Bet on Blacks
13 Aug 2012
RYAN VREDE writes the All Blacks will win the Rugby Championship comfortably, with the Springboks’ cause to be undermined by the absence of key players and the struggles of others.
I’ve written extensively that this tournament will be a greater measure of the new generation Springboks and coach Heyneke Meyer’s aptitude than the series against England was. England rarely exploited the Springboks’ vulnerabilities in the manner the southern hemisphere’s elite will do.
And there are certainly worrying vulnerabilities.
Injuries have robbed Meyer of the services of Schalk Burger (knee) and JP Pietersen (thumb). Burger’s industry and abrasiveness has been at the heart of the Springboks’ success, while Pietersen has been consistently impressive in recent months, looking to have recaptured an appetite for the game.
Elsewhere, dynamic prop Coenie Oosthuizen (neck) was important in their planning and strategy, while uncapped players like Duane Vermuelen and Johann Goosen would have been part of and indeed potentially amplified the Springboks’ strength – Goosen lending Meyer a different dimension at flyhalf to what Morne Steyn offers. These are significant losses.
Their challenge is compounded by the concerning form of their halfback pair, Francois Hougaard and Steyn, who are absolutely central to the success of their game plan.
The Springboks’ coaching team have deep reservations about Hougaard in particular. His tactical kicking has been poor and will only improve marginally with tailored coaching. Meyer has greater faith in Ruan Pienaar’s kicking game, but he only joins the squad this week and will not start against Argentina. How Hougaard responds to this challenge will be decisive to the longevity of his Test career.
Meyer’s confidence in Steyn remains high and he is optimistic that the break he had after the Bulls’ Super Rugby exit (his first in three seasons) will rejuvenate him. Steyn needs a good tournament for his own self belief, to repay the faith his coach will show in him and to stall the advance of Goosen, who, if fit, will be considered to start on the year-end tour to the UK.
A career defining tournament also awaits Andries Bekker, who missed the England series through injury. Bekker’s technical ability has never been in question but there are lingering concerns about his mental toughness in high pressure matches. Bekker will unseat Juandre Kruger at No. 5 lock and will be primarily tasked with engineering the Springboks’ dominance at lineouts, a facet of play they will place a premium on in the context of their game plan. He was supposed to be a natural successor to Victor Matfield but is in danger of being overwhelmed by Matfield’s legacy.
The Springboks will benefit from a favourable draw, which should see them make the early running with wins over Argentina. But they will struggle against the more settled Blacks, who, in the series sweep over Ireland in June, showed the benefits of continuity in coaching with Steve Hansen, the retention of the core of the World Cup winning side and the emergence of Test-standard rookies like Same Cane, Julian Savea, Ben Smith, Aaron Smith and Brodie Retallick. A positive prognosis on Kieran Read, who is becoming as influential for the side as Richie McCaw and Dan Carter, further improves their prospects.
Australia will take some beating, but don’t pose the threat the Blacks do. Argentina will take time to become accustomed to the unique demands of the tournament. They will be better placed in 2013, as will the Springboks.
This year though – bet on Blacks.
Probable Springboks 15 - 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Lwazi Mvovo, 13 Jean de Villiers, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
327 Comments
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13 Aug 2012, 13:22 pm
@RWC’11 was fixed-243:
there is a difference between ‘very good’ and ‘best’…
give your boet a call and ask him specifically what is BEST in terms of most muscles used AND overall fitness in terms of aerobics, stamina and suppleness…
will be surprised if he does not say swimming and gymnastics…
13 Aug 2012, 13:22 pm
@250 rowing??
13 Aug 2012, 13:22 pm
@rangerman-241: You guys alll still got that wrong
Who says the money we declare of having been spent actually all went into sports???? and not leaked large portion of it into some back pockets???
13 Aug 2012, 13:22 pm
@RWC’11 was fixed-243: p.s. Paul Chek was invloved with the Crusaders and All Blacks around 2003 when they were so strong. Apparently a lot of their superior conditioning at the time was thanks to him.
13 Aug 2012, 13:25 pm
@RWC’11 was fixed-243:
anyway… gotta go…
would be very interested to see/hear of any scientific evidence about this exercise thing…
i accepted the word of the lady i spoke to but did not interrogate her and ask for definitive proof…
cheers all…
13 Aug 2012, 13:25 pm
agreed, all blacks will walk it. SA struggled against a half decent english side.
13 Aug 2012, 13:27 pm
@ufo-251: I’ll ask him. I wonder how you actually measure it, because it can be subjective. But I am sure he will agree that gymnastics and swimming rank highly.
