Preview: Wallabies vs Springboks
6 Sep 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Will it matter? Will it matter how the Springboks win this Saturday in Perth?
The Boks desperately need a start; they need a win, however ugly, against top-flight opposition.
They’re playing in a city that has been kind to visiting South African teams in the past, and that will inspire them to believe another win is possible.
However, they haven’t beaten Australia or New Zealand Down Under since September 2009, and haven’t beaten Australia since September 2010. Those are facts and statistics that would shake the confidence of any team, especially one that is short on synergy and experience.
Coach Heyneke Meyer has made some prudent changes, but this new side cannot be expected to gel immediately. It is for this reason that the Boks may stick to their simple game plan, despite the calls to vary their play.
Execution has been a problem as has consistency over the past five Tests. The Boks can be brutally effective when they get it right, and this was evident, albeit in short bursts, during the series against England. They will need to be clinical at the breakdown against Australia, and will need to show more grunt at the collisions than they did against Argentina.
The Boks aren’t anywhere near their fearsome best, but then neither are the Wallabies. It’s for this reason that a trend-breaking win is not impossible for South Africa, especially when one looks at the make-up of both forward packs.
Duane Vermeulen should have been a Springbok three years ago, and deserves his place at No 8. He’s played several matches for Western Province since returning from a serious knee injury, and some feel that he should be gradually introduced to Test rugby. Wrong.
Vermeulen is the kind of player that needs to start, he is not a man to play from the bench. He is best utilised when the game is tight, he is a powerful player that will get you over the gainline in a tight scrap. His momentum-halting defence is just as valuable in such a physical clash. On top of all of that, he’s a great option at the tail of the lineout.
David Pocock isn’t playing in this match. I repeat, David Pocock, the best openside on the planet, the bane of the Boks’ existence over the past three seasons, is not playing in this match. Stow the infantile Bryce Lawrence rhetoric and embrace the fact that Pocock cost the Boks a place in the World Cup semi-finals.
That special player isn’t available to the Wallabies this Saturday, and that is a massive plus for South Africa.
I’m not convinced that Michael Hooper will translate his Super Rugby form to the Test stage. For this reason, the Wallabies should be worried, because Hooper cannot play more than one role.
Hooper is an out-and-out fetcher, and you won’t seem him defending or carrying the ball like Pocock or the Boks’ Francois Louw. It will be a problem for the Wallabies, especially if their pack as a collective does not dominate the collisions.
Radike Samo was fantastic in the 2011 Super Rugby tournament, but his age has started to show in 2012. Like Hooper, Dave Dennis has yet to prove that he belongs at this level.
Willem Alberts will be back at his favourite position of blindside flank, and determined to replicate his performances against England. Marcell Coetzee will also be looking for a better showing, and with Vermeulen now in the mix, it looks to be the most balanced back row the Boks have fielded this year.
Meyer has decided to back Coetzee as a starter, but Louw should be introduced at some stage. It could be that Coetzee shifts to blindside and Alberts to No 8 in such event. The pressure will be on Meyer to make the right calls in terms of new combinations in the second half. There are some talented players on the Bok bench, and how Meyer deploys them (ie in which combination or role) will play a big part in the final result.
While the Wallabies are lacking a few big name players, they will always be favourites at home and it’s going to be another tight scoreline. It won’t be enough that the Bok forwards dominate, the halfbacks will need to take the right options, and Morné Steyn will have to kick his goals.
How will Meyer react if Steyn has another off night with the boot? It will be interesting to see if he brings the uncapped Goosen right into the mix, or trusts in Frans Steyn, Ruan Pienaar or another reserve in Pat Lambie to shoot for goal. This is another big call that will need to be made if Steyn suffers another mental lapse.
It’s going to be desperate, its going to be ugly, but it’s going to be a start. This Saturday, winning is all that matters, and the Boks should do enough to achieve that objective.
JC’S CALL: Boks by 3
Wallabies – 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Dominic Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson
Subs: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Scott Higginbotham, 19 Liam Gill, 20 Nick Phipps, 21 Mike Harris
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Pat Cilliers, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Francois Louw, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Pat Lambie, 22 Lwazi Mvovo.
