Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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14 Sep 2012, 07:45 am
@Fern-638: didnt you pretend your had died fernly? how is your girlfriend, have you infested her yet with your dead awful STD’s? Im surprised you havent drowned down at the Dam, god knows youre thick enough to fall in trying to save your shadow..
14 Sep 2012, 07:52 am
Strange Fern, you cried because I posted murder stats a long, long time ago, specifically about a friend of yours, yet you continually mention my mum and find it hilarious? Ive never mocked your mates death, yet you seem to think what you do is somewhat acceptable..
i see even bakkies finds it hilarious..
what to expect though
life is soooooo cheap in SA, people get killed just trying to ensure they get a fair wage, those who are fortunate enough not to be starving to death or confined to townships where even the most basic of necessities is missing..
14 Sep 2012, 07:54 am
Put your snout away Fernley.
Try and make sure the bricks are in a straight line today.
14 Sep 2012, 07:58 am
i dont owe you any explanations pops, but just to be clear i was not laughing about it. i was responding to his accusation that i was the local version of a doos like you by pointing out to him what he had just said there?
there is line, and i feel that goes over it.
14 Sep 2012, 08:01 am
now phukkoff
14 Sep 2012, 08:08 am
phukk i really do not want to be involved in rugby with anzacs anymore. its bullshitt.
am i the only doos here on this? does anyone actually enjoy this joke for fair competition?
what a farken joke.
i really, really would like to see us go elsewhere or scrap the existing format and come up with an alternative. i really farkin hope something come out of the english scrapping heineken cup and the lions efforts looking elsewhere.
why would this not be possible here? we are in exactly the same position as the english. we’re the one paying for and watching all the rugby yet allowing the smallest, most corrupt participant/stakeholder to get away with far more of the resources than they deserve.
its madness and the english have finally come round to that. we should do the same.
14 Sep 2012, 08:25 am
It hurts me to say this, but the AB’s need to smash the coaches kick and pray game-plan to smithereens on Saturday for the sake of Bok progress. The talented young generation of rugby players we’ve got coming through deserve better than this.
14 Sep 2012, 08:28 am
Premiership Rugby and the unions which organise the Heineken Cup may end up in court as the battle for control of European rugby’s leading club competition intensifies in the biggest schism in six nations rugby for 14 years.
A TV deal with BT Vision announced by Premiership Rugby this week, which included rights to European competition, provoked a war of words with European Rugby Cup Ltd, the organisers of the Heineken and Amlin Challenge Cups, with each side accusing the other of selling the rights to a tournament that did not exist.
Premiership Rugby’s TV deal and desire to change the format of the Heineken Cup are the ostensible reasons for the dispute. ERC maintains that International Rugby Board regulations do not allow clubs to negotiate television or sponsorship contracts unless their union gives them permission, and then it only applies to competitions played within their own borders. It was taking legal advice.
14 Sep 2012, 08:31 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-656: Come on bro, the competition just got a whole lot more interesting with the Argies. Travel has been evened up somewhat with their inclusion and they’re already right up there in terms of competitiveness. Dont really care about the financial/crowd side of things, just know that our rugby standard will gradually get even worse playing with those NH’ers.
14 Sep 2012, 08:31 am
The English clubs, who boycotted Europe in 1998 in a dispute over who controlled the professional game, insist under the terms of an agreement with the Rugby Football Union five years ago they have the right to do their own TV deals. That deal ends in 2016, two years before the contract with BT Vision concludes, something that could be rendered invalid if the RFU took back the negotiation rights.
ERC has agreed an enhanced TV deal with Sky for the Heineken Cup to run to 2018, something Premiership Rugby which, with the leading French clubs, last June served a two-year notice for pulling out of the European tournaments, says is invalid because, with a new participation agreement to replace the one that ends in 2014 not agreed, there is nothing to sell. “What this is about is club competitions being run by clubs rather than the unions,” said a Premiership source. “The Champions League is not run by the Football Association or the German federation and imagine how stupid it would be if it were. It is in everyone’s interests to play together with a more even distribution of money than is currently the case.It comes down to who blinks first.”
The English and French clubs say the only way to get meaningful change is to make a lot of noise, and by securing money for a European competition from BT Vision, whose chief executive Marc Watson predicted a new European competition with a “fantastic new format‚” would replace the Heineken Cup, they have the financial means to divide the other four countries that make up the ERC board, Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Italy.
