Preview: Wallabies vs Springboks
6 Sep 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Will it matter? Will it matter how the Springboks win this Saturday in Perth?
The Boks desperately need a start; they need a win, however ugly, against top-flight opposition.
They’re playing in a city that has been kind to visiting South African teams in the past, and that will inspire them to believe another win is possible.
However, they haven’t beaten Australia or New Zealand Down Under since September 2009, and haven’t beaten Australia since September 2010. Those are facts and statistics that would shake the confidence of any team, especially one that is short on synergy and experience.
Coach Heyneke Meyer has made some prudent changes, but this new side cannot be expected to gel immediately. It is for this reason that the Boks may stick to their simple game plan, despite the calls to vary their play.
Execution has been a problem as has consistency over the past five Tests. The Boks can be brutally effective when they get it right, and this was evident, albeit in short bursts, during the series against England. They will need to be clinical at the breakdown against Australia, and will need to show more grunt at the collisions than they did against Argentina.
The Boks aren’t anywhere near their fearsome best, but then neither are the Wallabies. It’s for this reason that a trend-breaking win is not impossible for South Africa, especially when one looks at the make-up of both forward packs.
Duane Vermeulen should have been a Springbok three years ago, and deserves his place at No 8. He’s played several matches for Western Province since returning from a serious knee injury, and some feel that he should be gradually introduced to Test rugby. Wrong.
Vermeulen is the kind of player that needs to start, he is not a man to play from the bench. He is best utilised when the game is tight, he is a powerful player that will get you over the gainline in a tight scrap. His momentum-halting defence is just as valuable in such a physical clash. On top of all of that, he’s a great option at the tail of the lineout.
David Pocock isn’t playing in this match. I repeat, David Pocock, the best openside on the planet, the bane of the Boks’ existence over the past three seasons, is not playing in this match. Stow the infantile Bryce Lawrence rhetoric and embrace the fact that Pocock cost the Boks a place in the World Cup semi-finals.
That special player isn’t available to the Wallabies this Saturday, and that is a massive plus for South Africa.
I’m not convinced that Michael Hooper will translate his Super Rugby form to the Test stage. For this reason, the Wallabies should be worried, because Hooper cannot play more than one role.
Hooper is an out-and-out fetcher, and you won’t seem him defending or carrying the ball like Pocock or the Boks’ Francois Louw. It will be a problem for the Wallabies, especially if their pack as a collective does not dominate the collisions.
Radike Samo was fantastic in the 2011 Super Rugby tournament, but his age has started to show in 2012. Like Hooper, Dave Dennis has yet to prove that he belongs at this level.
Willem Alberts will be back at his favourite position of blindside flank, and determined to replicate his performances against England. Marcell Coetzee will also be looking for a better showing, and with Vermeulen now in the mix, it looks to be the most balanced back row the Boks have fielded this year.
Meyer has decided to back Coetzee as a starter, but Louw should be introduced at some stage. It could be that Coetzee shifts to blindside and Alberts to No 8 in such event. The pressure will be on Meyer to make the right calls in terms of new combinations in the second half. There are some talented players on the Bok bench, and how Meyer deploys them (ie in which combination or role) will play a big part in the final result.
While the Wallabies are lacking a few big name players, they will always be favourites at home and it’s going to be another tight scoreline. It won’t be enough that the Bok forwards dominate, the halfbacks will need to take the right options, and Morné Steyn will have to kick his goals.
How will Meyer react if Steyn has another off night with the boot? It will be interesting to see if he brings the uncapped Goosen right into the mix, or trusts in Frans Steyn, Ruan Pienaar or another reserve in Pat Lambie to shoot for goal. This is another big call that will need to be made if Steyn suffers another mental lapse.
It’s going to be desperate, its going to be ugly, but it’s going to be a start. This Saturday, winning is all that matters, and the Boks should do enough to achieve that objective.
JC’S CALL: Boks by 3
Wallabies – 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Dominic Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson
Subs: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Scott Higginbotham, 19 Liam Gill, 20 Nick Phipps, 21 Mike Harris
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Pat Cilliers, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Francois Louw, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Pat Lambie, 22 Lwazi Mvovo.
