Bet on Blacks
13 Aug 2012
RYAN VREDE writes the All Blacks will win the Rugby Championship comfortably, with the Springboks’ cause to be undermined by the absence of key players and the struggles of others.
I’ve written extensively that this tournament will be a greater measure of the new generation Springboks and coach Heyneke Meyer’s aptitude than the series against England was. England rarely exploited the Springboks’ vulnerabilities in the manner the southern hemisphere’s elite will do.
And there are certainly worrying vulnerabilities.
Injuries have robbed Meyer of the services of Schalk Burger (knee) and JP Pietersen (thumb). Burger’s industry and abrasiveness has been at the heart of the Springboks’ success, while Pietersen has been consistently impressive in recent months, looking to have recaptured an appetite for the game.
Elsewhere, dynamic prop Coenie Oosthuizen (neck) was important in their planning and strategy, while uncapped players like Duane Vermuelen and Johann Goosen would have been part of and indeed potentially amplified the Springboks’ strength – Goosen lending Meyer a different dimension at flyhalf to what Morne Steyn offers. These are significant losses.
Their challenge is compounded by the concerning form of their halfback pair, Francois Hougaard and Steyn, who are absolutely central to the success of their game plan.
The Springboks’ coaching team have deep reservations about Hougaard in particular. His tactical kicking has been poor and will only improve marginally with tailored coaching. Meyer has greater faith in Ruan Pienaar’s kicking game, but he only joins the squad this week and will not start against Argentina. How Hougaard responds to this challenge will be decisive to the longevity of his Test career.
Meyer’s confidence in Steyn remains high and he is optimistic that the break he had after the Bulls’ Super Rugby exit (his first in three seasons) will rejuvenate him. Steyn needs a good tournament for his own self belief, to repay the faith his coach will show in him and to stall the advance of Goosen, who, if fit, will be considered to start on the year-end tour to the UK.
A career defining tournament also awaits Andries Bekker, who missed the England series through injury. Bekker’s technical ability has never been in question but there are lingering concerns about his mental toughness in high pressure matches. Bekker will unseat Juandre Kruger at No. 5 lock and will be primarily tasked with engineering the Springboks’ dominance at lineouts, a facet of play they will place a premium on in the context of their game plan. He was supposed to be a natural successor to Victor Matfield but is in danger of being overwhelmed by Matfield’s legacy.
The Springboks will benefit from a favourable draw, which should see them make the early running with wins over Argentina. But they will struggle against the more settled Blacks, who, in the series sweep over Ireland in June, showed the benefits of continuity in coaching with Steve Hansen, the retention of the core of the World Cup winning side and the emergence of Test-standard rookies like Same Cane, Julian Savea, Ben Smith, Aaron Smith and Brodie Retallick. A positive prognosis on Kieran Read, who is becoming as influential for the side as Richie McCaw and Dan Carter, further improves their prospects.
Australia will take some beating, but don’t pose the threat the Blacks do. Argentina will take time to become accustomed to the unique demands of the tournament. They will be better placed in 2013, as will the Springboks.
This year though – bet on Blacks.
Probable Springboks 15 - 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Lwazi Mvovo, 13 Jean de Villiers, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
327 Comments
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13 Aug 2012, 12:45 pm
saw somewhere that gymnastics and swimming use more muscles than any other sport…
13 Aug 2012, 12:46 pm
The Games are over.,
Let the War begin.
13 Aug 2012, 12:47 pm
@rangerman-197: how about basketball that that yanks seem to win almost all the time?
13 Aug 2012, 12:47 pm
@ufo-201: haha, having *** uses the most
13 Aug 2012, 12:48 pm
@RWC’11 was fixed-204: *** = s e x
13 Aug 2012, 12:48 pm
@ufo-201: No, orgasms and sneezes use more. Apparently.
13 Aug 2012, 12:48 pm
@>^..^< katman-199:
His mother was unplayable.
The stormers should hire her as their new air punch consultant.
Put Fleckie out to pasture.
13 Aug 2012, 12:48 pm
@cane-202: Oh, it’s begun.
13 Aug 2012, 12:49 pm
What big trade export has nz have besides dairy,wool and l&p?
13 Aug 2012, 12:51 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-207: Speaking of Olympic mothers, nothing beats Mrs Phelps taking her La Clossing like a man…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TidAcA0IGFE
13 Aug 2012, 12:51 pm
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19-209: beastiality?
