Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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14 Sep 2012, 16:26 pm
@grant10-1046: 14 points sounds about right.
I go ABs by 15.
14 Sep 2012, 16:27 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-1035: “i’ve been written off before, i’m used to this” gee wizz
6 games deep and he’s claiming martrydom
14 Sep 2012, 16:29 pm
Boks by 2….
M Steyn do tweak a hammie in 33 rd second of the game
F Louw to harass Mc Caw at the breakdown….
F Steyn to dominate midfield
Kirchner to attack ball in hand ….
And I have a date with the latest Oliver Stone movie at 5 30 pm
outta here
14 Sep 2012, 16:31 pm
@Transformation-1052:
Most people seem to have written him off though?
If this blog is a cross section of popular opinion.
Look at the Supersport comments team.
Lashes.
14 Sep 2012, 16:31 pm
@Dawn-1049: ok….just got taught how….bloody miracle I tell you…
14 Sep 2012, 16:33 pm
@gunther-1044:
I’m not refuting the fact that it is a coaching tool and I’m not saying that it should’nt be used.
What I’m sayin is that HM and kie are so obsessed with their kick and chase that they would use any excuse (read stats) to enforce it.
Anyway if they were using stats, they would realise that the return on the kick and chase approach isn’t nearly as high as it would be from a ball-in-hand approach.
And they did not need to go and suck some yanks hind t.it to know that.
You really are a opinionated despicable c.unt, aren’t you
14 Sep 2012, 16:36 pm
@gunther-1054: LOL…
last week i saw even Naas had to get on the bandwagon
but i don’t think he’s been written off, he must just show a little flexibility and the biltong gallery will be quiet…
14 Sep 2012, 16:43 pm
@TooMuchRugby-1056:
It was just about stats etc it was about their general approach to to sport.
The trip was not about strategy etc or kick and chase or any other playing style.
You have kick and chase and the Bulls on your brain.
Fuckinell but you are galactically stupid.
What do you do that there are no longer jobs reserved for you?
14 Sep 2012, 16:45 pm
@TooMuchRugby-1056: the reason wahy they think like that is because the coaching team lack imagination as to what to coach the team to do with ball-in-hand eg, the 4th minute against aussies kirchner loads one up, kurtley beale or ioane goes for it gets tackled, bok turnover (KICK n CHASE WORKING BOYTJIES)
what ensues afterwards is TEN PHASES of rubbish, one off runners bashing it up from 35m and not busting the advantage line and then what happens after the 10th phase??????
Morne Steyn attempts a DROP GOAL and misses, possession and territory wasted!!!
the kick n chase worked but the team hand no fecking clue how to break the aussies 30m from their tryline!
14 Sep 2012, 16:47 pm
@Transformation-1057:
Indeed. Ashwin has him in his sights.
It’s a learning curve.
But you have to be willing to learn,
Let’s hope he is.
14 Sep 2012, 16:49 pm
@gunther-1058:
I realise why they went to the US, snotsuiger. Whatever it was they learned there, isn’t working?
They have forgotten their roots and murdered the soul of rugby. Something you would have realised if you actually played the game.
I gather that you have been blogging on Keo for some years now. One would have thought you would have learnt something by now.
14 Sep 2012, 16:50 pm
Chip kick?
14 Sep 2012, 16:50 pm
@TooMuchRugby-1018: Gunther’s got very little to say about rugby. I’ve yet to read any insightful comments about the game from his numerous posts on teh blog.
14 Sep 2012, 16:51 pm
@Spiesisworthless1-1063: Quite a few about 20/20 cricket though
14 Sep 2012, 16:51 pm
@Transformation-1059:
Precisely.
But some people like too much buggery hear kick and chase in a kroeg and think it sounds clever.
14 Sep 2012, 16:53 pm
@gunther-1060: i reckon john mitchell was the only chap with his weapon on safety and in the holster in that studio, campo came through with an uzzi, they were asking him arb questions about the argie vs kiwis game and he managed to slip heyneke meyer’s name in there somewhere
rat-tat-tat-tat-tat! >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> heyneke meyer
14 Sep 2012, 16:53 pm
@Spiesisworthless1-1063:
Ooh look another Kenner.
This from somebody whose file contribution to this blog is to tell players he doesn’t like to fukkoff again and again.
Ad nauseam.
Ah but remember you own me at life.
You win.
14 Sep 2012, 16:53 pm
@Transformation-1059:
My thoughts exactly!
I’m not understanding why these guys can not see this.
14 Sep 2012, 16:55 pm
@Transformation-1066:
Maybe campo sent him his cv and got turned down.
I believe Rassie is in the dog box too.
14 Sep 2012, 16:56 pm
@grant10-1053:
It’s a good movie.
What you will learn from it is that the savages are everywhere including in our fancy neighbourhoods etc…. no need to go look anywhere else to find them.
And alo that whatever a (normal) person does he/she cannot change the world, but the world can and will change them.
I will give the movie 4/5.
