Bet on Blacks
13 Aug 2012
RYAN VREDE writes the All Blacks will win the Rugby Championship comfortably, with the Springboks’ cause to be undermined by the absence of key players and the struggles of others.
I’ve written extensively that this tournament will be a greater measure of the new generation Springboks and coach Heyneke Meyer’s aptitude than the series against England was. England rarely exploited the Springboks’ vulnerabilities in the manner the southern hemisphere’s elite will do.
And there are certainly worrying vulnerabilities.
Injuries have robbed Meyer of the services of Schalk Burger (knee) and JP Pietersen (thumb). Burger’s industry and abrasiveness has been at the heart of the Springboks’ success, while Pietersen has been consistently impressive in recent months, looking to have recaptured an appetite for the game.
Elsewhere, dynamic prop Coenie Oosthuizen (neck) was important in their planning and strategy, while uncapped players like Duane Vermuelen and Johann Goosen would have been part of and indeed potentially amplified the Springboks’ strength – Goosen lending Meyer a different dimension at flyhalf to what Morne Steyn offers. These are significant losses.
Their challenge is compounded by the concerning form of their halfback pair, Francois Hougaard and Steyn, who are absolutely central to the success of their game plan.
The Springboks’ coaching team have deep reservations about Hougaard in particular. His tactical kicking has been poor and will only improve marginally with tailored coaching. Meyer has greater faith in Ruan Pienaar’s kicking game, but he only joins the squad this week and will not start against Argentina. How Hougaard responds to this challenge will be decisive to the longevity of his Test career.
Meyer’s confidence in Steyn remains high and he is optimistic that the break he had after the Bulls’ Super Rugby exit (his first in three seasons) will rejuvenate him. Steyn needs a good tournament for his own self belief, to repay the faith his coach will show in him and to stall the advance of Goosen, who, if fit, will be considered to start on the year-end tour to the UK.
A career defining tournament also awaits Andries Bekker, who missed the England series through injury. Bekker’s technical ability has never been in question but there are lingering concerns about his mental toughness in high pressure matches. Bekker will unseat Juandre Kruger at No. 5 lock and will be primarily tasked with engineering the Springboks’ dominance at lineouts, a facet of play they will place a premium on in the context of their game plan. He was supposed to be a natural successor to Victor Matfield but is in danger of being overwhelmed by Matfield’s legacy.
The Springboks will benefit from a favourable draw, which should see them make the early running with wins over Argentina. But they will struggle against the more settled Blacks, who, in the series sweep over Ireland in June, showed the benefits of continuity in coaching with Steve Hansen, the retention of the core of the World Cup winning side and the emergence of Test-standard rookies like Same Cane, Julian Savea, Ben Smith, Aaron Smith and Brodie Retallick. A positive prognosis on Kieran Read, who is becoming as influential for the side as Richie McCaw and Dan Carter, further improves their prospects.
Australia will take some beating, but don’t pose the threat the Blacks do. Argentina will take time to become accustomed to the unique demands of the tournament. They will be better placed in 2013, as will the Springboks.
This year though – bet on Blacks.
Probable Springboks 15 - 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Lwazi Mvovo, 13 Jean de Villiers, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
327 Comments
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13 Aug 2012, 10:15 am
@race of tan-44: Lambie with Pienaar would be great actually. Even untested would start them against the Argies.
Jordaan for outside centre after Jean retires. He is a super talent. Was superb there for the Sharks. Jeez he always finds the try line in just about every game he plays. Young too so will be there until the next world cup and longer. I would seriously look at him for next year. He should have been selected ahead of JJE.
13 Aug 2012, 10:16 am
@whatever-1: Why not just get rid of all the Bulls players and insert the Stormers chockers in there place.
13 Aug 2012, 10:16 am
@Puma-39: this will be the team
15 Kirchner
14 Habana
13 JDv
12 Frans
11 Mvovo
10 Morne
09 Hougaard
08 Spies
07 Alberts
06 Coetzee
05 Bekker
04 Etsebeth
03 Jannie
02 Bismark
01 Beast
16 Strauss
17 Cilliers
18 Kruger
19 Potgieter (should be Kolisi)
20 Pienaar
21 Jantjies
22 Lambie
13 Aug 2012, 10:17 am
@W.P-3: What happened to the Stormers bubble two home semi losses in two years. Anyway Super and test rugby completely different levels.
13 Aug 2012, 10:18 am
@Tacitus-49: the sharks played a great brand of skop n jag over the weekend (well from the highlights is saw) – all three of their tries had no backline innovation to them, only viljoen moering the ball up and WP players fluffing the high balls for sharkies like bosman & burden to collect and either put runners through or score!
