Preview: Wallabies vs Springboks
6 Sep 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Will it matter? Will it matter how the Springboks win this Saturday in Perth?
The Boks desperately need a start; they need a win, however ugly, against top-flight opposition.
They’re playing in a city that has been kind to visiting South African teams in the past, and that will inspire them to believe another win is possible.
However, they haven’t beaten Australia or New Zealand Down Under since September 2009, and haven’t beaten Australia since September 2010. Those are facts and statistics that would shake the confidence of any team, especially one that is short on synergy and experience.
Coach Heyneke Meyer has made some prudent changes, but this new side cannot be expected to gel immediately. It is for this reason that the Boks may stick to their simple game plan, despite the calls to vary their play.
Execution has been a problem as has consistency over the past five Tests. The Boks can be brutally effective when they get it right, and this was evident, albeit in short bursts, during the series against England. They will need to be clinical at the breakdown against Australia, and will need to show more grunt at the collisions than they did against Argentina.
The Boks aren’t anywhere near their fearsome best, but then neither are the Wallabies. It’s for this reason that a trend-breaking win is not impossible for South Africa, especially when one looks at the make-up of both forward packs.
Duane Vermeulen should have been a Springbok three years ago, and deserves his place at No 8. He’s played several matches for Western Province since returning from a serious knee injury, and some feel that he should be gradually introduced to Test rugby. Wrong.
Vermeulen is the kind of player that needs to start, he is not a man to play from the bench. He is best utilised when the game is tight, he is a powerful player that will get you over the gainline in a tight scrap. His momentum-halting defence is just as valuable in such a physical clash. On top of all of that, he’s a great option at the tail of the lineout.
David Pocock isn’t playing in this match. I repeat, David Pocock, the best openside on the planet, the bane of the Boks’ existence over the past three seasons, is not playing in this match. Stow the infantile Bryce Lawrence rhetoric and embrace the fact that Pocock cost the Boks a place in the World Cup semi-finals.
That special player isn’t available to the Wallabies this Saturday, and that is a massive plus for South Africa.
I’m not convinced that Michael Hooper will translate his Super Rugby form to the Test stage. For this reason, the Wallabies should be worried, because Hooper cannot play more than one role.
Hooper is an out-and-out fetcher, and you won’t seem him defending or carrying the ball like Pocock or the Boks’ Francois Louw. It will be a problem for the Wallabies, especially if their pack as a collective does not dominate the collisions.
Radike Samo was fantastic in the 2011 Super Rugby tournament, but his age has started to show in 2012. Like Hooper, Dave Dennis has yet to prove that he belongs at this level.
Willem Alberts will be back at his favourite position of blindside flank, and determined to replicate his performances against England. Marcell Coetzee will also be looking for a better showing, and with Vermeulen now in the mix, it looks to be the most balanced back row the Boks have fielded this year.
Meyer has decided to back Coetzee as a starter, but Louw should be introduced at some stage. It could be that Coetzee shifts to blindside and Alberts to No 8 in such event. The pressure will be on Meyer to make the right calls in terms of new combinations in the second half. There are some talented players on the Bok bench, and how Meyer deploys them (ie in which combination or role) will play a big part in the final result.
While the Wallabies are lacking a few big name players, they will always be favourites at home and it’s going to be another tight scoreline. It won’t be enough that the Bok forwards dominate, the halfbacks will need to take the right options, and Morné Steyn will have to kick his goals.
How will Meyer react if Steyn has another off night with the boot? It will be interesting to see if he brings the uncapped Goosen right into the mix, or trusts in Frans Steyn, Ruan Pienaar or another reserve in Pat Lambie to shoot for goal. This is another big call that will need to be made if Steyn suffers another mental lapse.
It’s going to be desperate, its going to be ugly, but it’s going to be a start. This Saturday, winning is all that matters, and the Boks should do enough to achieve that objective.
