Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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13 Sep 2012, 15:00 pm
Kaizan Piri gets plenty of flak on KEo but he very rarely has a bad game in black, Perenea injured our halfback stocks look superb Smith, Kerr Barlow, Perenea all still very young and Piri there for experience.
13 Sep 2012, 15:01 pm
@Sheriff-438: “the christian cullen of loosies” will be “offloading” against WP in the Currie Cup
thank you.
13 Sep 2012, 15:01 pm
@Kaizan-441:
The experience factor. Remember Cruden is not experienced so he (the coach) is just compensating.
Piri Weapon never gets intimidated by the Boks; he keeps his cool and keeps them guessing.
13 Sep 2012, 15:02 pm
@katman-446: “Gaddafi Ndoda”….???? LOL
Beyootiful name….
Hellsbells
13 Sep 2012, 15:02 pm
Yip quietly confident we’ve got your number.
13 Sep 2012, 15:03 pm
@NZINCHINA-451: piri’s only starting because aaron smith broke protocols ie he got drunk on saturday and lost track of time or he was hungover and didn’t report for training! TKB will get his chance when fat piri buggers off…
13 Sep 2012, 15:04 pm
@bokfan1-449: Hy’s net oud en eensaam. Eendag sal ons almal daar wees.
Daarom reik ek nou uit na hom. Om die game saam met hom in Vishoek te kyk is soos om stories te gaan lees vir verswakte bejaarde met slegte sig. Baie verreikend vir die siel.
13 Sep 2012, 15:04 pm
@Heavens Game-450:
I don’t think its Capo, HG.
If it is, then his very low profile, unlike the “poodle pomping fellow”.
13 Sep 2012, 15:05 pm
Heyneke made one massive mistake with the people he selected as his trusted side kicks.At the moment he is well and securely trapped under the wheels of his own laager wagon,but he needs the help of his side kicks to free him,but unfortunately they are also trapped under their own wagons.By selecting people singing from the same Blue Bull hymn sheet,Meyer has practically dug his own grave before even starting.He needed to have surrounded him with progressive thinkers willing to differ with him.Big failure in my opinion.
13 Sep 2012, 15:05 pm
@Transformation-452:
13 Sep 2012, 15:05 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-368: oh there’s more
check the last 2 paragraphs, amazing stuff.
Peter’s expansive delusion
This entry was posted on Monday, August 25th, 2008
Peter de Villiers needs to revisit the statistics before continuing his criticism of the Springboks under former coach Jake White.
De Villiers has consistently criticised the conservative approach of the Springboks under by his predecessor and has made a point of telling the rugby world that he wants to move as a far as possible away from that approach and develop a team who play an expansive brand of rugby.
White and his coaching staff acknowledged their limitations in the backline and never made a secret of the fact that they were playing to their strengths in the forwards. Yet when comparing De Villiers and White’s try-scoring records after five Tri-Nations Tests, De Villiers’ criticism is exposed as lacking substance.
White’s conservative Springboks registered 13 tries in four Tri-Nations Tests in 2004 (his first year in charge). De Villiers’ expansive Springboks have scored five in five – two of which came against an Australia side who were in third gear, confident they had done enough to secure the victory at Kings Park on Saturday.
Yet De Villiers continues posture like the divinely appointed saviour of South African rugby. He did admit that God tells him who to select after all. It seems that in his mind he will lead South Africa into rugby’s promised land, where pounding up through the phases is punishable by death and an extravagant tackle offload is rewarded with eternal life.
De Viliers’ philosophy shuns rigid structure – a feature of White’s preferred style – for a more instinctive approach where the players are encouraged to “play what’s in front of them” and break down defensive lines through tackle offloads. Forwards are expected have the handling skills and spatial awareness of backs, sacrificing their fundamental tasks – ruck cleaning being the most notable – in pursuit of tries and an entertaining brand of rugby.
White’s approach feature patient phase-play, territorial dominance gained primarily through the boots of Percy Montgomery and Fourie du Preez, dominance at the tackle point and placed a massive emphasis on bossing the set phases.
It was mind-numbingly boring at times but few would argue that it was effective. A world cup trophy bears testament to this. >/b>
What De Villiers fails to grasp is that his talented group of players find a sense of security in structure. It plays to their conservative mindset and takes the pressure off them to make their own decisions thereby lessening their fear of failure. Springbok rugby is crying out for a pragmatic coach who acknowledges the strengths of his squad and seeks to maximise those.
Sadly, because Saru chose to overlook rugby credentials as a criteria when selecting their coach, that man is in pre-season preparing his charges to face teams like Gloucester and Wasps when he should be drilling the Springboks for a Test against Australia.
Ryan Vrede
13 Sep 2012, 15:05 pm
@katman-424: dont do it, at best you can get your mind bent, at worst you could end up warming up mash potato and soya burgers for the rest of your life.
13 Sep 2012, 15:06 pm
Got to love the naked as a farken Bangkok Ladyboy arrogance of the “salt of the earth” Kiwis…
Fark me, these okes are getting worse than the Poms…
13 Sep 2012, 15:07 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-444:
LOL
I am happy that HM has shown the flexibility to change by selecting F Louw….really do see that as a positive.
