Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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14 Sep 2012, 10:03 am
@Hurricane 681:
Cheers. When it’s NZ v SA, as far as I’m concerned it’s always a bit of a lottery. One team can be below their game going in and the other in top form, but once the whistles blows all that means nothing and it’s game on, either side can win.
1966? Yeah, a long time ago and I was a little kid but I can still see the black and white TV picture of Tiny Naude, the Boks lock, whacking the ball out of the Lancaster Park mud for a successful penalty and a shock victory.
When you’ve had your backside bitten by SA as often as they’ve bitten ours, you’d have to be an absolute idiot not to respect them.
14 Sep 2012, 10:04 am
@Transformation-700:
they would love a very profitable commercial opportunity, transie.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/sep/12/rugby-premiership-tv-rights-bt?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487
Sky falls in for some as English clubs run off with the ball
At first glance £152m seems an awful lot to pay to get rid of Dewi Morris. Only time will tell whether Premiership Rugby Limited’s “game-changing” deal with BT is good news for all sections of the sport but one thing is already clear: England’s rugby union clubs have just won the equivalent of the lottery. If that means shafting poor Dewi to line a few other pockets, so be it.
As well as some long faces in the studios of Sky and ESPN there are grim expressions at European Rugby Cup Ltd’s offices in Dublin. This new four-year agreement from 2013-14 may be about money – a 50% rise on the previous figure – but it is also about power. The Premiership’s head honchos have been unhappy for years with the structure of the Heineken Cup and, significantly, this BT bonanza incorporates exclusive live rights to European games from 2014. The prospect of a new club-controlled tournament, no longer run by the unions, looks ever more likely.
In essence the English clubs have scooped up the TV ball and run off with it. Sky has faithfully covered the Heineken Cup since its inception and done much to establish it as the pre-eminent, most lucrative non-Test tournament in the world. Now it, and the Celtic nations, have been ruthlessly jettisoned and bluntly informed the goalposts have moved.
There was, apparently, a mood of genuine shock in the corridors at Isleworth when the news broke. For Sky, not exactly a shy media-land predator itself in the past two decades, the sensation of being hoist with its own high-definition petard must be doubly galling.
14 Sep 2012, 10:06 am
They should get Louis Luyt to put this deal together. I know is 80 but he his got balls.
But he shouldn’t have taken on Madiba though. Big career ending mistake.
14 Sep 2012, 10:09 am
@Jeraldjay-703:
yip, heard him in the recent interview about the lions and he still sounds very compus to me. at the least involve him as a consultant/advisor.
agreed, stupid move on madiba, the guys a saint.
14 Sep 2012, 10:10 am
compos?
14 Sep 2012, 10:10 am
This is why Louis Luyt has balls…….
He was president of the South African Rugby Union when the Springboks, the national team, won the Rugby World Cup in 1995 at their first attempt after returning to international competition after more than a decade of isolation. At the official dinner for the Springboks and the New Zealand All Blacks, following the former’s narrow victory over the latter in the final, in a speech described by the New Zealand media as “boorish”, he declared that if they had played, South Africa would have won the previous two Rugby World Cups including the 1987 tournament won by the All Blacks. In response, the All Blacks walked out of the dinner. During that same dinner, he also caused controversy by publicly thanking referee Derek Bevan for his refereeing during the semi-final between France and South Africa; Bevan had denied France a last-minute try, despite it “look[ing] like [Frenchman Abdelatif Benazzi] had grounded the ball over the tryline on the slow motion action replay” (there was at the time no television match official). Had the try been allowed, France would have taken the lead. Luyt invited Bevan onto stage to accept an expensive gold watch, leading to a mass walkout, with Bevan himself leaving the room.[6]
In 1998 allegations of lingering racism in rugby led to him being required to appear before a presidential commission of inquiry but Luyt refused to appear and forced President Mandela into court. A judge of the High Court found for Luyt,[8] but on appeal the Constitutional Court found against him and for the President.