JC’S CALL: Boks by 3
Wallabies – 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Dominic Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson
Subs: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Scott Higginbotham, 19 Liam Gill, 20 Nick Phipps, 21 Mike Harris
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Pat Cilliers, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Francois Louw, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Pat Lambie, 22 Lwazi Mvovo.
190 Comments
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6 Sep 2012, 08:56 am
I will watch the game first before I give my opinion.
6 Sep 2012, 08:57 am
@mshiniwami-49:
Arent you just a tad pessimistic ?
6 Sep 2012, 09:00 am
Pretty brave calling a Bok win given their form. As for Hooper, he’ll be at the breakdowns like a jack russel. Samo will carry the ball forward for Aus. I’d like the Boks to win but my pick is Aus x 6
6 Sep 2012, 09:05 am
@greegs-53: My money is still on the boks, we will have a slight edge in the first phase (Timani is very green at lock) and if we arrive int he right frame of mind should dominate the collisions, if we dominate the collisions then Hooper is negated.
6 Sep 2012, 09:11 am
“However, they haven’t beaten Australia or New Zealand Down Under since September 2009, and haven’t beaten Australia since September 2010″
I also believe that was the last time the Boks scored a try against the Wallabies.
6 Sep 2012, 09:16 am
This will be a blood and guts test match , down to the wire , both teams need this more than anybody thinks , Aus by 2
6 Sep 2012, 09:17 am
Game could go either way,home advantage to Aus but Boks have good record in Perth,gonna be desperation from both teams for a win,BMT will win this one,so whoever handles the pressure better.
6 Sep 2012, 09:18 am
@Gumboots-40:
Bill, I see you’ve become very negative of late (after the Mendoza game) towards HM his selections and gameplan.
Lets see what happens over the next few weeks then make your judgement.
I’ll always back our national coach whether his pink, grey or yellow, whether he comes from Riviersonderend or Poffadder.
I’ll make my call after the Soccercity game.
6 Sep 2012, 09:25 am
@Jeez-20: it’s got nothing to do with giving false hope to Lambie or Jantjies and everything to do with giving guys a chance that deserve it and being prepared for all eventualities!
Look@the All Blacks, Dan Carter gets injured and they’re not stressed as Cruden has already amassed 13 caps and Barret is on bench, and Barret had more than a full half against the Irish!
6 Sep 2012, 09:30 am
I must admit to being confused about this game…..a desperate Bok side is a dangerous team….no doubt…..but the Aussies may be even more desperate…
Then we have the handbrake M Steyn and the lack of balance amongst the loosies….
Strauss is still doubtful as well…..
Bissy is such a huge loss …
Seriously would not risk a 10 c bet on this game…..havent a farken clue …
6 Sep 2012, 09:31 am
the 1 good thing is game in Perth….if in Brisbane or Sydney I would be swayed to the Aussie side…
6 Sep 2012, 09:31 am
I really feel for Goosen – he has already been anointed as the chosen one by all the fans, based on some Currie Cup games and half a super rugby season. I shudder for the day he does something foolish in a green jersey.
Anybody remember Frans Steyn? Hope the guy is made from real stern stuff mentally – he is going to need it when the very fans turn on him.
I do think the guy is really talented, and if managed correctly will do well for SA.
6 Sep 2012, 09:32 am
@RAI8-23: lol@saying he would’ve played Kolisi…HM says a lot of things but his track record shows he can’t be trusted,unfortunately
6 Sep 2012, 09:35 am
The Aussies have one of the most limiting back rows in the world, yes they have a great fetcher in Pocock, and young up and coming fetchers in Hooper and Gill. But, they lack a decient ball carriers. Higgenbothem is a dud, Samo is old and their best #4 lock is injured.
Their backline is a poor shadow of an Aussie backline, Ash-Cooper is playing poor, Beale is a disaster and no O’Connel/ Cooper makes this a very limited backline. Only danger is the two wings.
If the boks execute well, don’t kick ball away and play with determination and purpose then we should win, even with this poor gameplan. What am I saying, kicking the ball away is the freaking gameplan!!!!