Obviously the selection of M Steyn and the non selection of Brussow are ongoing matters of confusion for me!
But fark I dont dig the Kiwis lauding it over us……and I reckon we stuck with HM for the next 4 so we all between a rock and a hard place…..
Perhaps on the Home Leg HM may feel a bit more ‘ attack ‘ minded….maybe he then will make some strategic changes and start with some players we all seem to be collectively punting here….
13 Sep 2012, 15:07 pm
@Heavens Game-454:
Here’s one for you .
Apparently The Donkey’s Egg is Black Panther
13 Sep 2012, 15:08 pm
@Heavens Game-454: Ja, Gaddafi represents some workers who don’t belong to a union. They want R16 000 a month and they don’t want to drink the mine’s awful mageu.
Can’t wait to read what the next bunch of angry rock drillers are going to come up with. R20 000 and DSTV?
13 Sep 2012, 15:08 pm
@Transformation-452:
Sorry mate I meant Daniel Carter; is he injured?
13 Sep 2012, 15:09 pm
@Jeraldjay-458: He’s trying very hard to reconstruct himself as an oval ball “expert”…
Its just that the farken close to genuine retarded prose stands out like a “humble” All Black supporter…
13 Sep 2012, 15:10 pm
13 Sep 2012, 15:10 pm
Tranny something like that but I doubt Piri will let the team down on Saturday, 9 is looking superb for us going forward.
13 Sep 2012, 15:12 pm
Keegan Daniel Daniel Carter
One could so easily get confused
13 Sep 2012, 15:12 pm
@Dawn-465: Panty the Richmond Rugby Guru?
The Panty who “knows” a lawyer who had a colleague who represented Innocent Kevvy at a disciplinary…?
Lol.
Donkeys farken Egg rightly so.
13 Sep 2012, 15:13 pm
@katman-466: best thing they can do is make them all shareholders.
the last bunch left standing will be down to lowering themselves down mineshafts using donkeys for a hoist.
13 Sep 2012, 15:13 pm
@NZINCHINA-470:
And with the Panga haka, your Saturday just got even better
13 Sep 2012, 15:15 pm
@katman-466: Yup, spinning right out of control now…
But Gaddafi Ndoda is a Classic…
If Transie had any sense he would change one of his multinics to that yesterday.
13 Sep 2012, 15:17 pm
@Sheriff-467: just say Kara man!
yeah, his calf is twitchy so they’re taking no chances…
13 Sep 2012, 15:17 pm
Toe ek op laerskool was het ons gepraat van ‘ jy wil iemand hê’ as jy van iemand hou
So sal jy dan byvoorbeeld altyd daai meisiekind jaag of net in die algemeen seker maak jy kry die betrokke persoon se aandag trek, maak nie saak hoe nie
Derhalwe kan ek net tot die gevolgtrekking kom dat Dawn vir my wil hê, maar sy kan nie want ek is al reeds gevat
13 Sep 2012, 15:19 pm
@Transformation-476:
I forget bloggers have taken to the abbrev version
I wonder if this is really the case; I think is just to say that they can beat them without Kara; and they will – Cruden will speed up the game considerably and will be a constant threat at 1st 5
13 Sep 2012, 15:19 pm
@NZINCHINA-470:
China do you think we’ll get the Kapo o Pango.
We really worked hard for it. We will be truly grateful……
Fark them….
13 Sep 2012, 15:22 pm
Some people are confusing the criticism against Meyer’s game plan vs the results of the game. Even if the Springboks win this game, so what? That in itself doesn’t mean Meyer’s game plan is good for the boks in the long term. The criticism goes far beyond that…
Most of us know Morne shouldn’t be in the starting line-up because his performance has really gone down the drain. But why is he being kept? Because his style of play fits into the “gameplan.” And Morne is milking this, hence his assertion in the interview that this approach won us the world cup.
Our backline players are largely being ignored in the offensive play (apart from the up and unders). You would think that our coach would make some kind of plan to ensure our backline has more opportunities to score tries. But no… we need to stick rigidly to our kicking game. The result? Our backline players are virtually invisible during attack mode, which results in them being dropped as they look bad.
We have a talent such as Lambie warming the bench, who is way more talented than Kirchner. But why is he being ignored? Because he doesn’t fit into the “game-plan.”
This focus on the “game-plan” has distracted us from the real issue, which is how our coach has no clue how to best make use of the talent we have in this country. That is why players who should be dropped are kept and those who should be in are not. Our coach is too focussed on the “game-plan” and how these players fit into it without looking at what the real strengths of this team are. If he did, he would realise for example that Morne is simply too one-dimensional and that there are other guys out there who can do what he does and even more!
This approach that he is employing is simply killing our talent.
13 Sep 2012, 15:23 pm
appears Andries Strauss from Cheetahs signing for Kings as well….
Yesterday Sykes , today A Strauss….
