sharks had come into this match well-rested, the Chiefs would hold the edge given the balance between their attack and defence. They may not boast many All Blacks in their pack, but the forwards have been excellent in terms of laying the platform and exhibiting the handling skills needed to play a high-tempo game. And in the halfbacks, they have the decision-making nous to hurt the best defences. The Sharks haven’t been consistent in this regard, and it won’t help that they will be forced to make further changes to their midfield now that Tim Whitehead is unavailable. Sonny Bill Williams will benefit from a strong forward platform, and take his side beyond the gainline to set up further attacking chances. On defence, the Chiefs boast a great record and watch for their terrific line speed, it should cut down the Sharks’ momentum. All in all, they’re an 80-minute side, and even if the game is in the balance in the final quarter you’d back the Chiefs to win it, as this is when the Sharks will tire.
VREDE: I had reservations about their ability to match the Crusaders’ outstanding forwards in set and general play last week, but their heavies were outstanding, sustaining their effort through 80 minutes. Their victory will be built on a performance that calls on that strength once more, with Kane Thompson, Tanerau Latimer, Craig Clarke, Ben Tameifuna, and Sona Taumalolo particularly prominent in the tight exchanges, establishing the platform that has been at the heart of their attacking potency. The Sharks’ heavies reached down to somewhere special to produce the defensive performance they did against the Stormers, but 35 000km worth of travel in the last three weeks will reflect in their capacity to resist the Chiefs, particularly in the last quarter. From there the Chiefs’ 9-10-12 combination have offered them every attacking dimension possible. Fatigue will have a telling effect on the Sharks’ attacking play as well, with their key strike runners to be blunted by the abrasive, organised and accurate Chiefs.
WHY THE SHARKS ARE CAPABLE OF DEFYING EXPECTATIONS:
JC: I called the Stormers to win in the 2010 final and the Crusaders to win in the 2011 decider (two away wins in Super Rugby finals) – so to say I’m a dreamer who believes that the fairytale ending is possible is an understatement. The Sharks have certainly given me good cause to believe a win in Hamilton is well within their power. Their victory in Cape Town last week highlighted the belief within the side, and while belief alone won’t be enough to win a Super Rugby final, it will certainly give the men from Durban a fighting chance. They are going to fade in the latter stages, so they will need to catch the Chiefs early on and build a substantial lead in the first half. What’s in their favour is their superior scrum, lineout and breakdown exponents, and so it would be wiser to force the Chiefs to play a tighter game. They also have a master tactician in flyhalf Freddie Michalak, who will play them into the right areas of the field, and take kickable opportunities be they penalties or drop goals. Finals are typically tighter than league matches, and in this environment the Sharks should prosper. But they have to take their early chances if they are going to end on the right side of the final scoreline.
VREDE’S CALL: I live in hope that the words I’m about to type next reflect how the match will unfold. If, man it’s a big if, but if the Sharks’ forwards somehow summon the energy, strength, clarity of thought and raw desperation to boss the gainline, they will force the Chiefs to revert to a cavalier approach. Then it’s game on. The Chiefs’ vulnerabilities have been exposed a couple of times when pinned in their half, and a platform that would allow Frederic Michalak, Charl McLeod and Pat Lambie to drive their side into Chiefs territory, then force infringements through pressure defence, is essential. Michalak has kicked superbly and can steadily grow a lead through his boot if given opportunities. The Sharks have also consistently shown their ability to convert scoring opportunities into tries. Their aim should be a 12-point lead going into the last 20 minutes. Then it’s down to their desire and resolve.
JC’S CALL: Sharks by 3
VREDE’S CALL: Chiefs by 12
Chiefs – 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Andrew Horrell, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Sona Taumalolo.
Subs: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Lelia Masaga
Sharks – 15 Pat Lambie, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Paul Jordaan, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (c), 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Steven Sykes, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Riaan Viljoen.
324 Comments
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2 Aug 2012, 20:06 pm
@Dusky-247:
You mean you’re unemployed.