190 Comments
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6 Sep 2012, 19:55 pm
@poppa69-94:
rumbled
who’s baiting now
6 Sep 2012, 20:02 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-95:
not at all so.
think it through. it was a kiwi who sunk the ozzzies against ireland and the same kiwi who sunk the boks in turn. perfect.
the kiwis were out to play their dirty game all along and even if they did join the party late they still knew exactly what theywanted out of any little deal with o’neil.
he just desperately pressed them to do them a good turn but the kiwis had a bigger picture cowardice act going. galtand is careful not to burn his kiwi chums as much as he would an ozzie. it helps that the lions face oz as well the fact they’ll do their best to tar the oz after the unceremonious dismisal of paddy and lawrence.
thet’re are a craftily dirty lot these kiwis, but i would have respected the outcome more if they at least had the guts to face us, which thet didn’t.
6 Sep 2012, 21:34 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-102:
That’s rich considering South Africa is the country that invented cheating refs
I see your still ranting on about NZ “rigging the 2011 cup ”
That quarter final exit sure did cut you REAL DEEP
Heres a hint
Try and show some dignity
6 Sep 2012, 22:13 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-93:
Fixed by us??
Ozzie won the 3 nations, they were a better team than the Boks, why the hell would we fix it so we play a better team?
You have a real problem with us Kiwis but you keep saying you dont. Now look at what just happened. Not once did Gatland saying fixed by the kiwis, he said O’Neil MAY have had an influence.
6 Sep 2012, 22:30 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-102:
You have to be kidding.
You actually got all that from reading what Gatland said about O’Neil?
You have serious issues man.
Boks lost, get over it. They were wooden spooners in the 3 nations and 8th in the RWC, and you still think the Boks were the only team to be able to beat the ABs, shows how much respect you have for other teams.
Plain and simple….NOT GOOD ENOUGH, so give it a rest.
6 Sep 2012, 22:32 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-95:
lol
Bakkies went all pitbull on that original post.
Thing is you put the bait out there and called the fish to the hook, wow.
6 Sep 2012, 22:43 pm
Anyway, i have feeling about this game.
The Ozzies are going to get beat.
Boks are going to click this game, its a matter of having to.
If Boks do not win, it really could mean the ABs will win the first tournament , of course thats if we beat Argentina, which could be harder than said.
If both teams find there top game, i still think the Boks forwards will win them the game. The few times i have seen the Boks play this year….in patches when they have clicked, i have not seen one team that hits the rucks and clear with speed like that. Boks backs will not win games, forwards will.
6 Sep 2012, 22:45 pm
Bakkies ur rediculous. Get a hold of you’re membranes…seriously.
6 Sep 2012, 22:49 pm
I think the boks will step up when it comes down like it is now. As for nzl, they should win comfortably…they will have to just stay composed, im sure there pumas will be all fired up.
7 Sep 2012, 00:18 am
Bakkies needs a job or hobby. Too much time to think up rubbish
7 Sep 2012, 00:50 am
I guess Boks will win. They simply have to, otherwise they are hopeless.
Firstly, Perth is the most home-alike venue in Aus/NZ for South Africa and their record there is very nice. Secondly, despite Boks being Wallabies bunnies in recent times and despite unimpressive playing under HM (apart from powerful 20 or so minutes in J-burg vs England) and coming unstuck big time at the Andes, Aussie woes look more serious – without their prime weapon Pocock, with currently out-of-sorts Cooper, not that very much shiny Genia and their constant source of “pride” – The Scrum. Add to it a certain Nigel Owens who, IMHO, will lash those so called scrummies all day long.
This is the golden opportunity for the Boks and as long as Morne Steyn kicks expected three-pointers, job should be done.
7 Sep 2012, 00:59 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-102: I guess you will keep whingeing all the same even 50 years later.
7 Sep 2012, 00:59 am
The most predicable elements in world sport today:
1. Boks #10
2. Boks #15
7 Sep 2012, 03:09 am
OK so Manly Bok said something to me the other day that stuck with me, the Wallabies are playing like a team wanting to get rid of their coach!
So last night some Oz commentators was saying Deans need to win 4 out of his next 5 games to keep his job, one, Kafer said no matter what, he is a goner. This is in stark contrast to the support they have been giving him over the last few years…I think the fat lady is warming up.
Based on this alone I think the Boks will win by a few, say 5.
7 Sep 2012, 03:31 am
@Slartibartfast-114:
The dance of the desparado’s
Koos, how is old Manley Bok? Long time since I heard that name!
7 Sep 2012, 03:34 am
I see the AB’s and commentators in NZ are whinging about Ted being with the Arrgies………..
and some of the tossers here love to call Saffers whingers., faaark me there is always something over here to whinge about!!
