Bet on Blacks
13 Aug 2012
RYAN VREDE writes the All Blacks will win the Rugby Championship comfortably, with the Springboks’ cause to be undermined by the absence of key players and the struggles of others.
I’ve written extensively that this tournament will be a greater measure of the new generation Springboks and coach Heyneke Meyer’s aptitude than the series against England was. England rarely exploited the Springboks’ vulnerabilities in the manner the southern hemisphere’s elite will do.
And there are certainly worrying vulnerabilities.
Injuries have robbed Meyer of the services of Schalk Burger (knee) and JP Pietersen (thumb). Burger’s industry and abrasiveness has been at the heart of the Springboks’ success, while Pietersen has been consistently impressive in recent months, looking to have recaptured an appetite for the game.
Elsewhere, dynamic prop Coenie Oosthuizen (neck) was important in their planning and strategy, while uncapped players like Duane Vermuelen and Johann Goosen would have been part of and indeed potentially amplified the Springboks’ strength – Goosen lending Meyer a different dimension at flyhalf to what Morne Steyn offers. These are significant losses.
Their challenge is compounded by the concerning form of their halfback pair, Francois Hougaard and Steyn, who are absolutely central to the success of their game plan.
The Springboks’ coaching team have deep reservations about Hougaard in particular. His tactical kicking has been poor and will only improve marginally with tailored coaching. Meyer has greater faith in Ruan Pienaar’s kicking game, but he only joins the squad this week and will not start against Argentina. How Hougaard responds to this challenge will be decisive to the longevity of his Test career.
Meyer’s confidence in Steyn remains high and he is optimistic that the break he had after the Bulls’ Super Rugby exit (his first in three seasons) will rejuvenate him. Steyn needs a good tournament for his own self belief, to repay the faith his coach will show in him and to stall the advance of Goosen, who, if fit, will be considered to start on the year-end tour to the UK.
A career defining tournament also awaits Andries Bekker, who missed the England series through injury. Bekker’s technical ability has never been in question but there are lingering concerns about his mental toughness in high pressure matches. Bekker will unseat Juandre Kruger at No. 5 lock and will be primarily tasked with engineering the Springboks’ dominance at lineouts, a facet of play they will place a premium on in the context of their game plan. He was supposed to be a natural successor to Victor Matfield but is in danger of being overwhelmed by Matfield’s legacy.
The Springboks will benefit from a favourable draw, which should see them make the early running with wins over Argentina. But they will struggle against the more settled Blacks, who, in the series sweep over Ireland in June, showed the benefits of continuity in coaching with Steve Hansen, the retention of the core of the World Cup winning side and the emergence of Test-standard rookies like Same Cane, Julian Savea, Ben Smith, Aaron Smith and Brodie Retallick. A positive prognosis on Kieran Read, who is becoming as influential for the side as Richie McCaw and Dan Carter, further improves their prospects.
Australia will take some beating, but don’t pose the threat the Blacks do. Argentina will take time to become accustomed to the unique demands of the tournament. They will be better placed in 2013, as will the Springboks.
This year though – bet on Blacks.
Probable Springboks 15 - 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Lwazi Mvovo, 13 Jean de Villiers, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
327 Comments
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13 Aug 2012, 05:07 am
Get rid of Kirshner and Spies and steyn, useless Drangons. In fact they not Dragons at all!
13 Aug 2012, 05:28 am
@whatever-1:
Agree, Kirchner just does not have what it takes to cut it at international level, Super Rugby being his ceiling.
As for Spies and Morne Steyn, the jury’s out. Spies has always underwhelmed, Steyn is so bloody one-dimensional and when that dimension (his kicking) suffers, he’s shite…even when it fires, he’s little better than average.
I like Hougaard, though, and reckon he’ll have a cracker of a Rugby Championship. Please nto Ruan Pienaar, he’s another Spies…full of promise, seldome delivers at the highest level.
13 Aug 2012, 05:56 am
The Bulls bubble burst in the second half of the S15. That they still have such a high contingent of players in the squad is baffling. Steyn is primarily a kicker, who’s kicking game is failing him, so now what?
13 Aug 2012, 06:11 am
Can’t really agree that SA are too badly off with injuries this time.
Burger and Pieterson sure but Goosen is uncapped and Oosthuizen is a squad player.
More pertinent is the 8/9/10 combination who are either mis-firing or not fit for purpose.
13 Aug 2012, 07:56 am
When will they write an article about Spies who shouldnt be near a bok jersey??
Shouldnt he receive a helll of a lot more criticism. He’s the biggest bok imposter if you are to believe that only the best gets selected…
Alberts and Kolisi will make a better impact at 8 imo. You’ll need more grunt against the AB’s and Spies keeps on proving that he’s just not up to international rugby standard and apparently bok standard…
13 Aug 2012, 08:12 am
Kanko going to Japan was a huuuuge lose.
