Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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13 Sep 2012, 16:09 pm
Magtag I’m only on 1791 and it’s 16h00 already
13 Sep 2012, 16:11 pm
Sanzar may rue not allowing 6 team from SA
I sense a Tsunami backlash…
13 Sep 2012, 16:11 pm
@poppa69-72:
Eligible players unavailable who are probably better than the current 22:
15. Jaco Taute*
14. JP Pieterson*
13. Jaque Fourie**
12.
11.
10.
9. Fourie du Preez**
8. Pierre Spies*, Ryan Kankowski**
7. Joan Smith*
6. Skalk Burger*, Heinrich Brossouw*
5.
4. Eben Etzebeth***, Bakkies Botha**, Gerhard Mostert**
3. Coenie Oostheisen*
2. Bismark Du Plesis*, Chilliboy Ralepele*, Skalk Brits**
1. Guthro Steenkamp**
* Injury
** Playing abroad, and may return
*** Suspension
Considering the following players are playing under an injury clowd:
10. Johan Goosen* (just returned)
5. Andries Bekker
3. Jannie Do Plesis, Pat Celliers
It is no surprise the Boks are struggling. Australia are also having their problems with injuries and the ABs have been very lucky on that front. For the ABs I can only really think of:
12. SBW**
10. Dan Cater*
I have probably forgotten some players from both sides, so please excuse me.
I know the ABs are easily the best team at the moment, but I don’t think the standard of world rugby is very high compared to other years. So I think next year, when Aus and SA have some of their players back for selection, it will be a far more competitive competition.
13 Sep 2012, 16:12 pm
Here we go Sa cant win a test and now the old lets look elsewhere talk surfaces you could play scotland home and away each season that would be good for your rugby
13 Sep 2012, 16:14 pm
@grant10-552:
awesome potential in this. i hope there’s enough doos execs with sense at saru to help the lions pursue opportunities here.
13 Sep 2012, 16:14 pm
Blik another dream team.
13 Sep 2012, 16:14 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-550: Keep 4N but get involved with something new at franchise level…
French + English + SA Teams
Toulouse, Leicester Tigers, Sharks, Bulls, Biarritz, Saracens, Stormers… etc.
Farken looks good to me…
More moolah potential, even if SARU ends up submissively sucking the hindtit here too…
13 Sep 2012, 16:14 pm
@katman-543: how many times do I have to tell you you got fckall clue for the reality of your bright spark idiocy to ACTUALLY let it sink IN..?
What you keep coming back for more for.. don’t you GET IT IDIOT.. You ain’t a quarter of the bright spark you actually think you are.. not even a minute IOTA of the clever little dicky twit you think you might be.
13 Sep 2012, 16:14 pm
@xtremebull-549: That’s a good backline, although I’m not the biggest Basson fan. Still, I think that would work.
13 Sep 2012, 16:14 pm
@blik-553:
Verskonings verskonings
Excuses excuses
The coach must construct a plan that can take the team forward; the plan has been formulated years ago and cannot work anymore
By going this route, he is ignoring the obvious and persisting stubbornly – best that the departure is accelerated
13 Sep 2012, 16:16 pm
@fitz1ella-558: Don’t say that. I’m starting to get the impression you’re going to cancel our rugby date. Please let me know, because I’m making plans, ek sê.
13 Sep 2012, 16:18 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-444: Understand your torment
.but not in my genetic makeup to hope Ab,S BEAT us.
Believe the team will soon include Brussouw,Lions loosehead,Jordaan,
Coetzee/Taute/Lambie ,Marcel/Keegan.
13 Sep 2012, 16:18 pm
@xtremebull-549: you got it mostly right
but 99% of the boffins here want PIENAAR at 9
and Hougaard in never never land
Better still would be W. Le Roux or A. Coetsee at 15 and back up 10
13 Sep 2012, 16:18 pm
@katman-523: Ek dink dis Grant10 as hy in n SLEGTE bui is
13 Sep 2012, 16:18 pm
@NZINCHINA-556: I am trying to make the point that HM is probably getting a fair amount of undue criticism. Given the circumstances, no one can expect the Boks to do well. The ABs do tend to be ‘lucky’ when it comes to injuries, maybe the players are better managed, and also play for space as opposed to always taking contact? But generally NZ do not seem to suffer injurys as much as Aus or SA. I am not saying it is an excuse, because it is part of the game, but I do think HM should be given a bit of leeway.