190 Comments
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6 Sep 2012, 05:06 am
swap:
morne with gooosen, vermeaulen with coetzee, kirtchner with lambie, coetzee with flo
subs:
vermeulen for alberts to keep up the beating but goes to 8, coetzee moves to 6 with mvovo coming on for habana if he’s struggling
6 Sep 2012, 05:40 am
Oz by 15+
6 Sep 2012, 05:44 am
@youwha, you seriously need to practise your spelling. However, I’d personally only swap zane with lambie, Duane deserves his place in the starting line up, and let’s see what Morne has left, if he plays like ****, sub him after 40 min, its a bit too much for Goosen to start from word go, especially against Aus.
6 Sep 2012, 05:49 am
” I repeat, David Pocock, the best openside on the planet” – give me richie any day of the week!
6 Sep 2012, 05:52 am
guess that make Tim Noakes and I pretty infantile together, we often like to label cheaters as cheaters …………….and when someone cheats well I guess it is pretty infantile
6 Sep 2012, 05:56 am
brace yourself John cause its coming around again ahem in the words of Kevin Bloody Wilson “you can stick that fucken Lawrence up your ******* arse”
6 Sep 2012, 06:04 am
You are wrong on Hooper. He is a much better ball carrier than Pocock.
6 Sep 2012, 06:08 am
Boks by 5. Vermeulen and Flo to make the difference.
6 Sep 2012, 06:11 am
“JC’S CALL: Boks by 3″ – This assumes the Wallabies do not improve their play from their previous two matches; are they not battle hardened by defeats to the world’s No 1 team? it also assumes that Heyneke can extricate himself from the following mess:
his Blue Bulls bias;
his contradictory public statements & deflections;
preferential treatment of M Steyn, J Potgieter, F Hougaard;
poor treatment of mvovo, lambie, elton, keegan, bekker (the list will continue to grow);
mortgaging the future of the team just to keep M Steyn playing;
Double standards in selection in favour of blue bulls players
6 Sep 2012, 06:16 am
Here’s my prediction:
I agree. The boks will take this one and I wouldnt be surprised if its achieved by MS having a good day with the boot, thanks to a dominating forwards pack.
With Pienaar’s boot from the base and quick ball the boks will win the territorial battle. The lineouts with Kruger back will be our best attacking platform. I predict a try via maul in the first 10 min. Expect a lot of mauls. On defense the boks are going to suffocate the Aussie’s backs and force mistakes, this is where Hougaard’s mongrel instinct will be most valuable.
The Aussies are hurting and seem very desperate. The boks are desperate too, but it looks like this Aus team is at the point where they will self destruct if the boks play good rugga and deny them any points in the first 30 min. You can sense the panic and pressure on the players with a coach who doesnt have any more life lines… Cooper to have a shocker.
The subs will keep the pressure tight in the second half. Flo to show is worth in the last 30 min. Goosen will probably get 5 min.
Boks by 18. IMO
6 Sep 2012, 06:18 am
@viewer I call bull shite. The only Bulls players in the mix are the stand-out players such as morne, hougie, etc. The other jackals from the Bulls side that were in the team against Argentina like jj engelbrecht have gone back to the Bulls camp. The Bulls players that are there, deserve to be there, it is nonsence to assume the only reason they are there is because an ex-bulls coach is now the Springbok coach.
