Bet on Blacks
13 Aug 2012
RYAN VREDE writes the All Blacks will win the Rugby Championship comfortably, with the Springboks’ cause to be undermined by the absence of key players and the struggles of others.
I’ve written extensively that this tournament will be a greater measure of the new generation Springboks and coach Heyneke Meyer’s aptitude than the series against England was. England rarely exploited the Springboks’ vulnerabilities in the manner the southern hemisphere’s elite will do.
And there are certainly worrying vulnerabilities.
Injuries have robbed Meyer of the services of Schalk Burger (knee) and JP Pietersen (thumb). Burger’s industry and abrasiveness has been at the heart of the Springboks’ success, while Pietersen has been consistently impressive in recent months, looking to have recaptured an appetite for the game.
Elsewhere, dynamic prop Coenie Oosthuizen (neck) was important in their planning and strategy, while uncapped players like Duane Vermuelen and Johann Goosen would have been part of and indeed potentially amplified the Springboks’ strength – Goosen lending Meyer a different dimension at flyhalf to what Morne Steyn offers. These are significant losses.
Their challenge is compounded by the concerning form of their halfback pair, Francois Hougaard and Steyn, who are absolutely central to the success of their game plan.
The Springboks’ coaching team have deep reservations about Hougaard in particular. His tactical kicking has been poor and will only improve marginally with tailored coaching. Meyer has greater faith in Ruan Pienaar’s kicking game, but he only joins the squad this week and will not start against Argentina. How Hougaard responds to this challenge will be decisive to the longevity of his Test career.
Meyer’s confidence in Steyn remains high and he is optimistic that the break he had after the Bulls’ Super Rugby exit (his first in three seasons) will rejuvenate him. Steyn needs a good tournament for his own self belief, to repay the faith his coach will show in him and to stall the advance of Goosen, who, if fit, will be considered to start on the year-end tour to the UK.
A career defining tournament also awaits Andries Bekker, who missed the England series through injury. Bekker’s technical ability has never been in question but there are lingering concerns about his mental toughness in high pressure matches. Bekker will unseat Juandre Kruger at No. 5 lock and will be primarily tasked with engineering the Springboks’ dominance at lineouts, a facet of play they will place a premium on in the context of their game plan. He was supposed to be a natural successor to Victor Matfield but is in danger of being overwhelmed by Matfield’s legacy.
The Springboks will benefit from a favourable draw, which should see them make the early running with wins over Argentina. But they will struggle against the more settled Blacks, who, in the series sweep over Ireland in June, showed the benefits of continuity in coaching with Steve Hansen, the retention of the core of the World Cup winning side and the emergence of Test-standard rookies like Same Cane, Julian Savea, Ben Smith, Aaron Smith and Brodie Retallick. A positive prognosis on Kieran Read, who is becoming as influential for the side as Richie McCaw and Dan Carter, further improves their prospects.
Australia will take some beating, but don’t pose the threat the Blacks do. Argentina will take time to become accustomed to the unique demands of the tournament. They will be better placed in 2013, as will the Springboks.
This year though – bet on Blacks.
Probable Springboks 15 - 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Lwazi Mvovo, 13 Jean de Villiers, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
327 Comments
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 » Show All
13 Aug 2012, 11:13 am
@ufo-92: LOL this is true, boet even Mcleod should start waking up, the new kid Reinach had a very good first outing on Saturday, but by the end of the year Sharks backline will be
15 Ludik
14 JPP
13 Jordaan
12 Steyn
11 Mvovo
10 Lambie
09 Mcleod
3 reserves
Reinach
Bosman/Viljoen
Odwa/Sbura
13 Aug 2012, 11:16 am
@Tacitus-91:
Apparently he is phenomenally strong in the gym for such a youngster.
Very powerfully built.
Out of the current CC sharks team, only Craig Burden is stronger than him when they test players across a range of gym and explosive tests.
13 Aug 2012, 11:16 am
@Tacitus-95: 1.80m 88kg according to wiki…
13 Aug 2012, 11:17 am
@Transformation-103:
Too small.
Sorry. 1.80m is too small for centre. Finish and klaar.
13 Aug 2012, 11:19 am
@Tacitus-104:
This is not Hennie le Roux’s day anymore.
You can’t have SBW or that Tuigimala chap from England running at a 1.80m dwarf.
13 Aug 2012, 11:20 am
well i am basking in the warm durban sunshine and the city has a nice vibe about it.
thats what three wins on the trot against wp will do i suppose.
13 Aug 2012, 11:22 am
@Tacitus-105: howdy tac, have you seen him tackle?
he is pretty fearless.
and he has the best swerve of any runner barring maybe that rhule chap, in sa rugby at present.
man, that try he scored vs wp on the weekend was awesome, he made joe p look even more pedestrian than digby ione in the reds playoff game.
remind me how big etienne botha was?
13 Aug 2012, 11:23 am
@Tacitus-105:
You dont think Tim Horan would do well these days?
