Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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13 Sep 2012, 06:36 am
AB by plenty and i mean plenty. Springboks lack attacking flair ,no penetration and no skill. As usual will run out of steam come 60 minutes. I will rather watch NRL
13 Sep 2012, 07:05 am
Some positives amongst the gloom .. FH and Habs on the wing will hopefully stem some runners. Hope Duane can keep a lid on Read whilst Flo keeps Reeche busy … FSteyn should keep Nonu in check
Thats all I got folks … !!
13 Sep 2012, 07:05 am
boks to pip the cheats.
weepu, messam, cruden, savea, nonu..?.. weak links right there.
will put money where my mouth is 6/1 odds for saturdays game and 18/1 for comp winner.
go bokke!!
13 Sep 2012, 07:10 am
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by Jason Humphries 13 September 2012, 05:20
The clamour for the prodigiously talented Johan Goosen to be named as the Springboks’ test flyhalf is growing but South Africa coach Heyneke Meyer said that, for the time being at least, Morne Steyn still has the inside track for the number 10 test jersey.
Steyn enjoyed a meteoric start to his test career playing a major role in the series win over the British and Irish Lions in 2009 while he won his first three tests against the All Blacks in the same year including scoring all of his team’s points in a 31-19 victory over New Zealand in Durban.
The 28-year-old Bulls pivot has scored a total of 483 points in his 40 tests but he has come in for increasing criticism with some pundits believing that Steyn is stifling the Springbok backline with his seemingly conservative approach.
Steyn also has to deal with the 20-year-old Goosen breathing down his neck after Goosen showed a few impressive touches when making his test debut last weekend off the bench against Australia.
However, Meyer is backing Steyn and his style of play to come good for South Africa.
“I’m a big believer in a guy sticking to his strengths, and I think Morne is a great player in his own right. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, so I don’t think that he needs to change the way he plays. It’s more about the outside backs who must use their opportunities,” Meyer said.
Meyer explained that having two slightly different players vying for the flyhalf position could only benefit the Springboks in the long run.
“It’s great to have two slightly different types of 10s, because then you can play two different types of games. Morne has done well for the Boks and we have won a lot of games with him at 10. So I can’t see why he must change. He has played a lot of rugby and probably needs a break, but he is getting back to his best form. It’s great to have competition in a position,” he said.
However, Meyer, despite his admirable defence of Steyn, is clearly a fan of Cheetahs flyhalf Goosen.
“He is a quality player and reminds me a lot of the great 10s at that same age. He is the whole package. He’s mentally tough, has a great kicking game and has a lot of speed. And he is actually probably too physical. Going forward, you need two great players in this position to win the World Cup, and while this is a tough year, there are a lot of youngsters coming through that will help us with our depth. He will definitely put pressure on Morne going forward,” Meyer enthused.
It must be remembered that Goosen has played precious little rugby recently after suffering a serious shoulder injury during his team’s Super Rugby campaign.
He played just 50 minutes for Currie Cup rugby after making his return before earning his South Africa call-up and he has played 10 minutes in the green and gold.
Sixty minutes of rugby means that Goosen probably lacks some match-fitness and it would have been unwise to have named him in the run-on XV for Saturday’s test against New Zealand.
He will almost certainly have his chance off the bench but Meyer is loath to push Goosen too quickly.
“I would love to give him a break, but it is not always in my hands. You shouldn’t push a guy like Goosen too early. I think, already coming off the bench in an away game against Australia, he did well. To play him against New Zealand in New Zealand, he hasn’t even played a Test match in South Africa, so it is a huge ask,” he said
13 Sep 2012, 07:11 am
Struggles may begin right at the front. Woodcock was the form loosehead @ WC11 & his direct opponent Jannie isn’t in the same class as a prop. Beast is prone to lapses at scrum time i.r.o binding. I reckon he’ll struggle vs Owen Franks. Sam Whitelock returns; advantage NZ in the second row. In the back row NZ have the world’s form 8th man, a proven veteran openside, and an in form blindside. All three are quick & play the link role well.
SA also have a scratchy, makeshift bench.
That’s my two cents
13 Sep 2012, 07:14 am
Desperate Boks by 2
13 Sep 2012, 07:17 am
Just saw a headline on street poles saying Lambie says he’s not happy!
Anyone else know the details of the story or if he was misquoted?
13 Sep 2012, 07:17 am
@grant10-6: You don’t REALLY think that’s going to happen now do you Grant?
13 Sep 2012, 07:17 am
Is that it? The sum of the match preview. Not worth reading at all, hell why did I even bother. Come now Vrede put some more effort into it man.