Okes are on a roll
13 Sep 2012, 15:24 pm
Transformation – here is the direct translation of post 477:
When I was at primary school we used to talk about ‘ you want somebody’ if you like someone
Accordingly you would for instance always chase a certain girl or just make sure in general that you get the relevant person’s attention, in whichever way you deem fit
Therefore I can only conclude that Dawn wants me but she cannot as I am already taken
13 Sep 2012, 15:25 pm
@NZINCHINA-470: “9 is looking superb for us going forward”, with Piri Weepu its two for the price of one…
(Where’s his opposition Jimmy Cowan… Swallowed?)
13 Sep 2012, 15:25 pm
@lesiba-480: butch was at 10 when we won WC
A real 10….
13 Sep 2012, 15:27 pm
@grant10-481: All the Kings’ carthorses and all the Kings’ journeymen…
13 Sep 2012, 15:27 pm
Jerald 5 straight losses to Aus and a draw against the Argies, are currently worthy of it?
13 Sep 2012, 15:29 pm
@Jeraldjay-479:
Panga
13 Sep 2012, 15:30 pm
@fitz1ella-382:
Some perspective is required when looking at the score sheet of PdV’s Boks against the Top 5 Nations in last 24 months of his tenure (Win: Loss)
ABs – 1:4
Aus – 1:5
Poms – 1:0
Ireland – 1:1
France – 0:1
That makes it 4/11 or a whopping 36% Winning rate!
Something to look to for inspiration in dire times
:-d
13 Sep 2012, 15:33 pm
Fark the Kapo a Pongo…
Farken Kiwi’s and their “challenge” before a rugby match… a “challenge” where the opposition team cannot respond in the way they see fit… respectful or not….
Talk about arrogance.
French gave the best response possible in the RWC final… A rousing advance to meet this “challenge”… and they get FINED for doing it…
Not just arrogant but cowardly too.
Boks need to respond with a bit of Battle of Bloedrivier… then we see who chops who or who challenges farken what…
13 Sep 2012, 15:33 pm
HG Piri will be just fine on Saturday, is it just me or does Ruan lack a bit of oomph?
13 Sep 2012, 15:34 pm
If WPTID was here I would have asked him about the Latin phrase for the phenomenon of when someone’s silence /lack of response is regarded as confirmation of the said allegation.
But I will wait patiently for him to show up again one day to ask the necessary question
13 Sep 2012, 15:34 pm
@NZINCHINA-486: see there you go again being an arrogant little kiwi.
you cant claim aussie success as yours ya doos.
last time we played your lot, the boks won. whats the win/loss ratio over the last 4 years?
wake up noodleboy
13 Sep 2012, 15:35 pm
@NZINCHINA-490:
How many people are they expecting at the game?
17?
13 Sep 2012, 15:36 pm
AB’s now on their legislated, Rigged World Cup pedestal… By Goodness if I don’t trust or like Heyneke Meyer for the fckups he has made, but by God I hope that the Boks hand out a snotklap straight from the underdog to the arrogant sunshiny farkers from Shakey Isle.
13 Sep 2012, 15:37 pm
After Kitch Christie who had a perfect winning record, Peter de Villiers the kullid coach from Paarl in the Western Cape has been the most impressive coach of the post isolation era of SA Rugby
There can be no doubt about it.
13 Sep 2012, 15:37 pm
@Heavens Game-489: lol, the haka is a laod of bs imo.
grown men practicing synchronised dancing and trying to look mean whilst jumping around like m o nk eys just doesnt do it for me.
and the fact that the ponces think no one can advance on them makes it even more of an ad break to me.
13 Sep 2012, 15:38 pm
@NZINCHINA-486:
So the AB’s set the bar and teams should be at your mercy.
Only teams that are worthy will be credited with the Capo O Pango.
That type of arrogance will eventually be your downfall.
13 Sep 2012, 15:39 pm
Who cares if they dance the Pogostick or the Tamatiestraat? Is this a rugby game or New Zullund’s got tellunt?
Do the bloody hokey cokey, then wake us up, that’s what it’s all about.
13 Sep 2012, 15:39 pm
@Transformation-461: I say again, there is a Tim Burton movie in this sh y te. You couldn’t hallucinate about this kak if you were chasing the dragon, snorting coke and timmering with Tik…..all at the same time.
Someone mentioned earlier that P Divvy must be enjoying what is happening here big time. In fact, I am astonished that NO journalist has asked him for a comment or two just yet. I have huge respect for Divvy (yes, I expect a few jeers now….) and it seems those of us who in fact appreciated some of Divvy’s ideas and thinking are finally having some sort of last laugh
I hope Divvy is enjoying this….although him being such a decent fellow (and he really is) I doubt he is getting pleasure out of anothers suffering…even though the one suffering got much pleasure out of Divvy’s pain…
Note: to so called journos on KEO: would one of youfucklers please contact P Divvy for his thoughts on the Boks….PLEASE.
13 Sep 2012, 15:40 pm
@Sheriff-495: hmmmm….no i cant agree.
mallet holds that title.
then jakey (by virtue of his wc win)
then pdv foreshore. because carel, straueli and harry were awful.
will heyneke be in the first group or the second?
what worries me is that it took him two bites of the apple at the bulls to get it right (they fired him once!)
time will tell.
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