14 Sep 2012, 08:32 am
i really do not see why we couldn’t do the same.
we’re in exactly the same position as the english and french are, wrt the anzacs.
14 Sep 2012, 08:33 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-658:
See how that last paragraph applies to the Lions plans.
14 Sep 2012, 08:35 am
@Spiesisworthless1-659:
no it has not, kak reffing and anzac player freeby hits have made sure of that.
besides, thats test rugby, the example is their version of super rugby which i think we can do similarly.
14 Sep 2012, 08:38 am
Premiership Rugby says its television agreement signed with BT – £38m a year for four seasons from 2013?14 – will not only save the Heineken Cup but will widen the boundaries of the game in Europe. The £152m contract is a 50% improvement on the current deal with ESPN and Sky, which lasts until the end of the season, and includes the rights to all European matches played in England from the 2014?15 season.
English clubs, along with their leading French counterparts, gave notice this year that they would withdraw from the Heineken Cup when the current deal expires at the end of next season. They want the way the European competitions are run to be altered radically.
.
this is exactly the type of deal we could facilitate between mulitchoice/superspoort and saru and pay for it with the money given to newscorp.
14 Sep 2012, 08:41 am
@David-662:
so saru give the lions permission within our borders and the premiership, with consent from rfu, gives them permission to play/participate within their borders?
14 Sep 2012, 08:41 am
Pooper I was not being funny at all,only factual.Chunt du Fernly is working in Tembisa today,which is a township.
Grunter I work in the proffesional side of construction so no bricklaying for me.
Apologies Bakkies,I retract that most vile of insult of calling you our version of pooper.
14 Sep 2012, 08:55 am
Fernley the number of the beast.
14 Sep 2012, 08:55 am
@Fern-638: FERN NO.Not classy
14 Sep 2012, 08:58 am
@Fern-666:
hehe
cheers fernly, you’re such a chop.
14 Sep 2012, 09:01 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-665:
As I read it, national unions have the ability to sanction deals within their own borders, but need IRB approval for international (cross border) agreements.
14 Sep 2012, 09:05 am
@poppa69-651: Also no classy.
14 Sep 2012, 09:05 am
no = not
14 Sep 2012, 09:09 am
@David-670:
well, that’s according to the erc (european rugby cup tld) interpretation of the the rules and regards who hold s the rights.
i dont think the irb have anywhere neas as much power in this regard as perhaps say fifa hold in football. i would make an analogy of using sanzar and its competitons it holds in relation to the irb. if sanzar wanted to tweak things around what and who broadcasts and the irb attempted to force a position on them, what leverage does the irb hold if sanzar told them to phukkoff?
when the current broadcasting deal ends does sanzar need to consult with or at the least get the irb’s permission when siging off on any new deal they would put together?
14 Sep 2012, 09:14 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-656:
“am i the only doos here on this?”
Oh yes you are believe it or not.
2009….no such claim. Not one little bit of bad refs or cheating kiwis or even lets go to the NH.
But after a loss of any sort, all these pop up.Have a look through all the threads who the main little whinger is.
Starts with the the letter “I” and has the word Bakkies in it.
You complained about the ref during the Ozzie and argie games.
NH reffed the Ozzie game yet you still were not happy and believed the ref cheated you out of a win there. Face it, you are a very sore loser that blames everything but your own team.
14 Sep 2012, 09:17 am
If the Stormers and Boks ever moved or tried to move up north, it would be the end of the marriage for me.
I have zero interest in my teams heading up north just so we can feel good about ourselves.
The best in the world remains in the south, and that is who I want my teams to measure themselves against.
Try and move north then Sharks, Bulls and Lions, but don’t fuckaround with those of us who enjoy the worlds finest thrashing it out every weekend down south.
14 Sep 2012, 09:19 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-675:
Yep.
I dont believe some of these guys want to have easier games so they can feel better.
As i said earlier, move to NH and watch the the rest in the south get better while you guys feel good beating scotland and italy. Watch your rugby go down hill.
14 Sep 2012, 09:27 am
@poppa69 628:
For a start, they might have looked at the fact the ABs are spluttering with their high-tempo attacking game, making mistakes galore and scoring few tries. Against the high-pressure rugby the Boks specialise in, I’m not convinced their error stats are going to get any better and they’ll rack up a hatful of tries.
