Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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13 Sep 2012, 15:40 pm
@rangerman-496:
The Kapo a Ad Break… How farken appropriate… lol
13 Sep 2012, 15:41 pm
…The Heineken Cup appears to be nearing its end after BT Vision boss Marc Watson revealed that a new competition is in the pipeline.
Following on from the groundbreaking £152m deal with Premiership Rugby that includes live broadcast rights for European games played by English clubs for three years from 2014, further doubt has been cast over a tournament that has already been rocked by news that English and French sides are threatening to walk away.
The clubs are unhappy with RaboDirect PRO12 outfits’ recent glory and believe it’s partly a result of a qualification system which allows them to rest their players during their league term. And chief executive Watson has now added to the speculation that the Cup is nearing a crossroads.
“We are looking to set up, or at least help set up, a dazzling new European tournament with a fantastic new format, with, we hope, all the best clubs,” he told sportspromedia.com.
“And we’ve secured, from the English Premiership, the rights to that for the UK.
“That tournament will be the successor to the Heineken Cup, which is a very successful tournament.
“The Heineken Cup, under its current contract, has another season to run, and that will be the end of it, and we are looking to set up a brand new tournament from then.
“We saw in rugby an opportunity to own a sport exclusively, certainly at club level, and the rights that we’ve bought give us an opportunity to do that.
“We are hosting the Rugby World Cup in 2015 in the UK. It’s a great opportunity in the two years running up to that, we think, to grow the sport.
“It’s a sport that has got a long way to go. We were attracted by the idea of growing with it, and helping it to grow in the UK
13 Sep 2012, 15:41 pm
It was a joke Ranger but you keep spouting the win loss ratio over the last 4 years if it makes you feel better you have cling to something I suppose you dont have much choice.
13 Sep 2012, 15:42 pm
@Jeraldjay-497: ag the oke is as arrogant as they come.
poops too. thats why he gets so worked up when he cant handle a comment
to be fair, they have been an awesome team, best of the pro era, but a lot of kiwis seem to think it is their birthright when we all know it is actually ours
13 Sep 2012, 15:43 pm
My guess is we’ll select the old version save the special one away for the Argies I could be wrong though.
13 Sep 2012, 15:44 pm
Its been pretty obvious Donkey’s Egg was BP all along
real rugby intelligence where it emanates from best
can’t say the same for most the saffa confused excuses for rugby followers..
@Hondo-488: you want I should go get Whites stats vs top 5 .. it reads worse than that
Ab’s overall – 3 : 7 – PdV returned 5 : 6 overall
France – 1 : 4 overall
Ireland away 0 : 2
Poms away 1 : 2
and this thicker than fck idiot actually fluked a WC with an Australian reading the script for him against No. 6 and No. 7 IRB rank team
The reason PdV couldn’t change the status quo was because JW’s arsecreep disciples couldn’t get OUT of the JW RUT that this moron Meyer has patently persuaded and persisted with
13 Sep 2012, 15:45 pm
no it was Gerty and co’s
13 Sep 2012, 15:45 pm
@NZINCHINA-503: ah, a joke you say?
the kiwi sense of humour, very refined, very dry.
well done, keep em coming you have us all rolling in the aisles.
take the kapo and the hakamata hokey pokey kamate karate chop and shove it, real men dont dance, even less practice synchronised dance (only a joke, funny hey?)
13 Sep 2012, 15:46 pm
@lesiba-480:
That is the real concern isnt it?! We have more flair than we ever had, from 10 to 15. And can pick a pack that can set a platform for the backs to be lethal.
The talent coming through now should be the teams biggest strength. The ‘traditional’ SA strength doesnt really apply anymore.
Everyone keeps picking teams that could be great, but its up to the coach to realize the potential and work out an approach that will highlight the current strength of the player pool.
At this point HM seems to be blind to this fact and is even on record saying we dont compare to the nz and aus players regarding skill and playing the situation. I beg to effing differ.
So will everyone keep on cringing while the youth is wasted with an out dated and one dimensional approach? Or will HM eventually realize his mistake and evolve the team? He had this insight before when he appointed a brilliant backline coach (Todd Louden) to give the Bulls an attacking edge! A while back when he was director of rugby at the Bulls he mentioned that the Bull will evolve their play and implement better attacking play to replicate the trends to stay competitive. Where is that HM everyone was hoping for???
Over coaching and obsession with structures could do a lot of damage to young players being exposed to the new bok setup. And as you rightfully mentioned its evident that players who dont fit the mould will be overlooked or never really be given the opportunity to reach their full potencial.