13 Sep 2012, 16:19 pm
@Jeez-537:
That is why I’m thinking long-term and am hoping our weaknesses are hugely exposed this coming Saturday and that we lose badly so that he has no place to hide. It’s the only way that Heyneke can get a wake-up call. Hoping he gets fired is a dream which I don’t think will come true any time soon.
At the moment, he seems like an ostrich which is hellbent on proving everyone else wrong with his “gameplan”, at the expense of our talented players. This is a really depressing place we find ourselves in, never thought I’d actually hope our team loses just so that sanity prevails! But it’s the only way this thick-headed ostrich’s head can be forced open. for new creative ideas.
13 Sep 2012, 16:22 pm
@katman-561: pissoff little pisswilly moron when you are adult enough to be graced with my company and show the necessary humility required to earn the right to sit at my table that when you MAY request an audience.. till then keep schmoozing it up with you pisswilly little goon arsewipe groupies who think you pisswilly little humorless innuendo’s are so emphatically funny…
also do me the favor of getting off the track of latching onto EVERYTHING I have to say… you making a huge statement of showing how desperate you are for some reality awakening by keep on clamoring for MORE attention from every post I post on here.
13 Sep 2012, 16:23 pm
@NZINCHINA-554: Let your Crusaders and your Reds play against the Kawasaki Ninjas and the Panasonic shiny Knights, while Sharks play Tolouse and Bulls play Leicester in the same time zone, no jet lag and with travel trips half as long… And SA wont have to subsidise their “partners” here either…
And Saffas can have their Currie Cup proper back thank you very much…
You kissing cuzzies can have a love affair with the Japsprats… Hell, you’ll even be able to watch Money Bill on hometurf again…
Win Win all Round.
13 Sep 2012, 16:24 pm
@Heavens Game-557:
i would scrap the 4n too. ratherrevert to tests home or sometimes away of an irregular nature with the anzacs in the same way we organise our eoyt.
this would even bring more excitement back in the game if we get to see the ozzies or ab’s on a ‘who knows when basis’. maybe this year, maybe next. this format is plainly stale, lacking in excitement and dwindling in crowd attendance.
of course the elephant in the room is how to decisively deal with the kiwis filthy approach to the game.
13 Sep 2012, 16:24 pm
or gamesmanship as they woulld say
13 Sep 2012, 16:24 pm
@ryecatcher-562: Nah, don’t want the AB’s to win…just don’t want the Boks to win with Morne on the field, doing something great
Cos then we toast….
13 Sep 2012, 16:25 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-571: WHERE THE HELL IS THE GUY WHO WAS SAYING THESE THINGS in this interview?
will the REAL heyneke meyer please stand up?
DIRECTOR of rugby Heyneke Meyer told Business Day yesterday he planned to turn the Blue Bulls back into a dominant franchise which plays a fluid, high-intensity running game.
From next year the Bulls will be without some of the trustees that have served them with aplomb — Fourie du Preez, Bakkies Botha, Danie Rossouw — and who have delivered trophies that some teams still dream of winning.
Meyer’s recruits thus far, Johan Sadie, JJ Engelbrecht and most recently Lionel Cronje, are fleet- footed backline players, a clear indication of the direction the team would be taking.
“I brought Pine (Pienaar) in who was a backline coach because I want to improve the way we’re playing. If you look at the guys we’ve recruited, they are very exciting backs.
“You always have a vision of how you want to play and then get players around that.
“We will always have a tough forward pack but we’ve looked at how the game has evolved,” Meyer said.
“If you stay the same you’ll never get ahead.”
The Bulls are in the same position they were when he started as coach in 2000, said Meyer, in that an overhaul is needed to reposition the team to the top.