6 Sep 2012, 09:37 am
@goodstuff-64: Beale has a pretty good record against the Boks – he always seem to shine against us
6 Sep 2012, 09:42 am
..
More TeamsNew ZealandSouth Africa….Former Springbok prop Cobus Visagie shares his thoughts on the Rugby Championship in the third instalment of a series of exclusive columns for Planet Rugby.
I never thought I would say this, but an exhilarating opening weekend of the Aviva Premiership and the triumph of running rugby over structured monotony in the Currie Cup demolition of the Blue Bulls by Western Province were a much needed reminder that it is still possible to play the game with ball in hand and win by considerable margins. You can’t compare Test rugby with club rugby, but the principle and certainly the intention remains.
There has only been one team in the Rugby Championship so far that has shown any real enterprise and confidence to back their skills and attack space when it is on. Even though they have beaten the Wallabies 27-19 and 22-0 to open their Rugby Championship campaign, I am sure All Blacks coach Steve Hansen will not be content with their accuracy thus far, even though they have looked extremely dangerous at times.
The game at Eden Park was a strange affair with both sides underperforming in areas where they have normally dominated in recent years. The Kiwi scrum was untidy and under pressure at times until Wyatt Crockett left the field and the Franks brothers joined forces in the second-half. On the other hand the Wallaby line-out that normally functions like clockwork under the leadership of Nathan Sharpe was a complete shambles on attack and the All Blacks competed brilliantly to take advantage. It was one of the main reasons the Wallabies could not build any momentum or secure field position in the match.
The All Blacks also uncharacteristically botched several try-scoring chances, but they have another full-strength side available for the clash against the Pumas in Wellington on Saturday and I am sure they will have a massive focus on finishing their hard earned opportunities with clinical precision. Although they will be missing Sonny Bill Williams, who probably played the best Test match of his career in my opinion (and he would have received even more praise in post-match reports if his team-mates were able to score from all the try-scoring opportunities) his replacement, Conrad Smith, is one of the toughest centres in world rugby and the type of character that will take the game to the Argentinians.
The Pumas have shown that they learn fast and even though the Springboks were hopeless in Mendoza, they gave themselves the best possible chance to achieve a memorable victory on home soil by disrupting the Springboks’ speed of attack through targeting the breakdowns. That being said, I just cannot see the Pumas playing with the same confidence they showed in the quarter-finals of the World Cup last year against the eventual world champions where they started with a real bang and put the All Blacks under pressure for a considerable part of the game.
The return of Juan Martin Hernández from his groin strain may even prove to be a curse rather than a blessing, because the monotonous high ball tactic of the Pumas will most certainly be counterproductive against Israel Dagg and his compatriots in the All Black back-three. Holding on to possession will be worth a whole lot more to them than to hope for an odd mistake from the home back-three.
Although I expect the Pumas to improve over the course of the Championship, they will face an All Black side this weekend that is confident and with lots of competition across most positions, but far from satisfied with their performance so far. I cannot see them misfiring three weeks in a row in the accuracy department and a four-try bonus-point victory is surely on the cards and hopefully a more spectator friendly encounter.
The battle between the two teams in Perth this week is a completely different ball game with both players and management under considerable pressure, even though they are still in the enviable position of being number two and three in the world.
I see a disturbing trend developing in the communication from the Springbok management where they are talking up the strengths of the opposition to such a level that expectations are rock bottom and I think it may even start to impact the players’ expectations. Statements from Heyneke Meyer that the Wallabies “have a very good pack” is a good example of ridiculous praise to lower the expectations of the media and public of South African dominance in the set-piece.
It is true that the current Wallabies can make history against the Springboks in Perth with a fifth successive triumph against South Africa and that the Boks have won only one out of their last seven encounters, but it is also the same Wallaby side that has not been able to score a single point in their last game against the All Blacks in 50 years. It is clear the Springbok management and SA media has more respect for the Aussie outfit at the moment than their own supporters.