13 Sep 2012, 15:46 pm
Ranger yes we will beat you on Saturday.
13 Sep 2012, 15:47 pm
@fitz1ella-506: No, if Donkey’s Egg was Black Pants there would have been more than a few Boy George Karma, Karma odes by now…
13 Sep 2012, 15:47 pm
@NZINCHINA-510: who is we and what position do you play?
i will be on the couch, hope the nasty boere dont break you like an egg flied noodle
13 Sep 2012, 15:48 pm
@Sheriff-491:
Qui tacet, consentit.
13 Sep 2012, 15:49 pm
@katman-457: you got any idea what the word ‘eensaam’ stands for
come try your luck laddie I teach you eensaam where it resonates in between your ears till the wagon wheels fall off your last century ossewa that you tied you frilly little lightweight legendary status to.
13 Sep 2012, 15:49 pm
@rangerman-500:
I see you conveniently list 2 souties there at the top of your pile
We need to deduct from Mallet: the removal of Teichman, the appt of Joost and the annihilation of Gaffie du Toit and Dave von Hoesslin.
We need to deduct from White: the lucky draw in the RWC 2007; the obsession with structure, post RWC comments
We need to add for PdV: Bryce Lawrence cheating him like only Kiwis can
So there. PdV the clear No 2
13 Sep 2012, 15:49 pm
@NZINCHINA-510: anyway, i am out you big girl
work on that humour a bit ok?
cheers.
13 Sep 2012, 15:50 pm
Ranger the win loss ratio will widen to 13 and you’ll keep talking about your birth right.
13 Sep 2012, 15:50 pm
@WP-Forever-513:
Or:
Qui tacet consentire videtur, ubi loqui debuit ac potuit.
13 Sep 2012, 15:50 pm
@Sheriff-515:
creative accounting at its finest.
you wek for guvverment?
out now sheriff, tjorts.
13 Sep 2012, 15:51 pm
@WP-Forever-513:
Lovely stuff, thank you kindly.
13 Sep 2012, 15:52 pm
@rangerman-519:
13 Sep 2012, 15:52 pm
@Jeez-509: I don’t want this moron to get ANYWHERE NEAR to the exciting prospects that are coming through the rugby ranks here..
I rather have AB’s DESTROY this moron before he can dislocate and destabilize the rest of the young rugby enthusiasm that is coming through..
Hopefully AB’s do whats necessary and KILL this Goon OFF NOW .. before it gets any worse than it already has…
13 Sep 2012, 15:52 pm
@fitz1ella-514: Dis die ding van eensame ou mense: hulle sal dit nooit erken nie. Sê vir die wêreld hulle is piekfyn, maar binne kwyn hulle.
Ek sal vir jou sop bring, ou Skoppie. En ‘n lekker leesboek. Alles gaan okay wees.
13 Sep 2012, 15:53 pm
@wnbb-440: Are you a Kiwi.Ah.Explains it.
13 Sep 2012, 15:53 pm
@katman-523:
50 Shades of Grey?
13 Sep 2012, 15:54 pm
@grant10-502: BT got money to burn as well… They will set it up too…
If there ever was a time for SARU to put out feelers for an alternative to the ANZAC rigged fckup that has been Super Rugby it is now.
If not to join up at the end of it all but to strengthen their farken so far submissive negotiating stance with the kissing cousins then so be it…
But fark me it could make sense… Let Kiwis and Aussies play Super Rugby games with the **** and PI’s and Saffas hit the same time zone up North… Gives the Northern teams and their fans a sunny respite with any return games down south too…
13 Sep 2012, 15:54 pm
@ryecatcher-524: I often forget the
question mark.Doesn,t mean its rhetorical.
13 Sep 2012, 15:55 pm
I have this step thingie attached to my boot
It’s part of a work challenge
I must walk 8000 steps a day
WTF
13 Sep 2012, 15:55 pm
@grant10-502:
Could the Lions have a finger in this pie?
13 Sep 2012, 15:56 pm
@Dawn-528:
Have you switched over to Johnny Walker now?
13 Sep 2012, 15:56 pm
@rangerman-512:
13 Sep 2012, 15:56 pm
Talking of accounting, here is what the President of Republic of South Africa said on the topic:
‘He said that people with suitable qualifications should be employed in local government.
“For example, the position of the chief financial officer. You must not come with somebody who cannot count money,” he said.
Zuma said that after the auditor-general’s report on municipalities, they had been asking whether the money in municipalities had disappeared or if the money was there and people could not count it.
The president said that some people blamed the government because they employed their illiterate friends “who cannot count”.
