Goosen best of the lot
8 Aug 2012
A statistical study of this year’s Super Rugby goal-kickers saw Johan Goosen rated as the best performer.
The young flyhalf only featured in half of this year’s tournament as he suffered a serious shoulder injury during the Cheetahs’ 36-33 defeat to the Highlanders in April. However, he was the outstanding goal kicker of the tournament when fit, topping the overall individual point-scorer list and impressing with his distance and accuracy from all over the field.
And according to the overall stats, he was the best performer from the kicking tee.
Goosen boasted an 86% success rate (48 from 56 attempts). He also had more challenging kicks at goal than the other regular goal-kickers. The player also did well on attack and was solid on defence in general play.
This form caught the attention of Springbok head coach Heyneke Meyer. While Goosen was set to feature for the Baby Boks in the Junior World Championship in June, it’s believed that Meyer was keen on introducing the 20-year-old to Test rugby during the series against England. However, injury ruled Goosen out.
The Cheetahs playmaker will return during the Currie Cup in September. If he remains match fit and rediscovers the form he displayed during Super Rugby, we could see Goosen feature for the Boks during the end-of-year tour to Europe.
The major concern from these statistics is the struggle of Bok flyhalf incumbent Morne Steyn. He had the worst success rate among the South African goal-kickers with only 76% (84 from 110 attempts).
His goal kicking was also a concern during the Boks’ June Test series against England. He only converted 13 kicks from 23 attempts over the three matches, which is a success rate of 57%. This included a poor performance in the third Test, a 14-14 stalemate in PE, which saw him miss four goal attempts.
Meyer has come out in Steyn’s defence in a recent interview with SA Rugby magazine, saying: ‘I feel for Morné because in the past three years he has played every single Test and Super Rugby game he can. He hasn’t missed one training session in that time either. I had a sense it would take its toll eventually and I think what we saw was mental fatigue. He’ll get his form back.
‘Nobody’s place is cemented in the national team, but I think there are mitigating factors regarding Morné. He needs a mental break.’
Super Rugby goal kicker rankings (Click on graphic)
Meanwhile, Stormers pivot Peter Grant was ranked third overall according to the study, even though he boasted the highest success rate of 93% (50 from 54 attempts). However, it was noted that he had easier kicks compared to the other goal kickers on the top 10 list (the difficulty rating is determined by three factors – angle, distance and altitude).
Sharks fullback Pat Lambie was the next best South African in sixth place, with a 80% success rate (52 from 65 attempts). Elton Jantjies was ranked 14th overall, with a success rate of 86% (49 from 57 attempts). But like Grant, the Lions flyhalf enjoyed easier shots at goal.
From a foreign point of view, All Blacks flyhalf Dan Carter struggled overall, but picked up form during the June Test window and the latter part of Super Rugby. Reds centre Mike Harris was rated as Australia’s best goal-kicker, with Rebels fullback James O’Connor also impressing before being sidelined with injury.
By Gareth Duncan
Study done by statistician Jurie Nel. Model accepted for publication in the South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and Recreation (University of Stellenbosch). Contact Nel via jurien@assupol.co.za.
82 Comments
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8 Aug 2012, 11:52 am
Bog standard excuse for Laurie Mains?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=rjRBsl385Og&NR=1
8 Aug 2012, 11:56 am
So statistically, the best goal kicking statistics is not necessarily the best statistical measurement to view goal kickers statistics?
That about right?
8 Aug 2012, 11:59 am
Goosen is gonna be a legend in SA rugby along with Etzebeth , Marcel , Kolisi just to name a few. I wish there were some bright up and coming wingers though , and by that I mean in the U21 setup , currently I dont see anyone really stand out like when I saw Habana for the first time.
8 Aug 2012, 12:01 pm
@PissAnt-2: I think you have to take into context. Grant kicked very accurately because the stormers gave the difficult longer kicks to Joe P.
Nothing wrong with Grant , but I have to agree that he was not the best flyhalf in the comp , not evens from a kicking perspective as he could not goal the longer ones and has poor out of hand kicking ability.
8 Aug 2012, 12:02 pm
@sparticus-3:
Rhule from the Cheetahs – watch him this weekend.