Expectations were sky high when two SA sides made it through to the Super Rugby semi-finals and the abundance of especially young forwards showing immense promise in the competition. But now we are stuck with a young, inexperienced side peppered with youngsters on their first Australasian tour and expectations are well and truly low. True scholars of the game cannot see in their minds eye the Springboks performing much better than the Bulls performed against the Crusaders in Christchurch. We are stuck with Bulls players at 10 and 15 that are so one dimensional that the opposition coaches can go back to their opposition analysis pre-2007 to remind their new players what to expect.
But today is a better day for SA Rugby, there is a little bit of hope. Possibly Rassie Erasmus broke through the Bulls grip on proceedings and for the first time the selectors has shown some nous by the inclusion of Duane Vermeulen at eight and Francois Louw and Johan Goosen on the bench. Every single change was much needed and gives hope to supporters who have long been hoping for Hougaard to move with his X-factor to the wing and Ruan Pienaar to control the game from the base. The most important change I still want to see is the Boks most talented back, Frans Steyn, at full-back where he can have a bigger impact on the game and make sides reconsider if they want to play a kicking game against South Africa.
The inclusion of Louw is a much-needed addition to the squad and the management deserves credit for a move that must have taken some determination to push through the political issue surrounding the inclusion of a foreign-based player. The bottom line is that apart from passing, catching and tackling, the breakdown is the event with the highest occurrence in the game of rugby. If you cannot control this area, you can’t control the game and it is the area where the All Blacks are leading the way in international rugby. Both Vermeulen, although he still on the comeback from injury and Louw who is at the start of his season, are players that will play to the ball and will give the Boks the best possible chance to control the frantic pace with which the Wallabies would like to play the game.
As mentioned earlier about the Wallabies’ lack of control in the Bledisloe Cup game, dominance of the line-out will be the other imperative area to dominate in Perth to secure victory – for the Springboks it is more about field position and for the Aussies it is more about continuity and attack. Andries Bekker played as badly in Mendoza as he was good in the first game at Newlands and the inclusion of Juandre Kruger is another good move and he will be the main cog in the machine that will need to function and dominate for the Springbok game plan to work. It is going to be an epic battle and will have a significant bearing on second place in the tournament, but on paper the more experienced Aussies must be favourites.
Until next week, cheers!
Cobus
6 Sep 2012, 09:45 am
@mshiniwami-49: Love the comment about why Lambie and Goosen are on the same bench…makes no sense@All
6 Sep 2012, 09:46 am
I see Moore is out for the Wallabies.
Polotu Nau to start at hooker.
Polotu Nau is hugely underated I think.
Superb with ball in hand and a properly devastating tackler, goes flying in and usuall comes off second best with a concussion or some sort of injury.
Pure hooking skills need work though, throwing in and scrummaging etc.
Mmm things just got more interesting.
6 Sep 2012, 09:49 am
@grant10-66: Brilliant article
6 Sep 2012, 09:52 am
@John Galt-68: I reckon this is a bit of a gap for us, with Timani at lock and Polotu0nau’s suspect throwing this could help us get first phase dominance……Kruger needs to have a big game here!
6 Sep 2012, 09:54 am
Great article. He’s so spot on about 10 and 15 being so one-dimensional and uninspiring you just want to shoot yourself in the head. Well, thats my take.
6 Sep 2012, 09:58 am
@Skeppie-70: @Spiesisworthless1-71:
Yes…..10 is a massive issue
and Mallet and Versagie agree about the absolute neccessity for the deck players….
as do Deans and Hansen…..
Hopefully HM sees the light a sap….
geat to see Brussow back this weekend..
6 Sep 2012, 10:01 am
@grant10-72: Yup for me those are the only two glaring selections (and possibly 15). I would like to see Flo starting this weekend with Lambie at 10.
