Preview: Wallabies vs Springboks
6 Sep 2012
JON CARDINELLI analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Will it matter? Will it matter how the Springboks win this Saturday in Perth?
The Boks desperately need a start; they need a win, however ugly, against top-flight opposition.
They’re playing in a city that has been kind to visiting South African teams in the past, and that will inspire them to believe another win is possible.
However, they haven’t beaten Australia or New Zealand Down Under since September 2009, and haven’t beaten Australia since September 2010. Those are facts and statistics that would shake the confidence of any team, especially one that is short on synergy and experience.
Coach Heyneke Meyer has made some prudent changes, but this new side cannot be expected to gel immediately. It is for this reason that the Boks may stick to their simple game plan, despite the calls to vary their play.
Execution has been a problem as has consistency over the past five Tests. The Boks can be brutally effective when they get it right, and this was evident, albeit in short bursts, during the series against England. They will need to be clinical at the breakdown against Australia, and will need to show more grunt at the collisions than they did against Argentina.
The Boks aren’t anywhere near their fearsome best, but then neither are the Wallabies. It’s for this reason that a trend-breaking win is not impossible for South Africa, especially when one looks at the make-up of both forward packs.
Duane Vermeulen should have been a Springbok three years ago, and deserves his place at No 8. He’s played several matches for Western Province since returning from a serious knee injury, and some feel that he should be gradually introduced to Test rugby. Wrong.
Vermeulen is the kind of player that needs to start, he is not a man to play from the bench. He is best utilised when the game is tight, he is a powerful player that will get you over the gainline in a tight scrap. His momentum-halting defence is just as valuable in such a physical clash. On top of all of that, he’s a great option at the tail of the lineout.
David Pocock isn’t playing in this match. I repeat, David Pocock, the best openside on the planet, the bane of the Boks’ existence over the past three seasons, is not playing in this match. Stow the infantile Bryce Lawrence rhetoric and embrace the fact that Pocock cost the Boks a place in the World Cup semi-finals.
That special player isn’t available to the Wallabies this Saturday, and that is a massive plus for South Africa.
I’m not convinced that Michael Hooper will translate his Super Rugby form to the Test stage. For this reason, the Wallabies should be worried, because Hooper cannot play more than one role.
Hooper is an out-and-out fetcher, and you won’t seem him defending or carrying the ball like Pocock or the Boks’ Francois Louw. It will be a problem for the Wallabies, especially if their pack as a collective does not dominate the collisions.
Radike Samo was fantastic in the 2011 Super Rugby tournament, but his age has started to show in 2012. Like Hooper, Dave Dennis has yet to prove that he belongs at this level.
Willem Alberts will be back at his favourite position of blindside flank, and determined to replicate his performances against England. Marcell Coetzee will also be looking for a better showing, and with Vermeulen now in the mix, it looks to be the most balanced back row the Boks have fielded this year.
Meyer has decided to back Coetzee as a starter, but Louw should be introduced at some stage. It could be that Coetzee shifts to blindside and Alberts to No 8 in such event. The pressure will be on Meyer to make the right calls in terms of new combinations in the second half. There are some talented players on the Bok bench, and how Meyer deploys them (ie in which combination or role) will play a big part in the final result.
While the Wallabies are lacking a few big name players, they will always be favourites at home and it’s going to be another tight scoreline. It won’t be enough that the Bok forwards dominate, the halfbacks will need to take the right options, and Morné Steyn will have to kick his goals.
How will Meyer react if Steyn has another off night with the boot? It will be interesting to see if he brings the uncapped Goosen right into the mix, or trusts in Frans Steyn, Ruan Pienaar or another reserve in Pat Lambie to shoot for goal. This is another big call that will need to be made if Steyn suffers another mental lapse.
It’s going to be desperate, its going to be ugly, but it’s going to be a start. This Saturday, winning is all that matters, and the Boks should do enough to achieve that objective.
JC’S CALL: Boks by 3
Wallabies – 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Dominic Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson
Subs: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Scott Higginbotham, 19 Liam Gill, 20 Nick Phipps, 21 Mike Harris
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Pat Cilliers, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Francois Louw, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Pat Lambie, 22 Lwazi Mvovo.