6 Sep 2012, 06:20 am
frikin heck pocock is not the best frikin opensider in the world you dumb dumb dodo bird. and the aussies are looking pretty frikin weak. boks pounded these losers last year and a reputation of pocock was blown up. boks should blerry take it if its a fair fight but you never know in convict or mudd-island territory hardly anyone gets a fair game there. facts, facts and more facts to add to that
6 Sep 2012, 06:20 am
preview on post match heading: “HUILIGE HEYNEKE SE HIDING”
Aus by +10 this weekend
to be followed by: “HUILIGE HEYNEKE KRY NOG N HIDING”
NZ by +25 next weekend
6 Sep 2012, 06:22 am
@Jeez-10: aussies need space and they will get it from that kak jean there but we see what the boks cook up and i hope duane steps up we need a 8 badly, likely really, really badly. havent had one since big joe
6 Sep 2012, 06:23 am
@RAI8-3: ha ha yes that was a fat-finger response so excuse the spelling. I only had Duane as a sub to ease him back in to test rugby otherwise for me he has to start at 8 (until the penny drops and Marcell is selected as an 8!). Disagree about Morne as he’s had enough chances now, Goosen is the future and so is Roast and Elton so if Goosen has been earmarked as next in line for a go on this tour then I think he must start now using Morne as cover should he struggle.
6 Sep 2012, 06:23 am
Jeez are you on the sauce Bokke by 18 lol
6 Sep 2012, 06:25 am
I add S Kolisi, J de Jongh to the “collateral damage list” & hope Big Duane, F Louw, J Goosen survive Meyer’s scorched earth policy. There’s a truckload of karma headed Heyneke’s way
6 Sep 2012, 06:26 am
@capetown-13: only way mudd-island can win is by cheating and the ref turning his head the other way as usual. the only frikin way! but hey thats the rugby of today a cheap frikin joke run by cheap frikin loserz.
6 Sep 2012, 06:26 am
@viewer-17: karma? you are frikin stooooooooooooopid
6 Sep 2012, 06:28 am
@viewer-9:
Give it some time. The squad is slowly evolving…
HM knows Goosen is the future at 10, so why give false hope to Lambie or Jantjies. Goosen would have been there from the start if he wasnt injured. Steyn was given an opportunity due to his experience and now that Goosen is in the mix that door is closing fast. The rookie should always take over from a guy with the most experience. This is starting to happen.
Vermeulen in for Spies, Potgieter’s spot will be forfeited when Burger is fit again. Bekker’s form is not what is should be so he should be dropped. Kruger was far better against ENgland and shouldnt have been dropped.
Hougaard is a quality player (is obviously there on merit and not because he’s a blue bull) and needed a chance, HM gave it to him and he didnt use it.
Kirchner didnt do much wrong and Lambies has had limited game time and had a shocker in the super rugby final.
Flo’s selection is reassuring proof that HM believes in having a fetcher in the team. Brussouw will probably play at the EOTYT.
6 Sep 2012, 06:29 am
Blitzbok I think you might be a loser as well buddy
6 Sep 2012, 06:32 am
If he believed in a fetcher why didnt he pick one from the beginning, hes selecting and hoping by the looks of it.
6 Sep 2012, 06:33 am
@viewer, siya kholisi is injured, HM said he would have included him, had he not broken his finger. J de jong will not take the captains place in the team, and will never take frans steyn out. Ever.
6 Sep 2012, 06:35 am
@RAI8 – morne is a “stand-out” player in your estimation? Did you see him fall apart against the ‘saders in the play-off? He had a meltdown. Ditto the EP Test vs Eng. Coach said he’ll get him playing right again because he’s worked with him before at the Bulls. Is that fair?
By the way I rate JJ Engelbrecht. Disagree with his axing.
6 Sep 2012, 06:40 am
RA18 so even if Steyns form drops away he’ll never get dropped, why does this guy have idol status in SA he’s done nothing since O7. He’s a 15 not a 12.
6 Sep 2012, 06:47 am
@viewer, im not arguing, morne has played rubbish lately, but its a mental thing, HM will sort him out, he has improved since super rugby so I’d keep him there until goosen is comfortable with the pressures of test rugby, which in my opinion wont take very long.
@nzinchina, did you see frans in the world cup last year? Have you watched ANY of his games for racing metro? He is a perfect 12 and is such a good distributor of the ball in that position, and runs well on crash ball. He is, however, as you say, a great 15 too though, but IMO he’s a better 12.
6 Sep 2012, 06:50 am
“Give the coach time” ? 2004 ABs had a new coaching team & poor 3N campaign. In response, there was a literal clear out of the team. The likes of xavier rush, carlos spencer, andrew merhtens, sam tuitupo & others were permanently axed.