They might have looked at the fact the Boks have the superior goal kickers and that, if the ABs are again failing to score tries, the Boks have a couple of Steyns, Morne deadly accurate from up to 45m and Frans capable of knocking them over from 65m — and drop-kicking goals from that distance as well.
They might have looked at the fact the ABs’ most physical performers of recent times, particularly against the Boks, Thorn and Kaino, are no longer in the side.
They might have looked at the fact Savea doesn’t always look as safe as the Bank of England under the high ball, and that he can expect a few to come his way tomorrow night.
They might have looked at the fact that while Cruden has potential, Dan is still the man, and he’s not there.
They might have looked at the fact that NZ and SA turned in similar performances against the Pumas at home, with similar scorelines.
They might have looked at the fact that historically, the ABs don’t always cut the mustard when painted as overwhelming favourites, especially when playing the Boks. As just a few examples, do the third test, Christchurch, 1965, 1970 test series and 1995 world cup final ring any bells?
There’s a saying that goes along these lines: “Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.”
I think I’m the only ABs supporter who’s ever had a clue what that means.
14 Sep 2012, 09:27 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-673:
I think SANZAR is recognised by the IRB as a governing body, so they have the right to negotiate broadcast rights.
14 Sep 2012, 09:29 am
@Hurricane-674:
not true, hurri.
i have always expressed my unhappiness with the two competitions sa has been involved in with the anzacs, i have never liked it enough to want to continue with it.
it certainly has to a large extent been influenced by the atrocious level of deceipt, manipulation and dishonesty exhibited by the anzacs (mostly kiwis).
14 Sep 2012, 09:30 am
@Hurricane-674:
i wouldn’t say i am alone in being unhappy with our participation with kiwis.
i would say a lot of posters on here are very unhappy but perphaps not as exteme in their desired alternatives.
14 Sep 2012, 09:31 am
@Monty15-677:
1965?? That over a million years ago
Nice post Monty. You have hit it with the ABs not finishing. This is a problem and it will only take a bit of pressure from the Boks to make things go bad to worse.
I am not sold on this AB team at the moment.
14 Sep 2012, 09:32 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-679:
And there is your problem. Those voices in ya head
14 Sep 2012, 09:32 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-675:
nothing enjoyable about rigged outcomes.
14 Sep 2012, 09:33 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-675: @Hurricane-676: if for some stupid reason SARU left Sanzar it would spell the end of the business side of rugby in NZ and in Aus to an extent…Steve Tew and them even went as far as threatening to boycott the next world cup if no compensation id forthcoming from the IRB
i want NZ rugby healthy as i want our Boks to measure themselves against the elite in world rugby…
14 Sep 2012, 09:33 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-683: Bakkies, read the last two sentences and tell me why our players can’t think like this!!
Romano relishing Springboks clash
Published: Tuesday, 11. September, 2012
Romano: A dream come trues
It has been a meteoric rise for Romano, who was the fourth-ranked lock for the Crusaders when when he made his Super Rugby debut last year.
Romano, 26, was a late bloomer in rugby – he was actually making his mark in cricket in Christchurch as a fast bowler – but he has made up for lost time.
He made his debut against Ireland and has retained his place for the two Tests against Australia and the clash with Argentina last weekend, impressing with his robust, physical approach and his ball skills.
“It’s right up there in terms of career highlights,” he said in reference to his first test against the Springboks.
“The Aussies are obviously our enemies but the ‘Boks are our traditional opponents and are tough in terms of their attitude and physicality. It’s an exciting challenge.”
Romano said the tough forward-orientated Test against the Pumas was good physical and mental preparation for the Dunedin showdown.
Romano was a strong presence at the lineout in the Wellington win and said he was looking forward to the aerial battle against the Springboks.
He said: “All their Super (Rugby) teams have got very good lineout forwards. They’re big men. Victor (Matfield) and company left them in pretty good shape. It’s something we’re really excited about. We’ll try to get on top of them in the lineouts so it should be a good battle.
“It probably does help that you play the Africans and Aussies in Super Rugby and you’ve got a general idea of their forward methods.
“But the physical side of it doesn’t get any easier. They’re a big team and their players love confrontation.”
Romano said the breakdown would be a crucial area in Dunedin.
“I think every team tries to disrupt at the breakdown.If you slow down the opposition ball, you allow your defence to set.