6 Sep 2012, 10:08 am
its a good article but i disagree about frans being moved to fullback.
rather get pat in at 15 and remove morne as quick as possible.
then frans will fire.
6 Sep 2012, 10:10 am
It has been a while since the Boks had such a great opportuinity to beat the Wallabies in Aus. With the Australian team in such utter dissary the Boks should have been perfectly poised to take advantage and score a memorable win on Ausie soil.
Just a pity the Boks are not in a good place as well. I really hope things start coming together this weekend for the Boks and Heyneke, because of it does not I’d rather not watch next weekend’s game against the ABs.
6 Sep 2012, 10:11 am
@Skeppie-73: yes…those would have been my selections as well…..
Perhaps Alberts at 8 ….Vermeulen last 30
Marcelle at 7
Flo 6…..
Once Vermeulen 100% then Marcelle to bench as cover for all 3 loosie spots…Alberts back to 7…
6 Sep 2012, 10:31 am
#68 John Galt – This Polotu Nau chap is a 113kg, very big for a hooker, must be same size as Bissie. Me thinks the Ozzies will be well up for this game, they still have more experience in their team than we do!
6 Sep 2012, 10:34 am
rangerman – I agree. We have no decent 12 and Frans Steyn has been playing at 12 in France for a while. Besides at last years RWC Frans Steyn was our best player. PDV said the only correct thing in his 4 years when he said loosing F Steyn was more detrimental to the Boks than it was for ABs to lose DC!!
6 Sep 2012, 10:42 am
@papaown-59:
I dont think it wouldve been fair if Lambie or Jantjies took over from Steyn and eventually be replaced by Goosen, who is HMs long term first choice. I wont be surprised if MS doesnt make the EOTYT squad. Goosen #1 Jantjies #2.
6 Sep 2012, 10:52 am
@race of tan-78:
if you want to be taken seriously
quoting the ramblings of madman is not the way to do it
6 Sep 2012, 11:06 am
@Jeez-79: Unfair to whom?
It makes no sense to reserve a spot for a promising youngster – the player needs to earn it. So far Goosen is a promising talent but he still needs to be tried at a higher level and earn the 10 jersey.
Personally I would like to see Goosen, Jantjies and Lambie fight it out for the 10 spot.
6 Sep 2012, 11:46 am
Thank god they’re playing in Puth. It’s not uncommon for residents there to start penning letters of complaint relating to noise disturbances, dog poop and handicapped parking bay offenders to Madam Zille, and get as far as the eighth paragraph, before they remember they no longer live in Tokai.
6 Sep 2012, 11:48 am
@Bokhoring-81:
Agree 100%.
I am a huge fan of Goossen’s play, but he needs to get a shot to see if he can take the step up. None of this anointing of the lad as the answer to Bok fan’s dreams before he has played a minute in the green and gold.
He should fight for a place with Jantjies, Lambie and Steyn and may the best man win.
6 Sep 2012, 11:53 am
**** off Kirtchner.
6 Sep 2012, 11:55 am
@Skeppie-69:
Here is another great article.
http://www.sharksworld.co.za/2012/09/06/bok-chances-some-get-plenty-others-get-none/#comment-414399
6 Sep 2012, 12:11 pm
@Bokhoring-81: To expect Lambie or Jantjies to play 10 behind a very inexperienced pack would be unfair and then replace them when Goosen takes over even more so.
6 Sep 2012, 14:01 pm
@rangerman-74: I think HM is waiting on Taute to come back for 15 … it seems he has his players in mind and reluctant to drop the incumbants until they are ready –
Spies to Vermullet
Morne to Goosen
Zane to Taute
Becker to JKruger – back to JK as Bekker obvious not well.
Fetcher one area of concern as he was waiting on Shalk who we know is a hybrid deck player that HM wants. I disagree and still think Brussow/Flo have a role.
Biz and Coonie massive loss !!
6 Sep 2012, 14:05 pm
@Craven-75: Realistically we will be looking at home games to turn over Aus and hopefully NZ ..