2 Aug 2012, 20:18 pm
When did dusky get so onbeskof!
2 Aug 2012, 20:33 pm
@Dawn-252: Was he ever not onbeskof? Just asking
because I don’t know how he ‘used to be’.
What I do know is this: His letter to Dr Phil would go something like this:
Doc,
My light stick doesn’t work and my back is full of pimples. Is it because I’m full of shite,
or because I’m full of roids?
Yours in crinkly bollocks,
MMA fighter, Bitter and twisted ex-pat but loyal Tjarks fan and your friend,
Mervin ‘Dusky’ Simmons.
2 Aug 2012, 20:36 pm
Where is skop to sort these sharkshytes out
2 Aug 2012, 20:40 pm
@Dawn-254: Yissis, is that what Skop’s function is? I have always wondered…Getting him to come and sort out the Sharks supporters is a bit like setting your Chihauhua on intruders in your home. Lots of noise, but no sense could possibly come of it.
2 Aug 2012, 20:44 pm
Not all sharks supporters just a crazy few
2 Aug 2012, 20:47 pm
@Dawn-254: Like most internet heavyweight champs
of the world, they can only fight when they are guaranteed a win
They become as confused as Lambie when asked what his best position is, if anyone arrives to challenge the sh y te they spit out. Confusion leads to fear, and fear leads to Dusky wanting to duel at dawn.
Much easier for them to just pull a Copperfield and blow off.
2 Aug 2012, 21:00 pm
@IAAS-251: In your fantasies it seems I am.
2 Aug 2012, 21:01 pm
So, where is the Keo Olympic thread?
All this rugby angst is not good for the Saffa karma!
Seems funny how the ‘haters’ come together to support the Boks when they join up against us Poms!!
2 Aug 2012, 21:02 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-257: Only South African team left in the competition. If you ask me, it seems its the choking Stormers fans that should ‘blow off’. But, with your obvious obsession with the Sharks – including their name in your nic and all – its hardly surprising you still hang around.
2 Aug 2012, 21:03 pm
@Dawn-252: Ag ou Dawn….just dont drink on your balcony – that’s all
2 Aug 2012, 21:07 pm
@Dusky-258: And I have a starring role in yours it seems…Stealing my nic means I have tickled your fancy (even though it’s wrinkly ***see above***) and crept into your conscience. (Please let me out though, because it really is dark and dingy there, and I’m fed up of listening to techno tunes on loop, and your rather weak ‘thought of the day’: ((and in your case it really IS one thought a day)).
Release me…
2 Aug 2012, 21:10 pm
@Dusky-258:
You’re making your name tottie now. Oops, you already have. Call it a night.
@carol-259:
Watching swimming closely. Waiting for le Clos in 100 fly. Schoeman made it to 50m freestyle final.
Congrats to poms so far.
2 Aug 2012, 21:11 pm
@Dusky-261:
You’re offsides. Take that back.
Sucker fool.
2 Aug 2012, 21:11 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-262: We tried to release you lot last weekend, but you are clinging on for dear life despite your team being dumped from the competition like a smelly rag – you are like cling ons – the dingle berries of this blog.
You should ‘release’ your obsession with the Sharks though.
Either that or dispose of that choker jersey, give in to your obsession and support the Sharks.
2 Aug 2012, 21:12 pm
Stormers girls doing a lot of talking about blowing tonight. Is it that time of the month? Blaaswerk week.
2 Aug 2012, 21:13 pm
@IAAS-264: What ? You didn’t know that Dawn is a bit of a petrol rag ? Personally, I dont mind a dop either – but I would stay off the balcony while inebriated.
2 Aug 2012, 21:15 pm
@mako-266: Stormer girls struggle to get lucky in Cape Town, considering that 80% of the male population are tail gunners.
