Lack of Plan B will be exposed
12 Sep 2012
JON CARDINELLI writes that even without Dan Carter the All Blacks have the forwards, the kicking game and the counter-attack to nullify the Springboks’ kick-chase tactics.
The word from New Zealand is that coach Steve Hansen hasn’t been too impressed with the recent showings of his team, and that bodes badly for the Boks.
The All Blacks will come to the Forsyth Barr Stadium determined to make a point. Their chances of improvement are likely when you consider that the Boks will be missing a number of key forwards, and that their forward combinations are wanting for experience and synergy.
Bok coach Heyneke Meyer has made two changes to the pack that started last week. Flip van der Merwe replaces Eben Etzebeth at lock, and Francois Louw is favoured at openside flank. Loosehead Dean Greyling is selected on the bench, and could be asked to fill in at tighthead in the second half.
Meyer has persisted with Jannie du Plessis as the starting tighthead, even though he is carrying an injury. The Boks come into this game after an inconsistent scrumming performance against the Wallabies. They will start a tighthead who is not fully fit and may be forced to call on a loosehead to play No 3 later in the game. It’s hardly a recipe for success against a scrumming unit as formidable as that of the All Blacks.
Some will argue that scrumming is not the be-all and the end-all. Fair enough, but then when have the Boks ever beaten the All Blacks without dominating them physically? And here I am talking about bossing the collisions and taking control at the breakdown. The Boks know only one path to victory when they are playing against the New Zealanders, and when that avenue is blocked, they’re lost.
One of their best forwards of 2012 has been suspended, a player perfectly suited to this limited, albeit at times effective game plan. Etzebeth has been outstanding in his first year of senior rugby, exhibiting the necessary mongrel and grunt to help his side establish that physical dominance. Even when his side has been outplayed, Etzebeth has made a bruising impact, as was the case in the Stormers’ semi-final against the Sharks and the Boks’ recent battle with the Wallabies.
Bakkies Botha is unavailable, and the role of enforcer will fall to Van der Merwe. There have been concerns about a Bok tight-five that is wanting for experience, although ironically it has been their least experienced player (read Etzebeth) that has outplayed all his team-mates. However, the failure of this collective is what’s cost the Boks in recent games, and you can’t expect to prosper against the best side on the planet when you have that sort of problem.
I like the look of that starting back row, but how effective can they be if their tight five doesn’t lay the necessary platform? Louw will attempt to make a nuisance of himself at the breakdown, but he cannot win the ball or slow the opposition’s ball sufficiently if his pack as a unit is losing the battle at the collisions.
How then can the backline be expected to thrive in the game plan of choice? The All Blacks will put the Boks under pressure at the rucks, and this pressure will be transferred on to the Bok halfbacks. With less time and space, Ruan Pienaar and Morné Steyn will not be able to employ the kick-chase with optimal effect.
Meyer has spoken about getting the chase lines right and how the kick-chase tactic has value, but it cannot be successful unless there is dominance up front.
Meyer has persisted with Steyn because he believes the flyhalf is the best exponent of the kick-chase strategy, but Steyn is also prone to playing too deep when his forwards are copping a beating, and struggles with the accuracy of these kicks when the opposition forwards are in his face.
And what will happen when these high or raking kicks land in opposition territory? The All Blacks have been the best tactical kickers in world rugby for some time. Carter may not be available for this clash, but the Chiefs were the most well balanced side in the Super Rugby competition and for that their versatile flyhalf Aaron Cruden must take a lot of the credit. The All Blacks also boast Israel Dagg at fullback, and along with Carter, Dagg is currently one of the best tactical kickers in the world.
So why should the All Blacks fear a forward-oriented onslaught from a second-rate Bok pack, and a series of high bombs from a Bok flyhalf that is low on confidence and form?
There is of course, the other option of counter-attacking if the Bok kick-chase is poor. And again, the All Blacks have the versatile players to punish wayward kicks. Cory Jane, despite his size, is one of the best players in the air, and also one of the most dangerous on the counter-attack. So too Dagg.
There is little chance of the Boks out-muscling the All Blacks, so for me the overdoing of the kick-chase tactic is likely to backfire.