Meyer would have started with him too.
13 Aug 2012, 08:15 am
@Jeez-5:
Yeah, Spies just doesn’t have the mental game to be a good number 8.
His power is also limitted to the gym.
I know many guys who lift/bench/squat big numbers in the gym, but still go backwards on the field.
13 Aug 2012, 08:18 am
My bok team regarding injuries: imo imo
15 Aplon/Joe Peterson/Lambie
14 Lwazi Mvovo,
13 Jean de Villiers/ Jordaan- must be a future bok surely, hopefully soon. Burger for captain.
12 Frans Steyn,
11 Basson (far better finisher than Habs and best under the high ball)/ Hougaard (scrumhalf and wing cover sub)
10 Steyn (hate to say it but Jantjies and Lambie werent that much better this season imo)/ Goosen (only a few more weeks)/Janjies/Lambie
9 Pienaar
8 Alberts (with Burger, Brussouw and
7 Coetzee Vermeulen all coming back
6 Kolisi Spies should not make the squad)
5 Andries Bekker,
4 Eben Etzebeth,
3 Jannie du Plessis
2 Bismarck du Plessis
1 Beast Mtawarira
13 Aug 2012, 08:19 am
@7
just like i know farmers who are physically more stronger than gym bunnies with their supplements just from hard physical work,braaivleis en mieliepap.
13 Aug 2012, 08:28 am
Ryan, if that is truly going to be the team, then we’re proper f ucked. I am sure that Straulie would do a better job.
13 Aug 2012, 08:30 am
@CenturionShark (aka LondonShark)-6:
Oops yeah totally forgot about Kanko. Jeez there is really no excuse to play Spies. His time like some others to move on and stop hogging the jersey he simply doesnt deserve. Im not encouraging it but he also never seems to get injured!?
13 Aug 2012, 08:41 am
@Jeez-11: Aplon and JOe??? did you watch saturdays match???
Best 15 in SA right now IS Ludik or the kid from the Kwas
13 Aug 2012, 08:42 am
Ah, if I had a keo dollar for every Vrede “certainty” that panned out 100% wrong, I’d be able to buy ten keo mansions.
13 Aug 2012, 08:50 am
@>^..^< katman-13: Specially his calls on the matches between the Sharks and WP/Stormers
13 Aug 2012, 08:58 am
That team doesn’t inspire confidence at all.Looking really thin on international quality backline players.Forwards looking ok though.Just wish kanko could have been there!
13 Aug 2012, 08:59 am
@sharks_lover-12:
I agree,Ludik is underrated, but I cant see Meyer picking him.. Regarding that Peterson and Aplon have been involved would suggest that they are more likely to be selected…
Wouldnt mind if a younger player comes through, but who would that be? the sa u21 guy was ****…
Younger players must at some stage be introduced and take over as regular starters… That can be said about 15,11,13 and 10. Building experience has to start somewhere… Having guys like Goosen, Steyn, Jordaan and Taute in a starting backline would really be exciting…
13 Aug 2012, 08:59 am
@W.P-3: well, both the national coach and his backline assistant say msteyn’s all-round game is top notch
– don’t ask me what the hell they’re on about – so as soon as they sort out the kicking then voila msteyn will be good again.
13 Aug 2012, 09:00 am
@JOHN DEERE-15: For what purpose??
You really believe HM will leave out a Spies or M Steyn?? that never gonna happen
13 Aug 2012, 09:02 am
@Jeez-16: Lambie should be the 10
13 Aug 2012, 09:04 am
spies, hougaard, kirchener and steyn may well be very dodgy selctions…
but Bekker?
you cannot be serious. He’s done feckall since 2010 and even then, in the big games when you need to bank on your set piece and lineout…..he’s nowhere.
13 Aug 2012, 09:05 am
Nice to see how closely the views of the Bok coaching team mirror my own at the moment.
Over the last few weeks I’ve stated that:
Morne Steyn’s first extended break in years might just freshen his mind a bit.
That Hougaard is the real concern, in that he does not have the skills of a scrumhalf
And that Ruan Pienaar is the interim answer at 9, in the absence of Fourie du Preez.
Either Ryan is just passing off my ideas as supposed inside knowledge he got from his “sources” in the Bok squad, or else I’m cruising on the same wavelength as our national coaching team.
