Preview: Argentina vs Springboks
24 Aug 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Nothing that happened at Newlands was a surprise – not even the fact that the Springboks were patchy on attack and failed to bag the bonus-point. I don’t think that is going to be as decisive in the final analysis. That school of thought assumes that the Springboks will be close to New Zealand points-wise going into the final Test of the tournament in Soweto. This won’t be the case. The Blacks will already have bagged the title by then.
The Pumas will undoubtedly be buoyed by passionate home support and you can expect a reasonably strong challenge from their forwards. Their heavies would, however, have to make an exponential improvement in this facet of play to stand a chance of victory. That level of improvement is beyond them in a seven-day turnaround. One can also reasonably confidently assume the Springboks’ forwards would have made gains towards greater synergy.
Defence will be the root of their success, with their dominance there in general play ensuring consistently poor ball for a backline shorn of their most potent attacking weapon, Juan Martin Hernandez. Furthermore, the Springboks defied expectations that they would struggle at the set pieces and I don’t believe the Pumas will improve markedly in this regard. Halting the rolling maul will be a priority and much of this responsibility rests with Andries Bekker, whose reading of the defensive lineouts made the Pumas’ hookers resemble tanked-up darts players at times last week.
On attack, the inclusion of Jacques Potgieter at blindside flank will amplify the Springboks’ punch at the gainline, an area they dominated in Cape Town. This is important in light of what they lose in this regard with the absence of Bismarck du Plessis. The likes of Marcell Coetzee, Eben Etzebeth, Beast Mtawarira, Willem Alberts and Frans Steyn will be central to getting the Springboks the momentum they need in the collisions to ensure the back division has the space and time to execute the course of action they deem most appropriate. That said, the ball protection at the breakdown was inconsistent at Newlands and they must remedy this shortcoming.
The Springboks’ halfback pair played well in their opener and Francois Hougaard in particular must replicate his largely accurate tactical kicking for the Springboks’ game plan to work as envisioned. I think it will, and while this victory won’t be as comfortable as what they achieved last week in terms of the physical examination they face, the scoreline will reflect the Springboks’ superiority.
VREDE’S CALL: Springboks by 12
369 Comments
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24 Aug 2012, 12:26 pm
Springbok Dragons !!!!!
24 Aug 2012, 12:32 pm
As passionate as the Argies will be at home, I think this Bok squad will finally put two halves together and give them a bashing. Boks by 20 and a definite message will be sent to the AB’s who will struggle again to put away a VERY ordinary Oz rabble. No, I’m not wearing rose-coloured glasses – I just think that we have the players and the coach – albeit a very direct, percentage type of Test-rugby – to start challenging the AB’s for their current unchallenged place as # 1.
24 Aug 2012, 12:42 pm
@yank-2:
Cool.
To get to #1 you need to also beat # 2. Ozzies have found beating the Boks alot easier
than beating the ABs.
Dont get me wrong Boks have the goods to win and take #1 but to think Ozzie are
going to lie down and let that happen, sorry you have to learn to beat them first.
24 Aug 2012, 12:56 pm
@Hurricane-3: Agree, the Boks can’t underestimate the OZzeees. But I have a feeling, the next time they meet, there is going to be a lot of anger and blood (because of Bryce), with the Boks winning comfortably.
I may be wrong, because Aus teams in the past have been very shrewd at covering up their short commings and using their strengths. But under Deans, they don’t seem as capable.
Aus have had the wood over us rescently. I think PDivvy made the mistake of putting all the focus on NZ and not enough on Aus and underestimated them. I don’t see HM making the same mistakes.
24 Aug 2012, 13:08 pm
@Hurricane-3: Agreed.
24 Aug 2012, 13:25 pm
Can someone summarise Verede’s dribble into no more that 10 words – don’t feel like boring myself right not to watch that tv episode.
24 Aug 2012, 13:26 pm
Actually forget the summary – Vrede is insignificant.
24 Aug 2012, 13:28 pm
@RL-7: I don’t bother read the articles on keo, just here to read the blogs
24 Aug 2012, 13:29 pm
@RL-7: Boks can like to beat the Pumas by 12.
24 Aug 2012, 13:35 pm
@blik-8:
@kaksioek-9: 9 words excellent.
24 Aug 2012, 13:41 pm
The last two times the All Blacks played in Argentina, the scores were 25-19 and 24-20.
Argentina are a tough nut to crack over there.