Meyer has painted himself into a corner by selecting Steyn. The selection of Pat Lambie or Johan Goosen at flyhalf would have given the visitors a more rounded and less predictable look, and given them a better chance of a good performance.
It was the big problem with Peter de Villiers’ Bok team, there was no intention to embrace a balanced game. Much of that refusal to evolve centred on the persistent selection of Steyn. Meyer is now guilty of the same mistake.
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47 Comments
12 Sep 2012, 07:27 am
Boring Dragons!!!!!!!!
12 Sep 2012, 07:41 am
WTF….getting a bit peeved now these Keo journos are jumping on the bandwagon, giving it to Meyer and his mates…pumping up the Abs as Gods gift to rugby…..coming up with nothing original…..only doom and gloom….this is an Ab v Bok test FFS, this defeatist attitude is beginning to make me sick…..
12 Sep 2012, 07:58 am
Plan A is their Plan B, so if the Plan A is not working they will resort to Plan B which is Plan A.
12 Sep 2012, 08:00 am
Hope this is on at the same time as the Argie match,I know which one I’ll be watching!
GO Puma’s!
12 Sep 2012, 08:09 am
@Te Rangatira-2: Morning. What is really making me sick, is how long it took for the ‘over the top’ Heyneke praise singers to come to their senses.
I must be honest, while I have been one of Meyer’s biggest critics, I’m enjoying watching honest and humble rugby supporters (oh the irony) like HG and his manicurists flap around consumed with hate.
That alone makes Meyer staying on as Bok coach for another 12 years worthwhile
12 Sep 2012, 08:13 am
Still believe the game will be a close 1….
The boks are wounded and ridiculed…..seen this movie before…..Boks will come out snorting….but probably lose in last 10 minutes by 5 ….
Go Boks….this Kiwi team not that flash…
12 Sep 2012, 08:18 am
I see in Beeld that one of the reasons CJ Stander left was because Heyneke wanted to convert him into a hooker.
Seriously what the hell Heyneke, what is wrong with you? One of our most promising young Loose forwards and because he is JUST 1.87m tall you want to move him to hooker?
12 Sep 2012, 08:25 am
@grant10-6: It is in the last quarter of play that the shattered Bok’s self confidence might let them down.
The AB team isn’t all that just yet, and at any other time in Bok history, one could back the Bok’s to pull out some sort of ‘we’ll show you’ strength.
I’m just not sure this group of players has it in them – they don’t look happy, they don’t sound happy and all you have to do is press pause on the PVR at the moment Habana leaves the field and sits himself down next to Lambie…..pause, take a good look at their faces as Lambie reaches out to almost comfort Habana.
Meyer has cruelly fuckedaround with them, their self confidence and their individuality – no question.
If the Boks manage to find the mental strength to do anything against the AB’s, it will be because of the players as individuals, and not because of anything Meyer has done, said or ‘coached’.
I think of the English team WC 2007 where Ashton was banished and told to fuckoff.
I think of the French team WC 2011 where Lievremont was basically kicked out the change rooms before the semi final.
That’s my take.
(We will see what mood the Boks are in when they make their first set of tackles….It is in tackling that you can see commitment, passion, intent and pride in the jersey)
12 Sep 2012, 08:30 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-8:
Good comment, my thoughts exactly on how the Boks do not seem to be in a happy place at the moment.
Maybe they do not believe in what Meyer is trying to do?
12 Sep 2012, 08:37 am
This pack is not good enough for a plan A or B.
12 Sep 2012, 08:38 am
Jeez, Flip van der Merwe.
Does anyone here rate him?
12 Sep 2012, 08:44 am
Luister Meyer is klapstadig tonteldoos of the very utmost temperature
12 Sep 2012, 08:51 am
@Te Rangatira-2:
morning tr, hope you’re good and thanks for the respect shown.
bokke to win this game by a whisker.
read, messam or vito danger men who need to be liquidated.
@Kietzphat-11:
no, i do not rate him.