6 Sep 2012, 14:34 pm
Honestly, it is a hard judgement to make about HM as the coach. I will give him time before I make a call. I agree with doughnut in that HM has a long term plan. Give him time, we’ll see what happens.
6 Sep 2012, 14:46 pm
A lot of criticism of the wallabies but you have to give credit to their defence – the AB team put 15 tries on Ireland over three games yet the aussies held us to 3 in two games.
I wouldn’t expect blistering attack but eventually a back line with Genia, Kurtley, Digby, and Quade is going to find form and it will sting someone. A pity there’s no O’Bieber or Mitchell. And a pity they have no platform up front to work off.
6 Sep 2012, 15:06 pm
Where is Bakkies??? Just for you
http://www.rugby365.com/article/49459-gatland-o-neill-influenced-ref
6 Sep 2012, 15:27 pm
The Boks might actually win it against the mercenaries dominated Wallabies team (Digby, Cooper, Genia, Samo, Paulu Malu and the No 4, all of whom had moved to Australia as rugby players to ply their trade there), the down side is it may entrench Morne Styen, Kirchner and Habana in their positions.
Which would not be good enough against the ABs
6 Sep 2012, 15:36 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-91:
ex(farking)actly!
only every last fool on the planet knows that game was fixed and double fixed by the kiwis. it suited them fine to do right by the ozzies after setting them up to face and tire the boks out that they should also eliminate their one and only real threat to winning the wc.
these kiwi chops can say what they like but its the truth and the world knows it.
and it puts their pathetic 95 conspiracy claiims in perspective too, at least we had the guts to face them in order to win a wc. they on the other hand chickened.
6 Sep 2012, 15:49 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-93:
har har har har
farken hilarious..
my therapist would like to talk to you bakkies… but hey, now you know how kiwis felt after 07, when Barnes, who had a vested interest because the winner of the match went on to face England in the semi, penalised France twice in 80 minutes, not once in the last 50 minutes (unheard of in rugby still to this day) with France having a massive 30% possession..
yet all and sundry on this blog told us we should have won without the refs influence, and that Barnes was indeed a fair ref that day..
so using your guys logic, Lawrence was much fairer than barnes, suck it up loser!!
you guys should also have won regardless, backs dropping the ball with the tryline open.. why didnt you guys go for the drop goal? (was another one we heard ad nauseum)..
nice to be able to “get the Japies” thoroughly deserved with supporters like yourself..
6 Sep 2012, 15:58 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-93:
I knew this would set you off on a totally new paper trail of conspiracy.
But if you read the article, Gatland is accusing John o Neill of indirectly inlfuencing Brycie, with mind games……
So Bryce is a victim in the Gatland version…
John o Neill and the sneaky littleaussiefuckers are your TRUE enemies Bakkies……..
6 Sep 2012, 17:09 pm
@katman-82: Hey you cant blame them they probably sick and tired of being bled to death by paying taxes so Bongani can have 5 kids
6 Sep 2012, 18:08 pm
“Stow the infantile Bryce Lawrence rhetoric ” – ????
Jon – I usually enjoy your writing the most, and you dont normally resort to this holier-than-thou, elitist attitude that blights Ryan on-te-Vrede.
Dont belittle the Bok and SA supporters that read your writing. Very few fans would say it was 100% Bryce’s fault (well I hope anyway!).
But it was as much as Bryce as it was PoKok! For eg. the ball that was played ion the ground in front of the Aus poles when Schalk took it in was by Horwill, not PoHaan
6 Sep 2012, 18:08 pm
@katman-82: HAHAHAHAHAHA vlymskerp!
6 Sep 2012, 18:13 pm
Brussow and taute back for their provinces…
Boks need you to dragons!!!
Heineke need 2 pick them for home games
6 Sep 2012, 18:42 pm
Agreed. Both are vital. Alberts to 4, Estebeth to 5 and Brussouw to 6. Done deal.
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