Meyer listed five focal points he felt would give the union the edge over its rivals:
1. having the best coaching staff at all age group levels,
2. recruiting the best young talent,
3. implementing a winning culture,
4. ensuring an environment where players can grow to their full potential and changing the way the Bulls played.
“It’s not finalised yet but we are looking to get Victor Matfield in to help us with the lineouts.
“We are looking hard at the way we are going to play. We are busy with a lot of camps that (are set up) to have the whole union playing the same way.”
However the changes will not be without their casualties.
“The hard decisions we had to make (were) which players we want to keep and which we will let go,” Meyer said.
13 Sep 2012, 16:26 pm
I just hope the squad is genuinely happy and buying in….
Because if HM faces a palace revolution from what will probably be the non Bull players, then we really farked…
Problem is JDV ais cappie and Stormers also bought into this kak skop en jag nonsense…..
Maybe would have been better to have had a Sharks cappie….who might have challenged the game plan….
13 Sep 2012, 16:27 pm
@blik-553: Kahui, Kaino, Thorn
13 Sep 2012, 16:27 pm
time out … its getting BORING fencing with idiotic little lighties that still got PLENTY yet to learn…
Come AB’s stick it to Meyer .. Drill his oudoos goddamn last century fckup backward retardation to hell and back…
Get this goddamn nightmare OVER with.. I have had quite ENOUGH of the f’ng neanderthal idiocy from out of the dark ages of SA rugby lunatic asylums
Hammer this Meyer moron into submission.. kill him OFF before it gets ANY WORSE..!!
13 Sep 2012, 16:28 pm
@Heavens Game-568:
ja, not to mention that it would be even more lucrative for sa rugby if we went north. combine the supersort broadcating revenue + sponsorships with whatever deal we make with the british and it would add up to a heap of money.
would be interesting to see how anzacs would compensate for the loss of supersort revenue into newscorp/sanzar deal.
13 Sep 2012, 16:28 pm
@rangerman-462: Katman would never be his Wyfie
13 Sep 2012, 16:28 pm
@fitz1ella-567: Your table? Last I heard the manager at the Victorian Times had to ask you 8 times to move away from the door and well down the pavement. Have you patched things up with him again?
13 Sep 2012, 16:32 pm
@ fitziella 563 and katman 559
I believe goosen/hougaard will go long way…
In saying that I mean that they will take sa rugby to a whole new level regarding game-breaking ability, sharpness, flair and individual brilliance…
As for basson, I believe he will take over from habana in 2 years time and he need to start in a balanced team so that we can know what he realy offer- whe do know that jp is the incumbent @14
13 Sep 2012, 16:32 pm
HM must just lose the fear man…..
13 Sep 2012, 16:34 pm
“I’m a big believer in a guy sticking to his strengths, and I think Morne is a great player in his own right. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, so I don’t think that he needs to change the way he plays. It’s more about the outside backs who must use their opportunities,” Meyer said.
13 Sep 2012, 16:35 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-569: You do realise that we all play more games vs European teams every year already? 6 games vs SH and 7 vs NH. Are you saying you want to freshen things up by playing the same teams them even more often?
13 Sep 2012, 16:36 pm
@grant10-573: that was HM coup, making JdV the Cappie forced him to “buy into” the kool-aid and have to endorse the coach publicly…imagine FdP facing all this barrage of media attention, he’d die
13 Sep 2012, 16:38 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-576: Yeah, I alluded to this earlier with the “moolah potential”… You have now made it more explicit… And those opportunities you highlight must be very tempting… Not only for SARU but also for the English and French clubs…
SA a big market for rugby and I reckon supporters would be very keen for something new and a little more equitable.
Pools of 4, home and away (8 games), followed by one big farken knockout (1, 2 or 3 games more depending on how far a team progresses) leaves nearly a good month of rugby out in the SA schedule, which can then allow an expanded Currie Cup.
Luvverly.
Stay involved in the 4N though… Absence will make the heart grow fonder… However a structurally biased Super Rugby fckup? – Outtasight outtamind for farken damned sure.