13 Aug 2012, 12:51 pm
@RWC’11 was fixed-204:
that’s a complete phallusy
just cause it leaves you outta breath doesn’t mean you’ve exercised every muscle in your body…
if that was the case we’d all be great gymnast and swimmers…!!
and you don’t get medals for it…
unless your skweez has a rich daddy… or you’re a rapper…
13 Aug 2012, 12:53 pm
@>^..^< katman-206:
see 204…
in any case… sneezes and orgasms aren’t sports…
yet…
although judging by the my-pekkers-bigger-n-yours brigade on keo some people think it is…
13 Aug 2012, 12:54 pm
@Fern is not a stud,he is merely no19-209: They’re a Net Import Nation (with Pacific Island midfielders topping that list ahead of beef, beer and Japanese pornography).
13 Aug 2012, 12:55 pm
@Transformation-203: another stupid inclusion imo.
13 Aug 2012, 12:55 pm
The sport that uses the most muscles is ballet
Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_sport_uses_the_most_muscles#ixzz23QGJHIBP
13 Aug 2012, 12:56 pm
@sharks_lover-216:
13 Aug 2012, 12:57 pm
@ufo-212: You said “phallus” hahahaha
13 Aug 2012, 12:58 pm
Ok so the skinny chicks on the floor routines throwing around the ribbons and hoola hoops used the most muscles at the olympics lol
13 Aug 2012, 12:59 pm
@sharks_lover-216: That sounds a lot more convincing than rowing. There is a lot more going on than being strapped to a machined going back-and-forth.
13 Aug 2012, 12:59 pm
The team selection enigma should be approached as follows:
Who would be your team for the future? (selecting only young promising players replacing all old players who will not continue to play test rugby after the next world cup)
Considering the team for the future its not a sin to say that Habana, JDV, M.Steyn should not be considered. I dont consider Lambie at 15, so Id say the worrying postions for the future with lack op depth are 15, 12 (if Steyn gets injured?) and wing.
or
Who should the team be now, considering form (past and present) , balance with experience and youth ?
Its a helll of a lot trickier when you pick a team on the basis of option 2…Where do you need experience and where do you need youth? When do you demote or drop a older player to make room for a younger star of the future?
Who is the standout 15 at Vodacom cup level?
13 Aug 2012, 13:00 pm
@RWC’11 was fixed-195: Doing the Duzi uses all your muscles surely as you row and run as I understand. I know a bloke who finished in the top 20 of the Duzi and after a month of jogging ran the Comrades in nine hours. So rowing does not seem a sport for sissies.
13 Aug 2012, 13:01 pm
where is delki now?
probably still trying to find a way to make 21% into 40% using wikileaks, google, wikipedia and a bit of a thumbsuck.
13 Aug 2012, 13:01 pm
@sharks_lover-216:
now that makes sense…
@RWC’11 was fixed-218:
pleased you can read…
it’s called wordplay…
not to be mistaken with foreplay…
(although… strip scrabble is fun in the boudoir…)
13 Aug 2012, 13:01 pm
@Airwell-222: correct
13 Aug 2012, 13:02 pm
@rangerman-223:
you scared him off
13 Aug 2012, 13:02 pm
rowing is great exercise but i dont know about which sport uses more muscles.
13 Aug 2012, 13:04 pm
@Airwell-222: First, the Duzi is not rowing, it’s canoeing, a different sport. The point I was trying to make, is that rowing is a very limited sport. I am not saying that it does not take endurance and strength, it does, but in a very limited capacity.
13 Aug 2012, 13:04 pm
@rangerman-193:
On ALL sports, the NZ Gov spends approx US$50 mil. per annum.
13 Aug 2012, 13:04 pm
@sharks_lover-226: ag i hope he is ok, he was a bit like a jack russel for a while there.
13 Aug 2012, 13:04 pm
Simple rule of thumb for culling the Olympic Bloat. Turf any sport that:
• involves a team of more than 4 people
• places age restrictions on entrants
• is set to music
• requires make-up
• relies on animals
• is called “walking”
• resembles America’s Got Talent
13 Aug 2012, 13:06 pm
@rangerman-227: Bodybuilding surely ?
13 Aug 2012, 13:07 pm
@rangerman-192:
@rangerman-193:
my points exactly
but i suspect delki’s out fishing
and by the looks of it he’s realed in a good catch.
13 Aug 2012, 13:07 pm
@rangerman-227:
was at the sports science inst. at newlands a few years back and the biokineticist said gymnastics and swimming are the best overall exercises as they exercise more muscles in the body and promote better all-round fitness in terms of aerobics, stamina and suppleness… in her opinion nothing else comes close…
sure, anecdotal on my side…
but she has plenty of science on hers…
13 Aug 2012, 13:09 pm
@Airwell-222:
@RWC’11 was fixed-228:
Was going to say: There is a big difference between rowing and paddling.