12 Sep 2012, 09:30 am
i had no doubt meyer would pick morne. what i am hoping is that goosen gets 30 mins instead of just 8 or 10. and if he shows his aptitude, he’ll either get 40 against aus, or a full 80. meyer is bringing him in slowly. no doubt he knows boks are screwed, so why throw him in the deepend?
personally i’d go with lambie at 10, with goosen on bench, but heyneke hasn’t given lambie 1 minute at 10, which tells me he does not rate him there.
12 Sep 2012, 10:04 am
@Te Rangatira-2: That’s the SA media for you mate. Also why I avoid newspapers etc…..they lead you by the nose, lie and fabricate all for sensationalism & sales. Same with this mob…they’re very good at gauging the mood of readers and dishing up stories based around that.
A lot (sady) will revolve around how long HM leaves M Steyn on. If our forwards are struggling, he’ll just drop further and further into his safety bubble and it could turn into a massacre. If our pack can achieve some sort of parity and get 9 and 10 on the front foot, and the tactical kicking is good I think we can put pressure on them. Hoping we’ll see Lambie and Goosen get 20-30 minutes at least.
But a lot is going to depend on their headspace, as Shark’s Pedigree said.
12 Sep 2012, 10:06 am
@munkiboi-14: I’d even prefer Lambie at 15 to Niknaks…we might see something other than “run 5 steps and up-and-under”
Will HM be paralysed into inaction like a deer in headlights, when Steyn gets nothing going (and he will) or will he bring on the young guys this time if things aren’t happening?
12 Sep 2012, 11:40 am
That back row is not bad at all, all you need is Schalk Burger and you have the Stormers backrow of 2011 who destroyed all other backrows in the S15 competition, Coetzee for Alberts in the 2nd 40 and Bob’s your uncle…
12 Sep 2012, 11:44 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-5: I must admit, watching him blow his gasket has been fun. You almost want Meyer to do something outrageous involving a Sharks player, just to see him go off.
12 Sep 2012, 11:46 am
InZane should never have been in the squad.
12 Sep 2012, 11:54 am
@Atreides-16: Let’s hope so !! Agree Lambie ahead of Spiky dreads any day of the week. Perhaps not such a terrible idea to start with MS, ahead of da Goose. Goosen, if he carries on the way he has been going, and stays injury-free, will be the Bok flyhalf for several years. Let’s not “Gaffie” the poor oke…..he’s been out for a looong time with injury so, strange as it may seem, I actually agree with HM sticking to MS for this Test. Maybe one last “hurrah” (or OMG Nooooo !!)for the current players.
Eben is a sly one……purposely gettin’ banned so he doesn’t have to be involved in a big smack from the ABs….Flip (Penalty-a-minute, Yello card passenger)won’t be of any help……Pack overall showed a lack of passion, commitment and drive against da Wallybangers so I don’t expect much will change this weekend…….
As to Plan A and Plan B……if there was a Plan A, it would be possible to switch to Plan B. In the absence of a Plan A in the first instance, Plan B becomes irrelevant. When we do get good ball and a huge overlap on the outside then FS or JDV “skip-pass”, thereby negating any advantage. Big problem, when we get the ball we don’t know what to do with it so just hoof upfield and pray…..
12 Sep 2012, 14:02 pm
Kietzphat…
I also think Flip van der Perver is a total ritard.
Just cos he’s big, HM has a major crush on him.
He has absolutely no rugby brain what so ever.
Everyone on the planet has witnessed the penalty diarrhea that he suffers from.
AAARRRRGHH, it’s going from bad to worse.
12 Sep 2012, 14:48 pm
Eish, We will all sit there Saturday cheering our hearts out and deep down we know the outcome. It won’t be pretty. AB by 15 points.
12 Sep 2012, 14:52 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-5:
Yeah but you can understand the confusion.
Transformation summed it up very well on another blog the other day.
Firstly, out of the AVAILABLE choices, HM was certainly the right one considering his success over the years. Yes this success has been borne of a certain style that is percieved to be one dimensional and yet the succes he has had has come with the Bulls scoring more TRIES than anyone else in Super Rugby not just more points. So one dimensional or not, he’s been doing something right.