13 Aug 2012, 10:18 am
@Tacitus-49:
In fact, I was impressed with the result altogether as I didn’t think we could beat the kimberly mob. Our forwards got their arses handed to them in the vodacom cup a few weeks ago. Just goes to show that just a couple of changes to the pack and we can get enough ball again. Was also full of respect for werner kruger who sat on the bench for the most part. He’s played 72 consecutive superrugby games without a break. No wonder his form has been on the dip as well.
13 Aug 2012, 10:19 am
Meyer’s long term plan is quite logical and obvious, in my view.
Get Morne Steyn to carry us until Johan Goosen can take over.
What’s the point of trying anyone else there for a few games, if Goosen is his long term pick already?
13 Aug 2012, 10:21 am
@Transformation-55:
Exactly. I already raised this on the Sharks thread.
Jordaan is being praised for the attacking rugby that led to his try, but that try came from a Viljoen kick that was regathered by Viljoen and passed to Jordaan.
This is what opened up the defense in the first place, not some brilliant strike running against a set defensive backline.
Kicking is vital to break up the defensive line, so people need to accept it if they want to see tries.
13 Aug 2012, 10:23 am
@Tacitus-57:
you cannot debate with the emotional.
everyone with any sort of logic can figure that already. Most WP supporters would field a completely new side this weekend with no experience whatsoever. And then probably another new one for the next game.
very strauliesque
13 Aug 2012, 10:23 am
@Brigadier Van Zyl-56:
Fouche has greater range on his kicks than Morne, is bigger, stronger, faster and more of an attacking player than Morne too.
But he is mentally fragile, and once impossibly great kick will often be followed by a shocker.
If they can sort this out, he could develop into a decent long term backup to Goosen, as they are very similar players, with Goosen just having bucketloads of BMT to add to his physical talents.
13 Aug 2012, 10:24 am
@Tacitus-57: so morne is a stopgap? lol
13 Aug 2012, 10:25 am
@Tacitus-60:
once = one
13 Aug 2012, 10:25 am
@sharks_lover-53: I know that will be the team. Just wish we could see other names there starting.
13 Aug 2012, 10:25 am
@Transformation-61:
At this stage of his career, yes, he is.
Just like Jean de Villiers, Habana and Burger (if Burger ever returns).
13 Aug 2012, 10:27 am
@Tacitus-60:
well, morne sat on the bench for hougaard for a while because his kicking was not up to scratch…..only to become a far better player than hougaard ever was.
13 Aug 2012, 10:30 am
@Tacitus-58: the issue arises when the opposition has great highball gatherers like corey jane, israel dagg, ben smith and add the little matter of getting matched physically at the collisions and then the plan needs an extra gear and not of the same.
meyer on boots and all last week put it out there as blatantly as he could when he said “my mantra is EXECUTION OVER INNOVATION any day”
he’s got the masterplan and won’t be deviating from it.
13 Aug 2012, 10:32 am
@Tacitus-57: The point is to pick the best available team in the meantime.
13 Aug 2012, 10:33 am
@Big Hit-4: Agree 100%.
13 Aug 2012, 10:34 am
What interests me is if our tight five is going to be on par with the other three teams. That is where it will be won and lost imo. Maybe against the Pumas we will get away with it but definately not against the other two.
13 Aug 2012, 10:35 am
@Tacitus-60: if lambie can, as meyer has suggested, sort out his tactical kicking, fouche is not needed plus lambie is streets ahead of fouche in handling pressure.
13 Aug 2012, 10:35 am
@Tacitus-24: I like that backline, Tac.
13 Aug 2012, 10:36 am
@sharks_lover-53: I think Kolisi will be on the bench and not Pogieter. Well hope so.
13 Aug 2012, 10:37 am
@Puma-72: meant – Potgieter
13 Aug 2012, 10:37 am
@Airwell-69: It all depends.
If we play a kick-chase, ie playing without the ball more often, the forwards will have to run extra meters on defense, which in turn could drain them come the set pieces.
If we keep the ball in hand and we allow our forwards to go, well, forward, then we are in with a chance.
13 Aug 2012, 10:40 am
@willievz-71:
Thanks.
I’m not stuck on Morne at all costs, contrary to belief.
I just believe the need for a great tactical kicker at 10 is vital, and that Morne is the best we have in that department at the moment.
But Goosen offers everything that Morne can in that department – and more. Plus he has a range of other skills that puts him in the Dan Carter league, in my mind.
But first he has to recover properly from injury.
13 Aug 2012, 10:42 am
@Tacitus-58: Gathered by Bosman not regathered by Viljoen.
13 Aug 2012, 10:42 am
@willievz-67: Best available team in who’s opinion? Yours or the Springbok coach’s opinion?
13 Aug 2012, 10:43 am
@Tacitus-75: Imo Goosen must still proove himself at test level. My second choice at the moment is Lambie.
13 Aug 2012, 10:46 am
@Sasuke-76: i let that one slide
13 Aug 2012, 10:47 am
@Transformation-55:
Ya because the awesome Summer weather that passed through CT over the w/e lent itself to attacking, skillful rugby.