7 Sep 2012, 04:02 am
@whatever-116:
Well leave NZ. Simple.
Not everyone is complaining about it. I listen to talk back sports radio during the day.
Just imagine Jake White left and joined another international team straight after the RWC win. I am sure a few would be complaining.
And for the record, we were not complaining first about GH in with the Pumas. In fact you guys were complaning, and saying the Pumas were cheating cos of GH, reasons why the game ended up to be a draw.
So yes, we do call some of you guys whingers and going on that we have every right.
Seems like you need to leave NZ and get back to your roots, whenever you come on here its a whinge and name calling session, even Keo pulled you on that a few weeks back lol now that was funny.
7 Sep 2012, 04:28 am
@whatever-115: @whatever-115:
He said jail time was much better this time around…;-)
@Hurricane-117:
The complaining would have been about saru and their stupidity to kick him out to be replaced by a clown. The pain of that decision is till around…
PS I have not read a lot of posts over the last few days but did anyone pick up on the fact we only have 4 players from the 1/4 final exist in the run-on team on Saturday? Yet another indication of how much work the Meyer has to do…
7 Sep 2012, 04:39 am
@poppa69-94:
I don’t usually reply to trolls but…..
Penalty count: NZ vs France RWC 2007 – Fr: 7; NZ: 2 (Total 9)
Penalty count: Aus vs RSA RWC 2011 – Aus: 5 RSA:4 (Total 9)
I suppose, by Kiwi logic, Boks got 100% more penalties…
For the record: I reckon 2007 was suspicious, and 2011 even more so!
7 Sep 2012, 04:57 am
@Hurricane-117:
Hey you put out a line, I put out a line! Grow some balls you whinging git! Tell me what the faak my comment has to do with where and how I choose to live?
You becoming a doos just like poppadoos!
7 Sep 2012, 04:58 am
@Slartibartfast-118:
7 Sep 2012, 05:30 am
Tomorrow…
Forecast for Saturday
Sunny. Moderate northeasterly winds.
Precis: Sunny.
City: Min 7 Max 25
7 Sep 2012, 06:39 am
@Hurricane-117:
Hey I missed Keo “pulling me up”, must have been funny if he did. Almost like a “user” kaking his kids out for smoking dope
7 Sep 2012, 07:46 am
@whatever-120:
“faaark me there is always something over here to whinge about!!”
So you bought up the country, understand now.
@whatever-123:
lol
Yeah it was a bit like that.
7 Sep 2012, 07:47 am
@spartan-103:
@Hurricane-104:
@Hurricane-105:
it is an ugly part of who you are as a people, deal with it.
very similarly reflected in how you play the game, which is dirty and dishonest.
i am sorry to say it, but it is true.
nz could have been a great rugby nation with respect across the world but you threw the oppotunity away. its lost now.
this is not my fault for pointing it out. naked emperor thing.
7 Sep 2012, 07:48 am
@Nils-112:
just telling it like it is boet.
7 Sep 2012, 07:50 am
Get a life, Bakkies.
And look on the bright side of things, at least SA & Aus can lay claim to “winning” World Cups AWAY FROM HOME!!!
7 Sep 2012, 07:52 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-125:
So you are calling me dirty and dishonest?
You havent got a clue who i am.
Even a few South Africans on here are starting to get sick of your rubbish.
I really cant help you if you think that little of me.
Pathetic really.
7 Sep 2012, 07:53 am
@BrumbiesBoy-127:
And that will change in 2015 sorry to say.
7 Sep 2012, 08:02 am
@Hurricane-129: Maybe, but you never know!
It’s “OUR TURN” next…
7 Sep 2012, 08:12 am
@BrumbiesBoy-130:
haha
Yep you just never know
7 Sep 2012, 08:33 am
@BrumbiesBoy-127:
why cant people just be honest?
@Hurricane-128:
no hurri, not on a personal level but your rugby is dirty and dishonest. i’m sure the same goes for all of nz outside of rugby.
7 Sep 2012, 08:35 am
Perth – Springboks Rugby World Cup-winning coach Jake White has called on the Wallabies forwards to dramatically lift their standards against South Africa on Saturday, otherwise they will suffer their third straight humiliating Test loss.
The now Brumbies coach believes the Wallabies forwards’ inability to dominate the gain line battle has made it virtually impossible for the Australian attack to perform.