8 Aug 2012, 12:05 pm
@sparticus-4:
You misunderstand, my post is not for or against any kicker, I just find most stats meaningless.
I mean how is the ‘difficulty’ rated?
Distance? Angle? Wind? Rain? Sea-level? Underfoot conditions? Time in the match kick is taken? Decibells of crowds booing? What the guy had for breakfast?
8 Aug 2012, 12:06 pm
Grant doesn’t attempt anything further than about 40m, so his stats are flattering to say the least.
8 Aug 2012, 12:10 pm
@PissAnt-6: LOL , I agree you cannot measure difficulty accurate. But in Grants case we all know his kicks were generally easier than most but jaa I get what you saying.
As for rhule , is that the youngster that came on in the semi’s and scored for the Boks U21 ? I almost nearly forgot about him , he was exciting I agree if its the same guy , he then played the final as well. I remember thinking what a great headline his name will make at the time , Rhule Rules !! Okay maybe for the daily Voice….grin
8 Aug 2012, 12:13 pm
@sparticus-8:
Same guy, he cuts a line like I have seldom seen in rugby – anticipation is awesome.
As for Grant, always maintained he is average.
8 Aug 2012, 12:15 pm
the only thing these stats tell me is that even when Morne is in the poorest form of his career….there’s only 1 bloke more who has slotted more penalties (cruden)…..and that bloke is just above him on the percentage ratings and considered a future all black flyhalf and having the best season ever.
go figure
unrealistic expectations on morne maybe?
8 Aug 2012, 12:20 pm
@PissAnt-6:
I agree, it is key to know how they determined the difficulty rating and whether they took all the factors you mentioned and more into consideration. For example: What is the most difficult?; A kick 10 meters from touch, 30 m from the posts to decide a match or a kick from 60 meters when the one team is leading by 10 points?
The study seems to me like an academic exercise that is highly theoretical and not really worth anything in practice.
8 Aug 2012, 12:25 pm
@PissAnt-2: You got it. Clear as mud?
8 Aug 2012, 12:26 pm
@PissAnt-9:
It is quite clear that the WP/Stormers will probably never win a major throphy in a competition that involves knock out games as long as Grant is playing for them. He is as solid as hell but has proved on numerous occasions that he is no match winner in big matches and there is no reason to believe that it will ever chance.
8 Aug 2012, 12:28 pm
@Brigadier Van Zyl-10:
Nope. Morne had more kicks at goal than anyone else.
That’s why he had the 2nd most penalties.
Morne has been well below par. If he’s not kicking at 85% (or higher) he shouldn’t be anywhere near a Bok jersey.
Carter, for example, can afford to kick at closer to 80% (sometimes less) because his all round game makes up for it (in spades).
8 Aug 2012, 12:29 pm
Henry Honiball version 2 this boy but with stronger kicking
should peak come next RWC.
Peter Grant is a journeyman. No pace and reminds me of Rod Kafer of convicts.
Slow and pedantic.
8 Aug 2012, 12:30 pm
No surprise that the Stormers could not score tries with such a talented backline.
Grant distributed the ball from a standing position. Like Morne Steyn.
8 Aug 2012, 12:30 pm
Is this Ross Tucker again?
Seriously though this Goosen kid is the heat.
Let’s hope the Cheetahs manage him a bit better this time.
8 Aug 2012, 12:30 pm
@Brigadier Van Zyl-10: I think we sometimes forget Morne is not a machine. He has had a slump in form and I personnally feel he should be rested. The reality however is that there is no one to replace him. Lambie is not in the best form himself. Jantjies is a bit hot and cold, Grant has no BMT and fades under presure, Goosen is injured.
8 Aug 2012, 12:31 pm
@Robzim-11:
It prob works on distance and angle only (using a simple formula which factors in distance vs angle). I doubt rain/wind etc would taken into account.
It’s the best way to really judge a kicker. It’s not perfect, but it’s better than looking purely at a players %.
8 Aug 2012, 12:33 pm
@Robzim-13:
I’d consider a change at 9 in that team long before one at 10
8 Aug 2012, 12:35 pm
@Beast-18:
But then he must be rested. And if he isn’t rested, he musn’t play for the Boks. Simple as that. How can Meyer say he’s burnt out and then pick him for the Boks????