That game was always going to be a battle of the tight forwards and kicking for territory.
13 Aug 2012, 10:47 am
It matters not the depth of talent. If the coach is dead set on his tactics, without regard to synergy & compatibility with the playing personnel.
13 Aug 2012, 10:48 am
Gathered by Bosman indeed.
13 Aug 2012, 10:48 am
@Puma-72: Agreed, but with the players there at the MO this would be my team
15 F Steyn
14 Habana
13 Hougaard
12 JDV
11 Mvovo
10 Lambie
09 Pienaar
08 Alberts
07 Coetzee
06 Kolisi
05 Kruger/Bekker
04 Etsebeth
03 Jannie
02 Bismark
01 Beast
16 Strauss
17 Cilliers
18 Bekker/Kruger
19 Keegan Daniel
20 Spies
21 Jantjies
22 Engelbrecht
13 Aug 2012, 10:54 am
one thing i think south african rugby fans are ignoring… possibly due to desperation and hope… is that waiting for Johan Goosen to ride in and sort out our rugby is not a plan B or any other letter of the alphabet…
while he has been blessed with absolutely phenomenal talent… he has been cursed with a less than robust physiology… i said before this s15 started that he needed more time… but true to south african desperation for instant gratification he was rushed into the big time…
he had two KOs before he played a S15 game… and (as with boxers etc) the brain does not become more robust with age… quite the opposite in fact… the impact of concussion is cumulative… and with the new concussion regulations, when he comes back we can expect him to not only get concussed again and more often… but also to suffer further injuries…
the emotional will rant at me for such heresy… but i’m not having a go at Goosen the person or player… his talent is amazing… but hanging our long-term hopes on him is going to be no more realistic than a child hanging their wishes on a star…
what we should be doing is putting Lambie into the driving seat at 10 at provincial and national level and let his settle and develop his game in that position… then WHEN Goosen is fit he can sub Lambie as an impact player…
this will be the only way to ensure some sort of continuity for the boks in the flyhalf position… it will be unfair on the other 10s and too disruptive on the team in general to always have a short-term plan A player filling in at 10 while plan B is waiting for Goosen to get fit… again…
Lambie has the rugby nous, big match temperament and full skillset with hands and feet to be a great flyhalf… and he is more robust… but it is extremely unfair on the young guy to play him all over the place and then expect him to pull off the perfect game at flyhalf for the boks whenever called on to do so…
13 Aug 2012, 10:54 am
so what is this about burton and joeyp being injured?
13 Aug 2012, 10:57 am
@ufo-84: you reckon that’s why goosen was on the juice, to make himself “robust”?
13 Aug 2012, 10:58 am
ja… and jordaan the most exciting centre to arrive in sa rugby since jaque fourie…
but… please don’t rush him either… he’s already also been injured more often than not…
patience people…
13 Aug 2012, 10:59 am
@ufo-84: Very well said UFO
13 Aug 2012, 10:59 am
@Transformation-86:
dunno… aren’t all saffa schoolboys on the juice…??
13 Aug 2012, 11:01 am
@ufo-87: JOrdaan needs to get time off for that Hammy to recover, Plum did say Jordaans hammy stiffened up so he pulled him off, prolly the right thing
I cant wait to see Steyn and Jordaan as a combo?? could be pretty impressive
13 Aug 2012, 11:03 am
Is Jordaan not a bit on the small side, to go up against guys like Jacque Fourie, SBW, Nonu etc. at centre?
13 Aug 2012, 11:04 am
@sharks_lover-90:
yeah.. they need to let jordaan recover fully… very talented, exciting player…
he and frans… with lambie distributing… are gonna bliksem opposition… those three will punch holes through the middle of any other team…
pity we won’t see them playing CC together…
13 Aug 2012, 11:06 am
@Tacitus-91: if small is below 1.9m then he is…
13 Aug 2012, 11:07 am
@57 the point is that its a high performance environment. If Morne was a non-bull HM would have sacked him forever after the PE test
13 Aug 2012, 11:07 am
@Transformation-93:
What’s his stats?
13 Aug 2012, 11:07 am
@viewer-94:
That’s emotional reasoning.
13 Aug 2012, 11:09 am
@Airwell-77: So it is ok for us to criticise PDV’s selections, but not Heyneke’s?
Just because Jacob Zuma is president doesn’t mean he knows everything about politics.
13 Aug 2012, 11:09 am
remember guys…
i’m dyed-in-the-wool WP…
no agenda here… just calling it as i see it…
13 Aug 2012, 11:11 am
@willievz-97:
Hehe.
If P Divvy was Jacob Zuma, then the appropriate political comparison for Meyer is more likely Winston Churchill or Abraham Lincoln.
13 Aug 2012, 11:13 am
@Tacitus-91: He did pretty well in the final at 12! Dont think his size is an issue, JdJ probably smaller than he is…
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