Secondly, while at the Bulls and before he was made Bok coach, he went on about changing the style of the way the Bulls played to be more modern in nature. A more ball in hand approach if you will. And this wasnt only talk because he then backed this up with signing 2 of the most promising running backs in the country at the same time, right under the noses of the Stormers. (JJ and Sadie)
So the confidence some here had in HM can be directly attributed to that. What HM has done with the Boks all of a sudden is dislplay an alarming lack of flexibiltiy in game plan and player selection which was not what he was prescribing before he took control.
Its this lack of flexibility that has many fans doubting. And rightly so.
12 Sep 2012, 14:53 pm
What do you guys think of Ruan Pienaar? Every time this guy goes for a ball, it feels like 5 minutes! He’s SO slow!
12 Sep 2012, 14:55 pm
What worries me most is all HM talks about is the kick-chase. Yes i do see most other teams employ the kick-chase game plan when the situation calls for it but they also have other game plan strategies.
Currently HM has betted all his cards on the Kick Chase and nothing else, wow that is very worrying!!
Yes the kick-chase works when executed correctly but whatelse does HM have to compliment the kick-chase plan, nothing at all, very very sad!
Plus HMs unwavouring favour of the Bulls players must be putting alot noses out of joint.
HM is going about things the right way to bring disharmony to a Bok setup, as we have seen all this before.
12 Sep 2012, 15:02 pm
boks dont need a plan b.
if they stick to their structures, execute well and keep errors down then plan A will work just fine.
rugby is a simple game.
12 Sep 2012, 15:02 pm
@lesiba-24:
hondkak
end of.
12 Sep 2012, 15:05 pm
@lesiba-24:
Playing to the game plan boet. He’s obviously been told to ‘Slow it down and box kick’
Watch footage of him playing for Ulster. He never takes that long.
12 Sep 2012, 15:05 pm
Well we are all watching the train come belting down the track and seem unable to do anything about it. Part of me hopes Boks get a real spanking on the weekend, I am a fan but the way this mess has been cooked up they deserve it.
If we are to rebuild get rid of JdP, Beast ,Morne , Zane and JdV from the run on team. Take our lumps and really rebuild with players who will be peaking in a years time. And adopt a positive game plan, SARU will be surprised by the support if fans can see an end game .. This kick chase game plan just doesnt work because you try harder at it ..
12 Sep 2012, 15:08 pm
All Blacks will smash the boks this comin weekend.
Goosen should have started this weekend, with Lambie on the bench. At least the boks may have been in with a shout. Now with Steyn at the helm with those suspect forwards, the saffas are goin to get the beat down.
All Blacks to win by 21 points unless steyn gets injured durin the warm up then the mighty ABs to win by 14.
12 Sep 2012, 15:13 pm
@race of tan-25:
Which makes me wonder what the morale of the team is like in the camp…
With all the bias that the coach has towards certain players, because of his “game plan”, surely this breeds some form of resentment from some players in the camp? I mean seriously, I’ll be shocked if most of the players in the camp are not joking about Morne being the coach’s pet!
12 Sep 2012, 15:14 pm
@Doughnut-29: Who would you replace Beast with?
12 Sep 2012, 15:20 pm
I don’t understand this d00s reluctance to start with Goosen if he believes he is that good. Everyone keeps pointing to Gaffie as an example of why he shouldn’t start. Gaffie didn’t end up as he did because he was thrown in the deep end too early. Gaffie ended up as he did because he had a fragile temperament. Not everyone who gets thrown in the deep end will respond in the same way! What a farken stupid analogy to draw from Gaffie’s experience! The shackle draggers believe if someone is good enough they are old enough. Just look at examples of young guys they have thrown in…Giteau, O’Connor, Pocock! These guys didn’t turn into Gaffie FFS! This stupid moron must fvckoff because he is ruining my enjoyment of Springbok rugby!!!!!
12 Sep 2012, 15:23 pm
@Skeppie-32: First up Beast should be dropped until he regains form and starts showing up for the big games …meanwhile I would bring in BJ and Guthro on a one year playing /mentoring contract .. then identify 2TH and 2LH and build them for 2013+. (Cilliers and Coonie being one each)
In addition we seem to be struggling for settled Locking players .. not sure that I have the answer to that but back three are unbalanced, should be Flo/fit Brussow, Alberts/fit Shalk, Duane and Strauss
Did I not read that Peter DVilliers was signed as the scrum coach ? What happened as van Graan (spelling) is whom i am reading about ..