I think he would still dominate.
All about strenth in the tackle and explosiveness.
13 Aug 2012, 11:23 am
@rangerman-107:
Yes, I’m very impressed by Jordaan’s talent.
But that doesn’t change the fact that he is small.
Maybe he can be a Dominici type wing, like Hougaard.
But not big enough for centre, in my view.
13 Aug 2012, 11:25 am
@Tacitus-104:
Christian Cullen?
1.80m
85kgs
13 Aug 2012, 11:25 am
@John Galt-108:
Nope. SBW would get his arms through any tackle by a dwarf like Horan, and offload into space.
You need to take these guys high, wrap your meaty hooks around them and bring them down with the weight of your body. Like Frans Steyn does.
13 Aug 2012, 11:25 am
@John Galt-110:
Fullback. And a freak.
13 Aug 2012, 11:26 am
@Tacitus-109:
Isn’t he an outside centre? Neither Conrad Smith or BOD is that big by comparison.
13 Aug 2012, 11:27 am
@Tacitus-104: HAHAHHHAHAHA conrad smith is 1.86m 96kg and HE IS THE BEST
13 Aug 2012, 11:28 am
@David-113:
Don’t know what his real position is. The first I saw of him was as an impact player for the Sharks this year, and then at wing for the Baby Boks.
Fantastic player. But you can’t get away from the size issue in the midfield.
13 Aug 2012, 11:28 am
@Transformation-114:
Err…Is that supposed to NEGATE my point? Or to support it?
13 Aug 2012, 11:29 am
They (goosen & jordaan) are not physically matured yet. They’ll hit peak height in their mid to late twenties. But I share the cautious point of view dictating they don’t play as starters against ± 10 year test veterans just yet
13 Aug 2012, 11:29 am
@Tacitus-111:
Yeah, i think SBW would get his hands through the tackle against all players.
He’s also a freak. He did it against all comers at centre this year. No matter what their size.
Nonu, JdV etc. He’ll do it against Frans as well, no doubt about that.
13 Aug 2012, 11:29 am
Hasn’t the small De Jongh been part of a granitic defensive structure in Super Rugby?
13 Aug 2012, 11:29 am
@ufo-84:
indeed.
poorly managed by free state.
13 Aug 2012, 11:30 am
Forget Jordaan’s onnerbroek size for a moment. The real talking point of the weekend is the snotting a coachless Lions gave the hapless Cheetahs. I say coachless, because Ackerman is not much more that the guy who gets them all on the bus on time.
Let’s discuss this now.
13 Aug 2012, 11:31 am
@Tacitus-105: “You can’t have SBW or that Tuigimala chap from England running at a 1.80m dwarf.” hehehe manu tuilagi is 1.85m 110kg
13 Aug 2012, 11:32 am
@>^..^< katman-121:
Look Katman. I too was surprised by that, at first.
But then I realised that the Lions Super Rugby team basically played one half of the Cheetahs Super Rugby team this weekend. With the Bulls Currie Cup team facing the other half, in the guise of Griquas.
The Cheetahs are farked this year in the Currie Cup.
13 Aug 2012, 11:33 am
Sonny Bill won’t be playing against the Boks this year.
Why this fascination of picking centres to counter him if you are not even going to play against him?
13 Aug 2012, 11:36 am
@Transformation-122:
There you’ve done it again.
If Jordaan weighed 105kgs despite his dwarfish height, maybe that would compensate somewhat.
But he doesn’t.
13 Aug 2012, 11:37 am
@Craven-124:
Because Meyer wants size in his midfield.
Hence his preference for Frans Steyn, De Villiers, JJ Engelbrecht over De Jongh and co.
That’s integral to our physical domination based gameplan.
13 Aug 2012, 11:37 am
@Tacitus-123: but sbw, nonu and tuigamauler are all 12′s and should be running at steyn surely?
and jordaan did well in the final imo.
my real concern is why that plonker morne steyn and that even bgger plonker spies are even in the squad?
i know kanko is going to japan but its criminal that he has been kept from fulfilling his potential by spies, seriously.
and imo ruan should be the starting 9 too.
lambie for 10 as morne is not good enough.
13 Aug 2012, 11:38 am
@rangerman-127:
Well, I don’t know what Jordaan’s position is. I guess there’s a slightly better case to be made for him at 13, where pace can compensate for size a bit more.
But there’s no way he will ever fit into our no.12 role. Which is primarily to bash the ball up with size, weight and strength.
13 Aug 2012, 11:38 am
@Tacitus-126: jj who?
what has jj done to even be mentioned in the same breath as jordaan?
no, jj may prove me wong but he has not shown an ounce of the attacking verve that jordaan displays weekly imo.
13 Aug 2012, 11:39 am
Pat McCabe isn’t big either, but he’s a hard tackler. There are enough examples
13 Aug 2012, 11:40 am
@rangerman-129:
Sigh.