2 Aug 2012, 21:21 pm
@Dusky-268: Yep, I get the impression that the ladies in Cape Town need to especially good at Blaaswerk, they have a lot of competition from the men. They have to be better at it than their husband’s buddies, or he will never come home from the pub. May be worth a trip down there, just to give the girls something to practise on…
2 Aug 2012, 21:23 pm
@Dusky-268:
@mako-269:
That’s too much information ladies.
Looks like the local CT boys have impressed you hugely.
Feel free to take one home.
2 Aug 2012, 21:23 pm
@mako-269: Trips to Cape Town are great for single guys. Although you literally have to watch your rear, the ladies are so desperate for some straight men its like a free for all. Very easy.
If you single and straight, Cape Town is a great place to live. You will have them knocking at your door (unfortunately some men as well).
2 Aug 2012, 21:25 pm
@IAAS-270: No thanks. Capetonians must stay in Cape Town, we dont want any of their chokeitis rubbing off on our rugby team thanks.
2 Aug 2012, 21:25 pm
Phelps is a legend.
2 Aug 2012, 21:27 pm
Rainy and cold in Svalbard tonight…..time to get out the Vodka or perhaps some of that local home made stuff I bought….
2 Aug 2012, 21:30 pm
@Dusky-267: All class, all in. You insult yourself, not Dawn, with these little ‘duskisisms’ that only those on your intellectual level could find remotely funny, ENTER MAKO stage left….
@Dusky-272: Oh I’m sorry. I didn’t realise the Sharks had won the S15. I blinked and they won it on their 4th attempt? 5th Attempt? That sounds like a whole lotta choking to me….cough splutter cough. But, anyways, you have won now, so that is in the past. Who was man of the match? I’m guessing you were?
2 Aug 2012, 21:32 pm
@Dusky-274: Add about 50 sedatives, 20 Codeine tablets, two Panados for luck, and we might just have a winner…..
2 Aug 2012, 21:33 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-275:
Dusky is a legend in his own lunch time. A mouse amongst men.
2 Aug 2012, 21:34 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-276:
And goodnight nurse.
2 Aug 2012, 21:35 pm
@Dusky-271: Sounds like you have to jam a fork up your backside handle first if you’re going to be wandering around Greenmarket Square. Any Stormers supporter that manages to take you unawares from behind is going to get a sore tip. Could be worth the discomfort. I heard that there are 2 ladies for every guy in CT, and then half the guys are ***, so you can have their 2 as well. Hell, it would be like shooting fish in a barrel, or beating the Stormers at Super Rugby. Too Easy!
2 Aug 2012, 21:38 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-275: What you taking about ? I wasn’t claiming the trophy – I was just claiming the fact that the Sharks disposed of your useless team of chokers like a used piece of toilet paper. That’s all.
Oh and of course your obsession with the Sharks.
2 Aug 2012, 21:38 pm
@IAAS-278: Amazing Grace…..
2 Aug 2012, 21:39 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-276: All that sexual frustration is making you cranky. Must be a long dry season between Sharks games at Newlands when our players and supporters can come and help you girls out.
2 Aug 2012, 21:42 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-276: You trying to drug me ? I have heard that males visiting Cape Town must be careful of this. Or else you will wake up with a painful bum.
2 Aug 2012, 21:44 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-281:
That would have whistled over Dusky’s head…
2 Aug 2012, 21:44 pm
@Dusky-280: Is your intellect genuinely this stunted, or are you trying to impress Mako? What don’t you understand Rain Man?
At this stage, the Sharks have won nothing. They have played in many finals and never won. If they lose again on Saturday, they will hold the record for final chokes. (And the coachless, captainless, playerless Lions will tell you they OWN you…in the same way you are telling the Stormers this now)
So, by your own logic if the Sharks lose on Saturday, they will have choked – again AND: the Lions own them…..
See logic can be your friend if you ask nicely.
2 Aug 2012, 21:46 pm
Hey, I see that G a y is a *** word on this site. That’s a bit lame, must be to stop the stormer supporters using it as a dating site.