24 Aug 2012, 13:42 pm
O-hell I see Vrede wrote words. Thought it was tv – makes no difference don’t read dribble anyway.
24 Aug 2012, 13:47 pm
@Tacitus-11: if memory serves me right the Argies sank the convicts in Buenos Aries.
24 Aug 2012, 13:51 pm
@RL-12: Yes they did
24 Aug 2012, 13:54 pm
In this context, a 10 point win would be a good one for the Boks.
24 Aug 2012, 14:11 pm
At least we’re playing in a town named after our biggest kwaito star. That must be worth at least 7 points.
24 Aug 2012, 14:14 pm
If we win this weekend, the win record is at 80%. The loss record at 0%.
24 Aug 2012, 14:18 pm
Boks by 15…
Any idea when Conrad Smith is back for the Blacks?
With this guy back partnering Nonu, it’ll certainly amplify their threat in the backs.
24 Aug 2012, 14:20 pm
@kaksioek-9: I have that margin on bru. I think they will too. I do hope they pick up the bonus point this week though. We let ourselves down by not getting that bonus point last week.
24 Aug 2012, 14:23 pm
And cut Vrede some slack guys…
He’s this sites premier journo, with Keo (a bit like John Smith) relying on past glories.
24 Aug 2012, 14:26 pm
@Tacitus-15: Only a bonus point win will be good for the Boks. If it means we win by one point, but pick up the bonus all good. If we win by 10 points without the bonus point that is not good enough. This is not the Winter Tours here when only a win that mattered. In this tourney we have to be scoring 4 tries against the weakest of the 4 teams. Bonus points will make the difference who wins this or not.
You do have to remember Jake won the Tri-Nations in his first year with a brand new team. I was expecting the same from Meyer. We could still do it if we pick up the bonus point tomorrow and beat Wallabies in Perth with a bonus point. However, we not really playing well enough right now to think that we will beat Oz and then with a bonus point too. Just have to see how we go from here.
24 Aug 2012, 14:27 pm
@Pot Blou Gevaar-20: Who is John Smith?
24 Aug 2012, 14:29 pm
Boks by 10-13
The London’s odds are on the Boks at 2:5, Steve Walsh will be less obvious in his swindle because he will feel intimidated at Mendoza, a blatant cheating like he has performed at Newlands may result in another Piet v. Zyl-McHugh stomping and Walsh is well aware of it
The down side will be another Bok forward or two will limp off, imagine facing the ABs without Bissie and Albert/Etzbeth
(Tackles made last Sat: Albert + Etzbeth in excess of 22 tackle in my count)
24 Aug 2012, 14:30 pm
@Puma-22:
Smit that is.
24 Aug 2012, 14:30 pm
@Puma-22:
It’s Conrad rather
The ABs and Hurricane’s outside centre
24 Aug 2012, 14:31 pm
Oh jeez, we have Walsh AGAIN! The SharkBoks will feel like he is part of the furniture……hahaha.
Had him for the semi/final of the S15 and our Bok game last week. And AGAIN this week…
24 Aug 2012, 14:32 pm
@Pot Blou Gevaar-24:
24 Aug 2012, 14:32 pm
@Puma-26:
Heyneke won’t mind him..
24 Aug 2012, 14:33 pm
@Hondo-25:
First pleasant post there guy.
Keep up the good work,
24 Aug 2012, 14:35 pm
@Tacitus-28: I know. Also we must know he rather well by now… haha. Well at least the SharkBoks. This is the 4th straight time we are having him.
24 Aug 2012, 14:36 pm
@Puma-30: meant – him rather well
24 Aug 2012, 14:37 pm
I would love it if we can be unbeaten after our Perth game.
That will then be 6 games, 0 losses.
The build up to the Kiwi test in Dunedin would be tremendous.
24 Aug 2012, 14:39 pm
Boks by 21. The team will be more cohesive this week and finish off oppurtunities.
24 Aug 2012, 14:41 pm
@Tacitus-32: Yes we must really target that game on the Australasian tour! It will give us confidence the following week against the All Blacks. Pity the house of joy doesnt exist anymore.
24 Aug 2012, 14:43 pm
@Puma-19: Well, it will be much tougher to score four tries against Argentina in Argentina. I can’t really see it happening. It could and should have happened in SA though.
24 Aug 2012, 14:44 pm
@Tacitus-32: So it would be. Also more so if we pick up a the bonus point tomorrow and again in Perth. ABs will pick up a bonus point tomorrow. That would put us level pegging. As they will pick up a bonus point against the Pumas as well. That would set up a magnificent game for Dunedin.