13 Sep 2012, 16:38 pm
@Transformation-572:
Exactly where the hell is that guy!???
“If you stay the same you’ll never get ahead.” ??????
Out of his own mouth. Thats the coach SA wants!
13 Sep 2012, 16:38 pm
@gonzo-574: I don’t think Kaino or Thorn will be back for the ABs, but Kaui is a good player who has been unlucky with injury most of his carrer.
13 Sep 2012, 16:43 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-569:
If you want to be the best, you’ve got to play against the best
13 Sep 2012, 16:44 pm
@fitz1ella-506:
You disappointed me
The first two years of PdV he had JW’s Boks team more or less intact, JW had to rebuild from scratches.
2009 was a complete bought out of the Test referees by SARU and its backers, difficult to replicate it, Steve Walsh for sure but the rest are under the microscope now
13 Sep 2012, 16:48 pm
@grant10-573: Yup, told you fools long ago that Keegan would have been a good option as Cappie… and he would have been there on merit only… Not the stopgap scapegoat to be that JdV will end up being if or when the Boks go titsup.
But until after the final whistle on Sat, I don’t care what the fark has happened or is happening – whatever palace revolution might be taking place, I am Bokbefok and I hope the Green and Gold knocks those arrogant sheepshaggers straight off their World Champ pedestal….
Then I will resume whining on Sunday onwards after the babbelas has worn off.
Head says no chance… But heart says Bokke… The problem with the head is that a nagging little voice reckons that it isn’t cut and dried…
Imagine Beast, Alberts, Frik, Jannie, Flo, Vermeulen facing up to the Haka – farken nostrils flaring… Eyes bulging… Those guys gonna be fired up.
13 Sep 2012, 16:48 pm
Nah Boks must stay in SH / that’s what we are and it’s still the best rugby on the planet just.
Nothing bigger than Boks vs ABs.
Klap hulle.
13 Sep 2012, 16:49 pm
@Transformation-572: If you find that man, please let Fitzella know, as I reckon Fitzella has some as yet unstarted, but already unfinished business with the REAL Heyneke Meyer
13 Sep 2012, 16:55 pm
Ooh ****** gaats die poppa gaan dans !
13 Sep 2012, 16:56 pm
out… aus… uit
13 Sep 2012, 16:56 pm
@cab-590: Agree Cabbie.
Really don’t think it is worth it going north. Travel will be shorter, but the rugby will never be as good as what we see in the sh.
13 Sep 2012, 16:56 pm
@cab-592:
13 Sep 2012, 16:58 pm
@blik-586: Oh sorry I thought we were making theoretical dream teams of unavailable players
Yeah, we’ve been reasonably lucky with injuries in the forwards but it still feels like we’re in a transition period with some some old boys that may or may not stick around, some youngsters being blooded, and really only Read hitting his straps and Franks/Whitelock perhaps a little out of form. Curse of a post-world cup year I guess
13 Sep 2012, 17:00 pm
@Heavens Game-568: Has to happen.
13 Sep 2012, 17:01 pm
@Transformation-583: Jean’s mouth is saying something, but his eyes are telling another story entirely. He is honestly just there as a bouncer, to protect Meyer from the unwelcome and uncouth guests….
13 Sep 2012, 18:33 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-598: Jean should subscribe to tackling lessons. His misses rate amongst the biggest game changers of 2012 and he may well add more to his impressive collection of shame on Saturday.
13 Sep 2012, 19:15 pm
@gonzo-582:
no, i’m saying we (we being sa) should drop games if needs be and determine it in a more irregular fashion. maybe we play oz, ire, wales, arg, fra and samoa twice each this year and nz, eng, fij, scot, tonga and italy twice each the next year….
we could even match it to play a nation every three years this way it gains even more significance and interest similar to the way the lions tours work.
add to this a home OR away element for further intrigue. and of course we would factor in the lions tour every 12 and the wc every four. and yet more there is the prospect of organisng good old three match test series’.
and thats just test rugby.
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