I’m not blasting Jordaan. I like the chap. I think he is an exciting attacking runner – yes, reminiscent of Cullen with his change of direction and acceleration through the gap, even with his bouncing off tackles.
But the fact remains, his size does not fit with the type of centre suited to our gameplan for the next 4 years.
13 Aug 2012, 11:42 am
@Tacitus-128: agreed, he should be played at 13 running off a player like fransie.
he will devestate a lot of defences.
i actually think we havent had such a balanced runner since maybe andre snyman or etienne botha in south africa.
plus the kid has played 10 and 12 at school level so he understands these positions and can adapt his 13 game to fit.
he must first have a great s15 next year before being punted too hard but if he fulfills his POTENTIAL at that level then he should be given a look in.
13 Aug 2012, 11:45 am
@Tacitus-123: Come on, there is no way the Cheetahs are worse than the Kwas. Or even on par, for that matter. And the Lions were way more clinical in putting them to the sword than, for example, the Bulls were in their match against the boys from Kimberley.
Point is, most people gave the Lions no chance this year, given their off-field turmoil. But a few people said these obstacles might even galvanise them into something stronger. And on early evidence, that doesn’t seem all that far-fetched.
13 Aug 2012, 11:45 am
If we get our arses handed to us in the Championship I beleiwe we will be looking for a new gameplan, asap.
To base your whole game on physical domination is risky. If the opposition manages to front up to this (like England did in the third test) your are up a foul smelling creek without the proverbial paddle.
13 Aug 2012, 11:46 am
@Tacitus-131:
dont start sighing man, we are just chatting.
i dont think meyers gameplan for the next four years should be static firstly and i also think his drive for the bulls recruitment of sadie (another lightweight) shows that attacking rugby is not neccescarily comprised of bulk alone.
he played a brutal forward orientated game vs the poms because he had to given the lack of prep time but i believe his game may evolve quicker than you think.
13 Aug 2012, 11:47 am
@129 keep an eye on jj. I reckon he’ll do well. If I’m not mistaken he’s both a 13 & right wing. HM is easing him onto the big stage
13 Aug 2012, 11:48 am
@Craven-134: agreed.
look, the setpieces will always be a non-negotiable but i want to see our rugby resemble something like the sharks have managed lately.
its wise for meyer to start morne and sub lambie into the role which is what i am hoping he is planning.
but spies? his time is up imo. kanko, vermeulen or even alberts would be there ahead of spies in my team, any day of any week.
13 Aug 2012, 11:48 am
@>^..^< katman-133:
Most people?
If the Lions play their Super rugby squad they should do well in the watered down Currie Cup. This is no surprise.
13 Aug 2012, 11:49 am
@viewer-136: i will and i hope he shines.
my point is that i have seen jordaan perform more than i have seen jj do.
13 Aug 2012, 11:51 am
@Craven-138: we must remember the horrific injury list the lions had to contend with this season.
13 Aug 2012, 11:51 am
@>^..^< katman-121:
Indeed.
Your boys look like they are peaking at the right time.
In other news did you see Merv Hughes doing his George Michael karaoke act at the closing ceremony last night?
13 Aug 2012, 11:52 am
jj should be played on the wing…
for bulls and boks…
period…
he will become a great wing… but only an average 13… imo…
13 Aug 2012, 11:53 am
in other news, i shot my new personal best fish yesterday morning just north of salt rock.
a 19 kg Garrick/Leervis.
pulled me all over the ocean it did.
the ranger household will be eating pickled fish for the next while yum yum.
13 Aug 2012, 11:56 am
Sounds like a great hobby
13 Aug 2012, 11:57 am
@rangerman-127: They’ll be running at Morne Steyn.
Is his defense up to scratch?
13 Aug 2012, 11:58 am
@the artist formerly known as gunther-141: Nah, I gave it a miss. I found Rory McIlroy taking the field apart in the final round of the PGA champs far more entertaining than a retrospective Britpop stadium pantomime.
13 Aug 2012, 11:58 am
Not the OLD height debate……………Nonu himself is only 1.82cm. Is he too short to play top notch midfield?? I think not.
Another top performer of recent years – Aaron Major was 1.83. Height is not a criteria for midfield success. It helps but there is still a place for the shorter midfielder.
13 Aug 2012, 11:58 am
@viewer-144: spearfishing?
its simply awesome.
watched the sunrise yesterday morning on the beach and then jumped in for a 3 hour shoredive.
saw mantas, turteles, rays, all kinds of reef fish and caught a bag of crayfish at the same time whilst hunting for gamefish.
it messes with my rugby viewing during s15 though
13 Aug 2012, 11:59 am
@Craven-138: Only “watered down” when it suits the argument. This much we’ve learnt over the course of the past season.
13 Aug 2012, 11:59 am
@willievz-145: imo no.
but frans will be there.
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 » Show All
Have your say
You must be logged in to post a comment.