White is not hiding from these comments, instead giving the team a jarring rev-up for tomorrow night’s Perth Test, with revealing statistics that emphasise how impotent the Wallabies forwards were in the two Bledisloe Cup Tests.
White, who was involved in 11 internationals against the Wallabies while Springboks coach between 2004 and 2007, makes the telling point that Radike Samo made more metres in one international last year than the whole Wallabies pack combined in the Sydney and Auckland losses.
”Some of the statistics from the recent Bledisloe Cup clashes are mind blowing,” White wrote. ”In two Tests the Wallabies forwards carried the ball just 80 metres (50 in Sydney then 30 in Auckland), while the All Blacks forwards carried for 225 metres – almost three times as much.
”Much criticism has been aimed at the Wallabies attack for failing to score a try in Auckland, but it may not be the backs’ fault. The real issue is the Wallabies forwards are not gaining any ascendancy at the gain line so the backs have no platform to launch attacking raids.
”The backs can be creative as they like, and the Wallabies back line is full of creative players, but without the time and space to execute their attack they were easily closed down by the All Blacks.
”There could be two reasons for this. Either the Wallabies, in their desperation to attack, are getting the ball to the backs too often or the forwards are being given the ball but can’t gain any ascendancy. The latter isn’t surprising as they are missing some of their best ball carriers.” This includes Wycliff Palu and James Horwill, who are both injured, while Tatafu Polota-Nau and Samo hasn’t started every Test.
”In one run last year against the All Blacks in Brisbane, Radike Samo carried the ball more than the entire Wallabies pack in the first two clashes this season. Whatever the cause, the Wallabies must go forward.”
White said the Springboks had ”the opposite problem”. Their forwards were carrying the ball too much, and so their attack ”is one dimensional, and, as we saw in Mendoza against Argentina, easily contained”. This is because Heyneke Meyer ”is using the Bulls game plan, based around forward power and gaining a physical edge over opponents”.
The Wallabies forward woes do not end there. Hooker Stephen Moore was yesterday ruled out due to a hamstring injury. As a result of the strain, Polota-Nau will return to the starting line-up, with Saia Faingaa moving onto the reserves bench.
At least tight-head prop Ben Alexander is prepared, explaining he was not distracted by all the speculation over the future of beleaguered coach Robbie Deans, whose position will be placed under greater scrutiny if they lose to the Springboks.
”We feel a responsibility for the side not performing, and our concern is that we play well for our country,” Alexander said. ”The criticism of Robbie hurts us too because its a reflection of us and how we didn’t do a great job representing our country [against the All Blacks].”
Meanwhile, Dan Carter’s Wellington jinx has continued after being ruled out of the All Blacks team to face Argentina on Saturday. Carter strained his left calf muscle at an indoor training session on Thursday morning and will be replaced in the starting No 10 jersey by Aaron Cruden.
Beauden Barrett, who has trained with the squad this week, will come onto the reserve bench.
Teams:
7 Sep 2012, 08:47 am
white dances to whoever pays the tune.
there is some obvious points made though.
7 Sep 2012, 08:50 am
@Hurricane-128:
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-132:
just to be clear, by the following:
“no hurri, not on a personal level but your rugby is dirty and dishonest. i’m sure the same goes for all of nz outside of rugby”
i actually meant all of nz is NOT dirty and dishonest outside of rugby.
7 Sep 2012, 08:59 am
white looks funny with these specs:
http://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/RugbyChampionship/White-revs-up-Oz-forwards-20120907
7 Sep 2012, 09:00 am
@Hurricane-128: not worth the effort Hurri..
losers will always blame anything other then their own teams shortcomings..
remember, bakkies is SA’s new breed, if his sense of entitlement isnt satisfied its because he’s been cheated..
best to let him have his conspiracy, the poor dear has been permanently scarred, what type of true rugby fan will not watch rugby anymore? says it all..
7 Sep 2012, 09:04 am
good morning to you too, poppa
7 Sep 2012, 09:09 am
always at the ready to defend nz’s honour
i really do not understand why telling the truth about a teams clear and obvious characteristics make for such blank disbelief and resentment.
7 Sep 2012, 09:11 am
I must admit to an extra buzz about tomorrows test…..A real Dance of the Desperates….