190 Comments
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7 Sep 2012, 09:28 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-145: you can look on any stats website, i can’t see where is says all 8 chaps that made up the aussie pack carried the ball only 30 metres.
white is know to succumb to a bit of hyperbole
remember the time the boks got belted on the eoyt and he said the “springboks are under-developed and look like school boys compared to the english” this was with bakkies botha in the team
7 Sep 2012, 09:30 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-150: classic grant!
7 Sep 2012, 09:31 am
@grant10-146: Naas has always rated Lambie at fb and fh he rates him. Has praised Lambie many times after the games he has played. Especially when we played England. Said he was outstanding at fb.
7 Sep 2012, 09:34 am
So if Wallabies lose tomorrow will that be Deans gone? Could be.
See Jake giving some advice to Wallabies on News24.
7 Sep 2012, 09:35 am
@Transformation-151:
he does love playing to the audience, old jakey.
@Transformation-152:
gotta love this country. eveyone’s got ‘the’ angle on how it should go down. just never put all these angles together and its beeyootiful
7 Sep 2012, 09:36 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-138: Shame came you hear the violins from poopa? shame brings a tear to my eyes! scum!
7 Sep 2012, 09:37 am
@Puma-154:
to be honest, i would rather meyer faced deans over the next two years instead of mckenzie. i hope they keep him even if they lose.
7 Sep 2012, 09:39 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-157:
Robbie has a wonderful record against South Africa.
7 Sep 2012, 09:42 am
@Sharksgirl-156:
and he says he never gets baited..?..
poppa’s the kinda guy who it’s in your best interest to continue kicking… even when he’s down
and yes agreed, in his case i do make the exception to refer to a nz’der OUTSIDE OF RUGBY as scum
oh for the love of some medication…
7 Sep 2012, 09:43 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-125:
Hey man I notice you never let the truth get in the way of your twisted imagination
7 Sep 2012, 09:44 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-157: Not sure what they will do. We want to beat the best so if it means McKenzie is there so be it. Shouldn’t hope only to beat teams when they down. We should always be backing ourselves. We a rugby country for pets sake. We should be beating just about everyone. Just like the Abs are doing. I want us to reach those levels just like we were many years back when I grew up.
7 Sep 2012, 09:45 am
@Puma-161: pets = petes
7 Sep 2012, 09:49 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-157: Also don’t just count on McKenzie being the next Wallabie coach. Jake is living there and it could be him. Would then really hate to lose to Aus if he was coaching them. Now that would be even worse than losing to them if McKenzie were their coach.
7 Sep 2012, 09:50 am
@Robzim-158:
yes, against pdivvy he does but considering the weight of unrealised expectations and the pressure its putting oz rugby under there’ll be strains there which should at least even it out a bit for meyer.
the fact he plays a cleaner game, relatively speaking, than mckenzie does is also something worth considering. mckenzie coming into the oz squad will bring new impetus and energy as well a playing style akin to the reds i suppose (which has been well dirty in addition to enterprising).
no, i think we are better off if deans stays at the helm at least until the end of next years 4nations.
7 Sep 2012, 09:53 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-157:
His winning record with the Aussies is nothing to write home about but still marginally better than the record of Loudmouth Lucky Eddie J:
Rod McQueen- 79%
John Connely-64%
Robbie Deans- 58%
Eddie Jones – 57%
McQueen was in a class of his own but he had al time superstars like Eales, Campese, Horan, Little and quite a few other world class players to work with. Deans has lately been very unlucky with injuries to many of his best players and he does not have much depth to work with.
7 Sep 2012, 09:55 am
@spartan-160:
all right then, we have have different opinions regarding some facts.
surprised…?..
@Puma-161:
fair enough, good point.
it is a baptism of fire for meyer though – to rebuild a whole new team and playing style.
its gonna be hard but them’s the breaks as you say.
7 Sep 2012, 09:55 am
@Puma-163:
i would lay big money at the bookies on mckenzie coaching next.
7 Sep 2012, 09:57 am
Aus, NZ SA – All have a dishonest/dirty facet to how the game is played.
Aus – Players and captains continuously whinging to the ref : “..Pleez me ref, don’t you think it’s time for a yellow card..” C’mon, get some honour and see if you can actually win a game with all the opposition players on the field.
NZ –Offside line and breakdown rules that clearly only apply to players in Black. A rap on the knuckles and penalty for players from any other team attempting to play to these unique rules, except in the case of the “offender’ being in green-and-gold, in which case yellow+penalty is the common punishment.