Lambie is a quality 10 and is better than Morne in every department at the moment. Plus with Freddie gone, Lambie will play every game at 10 for the Sharks so his general FH play will only get better.
Goosen and Lambie need be our long term Bok 10′s, simple as that.
8 Aug 2012, 12:36 pm
@PissAnt-20:
I’m with you. Ruan needs to come home and make that number 9 jersey his own.
8 Aug 2012, 12:40 pm
@CenturionShark (aka LondonShark)-19:
You are probably right- it makes it a bit better than to only look at success rate but unless they also take other factors like especially the “pressure on the kicker” into consideration it remains highly theoretical (The Sias Ebersohn case is a good example).
8 Aug 2012, 12:43 pm
@PissAnt-20: PA can you shed any light on the rumour that Elton is coming south? Please let it be true…
Sho if we had Pienaar and Elton that would be phenomenal, but I suspect the Sharks would snap him up since McCloed is so bloody average.
But yeah, the sooner Dewaldt and Grant go the better, as much as I like Grant he’s just regressed this season.
8 Aug 2012, 12:44 pm
@PissAnt-20:
yes, imo they need a new scrumhalf, flyhalf and at least one genuine strong experienced prop. Perhaps a better hooker as well as Tiaan is not the player he used to be and Fourie cannot throw the ball properly into a lineout with any form of consistency.
8 Aug 2012, 12:45 pm
@CenturionShark (aka LondonShark)-21: I’m hoping Morne will be rested. Hopefully Louis Fouche will also step out of his shadow at the Bulls. I was quite impressed with the little that I saw of him over the last 2 seasons, but he needs to come into his own. I agree with you on Lambie, but the Sharks are stuffing up another young tallent as they did with Brent Russull, Waylon Murrey and almost did it with Frans Steyn. Let the guy pick a position and settle into it.
8 Aug 2012, 12:46 pm
@Robzim-23:
True true.
But pressure on the kicker isn’t/shouldn’t be a factor though. If a 10 can’t handle pressure, his general kicking % will eventually fall (Gaffie being the best example and of course Sias more recently).
8 Aug 2012, 12:49 pm
@Bagel-24:
Heard the same rumours but nothing I am willing to be quoted on yet.
@Robzim-25:
WP lacks quality in some of your most crucial positions;
2, 3, 9, 10 and 15.
8 Is about the only one covered with good quality with Duane.
8 Aug 2012, 12:50 pm
@Beast-26:
Mmmm, not sure about Fouche, I really don’t rate the guy. He seems very erratic.
Ja, I’m glad Lambie will now get time at 10 (Plumtree has already said he see’s Lambie as their long term flyhalf).
Murray’s was messed around a little, but it was his kness that really let him down. Russell was screwed though. His one weakness though was his goalkicking which meant that if we didn’t have a 15 who could kick, we (the Sharks) were screwed with Brent at 10.
8 Aug 2012, 12:50 pm
@CenturionShark (aka LondonShark)-14:
yes, morne does have more kicks than anyone else because his team still back him to knock them over everytime from 50m out.
lambies legend as a flyhalf grows everyday. Even though the sharks have been a hell of a lot better with freddie at 10 this year….and last for that matter.
lambie had a good CC in 2010 as flyhalf. Other than that he’s been up and down and better at 15.
I’d personally take a chance with Jantjies.
8 Aug 2012, 12:51 pm
What bullshit is this difficulty kak? I rate players kicking at poles on success rate – then kicking meters gained.
The Goose is the best in both followed by Elton. Grant has a small gun and Bambie is as kak as Steyn.
End of debate.
8 Aug 2012, 12:53 pm
Kind of off the point, but I love how Stormers fans (and some writers) are saying that the Stormers overachieved when you look at how many Boks they have.
BUT, ask any Stormers fan how many of their players SHOULD be Boks, and the above argument falls flat.
8 Aug 2012, 12:55 pm
@Brigadier Van Zyl-30:
Mmm, not sure hey. Lambie has been bloody good at 10 for the Sharks, while Freddie has had the luxury of having some real centers to play with (Lambie was stuck with Bosman for a while).