Deans on a knife edge, Meyer must be feeling the Publics dismay and angst, especially outside of Pretoria, The Wallabies smarting after being nilled, The Boks chastened after the dismal draw in Mendoza, M Steyn staring anxiously at the young Goosen on the bench, F Louw straining at the leash to show what Boks missing at the breakdown….
Some magic ingredients for a Test which, either way, will probably have defining outcomes on a few careers dependent on the outcome….
Fascinating stuff…..
After much soul searching, bone throwing and crystal ball gazing, Boks by 5….
7 Sep 2012, 09:12 am
@grant10-133: geez hey, where do you think jake gets his stats, THIRTY METRES?
http://www.verusco.com/verusco_stats_portal_g.php?compid=4&yearid=16&weekid=2&gameid=1&team=2
7 Sep 2012, 09:14 am
its not like it isn’t a done thing? even the kiwis are quick to the cliches. we all are.
french are unpredictable
welsh like to run
argies have a good scrum
sa are physical
england play 10 man rugby
ozzies are crafty and smart
7 Sep 2012, 09:16 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-136: HAVE YOU READ THIS?
these kiwis are blowing the lid
British & Irish Lions coach Warren Gatland is expecting a full scale assault both on and off the field when his side tackle the Wallabies next year – but his claims have been laughed off by Australian Rugby Union (ARU) boss John O’Neill.
Gatland, whose side will face the Wallabies in a three-Test series in the climax of their 10-game tour, is ready for a war of words and has launched pre-emptive strike by suggesting O’Neill, the ARU’s managing director and chief executive, influenced New Zealand referee Bryce Lawrence during last year’s Rugby World Cup.
In the wake of Australia’s shock loss to Ireland in the pool stages, Gatland has suggested that O’Neill’s criticism of Lawrence’s performance contributed to the Wallabies’ subsequent quarter-final victory over South Africa.
Lawrence, who admitted to mistakes during the game with Ireland, was widely criticised for his handling of the latter clash due to a perceived bias towards Australia at the breakdown with Gatland believing that O’Neill’s complaints were pivotal in proceedings.
“They are masters at it and possibly the best one was John O’Neill, as a master of influence in certain things,” Gatland said. “I don’t see any better example than how the (World Cup) quarter-final between South Africa and Australia was influenced. It was a master stroke.
“I’m not 100% sure, but I think that after Ireland beat Australia in that pool game, certain complaints were made about the referee (Lawrence), subtly and tactfully, and I think that had an impact on the quarter-final.
“We’ve got to be aware about what sort of things are going to be done on and off the field. I’m not decrying it – what he (O’Neill) did was absolutely outstanding for his nation.”
“I’ve got a huge amount of respect for what John O’Neill has done in terms of leading Australian sport – he’s a master at what he does,” added Gatland. “We’ve just got to be aware of what sort of things might be happening behind the scenes to put us off.”
7 Sep 2012, 09:17 am
@Transformation-141:
Yeah was thinking the same thing.
Its an interesting stat and does make a lot of sense but Im farked if I think that the entire Wallabies pack made only 30 metres the whole night.
7 Sep 2012, 09:18 am
@Transformation-141:
there’s your stats and there’s my stats
and then there’s the stats of those stats
everybodies got stats
although it is pretty obvious oz lost on a lot of fronts
7 Sep 2012, 09:25 am
I have a sneaking suspicion all is not well in Aussie camp…..if that is the case and the coach has lost part of the dressingroom then the Boks may be in …..
Meyer would surely have been doing all he can to ensure Boks will be fully mentally up for this 1…….and if we manage to get a forward foothold we may just see an entertaining Test…..
Really , really hoping we use ball more than is normal…..vary the game plan….
Interesting on Boots and All klast night to hear Naas Botha singing the praises of Lambie as a 10 as well…..
7 Sep 2012, 09:25 am
@Slartibartfast-114: I put my picks in on Tuesday. Also have Boks by 5. Then again I never go against my teams. Boks or Sharks I always pick them to win. So have to see how we go.
Anything can happen really. Wallabies could klap us and we could sneak a win or even could win big. Hard to tell, but think we should win it by a few. Even with our kick and chase game we have the players to win this. Against the ABs we will never win that one.
7 Sep 2012, 09:25 am
77% of all stats are made up anyway.
7 Sep 2012, 09:26 am
@Transformation-143:
yip, read it already yesterday and commented on it.
gatland’s sneaky to frame from a purely ozzie perspective though.
7 Sep 2012, 09:27 am
frans louw straining at the leash..?…
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