SA – Moer hulle. ‘Cause we don’t a damn believe… No, we know we can’t outsmart them..
7 Sep 2012, 09:59 am
@Robzim-165:
58% really says it all though. even pdivvy has a better ratio.
i think the only thing he can claim in his time was getting the wood over sa enough times to catapult them to 2nd even on the back of such a poor win record. and the one 3nations.
7 Sep 2012, 10:05 am
@rocco-168:
no rocco, you’ve hardly scratched the surface wrt nz’s typical cheating charateristics. there’s daylight between nz and the rest.
7 Sep 2012, 10:06 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-166: Yip we should not worry who is coach and which team we play. We should be beating most.
Agree it will probably be McKenzie, but I will not be surprised if it is Jake.
Do you ever read that Aussie site Roar? Very good site they have all their sports there but plenty on rugby as well. Similar to our Sports24. Campo writes there. Only that Spiro can be a bit of jerk sometimes, never take him too serious. I don’t blog there but read there quite a bit.
7 Sep 2012, 10:07 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-170:
Do you ever give it a rest?
7 Sep 2012, 10:09 am
@Robzim-165:
Correct Deans has been unlucky with unfit and injured players.
Its a cruel game to be a coach sometimes.
7 Sep 2012, 10:10 am
@Puma-171:
thanks, i’ll give it a look.
@Hurricane-172:
alright hurri, thats the last you’ll hear from me on the subject of cheating for today.
7 Sep 2012, 10:20 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-174: I bet you 2 gold watches, a wine farm in Marlborough NZ and a signed AC/DC album that within the next 2 hours, you will have stumbled across some damning evidence of Kiwi cheating; and you will be forced to share it with us.
Deal?
7 Sep 2012, 10:22 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-174: Yes, definitely give it a look. Have to say ‘The Roar’ is one of the best sites around. Only there are mostly Aussies that post there. Have noticed quite a few saffas posting there too. Just great to read what they are saying on the otherside of the world, as to only what we hear here.
7 Sep 2012, 10:23 am
Ja Bakkies give it a rest already
7 Sep 2012, 10:24 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-175:
Umm kiwi cheating to Bakkies is jersey pulling, even though all teams do it, the Kiwis did it first.
7 Sep 2012, 10:26 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-169: in deans’ tenure aus have lost to england twice, lost to ireland, lost to scotland and samoa… 3 out 17 to the all blacks…grim! bok win-ratio only shining light.
7 Sep 2012, 10:36 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-175:
deal
7 Sep 2012, 10:38 am
@Puma-176:
yes, always good for perspective to add two sides of a story.
@Dawn-177:
it’s done, dawn
7 Sep 2012, 10:41 am
@Transformation-179:
my point exaclty.
considering the road heyneke has to travel he would better off with deans there.
but in the interests of rugby as a spectacle i would agee with puma… to be the best you should play the best.
7 Sep 2012, 10:43 am
@Hurricane-178:
huh..?..
i thought we made nice..?..
tricky fella…?..
7 Sep 2012, 10:58 am
Houston you’ve rubbished Deans as a coach, what happens if you lose to a very depleted Aus tomorrow, where will that leave Meyer as a coach?
7 Sep 2012, 11:27 am
@whatever-116: Just browse comments on this topic alone and count number of whinges.
Nah, mate, even Poms come distant second best.
7 Sep 2012, 13:25 pm
win or lose meyer’s rebuilding china.
7 Sep 2012, 14:59 pm
Cheeting schmeeting……funny how if your team wins then they were “smart”, “played to the whistle” or “managed the ref well”. If they lose, then the opposition were cheating, ref was paid (presumably more by the other side !!)or they were poisoned by Suzie Matwetwe…
All relative ain’t it ?
7 Sep 2012, 15:05 pm
@Tiptackle-187: suzie who?
7 Sep 2012, 17:45 pm
We simply have to lose Steyn at 10 and that bog brush at 15 . Bring Lambie in at 10 to dictate or 15 to attach with extra option . That bog brush even though he scored the othervday , is a one trick pony and as the afrikaner says “nie gebou om te hou.”
8 Sep 2012, 14:00 pm
“I’m not convinced that Michael Hooper will translate his Super Rugby form to the Test stage.”
Hooper is a weapon. Was a standout in an otherwise kak pack Australia against the All Blacks. Underestimate him at your peril
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