He is all about training the nervous system for sport performance. Big muscles don’t mean much if they are not trained correctly (i.e. bodybuilders are not very effective). Gymnasts have a highly developed nervous system.
13 Aug 2012, 13:28 pm
@cane-246:
fark, you would be a real beeatch to deal with in an interogation room.
keep talking, bumble.
*good cop goes out the room*
*bad cop – bing bop pow blamm whip slap snap pk.. double pk!!!!!*
*good cop – back in the and straight back out again*
*bad cop – bing bop pow blamm whip slap snap pk.. double pk, double pk!!!!!*
*bad cop to good cop: “dont bother coming in”*
*bad cop – bing bop pow blamm whip slap snap pk.. double pk!!!!!*
13 Aug 2012, 13:28 pm
If KP wanted to play for the Protea’s he would have to wait 4 years to qualify.
So he will only be eligible when his 36.
13 Aug 2012, 13:30 pm
Genade! When I see that probable team I feel a bit sick and nervous.
15, 11, 10, 9, 8 worries me A LOT. And 8, 9, 10 especially are so important for decision making and attacking capabilities…
13 Aug 2012, 13:33 pm
@bokfan1-260:
why stop there when you’re on a roll
keep going
tell us about numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12, 13 and 14
13 Aug 2012, 13:36 pm
@bokfan1-260: Agree, Spies and M Steyn don’t instill confidence.
But hopefully against the ABs and Aus, Vermeulen will replace Spies. Not sure if Goosen will be ready though.
Hopefully Coenie will be back, he is a great impact player.
13 Aug 2012, 13:39 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-261:
HM the messiah, has had 2 full weeks with the players.
According to some, the Boks haven’t been coached since 2007 so surely we cannot judged anything by past performances.
I
13 Aug 2012, 13:41 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-242:
The Medal/Population Chart. (Source….The guardian).
1 Grenada 0.1 1 0 0 1 1.0 9.5338
2 Jamaica 2.7 4 4 4 12 8.0 2.9518
3 Bahamas 0.3 1 0 0 1 1.0 2.8804
4 New Zealand 4.4 5 3 5 13 8.7 1.9669
5 Trinidad and Tobago 1.3 1 0 3 4 2.0 1.4854
6 Hungary 10.0 8 4 5 17 12.3 1.2366
7 Slovenia 2.1 1 1 2 4 2.3 1.1367
8 Montenegro 0.6 0 1 0 1 0.7 1.0534
9 Lithuania 3.2 2 1 2 5 3.3 1.0405
10 Denmark 5.6 2 4 3 9 5.7 1.0161
11 Croatia 4.4 3 1 2 6 4.3 0.9831
12 Australia 22.6 7 16 12 35 21.7 0.9573
.
.
.
..
.
28 Gabon 1.5 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.4341
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
62 The Republic of Eye Gougers* 50.6 3 2 1 6 4.7 0.0922
* Also know as RSA.
13 Aug 2012, 13:41 pm
@ufo-251:
Google V02max.
Generally considered to be the best test of cardio and muscular fitness.
Cycling, Triathlon, cross country skiing athletes apparently have the highest scores.
Apparently Big Mig Indurain (spanish cycling legend) had one of the highest ever scores. Along with one of the lowest resting heart beats. 24 beats per second or somewhere around there.
13 Aug 2012, 13:47 pm
@cane-264:
Well done NZ.
You must be so proud Cane.
13 Aug 2012, 13:47 pm
@cane-264: Yep, the Land of ugly women* achieved a lot of their medals in mostly “non-competitive” sports reserved for the elete with large sporting and personal budgets. So I am sorry, but I don’t think most people view the achievment up there with the likes of Grenada, Jamaca, Bahamas, etc.
* Also known as NZ
13 Aug 2012, 13:48 pm
Ryan jys full of sh*t, have faith… Thats rsa big problem, no one stands together… All turn on each others and always pestamistc.
13 Aug 2012, 13:49 pm
@Jeraldjay-263:
its ridiculous really.
but the funny part of this is that hm will exceed pdiv’s year 1 win record as well jake’s.
13 Aug 2012, 13:50 pm
@cane-264:
give us the numbers, funny man.
how much did you say?
50million?
really?
13 Aug 2012, 13:55 pm
I vote that ver spoeg be included as an olympic sport.Wind assisted adjusted
of course.
13 Aug 2012, 13:55 pm
Acccording to ESPN.
The Worlds most demanding sport is Boxing.
Based on strength, power, agility, flexibility, durability etc…….
Rugby came in at 13.
13 Aug 2012, 13:58 pm
@Jeraldjay-266:
I think Jamacan’s and Ugandans would be uplifted too.