13 Aug 2012, 09:08 am
@Tacitus-21: we’ve accepted that you think you have the inside lane to meyer’s thoughts…
13 Aug 2012, 09:16 am
Our forwards look class – would be even better if Kanko was available but I agree that the backline looks decidedly pedestrian and lacking of international and/or X factor. No Pietersen is a major blow and the AB’s (and even the Aussies) must be laughing to find that the best SA can come up with is Morne and Kirchner in those key positions !! Jury out on Hougaard….funny how he always looks good as a wing replacement but so limited as a first choice #9. At least Habana looking better and settled and I like the idea of Mvovo getting a run ….Basson always seems a bit like Hougaard – flatters to deceive. I have always been a great fan of Lambie but rushing him back to the Sharks lineup for the final must have done his confidence no good – he had a shocker…..but he’s still MUCH better a bet than Kirchner !
13 Aug 2012, 09:19 am
Pienaar
Goosen
Frans Steyn
De Villiers
JP Pietersen
Habana
Ludik
Now that’s a world class backline, with Hougaard available as impact player. It is only fullback where all our options are good, but not great. And that includes Kirchner, Ludik, Lambie and Aplon.
We need a new star at the back, but there’s no one at the moment.
Other than that, we can field a very strong first choice backline, injuries allowing.
13 Aug 2012, 09:31 am
after hearing for years about all this incredible depth in SA rugby, it comes as no surprise that SA doesnt really have a backline that would worry other teams, even the Argies must feel they can match and beat the SA backline.
perhaps this is the real reason for the skop an jag rugby we have seen over the years?
13 Aug 2012, 09:32 am
Daar is nog plek by die Bulls , Sharks en Lions om aan te sluit as supporters….
13 Aug 2012, 09:32 am
@Tacitus-24:
Jordaan instead of JDV.That kids got flare and x factor. He showd some BMT in the final, was the exception and best player even out of position at 12! When is Taute coming back?
Habana should make way for a younger player at some point, but who? Id start Hougaard instead of Habs. imo
13 Aug 2012, 09:32 am
@Tacitus-24: JdV is nothing classic
13 Aug 2012, 09:36 am
Steyn , and Spies is there cause no contender is better , the ones that could be better are injured.
13 Aug 2012, 09:36 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl-20: With you on Bankie
13 Aug 2012, 09:39 am
@poppa69-25:
I agree its worrying… But I doubt thats the reason for the skop and chase tactics. The Lions, Cheetahs and Sharks play decent attacking rugby. The Sharks probably the team who gets the balance right, regarding attacking, kicking game and defence. Even our u18 and u21 teams play attacking rugby.
Its just bad selections if you ask me. Replace MSteyn, JDV, Kirchner, Habana with some up and coming young players and youll have a much more exciting and dangerous backline. imo
13 Aug 2012, 09:41 am
@capebull-29: Perhaps with Steyn (although Jantjies and Lambie deserves a chance to prove that they can do better) but I dont agree with Spies. Alberts, Kanko, Kolisi, Daniel even Coetzee will be far better selections at 8!
13 Aug 2012, 09:42 am
@poppa69-25:
excuse me….but when carter went done last year you had piri weepu and donald as all black flyhalfs?
and even then, in every other WC your backline has ended up as a mismatch of players out of position because of injury?
13 Aug 2012, 09:48 am
KP a gooner.
Hoooooohooooohaaaahhaaaaa.
Sabotaged by the Proteas.
Bellywobblechortleguffaw.
13 Aug 2012, 09:51 am
9. Pienaar
10. Goosen
11. Hougaard/Aplon (perhaps Aplon because Taute’s not the best kicker)
12. F.Steyn
13. Jordaan
14. JP
15. Taute
Imo the most dangerous bok backline…
13 Aug 2012, 09:51 am
I rate Hougaard, but feel at sh he has not been that great this season, not for the Boks or Bulls. Pity Pienaar has arrived late otherwise think he should have started this Saturday. If Morne is poor again against Arg this Saturday, then Meyer seriously needs to give Lambie or Jantjies a start the following week at fh. Huge pity that Kanko signed to go to Japan he was in sublime form. Also a massive blow to lose JPP.
We will probably beat Arg twice, but will we beat Oz and Nz with our game plan? Not so sure.
13 Aug 2012, 09:54 am
Hougaard to 15.
Kirchner to Shady Pines,
13 Aug 2012, 09:57 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl-33:, and we won the WC with our fourth choice 1st 5/8th.. thats depth..
2007 was poor selection, not injury… Mauger not even in the gameday squad was stupid, 2003 Muliana was also poor selection, Umaga was available to play…
poor selection does not equate to lack of depth..
the fact Goosen has played half a season of Super rugby, not one test match and is already seen as the saviour is truly not indicative of this “incredible depth in SA” that I have heard muttered often on this web site..