Actually the Dusi is “kayaking”. Canoeing involves an open boat and a paddle with only one blade. It’s only us Saffas that wrongly call it canoeing
13 Aug 2012, 13:09 pm
@cane-229: no cane, someones telling you porkie pies.
“The London Olympics are in their last few days, and soon our athletes will be home and the Olympic post-mortem will really begin.
There’s lots to celebrate, but there will also be questions about the performances of some sports.
It’s an area of major investment for our Government. It will spend $60 million on high-performance sport in the next financial year.
Sport and Recreation Minister Murray McCully was in London this week. He spoke with Valerie Adams and her coach after her silver medal win.
3 News reporter Rachel Smalley spoke with the minister yesterday on his return, and asked him about those meeting.
Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/NZ-more-than-10-medal-nation–McCully/tabid/1697/articleID/265069/Default.aspx#ixzz23QJDHX00”
thats just on HIGH PERFORMANCE sport.
i assume the all blacks arent included there.
so your spend is double ours as is to be expected considering sa’s disparity in living standards.
imo we have a lot more pressing needs here in sa than olympic sport.
13 Aug 2012, 13:10 pm
@ufo-234: Maybe the Stormers rugby players should take up swimming and gymnastics and they possibly will not loose another home semi in the future
13 Aug 2012, 13:11 pm
@Airwell-232: maybe, dunno really.
@wait for it, wait for it…-233: haha, this catch bites though. he lost a few fingers trying to remove the hook
@ufo-234: well good enough for me.
13 Aug 2012, 13:12 pm
Hot off the presses………..Belarus shot putter has just been disqualified for doping, so Val Adams has had her silver medal upgraded to GOLD
That make it SIX golds for NZ at these Olympics – 3 in rowing, one athletics, one kayaking, one sailing. Go team NZ. Go Kiwis!
13 Aug 2012, 13:12 pm
@rangerman-223:
careful, you could get yout fingers burned. kiwi’s have a ‘magical’ way with numbers.
just look at their alternative olympic medals table ranked by % of population to number of medals won.
13 Aug 2012, 13:13 pm
@rangerman-236: sorry, that would be double our entire 4 year spend on an annual basis.
so 8 times as much as sa spent.
and the medal haul simply doesnt tally then surely?
13 Aug 2012, 13:13 pm
@cane-229:
bullshirt
13 Aug 2012, 13:14 pm
@ufo-234: My brother is a biokineticist and has a number of other qualifications including many levels of Chek practitioner and works at the C.H.E.K institute (see Paul Chek, along with Charles Poliquin are considered the worlds leading experts in this field).
My brother reckonds that rugby is a very good sport in terms of overall fitness. Also ballet, dancing, etc.
13 Aug 2012, 13:14 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-240: to be completely honest, i couldnt give a toss
i am simply bored and killing time waiting for a client.
13 Aug 2012, 13:16 pm
@Delki-239: Sounds like you may have just pulled your Gluteus Maximus in the execution of that daring air punch. Judges will no doubt be impressed with the high level of difficulty. Expect 8′s and some 9′s.
13 Aug 2012, 13:17 pm
@rangerman-236:
Other funding is available through Our Lotteries Commission, and Charitable Trusts that profit through gambling machines. Gambling Taxes.
13 Aug 2012, 13:19 pm
all in all, i actually dont like watching sport that much.
i enjoy watching rugby and in fact its about the only sport i watch as i would much rather be out there doing sport instead.
i guess the olympics is a big deal but if i watched 25 mins this entire olympic games it was a lot.
to each there own i suppose.
13 Aug 2012, 13:19 pm
@>^..^< katman-231:
no
syncronised swimming is a dreamy event of majestic coordination and stunning aesthetics.
i will forever cherish the hapy moments of discovery, leading to realisation, of what is a stunning and all round enjoyable sport undertaken by such fine sportspeople at the olympics.
you will never take this away from me, it has touched me deeply.
13 Aug 2012, 13:20 pm
@cane-246: ours too cane.
ours too.
this discussion is rather dry though, lets rather talk about how the travel to argieland will affect the all blacks and aussies this year?
13 Aug 2012, 13:20 pm
I hope that delki did not help Hurricane to count how many homes and tv’s he has:-)
More interesting would be which sport burns the most calories over a avg time period for eg p/min.
Any answers?
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