“We need to do our job properly in and around the breakdown and give our halfbacks decent protection. We need to really work on that.”
14 Sep 2012, 09:34 am
@David-678:
esay to do the same though. just setup an african wide operation and pull in a few island sattelites to give it crediblity and then negotiate/demand recognition as a governing body for our region.
at the end of the day money is what swings the big decisions… and we have it.
14 Sep 2012, 09:35 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-680:
Seriously, are yuo for real about the refs in the last 2 bok games?
A few on here believe you are just trolling. I believe you honestly think the refs blew it for the Boks. Who is correct here?
14 Sep 2012, 09:37 am
@Transformation-684:
its an unatural creation which has been as much the reason for our troubles as has our internal saru kak been.
i say kill it and let them farkin play however they want. there is no danger of multichoive losing subscriber money here at all.
14 Sep 2012, 09:37 am
@Hurricane-681: are you blaming Fossy like most kiwis here have been intimating?
14 Sep 2012, 09:41 am
638 Fern
actually sometimes I am completely embaressed to be south African with comments like this – have you actually got a single shred of human decency?
There is no call for that – what in gods name is wrong with you ?
14 Sep 2012, 09:44 am
@Transformation-685:
transie, i could pen a heart opening insight to you from a guy like danie rossouw which would show as much emotion, intelligence and inspiration as this.
only it would reflect the truth of how his career was blighted by the tricked up deceits of the anzacs. thorn plays filthy, lifts a player off the ground and slams him on his back causing a 6 month injury and gets to sing about life while danie gets 10 in the bin immediately and many, many easy punishments thereafter for nudging a player on the ground who was clearly niggling him.
thats the sad part of this joke
its pointless to play with them.
14 Sep 2012, 09:46 am
@Hurricane-687:
sing it to the birds, hurricane.
your team is filthy and your administrators too.
14 Sep 2012, 09:46 am
@Hurricane-676: You are preaching to the converted my friend.
If some of these fellows think moving north suddenly fixes all that is wrong with SA rugby in general, they are in for a rude awakening.
As a solution, it suits those who want quick fixes…those who want to see the Bulls or Sharks for example fuckup all comers week in and week out. It suits those who want the Boks to enter a 6 Nations tournament as joint favourites for the title every year (when the truth is: France, Scotland, Ireland, England and Wales would all fancy their chances against the Boks these days in any case…..)
One just has to look at how many (not all) individual players regress after stints up north to convince me that we must fight tooth and nail to prevent ANY move, at any stage, EVER.
No. EOYT’s are enough for me thank you.
14 Sep 2012, 09:48 am
Premiership Rugby’s exclusive deal with BT, which will next season start covering English Premiership football in place of ESPN, means that English club rugby’s association with Sky, which started in 1994, will end after 19 years. By selling their European matches, the English clubs have effectively left ERC with just matches in the three Celtic countries and Italy with which to bargain.
McCafferty said his organisation is not looking to challenge ERC. “Our motivation is to increase the value of European competition,” he said. “Maximising television and sponsorship deals so that the game grows in every country. Having someone like BT on board, a company worth nearly £19bn, can only be good
14 Sep 2012, 09:50 am
@David-678:
to answer our questions:
The ERC board meets on Tuesday in Dublinnext week to discuss a new participation agreement. England’s two directors are Leicester’s Peter Wheeler and the RFU’s Rob Andrew. Other unions are looking to Twickenham to exert their authority over the clubs and emphasise that TV rights for cross-border regulations are not for clubs to sell under the IRB’s regulation 13. The IRB can only become involved if a union makes a complaint.
so basically saru does not complain and the irb does not get involved in any commercial deals / contractual conflicts the lions, saru and any broadcasters may look at getting into.
14 Sep 2012, 09:51 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/sep/13/premiership-rugby-tv-deal-europe?newsfeed=true
14 Sep 2012, 09:51 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/sep/12/premiership-rugby-bt-deal-broadcast?newsfeed=true
14 Sep 2012, 09:53 am
huge, huge potential here.
14 Sep 2012, 09:56 am
The NH are old nations, they are completely different to the new nations if tge SH, both in culture and weather – if you honestly think the average south African would be happier playing up north, you have no idea.
I don’t quite know where all the hatred comes from.
14 Sep 2012, 09:58 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-697: you think the english love you? hehehe
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