13 Aug 2012, 10:01 am
With the players we have there I would have started with:
1. Beast
2. Jannie
3. Bissie
4. Eben
5. Bekker
6. Kolisi
7. Coetzee
8. Alberts
9. Ruan
10. Lambie
11. Mvovo
12. Steyn
13. Jean
14. Habs (rather move Habs over to 14 and leave Mvovo at 11)
15. Zane (wish Ludik was selected)
13 Aug 2012, 10:02 am
Puma – Aree, Kanko was in incredible form of late. Big Loss as the Boks lose so much with Spies at 8, no mongrol whatsoever. IF the Boks get their game plan right then they will do well, otherwise they are kicking the ball down the throats of the ABs and their backline will just run the back all day long and cuts us to pieces!!!
13 Aug 2012, 10:03 am
Pity that Jordaan is still carrying that hammie injury. If not would have liked to have seen him selected before JJE. Jordaan is a super talent at outside centre and great on the wing too. Rate him better than JJE. One for the future once Jean retires that is.
13 Aug 2012, 10:04 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther-34:
13 Aug 2012, 10:04 am
Bekker – Probably one of the softest locks in the S15. Cannot impose himself physically and never finishes a game. Spends more time sitting on the wing then getting his hands dirty.
Habana – What has he done in the last 3 years to warrant his place? He had a couple of ok games during the S15, a few decent runs in the England series. He is a big defensive liability.
Spies – Soft soft soft
Kirchner – No spark
Steyn – Without his boot he is nothing more than a speed bump.
Its really time for us to drop the cart horses and bring in some young talent. We need to do it now, because in 3 years time, after playing the old boys into the ground we will be in big trouble.
NZ are constantly including new exciting talent into their squad, and look at the results. But we hold onto old stale players “believing they will come right after a break” or “they just need to find themselves” or “they rediscover their passion…” blah blah blah… Stop selecting based on past reputation. I mean how rubbish do Steyn or Spies actually have to place before they get dropped? Scary…
13 Aug 2012, 10:04 am
Puma – Pienaar/Lambie untested but yes would love to see that combo, put Hougie(The Mongrol) on the wing. MEyer seems to set on Monre, i wish he had a plan B to test your team v the Argies!!
13 Aug 2012, 10:07 am
blank – I agree. Once JDV goes who on earth do we have to replace him? I can’t think of anyone that can replace JDV except possibly, Jaque Fourie returning!! Again once JF is properly retired, then who replace these 2 fine players?
Bok centres is where i see a massive future problem, all other areas are covered!!!
13 Aug 2012, 10:08 am
blank – Correction Bok 13 is the future problem. We have the mighty and still young F Steyn at 12!!!
13 Aug 2012, 10:08 am
@race of tan-44:
Having a big, accurate boot at 10 is non negotiable. And I’m not talking about goalkicking – which can be done by any member of the starting 15, even if it is John Eales at no.5.
I’m talking about kicking out of hand. Tactical kicking lies at the heart of winning a modern rugby game, and therefore the selection of your flyhalf should go as follows:
Which flyhalves can dominate a game with the boot?
From them, pick the one who also has other skills.
At the moment, we have only Morne Steyn who can dominate the game with tactical kicking. This is even more important with a scrumhalf that can’t kick for love or money.
Lambie, Grant etc. don’t tick that box sufficiently.
Once Goosen is back, everything changes, because he brings a whole range of other skills in addition to a boot that’s even better than Morne’s.
But until then, we can’t really go into a test match without Morne.
13 Aug 2012, 10:11 am
@race of tan-40: Yeah a huge pity Kanko signed to go to Japan. Think he signed with them before the England tour here. Or he was speaking with them already. I bet he probably wishes he never did now. He would be starting this RC at 8 for sure. Now we have Spies again. He better there during the RC than he was for the Bulls. So hoping. Just after seeing the blistering form Kanko was in it is a pity he is not with the Boks now.
Our game plan in the end of the day will cost us against the ABs and even the Aussies. Wish the Boks could play the game plan the Sharks used against the Bulls.
13 Aug 2012, 10:11 am
People will note that the understrength Sharks team victory over WP on the weekend was largely because Riaan Viljoen was able to outdistance Burton Francis with his kicks, regularly allowing line outs after a kicking exchange to advance well towards the WP goal line.
Similarly, Louis Fouche’s canon boot did the same for the Bulls against Griquas on Friday.
Tactical kicking lies at the heart of our game, and it is not going to change.
13 Aug 2012, 10:14 am
@Tacitus-47:
I was quite impressed with young fouche on friday night.
he has a cannon of a boot and deceptive pace in the jpp mould. also big in the tackle. That fullback visser also always impresses me. I hope these okes get more game so we can better see how good they can become.
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