12 Sep 2012, 15:26 pm
@shark4life-33: And don’t get me started on Sideshow Bob. Lambie can do everything Bob can do at least equally as well plus he can do a whole lot more that Bob hasn’t even considered yet. If you want to rebuild then do it! Don’t say you’re building/growing a team and then keep selecting the usual clowns who haven’t delivered us anything of note for a few years. Wasn’t Lambie first choice fullback at the WC ahead of Bob? What has he done so badly since then to play second fiddle to the most average fullback in Springbok history?
12 Sep 2012, 15:39 pm
@Sir Watson-3: Elementary Sir Watson
12 Sep 2012, 15:51 pm
@John Galt-28:
maybe he never takes that long because the games are that slow to begin?
in the land of the wheelchair bound scrummies the one legged scrummy is king…
12 Sep 2012, 16:04 pm
Anyone that writes about a Plan B should be shot. Vague catchphrases are unfortunately so popular on the internet and the masses just lap it up and regurgitate it endless with little understanding or even consensus as to what “Plan B” would mean.
12 Sep 2012, 16:27 pm
JC forget this plan A plan B c.**** – it will help jack squat if Heineken can’t even identify and pick the right players.
He has to dump the ploddersd and the has-beens and the never-will-bees and those useless assistant coaches of his.
Morne must go end of career go.
Alberts and Potgieter and Bekker and Jannie and Beast and Flip are not test quality players – start with these plods and take it from there. JdV must go too, useless skipper who is not a forward, but first get in proper forwards.
12 Sep 2012, 16:47 pm
I imagine Peter de Villiers is watching this all unfold – and is laughing his head off.
12 Sep 2012, 16:57 pm
@lesiba-31: seriously! I mean really? Where is the n.
12 Sep 2012, 17:34 pm
KEO
WTF
The whole day I could not log onto this site from work. Something about a trojan black hole.
What’s up with that?
12 Sep 2012, 23:20 pm
Can someone please explain to me why you ever would want to kick possession away. Is rugby not supposed to be about ball possession:
1. Recycle own ball quick
2. Slow down opposition ball
And IF you decide that kicking is your game plan, then why do that unless you have 2-3 skilled fetchers that will ensure you are at least a success with item 2 above?
13 Sep 2012, 03:09 am
Do not despair Bok supporters. I’m a Kiwi hoping you get thrashed but there is something not quite right about this stadium.
No one during the RWC last year shone there. Goal kicking became a lottery & one end of the stadium has no grandstand. I have heard the stadium has no soul & whilst the atmosphere is present players feel the closed in effect (because of the closed roof) gives off a very strange almost claustrophobic feel. Reading reports many players do not rate the stadium at all.
I’m not writing the Boks off. At Eden Park or Westpac Stadium you may well have been given a lesson in 15 man rugby but something about this stadium stinks & my gut feeling is the AB’s may well come off worse for wear. Strange game coming up methinks.
13 Sep 2012, 05:15 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-5:
Hi Pedigree, sorry for the 24hr delay in replying. Like yourself HG is an intelligent individual and can see the ensuing carnage that is the Springbok team at the moment and he like many others are finally realising it is an unnecessary descent into mediocrity brought about by a coach whose bloody mindedness and strategic obsolescence seems to have no end. You of course could see the writing on the wall from day one, with the appointment of Meyer and his want of familiarity (Bulls Yes Men) and control over everything including the thought patterns of players on the field.It is sad really and like I said ,unnecessary, because I have come to like many bloggers on this site who have a true passion for Rugby and the Bok and also my fellow countrymen who rejoice in the greatest rivalry in rugby and I don’t want to see the Ab v Bok tests seen as foregone conclusions by any set of supporters.
13 Sep 2012, 05:24 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-13:
hehe….My good friend Houston…..if the Bok win by a whisker I will think of you and your love for the Bok and hatred towards the Abs, take your pick. Yes I respect the rivalry Ab v Bok, but I also respect people like you who give their unwavering support to their team through thick or thin.
13 Sep 2012, 08:06 am
@Te Rangatira-45:
Good post.
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