13 Sep 2012, 15:57 pm
@WP-Forever-530:
Keep walking!!!!!!
13 Sep 2012, 15:58 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-499: this bit right here is why ryan vrede will always be a sh*thead to me…i mean WTF is a “conservative mindset” on a rugby player?
“What De Villiers fails to grasp is that his talented group of players find a sense of security in structure. It plays to their conservative mindset and takes the pressure off them to make their own decisions thereby lessening their fear of failure. Springbok rugby is crying out for a pragmatic coach who acknowledges the strengths of his squad and seeks to maximise those.”
are we to surmise that morne steyn is afraid of making mistakes (failure) that he’d rather not attack the line or make decision and rather skop alles?
13 Sep 2012, 15:58 pm
@katman-523: you know FUCKALL about eensaamheid.. just like you know FUCKALL about anything and EVERYTHING else in life.. what you need is for Somebody kind and generous enough to teach you EVERYTHING about what life is actually about…
13 Sep 2012, 15:59 pm
@Dawn-528: Go well… Go Shell.
13 Sep 2012, 15:59 pm
@fitz1ella-522:
Unfortunately history teaches us that this wont happen. Its been a while since a coach has been sacked just after a year or two. Both JW and PDV had 4 years!
So the only hope bok fans have is for HM to see the light! I really dont know how that will happen. Perhaps a 50% win ratio after 1 year as coach?
13 Sep 2012, 16:00 pm
@Heavens Game-526:
the lions looking north now that they’re out of the kak super comp could be good fortune. if there’s a saying for a disasterous event turning out to have unintended positibve consequences which outweighs the disaster then this would be a perfect time to use it.
which should push these possible opportunities.
13 Sep 2012, 16:00 pm
@Jeez-537:
O and both PDivvy and White had terrible lows
13 Sep 2012, 16:01 pm
Who can possibly walk 8000 steps
13 Sep 2012, 16:03 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-538:
which is to say lions and saru should push these possible opportunities.
13 Sep 2012, 16:03 pm
@Jeez-539:
I reckon PdV’s lows were worked on from within the camp:
The two agents were, but not limited to: VM & FdP
13 Sep 2012, 16:04 pm
@fitz1ella-535: That’s awesome. And since it’s all you say, give or take a handful of arse-creeps and high-falutins, you should have it printed onto business cards and hand them out to random strangers. Or your friends, who are probably the exact same people.
13 Sep 2012, 16:05 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-538: Yeah. 100%. The law of unintended consequences…
Out of the frying pan and into a feast…
Lions could very well turn out to be a decent little beach head up north, if Kevin De Klerk brings even half of his fanciful ideas to fruition.
13 Sep 2012, 16:06 pm
@Heavens Game-526:
the sooner we get away from these filthy kiwis the better it woulb be for our rugby imo. we could play them according to an irregular test schedule like the old days.
13 Sep 2012, 16:06 pm
@Heavens Game-526: exactly ….hope Lions are doing the groundwork for us already…
silver lining there….opportunity in adversity.
13 Sep 2012, 16:06 pm
@Dawn-540:
And I would walk 8000 steps
And I would walk 8000 more…
13 Sep 2012, 16:08 pm
@Jeez-537: Carel Du Plessis put together the most exciting proactive Bok team in decades and Mallet and Solomons benefited from his vision but Saru sacked Du Plessis JUST as the vision fell into place..
This goon is going in EXACTLY the opposite direction he is ENTRENCHING his backward thinking till hell breaks its boundaries and engulfs his idiocy and chucks it straight in his face..
i doubt this idiot ever learns the lesson of self analysis and introspection.. White was faced with a disaster of a WC campaign if he could NOT read the signs and which led him to EMPLOY a consultant who had far more visionary skills and rugby cred intelligence.. I doubt Meyer has the capacity nor the humility to step off the track from his impending train wreck ..
If he WAKES UP.. it will only be as a result of a HUGE implosion where his predetermined philosophy gets SMACKED to hell in order for his screwed up reality to get an almighty realigned realization
13 Sep 2012, 16:08 pm
Have we ever thought of a backline consisting of
15-lambie
14-basson
13-mapoe
12-f steyn
11-habana
10-goosen
9-hougaard
20-pienaar
21-taute
22-de jong ?
I believe they will deliver the goods?
13 Sep 2012, 16:08 pm
@Heavens Game-544:
fark
if kdk pulled that off i would respect him to my dying day. that woudl be a monumental turnaround of their fortunes as it stands and might be the catalyst for them to turn around their rugby success.
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