2 Aug 2012, 21:47 pm
@IAAS-284: woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh
(I’m tempted to throw an impromptu IQ test out here…..just for sh y tes and giggles. Dusky and Mako will sh y te and we will giggle….guaranteed)
2 Aug 2012, 21:50 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-285: Yes, yes and yes….but that wasn’t what I was saying. I was simply inquiring as to why you hang around, the word ‘Sharks’ emblazoned in your nic when your team was wiped off and flushed like kak from a bum hole last weekend ?
You linger like a bad poep.
Ag its ok if the Lions own us, as long as we own the Stormers, which we do. 2 games in a row. Stormers are the Sharks bunnies.
2 Aug 2012, 21:50 pm
@Dusky-283: Read the recipe again. If that’s your recipe for date r a pe, I’m guessing you are into necrophilia.
2 Aug 2012, 21:51 pm
@mako-286: The Stormers have their own dating site. Go to iamastormer.co.za
I hear they are changing their website address to iamachoker.co.za
2 Aug 2012, 21:52 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-285: Rather have played in 5 finals and choked than played in 1 and choked. Losing on saturday couldn’t possibly be seen as a choke for the Sharks. Nobody gives them a chance already, due to their travel schedule, so we have a cast iron excuse should we lose. If we win there will be some choking accusations at the Chiefs though. All this choking talk from you Cape Ladies must be because you are thinking about blaaswerk again. You poor things.
2 Aug 2012, 21:55 pm
@Dusky-288: This is not a reality rugby site Rain Man. No-one is voted off because their team loses a game…..
I will linger as long as I want thank you, and it’s rather rude to expect me to exit gracefully just because I own you in interweb beatdowns.
2 Aug 2012, 21:57 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged by Mad Eye Productions.-292: You are still not getting it. I am not asking you to exit at all – stay as long as you like. I am just saying it surprises me, considering your team was thrown to the floor and stood on like a stompie by the Sharks (the team you mention in your nic).
Thats all.
2 Aug 2012, 21:59 pm
@mako-291:
For fucksakes are you and Dusky both imbecilic?
Mad Eye and myself have said that we are behind the Sharks this weekend. The Sharks won. The Stormers lost. We’re over it.
The Sharks still have to win on Saturday. Geddit ladies?
We don’t do flik-flaks though. That’s not our style.
2 Aug 2012, 21:59 pm
I must be honest, the stormers don’t choke much. I guess that is because they have had so much practise at deep throating that their gag reflex has been trained. Once in 17 years is a record any poof would be proud of!
2 Aug 2012, 22:00 pm
After that gold medal who can doubt that Phelps is the greatest swimmer ever?
2 Aug 2012, 22:02 pm
@mako-291: That’s true. You can only choke when you are expected to win.
WP was expected to win the Currie Cup final in 2010 and what happened ? CHOKE !
Stormers were expected to win the Super 14 in 2010 and what happened ? CHOKE !
Stormers were expected to advance to the finals considering they had a home semi-final in 2011 and what happened ? CHOKE !
Stormers were expected to beat a jet lagged Sharks team considering they had a home final, and won the conference trophy for a second year running and what happened ? CHOKE !
Sharks cannot possibly be expectant of a win this weekend. Therefore, it would hardly qualify as a choke the magnitude of losing a home semi-final two years running.
BTW How many home semi-finals have been lost in Super rugby history ? I think the Stormers broke a record !
2 Aug 2012, 22:02 pm
@IAAS-294: If you are behind us I just want to check that my fork is in place…. Just kidding. That is awesome, it is great to have a SA side in the finals. I would have supported the Stormers if they were there.
2 Aug 2012, 22:04 pm
@IAAS-294:
Hear, hear…. Blimey, it can get a bit repetitive can’t it?
2 Aug 2012, 22:05 pm
@IAAS-294: Are you really over it ? Your buddy has been using the Sharks in his nic since the beginning of the season to display some kind of ‘protest’ against the Sharks and advertising his disapproval of them (or something like that).
I doubt he is over seeing his team get projectile vomited out of the competition like they were last weekend.
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