13 Aug 2012, 13:59 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-270:
yip.
13 Aug 2012, 13:59 pm
New Zealand is seen as a safe place for tourists to visit. This is a bit of an illusion, most likely due to its relatively low population, as its Total crime rate per capita is actually the second highest in the world – second only to Dominica. Its actual crime rate is 105.881 crimes per 1,000 people. Some comparisons are listed below:
United Kingdom: 85.5517 per 1,000 people
USA: 80.0645 per 1,000 people
Switzerland: 36.1864 per 1,000 people
Russia: 20.5855 per 1,000 people
India: 1.63352 per 1,000 people
Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_New_Zealand's_crime_rate#ixzz23QXaQzGA
13 Aug 2012, 14:00 pm
@wait for it, wait for it…-270:
US$…………………………………..not that **** you call money.
13 Aug 2012, 14:00 pm
the cannibals aren’t so innocent afterall
13 Aug 2012, 14:03 pm
I just watched Under African Skies.
Tthe making of Graceland by Paul Simon.
Just wonderful.
13 Aug 2012, 14:06 pm
@cane-278: That was screened at a doccie festival here recently and I missed it. Really wanted to see it. That album – and also the ’86 concert in Harare – was something special.
13 Aug 2012, 14:08 pm
Rangerman @ 148.Totally envious.Where do you generally dive?
13 Aug 2012, 14:11 pm
@grant10-275: Interesting, I would not have thought that. I wonder where SA ranks.
I lived in SA for 23 years, NZ for 2 years and the UK for 14 years. I have been mugged once, guess where? Auckland.
13 Aug 2012, 14:12 pm
@>^..^< katman-279:
The program finished with the concert in Harare. (well almost).
13 Aug 2012, 14:12 pm
New Zealand just got another gold medal in ladies shotput. The first place winner has been disqualified for substance abuse… That is another gold to add to NZ… I think the athlete is Adams who now gets gold…
13 Aug 2012, 14:14 pm
@RWC’11 was fixed-281:
We had to get rid of you somehow Fixer.
13 Aug 2012, 14:15 pm
What is the point of insulting each other all day?? surely both countries have good and bad points??
13 Aug 2012, 14:18 pm
@cane-284: Haha, good point.
@sharks_lover-285: Yes, I actually love the kiwis, but a bit of rivalry is always good.
13 Aug 2012, 14:18 pm
@sharks_lover-285: JUSTSAYIN
13 Aug 2012, 14:19 pm
@cane-282: For me the pairing of Ray Phiri on guitar and Bakhiti Khumalo on bass made that album the musical masterpiece it is. Songwriting is good too, but those two were sublime.
13 Aug 2012, 14:21 pm
eight, nine and ten a real worry in the team above. Not overjoyed by number 15 either…
Anyways keeping faith…
13 Aug 2012, 14:24 pm
SHARKS-LOVER @ 285.Well said
13 Aug 2012, 14:26 pm
@cane-264: well done cane and all keewees….
.
we all know that the “Medal/Population Chart” is like the Paralympics of medal tally charts
13 Aug 2012, 14:27 pm
@>^..^< katman-288:
And they are still in good nick Katman. They were a joy to watch and listen too being interviewed
“Music is like prayer”.
But everything was good. It just worked.
Politics aside.
13 Aug 2012, 14:28 pm
Graceland one of best ever.Pity that political bullshit came from Black
people.
13 Aug 2012, 14:29 pm
@cane-264:
What is this silly medals by population table?
Sounds like the eternal lament of the under-endowed to me.
It’s not a good look for you Caner …
13 Aug 2012, 14:30 pm
@Transformation-291:
Good luck against Argentina Transie.
I understand THEY are at full strength.
So should be a good contest.
13 Aug 2012, 14:32 pm
@the artist formerly known as gunther-294:
I’ve never been one for “The Good Look” Gunna.
13 Aug 2012, 14:32 pm
@Transformation-291: Relax, I’m sure he’s going to post the Medal/Household Income chart soon. Followed by the Medal/Square km chart, the Medal/Average IQ chart and the Medal/People Suffering From Stress chart.
13 Aug 2012, 14:34 pm
@cane-295: thanks caner, will be there too…hope newlands is not as wet & cold as it was reported on saturday!
i’m sure father ted has given them a few pointers, should be tricky.
13 Aug 2012, 14:35 pm
@cane-276:
sweet jeezuz!
400 million on 200 participants and thats all you brought back?
good gawd!
and i know you lying about the number
i bet its even more
13 Aug 2012, 14:39 pm
A real pity our sports are played on tracks and fields and not in the halls of parliament. Because there we have meddles in just about everything.
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