8 Aug 2012, 12:56 pm
@RL-31:
Um, then Peter Grant is the best (according to your % statement). Unless you combine the 2 somehow (kicking out of hand and %).
8 Aug 2012, 13:00 pm
I would however say that when on form…Morne is the best field goal kicker as well as kicking out of hand in the business.
the goose looks like he may be on par but I would want to see some more, particularly underpressure.
Morne’s banana punt is to kickers what a “sonny Bill” is to 12′s.
8 Aug 2012, 13:03 pm
@CenturionShark (aka LondonShark)-34: kicking at poles and out of hand – those stats show that Goosen is the best followed by Elton. Steyn is behind them followed by Bambie and Grant.
8 Aug 2012, 13:07 pm
@Brigadier Van Zyl-35:
On form, I agree, but his form has been off now for 12 months. When does a ‘dip’ in form become a serious problem.
At flyhalf, you can’t afford ‘dips’, the team depends on you too much.
8 Aug 2012, 13:09 pm
@RL-36:
It”s tough to use kicking meters, mainly due to a teams gameplan. Forget stats, with Goosen out, my list of 10′s (in order) is:
1.Lambie
2.Elton (but he needs to leave the Lions ASAP).
3.Morne
4.Grant
8 Aug 2012, 13:11 pm
Oh here we go, I somehow missed this in the atricle.
The difficulty rating is determined by three factors – angle, distance and altitude.
Looks fair to me.
8 Aug 2012, 13:11 pm
Blows my mind that players are expected to find form in the Bok jersey. Happened with Divvie and happening again
Understand that Morne needs a break and the franchise should play there part as Boks should come first (which they dont), but if the guy is burnt out and completely out of form, how would playing him in tests improve the situation?
8 Aug 2012, 13:15 pm
Saw Duvenhage pull away in his Black Polo in the Canal Walk parking lot, last Friday.
Just wanted to scream…… Hey…. jy spiel kak…. but my daughter was with me and decided against it.
8 Aug 2012, 13:16 pm
@CenturionShark (aka LondonShark)-38: game plan does not determine kicking distance. Elton plays for a team that does not kick yet he leads Steyn in meters who plays for a kicking team. One Goosen kick out of hand is equal to 3 Grant kicks in meters.
And you are right, the sooner Elton leaves the Lions the sooner he will become Goosen’s backup for the Boks. Stormer backs will be dangerous with him there.
8 Aug 2012, 13:18 pm
@PissAnt-28:
Yet, the Stormers have 4 flhalves waiting in the wings……Francis, Coleman, van Aswegen, Catrakillis.
Are none of them good enough….
Makes you wonder once again about WP contracting
8 Aug 2012, 13:22 pm
Morne’s form has not really dipped, just his kicking for poles. He is very good kicking out of hand, but offers nothing else. Why would such a limited player be selected for the Boks. Elton needs to be backup to Goosen and so should start for the Boks. Lambie at 15 and Frans can cover for him. Morne should go back to CC with Spoes.
8 Aug 2012, 13:26 pm
@greatest13gerber-15: Goosen is absolutely nothing like Honiball ! Please man , are you serious ? If anything Grant is more like a poor mans Honiball.
Goosen is actually like no other flyhalf SA has ever seen , he is more like Carter to be honest. Potentially the complete package
8 Aug 2012, 13:29 pm
@TooMuchRugby-43: Thats just sad sad sad !! I would love for Jantjies or Goosen to come play here.
8 Aug 2012, 13:30 pm
@RefuGSpot-44: Lambie at 15? Are you nuts!
Not only does he lack pace and height for the high ball stuff but he is a below average fullback.
Exhibit A – Currie cup final 2011. Bambie had a mare at the back.
Exhibit B – superrugby final 2012. Watch the match again.
8 Aug 2012, 13:30 pm
@sparticus-45:
Please don’t mention Peter Grant and Henry Honiball in the same sentence ever again.
8 Aug 2012, 13:38 pm
@TooMuchRugby-43:
let’s hope tim swiel develops quickly…
8 Aug 2012, 13:40 pm
@RL-47: I would much rather have Lambie play 15 and settle there than have Nik-Naks man there. I agree he is not the complete package for a15, but HM is not going to pick the likes of Daniller who is currently our best test quality 15.
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