14 Sep 2012, 16:57 pm
So was just watching a bit of ITM- Otago and Counties Manukau
Odongo had a very decent game as a starter and these 2 teams just played the game the way its supposed to be.
In fact there wasn’t even 1 kick in the last 15 minutes.
SA rugby is stupid to lose players like Odongo as he’s starting in NZ’s version of Currie Cup yet Bulls told him he needs more development…go figure!
14 Sep 2012, 16:59 pm
@gunther-1065:
Are you on Tik or are you just plain flucking demented?
Transformation is agreeing with me, you are agreeing with him, I am agreeing with him………….but your’e not agreeing with me.
Your’e like a child on the playground, regurgitating whatever your’e mates are telling you to do.
Man up and admit you were just born a doos.
14 Sep 2012, 17:00 pm
@gunther-1067: Your post is mostly correct except I only told Kirtchner to f*** off a handful of times. And offered numerous explanations for my vitriol. He’s a perfect fit for Heynekes game-plan though, so I’ll have a go at Heyneke from now on.
14 Sep 2012, 17:03 pm
@TooMuchRugby-1072:
The irony wasn’t list on me my little doorstop.
That’s because you are too stupid to understand what he saying.
The problem was not with the original kick chase which you are onsessed with because you think it makes you sound like you know what you are talking about.
Honestly does your wife do your shoelaces for you?
How are you even typing this?
Sort yourself out malkop.
14 Sep 2012, 17:08 pm
@Spiesisworthless1-1073:
That’s because you have the EQ of a 6 year old like too much buggery here.
You’ve mad your point they you don’t rate the guy.
Neither do I.
Telling him to fukkoff 30 times a day on an anonymous blog is just a bit silly.
Make your point and move on and you will continue to own people at life.
And now I must get cracking so you and old cocknose here can chat quietly amongst yourselves.
Have a great weekend.
Go Bokke.
14 Sep 2012, 17:11 pm
@cab-101: ‘Mama Nonu’
14 Sep 2012, 17:40 pm
JIrre but you girls are pretty punchy for a Friday afternoon.
Must be Spring, all the rammetjies keen to butt heads.
I suppose now that Poops has donnered his wife a few times and passed out on the back step of his trailer, there’s no one else to fight with but each other.
14 Sep 2012, 17:54 pm
@Atreides-1077:
14 Sep 2012, 17:57 pm
@Dawn-1002:
It’s the PR work
Old schools believe in the players do they talking on the field btw
14 Sep 2012, 18:02 pm
@cane-1003:
Was meant to you
It’s the PR work
Old schools believe in the players do their talking on the field btw
14 Sep 2012, 18:35 pm
@Heavens Game-851: ‘Piri Piri Weepu (… who ate Jimmy Cowan…?) is the 9 for the AB’s.’
Weepu ate Cowan?
14 Sep 2012, 18:59 pm
@grant10-1042: How fecking arrogant.
14 Sep 2012, 19:05 pm
@grant10-1046: You are very good.
14 Sep 2012, 19:11 pm
@TooMuchRugby-1061: Hey you guys.We are all we have got.Stop the evisceration.concentrate on the enemy.
14 Sep 2012, 19:52 pm
@ryecatcher-1084: Staggers from armchair and goes to bed.Goodnight all.Or most of you.
14 Sep 2012, 20:04 pm
@grant10-1053: Morne does not get injured because of how he plays. Tnink about it, when was the last time? I don’t think he has ever been injured ever since 2009 when he got up and kicked the winning penalty for the B and I Lions tour. It has to be some kind of record. 2009 – 2012 and never been injured! He has also played every match of this passed S16.
14 Sep 2012, 20:28 pm
@rossoneri-1086:
you’re being ridiculous. when ws the last time adn carter ever got injured?
and dont, just dont mention the pulled hammy.
14 Sep 2012, 22:44 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-1087: At the moment, during the world cup. MORNE! Never gets injured. Ever!!!
15 Sep 2012, 07:58 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-1087:
lol idiot.
Injured now and in the world cup.
A pulled hammy is an injury so why cant that get mentioned?
15 Sep 2012, 08:00 am
@1087 bakkies: you are kiddIng, right? Carter gOt injured in the 07 Qf against France, as did Evans shortly afterwards, leaving us with the cumbersome mcalistair at 10. That cost us the game irrespective of any other factors….. At the end of 2008 he had a short stint in France where he got a serious injury, from memory he missed all (???) of the tn series, which is why the boks had the joy of lining up against Donald…. He has basically been injury prone since 2007 and kiwis were very worried about this going into the 2O11 wc.
Like jonny w before him, carter’s style of play and miles on the clock have left him an unreliable starter.
Grant fox on the other hand never got injured from memory, and he played a lot like steyne
15 Sep 2012, 08:02 am
Ps am in Auckland for a kids soccer tourney, and the rubbish motel I am staying at with the kids has no sky sport!!!! Aaaaargh!!!!!!!!
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