13 Sep 2012, 07:19 am
Bakkies you losing a few rand late Saturday night will be the icing on the cake, around the 60 minute mark is when you should start rolling out your weekly excuses.
13 Sep 2012, 07:23 am
@grant10-4: **** HM man, if he feels Goosen isn’t match fit to start WTF is he there when there’s a player like Jantjies still here@home
Was telling some folks@work that watching the Lions outsmart the Bulls this past weekend there were a few things to take note of…
Sometimes jantjies kicks a bomb, sometimes its a grubber, sometimes its for territory and sometimes its little chip kick…There’s VARIETY so you don’t know how to defend!
The Lions team in general, sometimes the mix it in the forwards sometimes the run from the 22 and sometimes they kick for space, sometimes they offload…there’s again VARIETY!!
If the Lions can get this right with flippin Johan Ackerman as Head Coach can HM lose his paranoia FFS!
13 Sep 2012, 07:25 am
@papaown-7: two day old news – the Lambster says he is sick of sitting on the bench. Sitting next to the prodigy knowing that it is the goose and not him that is destined to replace that inferior Morne.
13 Sep 2012, 07:26 am
you need to get something straight china, i will never root for or bet on the blacks… ever… until the day i farken die.
yours is the last farken team in the universe i would root for until such time as they changed their culture as a team and as people.
and on the other hand i am a bok supporter through and through and will back them time and again, no matter what.
you can troll or you can roll on by.
mndtm.
13 Sep 2012, 07:27 am
@RL-12:
it hurts but its true.
13 Sep 2012, 07:28 am
The little Lamb will end up in Europe you can see that one coming.
13 Sep 2012, 07:29 am
gwailo in china is lonely again and has nothing better to do than troll here
why does he not rather spend time with his kids
just because he had a absent father does not mean he cannot break the cycle.
13 Sep 2012, 07:30 am
Nobody is asking you to but it will be fantastic knowing you’ve lost money,any new excuses in the pipeline?
13 Sep 2012, 07:32 am
@Fern-16: That’s COMPLETELY uncalled for
I just saw 1st hand now how the threads go from rugby to nasty and vile talk and I think you’re better than that
13 Sep 2012, 07:33 am
You’ve never been a father you’re not qualified to comment on such matters, stick to your ex pat Saffa shagging stories.
13 Sep 2012, 07:35 am
@Fern-16:
i mean seriouslly, china is a big country. there must be so much to do there?
and yet here he is, looking for validation.
13 Sep 2012, 07:36 am
@papaown-18:
No I am not.
@NZINCHINA-19:
What wong?I do know if I did have a kids I would rather be spending time with them than troll on the interwebs.
I goot roll,hectic day of work ahead.
Have a nice day/eve all.
13 Sep 2012, 07:37 am
glad to lose money on the boks.
no excuses just the truth, your team is filthy
13 Sep 2012, 07:39 am
Gloves are off early round here … lets keep it clean gents.
I predict a very empty and quiet keo next week barring the usual kiwi posters who keep coming on safa sites …. strange eh ?
13 Sep 2012, 07:40 am
So its official you’ve waved the white flag then?
13 Sep 2012, 07:42 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-22: Bakkies I dont think kiwis are any (much) dirtier than other teams .. I do agree they get an easier ride from the refs… so blame the admin and reffing panel.
13 Sep 2012, 07:42 am
The internet is global buddy its not 1965
13 Sep 2012, 07:43 am
@papaown-8: lol…..no
13 Sep 2012, 07:43 am
no, its official you’re a doos
13 Sep 2012, 07:43 am
@NZINCHINA-24: white flag as in surrender ? Nah just a realistic appreciation of where the Boks are .. not that it needs qualifying to a kiwi on a safa rugby site … ISP probs at Silverfern perhaps ??
13 Sep 2012, 07:47 am
Never been on Silverfern I prefer the int flavour and time zone of KEO, if we weren’t here could you imagine how boring it would be, SAFFA dream teams posted 24/7 and very unrealistic posts never challenged.
13 Sep 2012, 07:52 am
Funny how closely this Bok team’s decline can be matched to its steady decline in the number of Sharks in starting lineup ..Sorry, couldn’t resist
13 Sep 2012, 07:55 am
@NZINCHINA-30: hahah fair point ..
Just a shame that Boks are not going to be seriously challenging this year. I do think another year and Meyer may come out of his laager mentality and embrace a more complete game ..
If Deans is booted by Aus I would really like to see him coach in SA .. Stormers would be a good fit …it would also benefit the Boks like Plum has done ..
13 Sep 2012, 07:58 am
@Doughnut-25:
no, they are dirtier and they get a free ride with admin/reffing panel.
boks cannot act out in instances of low cheap shots for fear of being binned easy (we all know thats how it rolls).
meanwhile kiwis max out on their coconut tackles and the like galore.