I’d say Heyneke’s had enough time already
6 Sep 2012, 06:56 am
@25 NZ
Willem Alberts & F Steyn are indispensable in the current team. Provide a lot of go forward
6 Sep 2012, 07:01 am
@viewer-27:
If it was up to you the boks will probably have a different coach every weekend..
6 Sep 2012, 07:06 am
@Captain Sam Vimes-5: Oh yeah? Looks like you & Noakes both read Oscar Pistorius’s new best seller: “How to lose gracefully”…
6 Sep 2012, 07:07 am
The Australians will be extremely desperate and I think some of you South Africans are underestimating this. They have been flogged non-stop in the media over here and their coach has copped the most. The Aussies will be running those big Saffa forwards all over the place and I can see Vermulean and co looking to the sidelines after 20 minutes for a breather. I cant see them losing against this promising, but very raw Bok team. I reckon OZ by 8
6 Sep 2012, 07:11 am
Who’s the boks kicking coach? Louis Koen?
6 Sep 2012, 07:19 am
@Jeez – :> Yeah New innovation! let’s have reserve coaches. Put Heyneke on the bench Lambie-style. We’ll call him up against Romania or Georgia
6 Sep 2012, 07:19 am
poor wittle china
what’s happened to bp?
are you bp?
6 Sep 2012, 07:33 am
Bakkies you never gave me your rating as per your scale on Mallet last night, was it poor or very poor?
6 Sep 2012, 07:40 am
Wallabies by 7. They will be more desperate.
6 Sep 2012, 07:41 am
i did china, go check the posts.
whats your point?
honestly, between the two of us… you’re the bigger doos…
6 Sep 2012, 07:43 am
so what was it then?
6 Sep 2012, 08:02 am
china’s made you lazy boet.
go look it up.
6 Sep 2012, 08:04 am
The messiah is going to take a lot of flak if the team fails against the Ozzies and AB’s. He rewards poor form when the player is a Bull and drops those who are not. Very consistent indeed.
Good luck Boks! You gonna need it…
6 Sep 2012, 08:06 am
Creative back-play the South African way
Box kick or bomb
Intercept try
Charge down
Drop goal
Australia to stuff yous with a 4 try bonus point win
6 Sep 2012, 08:09 am
I’ll speculate, poor?
6 Sep 2012, 08:09 am
heard NZ will perform a special haka for all the boers killed in SA – boer genocide! respect NZ!!!!!!!!!!!!
6 Sep 2012, 08:10 am
@Gumboots-40:
boks will win in perth but i dont see them winning in nz. i would like them to but it’ll be an against the oods surprise.
6 Sep 2012, 08:11 am
yes
6 Sep 2012, 08:11 am
but still better than kirwan
6 Sep 2012, 08:23 am
cool, I have a busy day/night ahead so I am signing off have a good one mate
6 Sep 2012, 08:29 am
you too, china
just to be clear, because we’re being civil enough to greet one another does not mean we have to like each other, cheers.
6 Sep 2012, 08:37 am
Delusional Bok fans
Vermeulen is not superman,he will probably last about 50-60mins and even then he will struggle.
Bok loose trio is STILL imbalanced
Bok tight 5 has hardly been effective and will dominate no one at present,ruck ball will be dominated by Hooper
Frans Louw also hasn’t played Ina while,saw him in John Smit testimonial.
Pienaar has never excelled at international level and along with Morne at present you have the 2 most mentally fragile players running the Bok ship….
Midfield hasn’t produced a linebreak in 5 tests and back 3 will get no ball as usual
Oz bench much stronger than Bok one as well and why is Goosen and Lambie on the same bench…????
Add the fact that Boks will kick away 70% percent of their possession and will got panic stations later when oz go up more than 10 points and put on Goosen/Lambie and play hester skelter
Aus by 12-15
6 Sep 2012, 08:43 am
@spartan-41: “stuff yous” sounds like you have been frequenting the “Tool Box” a little too much.
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