24 Aug 2012, 14:46 pm
@kaksioek-35: It should have happend last week if we protected our ball at the breakdown, especially on their line. Damn I felt mad we never got that try. We now straight on the back foot. Abs will get the 4 try bonus point against the Pumas home and away. We will have to hope we get it tomorrow otherwise we not gonna win this.
The way we played last week doubt we will win it though. Just hoping like crazy like all Boks Supporters are.
24 Aug 2012, 14:47 pm
@Puma-37: meant – happened
24 Aug 2012, 14:50 pm
@kaksioek-35: Weather looks good for Mendoza tomorrow. So who knows we just may get that bonus point. Hoping we do.
Looks like a superb stadium there too. All 45 thousand seats sold out. Great that.
24 Aug 2012, 14:52 pm
@Puma-37: I don’t think the Boks will win the comp this year, but I’m not sure that the ABs will score four tries against the Pumas in Argentina either. They will do it at home though, and they might beat the Boks home and away. If the Boks come close against the ABs I will be happy. I just wish the Boks posed a bit more of an attacking threat.
24 Aug 2012, 14:58 pm
@kaksioek-40: Yip I was hoping we could pose more of an attacking threat too. Especially after watching our Sharks play towards the end of the S15. Watching the Boks style of play compared to that is a bit of a let down to be honest.
Anyhow I think even with the kick, kick and crash ball game plan we will beat ABs at FNB this year. We play Wallabies the week before at Loftus. ABs that week are playing Pumas in Arg. We play on the Saturday they on the Sunday and they have to still travel. Only 6 days before the next game against us at Altitude. That I think could be the game we beat them. At Dunedin is is just wishful thinking. But who knows we may but doubt it.
24 Aug 2012, 15:03 pm
Forget the fancy stuff.
To beat the All Blacks, you have to disrupt their set phases and dominate them at the line out in particular. In other words, sow holy terror among them at line out time the likes of which Matfield handed out in 2009.
Basically, there ball was our ball too in that year. It was actually comical to behold the whites in the eyes of the All Black hooker when he had to throw the ball in at the line out.
If you break their confidence early, they tend to wilt under the pressure.
If Andries can’t start duplicating those kind of feats, we will come close, but struggle to pull off victories against them anytime soon.
24 Aug 2012, 15:04 pm
@Tacitus-42:
there = their.
24 Aug 2012, 15:06 pm
@Puma-22: the dude from Pocahontas
24 Aug 2012, 15:17 pm
@Tacitus-42: nope to beat the all blacks you have to win the breakdown. their entire game is based on breakdown dominance thats why the created so many illegal breakdown tactics in 2010! in all other areas of play new zealand are just average. so much leniency creates the illusion that they are so great. australia are as you say a fkin gaggle of headless chooks up the pole sad to say.
24 Aug 2012, 15:20 pm
@kaksioek-40: you dont win comps by having big attacking threat you first have to have defence. unfortunately thats what went down the slasher under peter from half of 2009 onwards. we can give new zealand a damn good going over but will they be reffed evenly? thats the big qestion as far im concerned. if you look at the two big losses in 2010 the boks were pap but new zealand only had one total from both games that didnt come from from very illegal play. they are not fkin gods you know they are average and they dont deserve praise for their fkin arrogance and cheating.
24 Aug 2012, 15:20 pm
@Blitzbok-45:
But here’s the interesting part. That’s exactly what Heyneke is aiming to achieve with his gainline dominance, collision dominance, quick ruck ball approach.
The fact that we haven’t achieved it yet except for 40 minutes in the 2nd England test doesn’t mean that this isn’t what we’re working towards.
24 Aug 2012, 15:21 pm
@Blitzbok-45: I am not so sure….they seem to be more off load/contunuity orientated…..on defence they compete a lot at the breakdown but on attack they seem to avoid rucks if they can
24 Aug 2012, 15:24 pm
@Blitzbok-46: We don’t seem to obstruct as much as the ABs do, actually we don’t use that tactic at all as far as I can see. Not sure why the reffs don’t see it, or choose to ignore it.
24 Aug 2012, 15:25 pm
@Puma-21: pumas are not the weakest of the four teams they are just behind the boks with arsetralia well behind. the only obstacle these argies have is fatigue they dont have the conditioning i think and that will count against them but then they finish at home where both australia and new zealand always struggle to pull off a win so that levels it out in my opinion.
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