13 Sep 2012, 08:00 am
They may not challenge for the title but I reckon the AB Bokke games will be close affairs, most of the time they are. Deans still has his team at number 2 in the world I doubt their next coach could go one better.
13 Sep 2012, 08:02 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-22:
Howzit Houston…..I’m looking forward to a good hard game this weekend, and to be honest would love to see some feeling (no quarter given) that breaks out into the good ole retro days.
13 Sep 2012, 08:02 am
Bakkies its the Bokke who have a man down because of foul play, stop playing the old fool.
13 Sep 2012, 08:03 am
@grant10-4:
Oh FFS if Heyneke starts talking about the RWC already I am going to lose interest in his tenure pretty ******* fast.
13 Sep 2012, 08:04 am
Piasant has he really? oh dear
13 Sep 2012, 08:06 am
@NZINCHINA-34: Damn Skippy, Deans has done well to stay ahead of Springboks for roughly 2 years in the running, and considering how shallow the pool of players is in Aus when compared to SA. I really don’t get what all the recent Deans bashing has been about. Although, i have a feeling the Argies are going to pull a number on them on Saturday
13 Sep 2012, 08:06 am
30 odd posts and no ones asked who the ref is?
surely the man who is going to shoulder all the blame should get a mention?
Saffa standards are slipping, mind you, it is in direct correlation to the way their rugby is also slipping..
what used to be a once feared and respected opponent is now a laughing stock throughout the world, the “revered” physicality, along with the “incredible depth” has truly been shown up to be the fallacies of deficient minds..
I was once told on this blog that SA had so much talent they could beat Aus/NZ and Eng on the same day…
hahaha still, many real supporters have been quite adamant of a loss for their side, and I must say, this is very perplexing. as one who has blogged here for a while
where has the usual Saffa arrogance gone? I see the delusional like Bakkies cling to cheating, but when pointed out to him his own teams indiscretions he refuses to face up to it… mind you, this bloke thinks its perfectly acceptable to give a ref a gold watch and that Burger did not gouge Fitzgerald..
I do think it will be closer than what most are predicting, but the ABs superior fitness and cohesion in the engine room should insure a 10-12 point victory..
13 Sep 2012, 08:07 am
@NZINCHINA-38:
Just read it in the article Grant posted:
“Going forward, you need two great players in this position to win the World Cup”
13 Sep 2012, 08:09 am
@PissAnt-37:
It’s becoming a familiar refrain.
“We’re in a building phase, judge met at the World Cup.”
13 Sep 2012, 08:10 am
BYB Argies have a reasonable chance on Sat, ran you close and pushed us very hard for 65 mins, great stuff the tourney needed it.
13 Sep 2012, 08:11 am
@Te Rangatira-35:
morning tr, i;m good save for this china doos who baits me (which is easy to do seeing as i hate the ab’s). ja, hope it will be cracker all round irrespective of the outcome as long as its as fairly done as possible.
dont see the boks ever going retro anymore, we’re stitched up legal wise by the anzacs. which is a pity because rugby’s the poorer without a bit of hows your mother. and yes, it pisses me off that the anzac teams are waved through to pull off head highs, stomping, shoulder charges, professional foul obstructing and the like far, far more than the boks ever could.
it only takes the hint of illegality for the boks to get unreservedly pinged while the ab’s do the same and get away with it, 2010 comes to mind.
13 Sep 2012, 08:13 am
PA would be sad for the fans if he’s going to pull that oldie but a goodie, lots of SAFFA fans pulling their hair out!!!
13 Sep 2012, 08:13 am
2010 was a beauty.
13 Sep 2012, 08:16 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-44: hahahahaha
comical bakkies, comical..
youre pathetic…
13 Sep 2012, 08:17 am
Off the subject….but is there anyone with the desire to Riverdance Flatley style, on Wayne Parnell’s torso this morning, whilst wearing stillettos? Or is it only me…..
@BokkeYouBeauties-31: And even funnier is how it’s the Sharks players who started for the Boks last week who even more than Morne Steyn fuckled up any chance the Boks had of beating Oz? Beast carded. Alberts missing tackles. Mvovo missing everything. Jannie missing his brother….
Sorry couldn’t resist.
13 Sep 2012, 08:17 am
Houston I’m not baiting you, you insult our team, our people and post articles about unhappy SA immigrants to NZ, what do you expect chocolates and a bunch of daisies?
13 Sep 2012, 08:18 am
@WP-Forever-42: @NZINCHINA-45:
I really despise the World Cup.
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