14 Sep 2012, 10:12 am
Farken arrogant Kiwis… time for them to get knocked straight off their pedestal.
Some submissive Saffas love getting shagged by the ANZACS… Heck SARU does…
Some submissive Saffas love everything Kiwi… Heck some wear AB jerseys to Bok or Super Rugby games…
Some submissive Saffas are so enamoured with whatever patronising claptrap any Kiwi coach throws out absentmindedly on a blog, like Wayne Smith, that they forget that there is more to the world of rugby…
These submissive Saffas and their AB worship and sheepshagger apologetics…
I aint one of them.
Fark the Kiwis… Fark the Saffa quislings of the last few pages…
Kiwis “quietly confident”… Boks supreme underdogs tomorrow.
Farken give them a snotklap straight off their collective arrogant pedestals they have placed themselves on…
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKE
BOOM!
14 Sep 2012, 10:14 am
@Jeraldjay-706: in the amateur era yes…john o’neill would run circles around him now…
14 Sep 2012, 10:16 am
Got nothing to do with submissive – which other country u think is so rugby befok ? Which other country has so much respect for sa rugby ? Look at tge numbers of kiwi posters on here – what u think they come here for the compliments?
14 Sep 2012, 10:18 am
Corpus.
14 Sep 2012, 10:19 am
@Transformation-708:
Why?
14 Sep 2012, 10:20 am
@Heavens Game-707:
Last time you said Boom,you lost and you disappeared for about 2 weeks.
14 Sep 2012, 10:21 am
@cab-709:
14 Sep 2012, 10:21 am
Bakkies if you don’t enjoy rigged outcomes then you wouldn’t have enjoyed dozens of tests played in SA under refs like your mate Gerty, none of those test results should stand.
14 Sep 2012, 10:23 am
@Transformation-708: You the type of little chappie so enamoured with the Anzacs that should you be in SARU you would almost definitely doing the bendover manoeuvre so perfected by their negotiating team when dealing with ONeill, Tew and that other fckface arrogant Kiwi Peters now in charge of SANZAR… The difference with the likes of you and the other quislings is that you would be luvving it…
14 Sep 2012, 10:24 am
@Hurricane-712:
Rumpelstiltskin.
14 Sep 2012, 10:24 am
we go out, negotiate and strike up a lucrative deal for 2016 onwards and then announce our intentions to the anzacs.
we could even have our pies and eat them, with a deal on the sanzar/news limited side and a deal on the supersport/premiership/bt side.
14 Sep 2012, 10:24 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-692:
I asked a question and you did not answer.
Tell me, did you say the bok drew with the Pumas cos of the ref blew for Pumas.
And did you not say the ref blew in Ozzies favour in the second half, thats why the Boks lost.
Tell me do you believe that or are you trolling like some say you are?
14 Sep 2012, 10:27 am
@Transformation-708:
have you met the guy transie?
trust me, no one runs circles around louis luyt.
14 Sep 2012, 10:28 am
@cab-709: Maybe deep down Kiwis submissive too… Therefore they expect others, out of their insular line of sight, to be submissive little hakarena dancers too… Thats why they cant understand when chaps just say fark you to their arrogance… when they actually expecting bendover… and take it like they have always done.
14 Sep 2012, 10:28 am
@gunther-710:
?
i was trying to say compis mentis.
14 Sep 2012, 10:32 am
@Hurricane-718:
to be clear, boks were not very good at times in both games, sure.
but the ref cleary farked it up at the breadown in the arg game and similarly gave the ozzies an easy ride in 2nd half of that game.
and then the snivelling little kiwi judicial inside boys came in for the hit from behind.
as per usual.
14 Sep 2012, 10:32 am
@cab-690: Ja, that was not cool at all.
14 Sep 2012, 10:33 am
Bakkies
you dreaming about pies, focus on the rugby.
The bigger problem the SH have is how to stem the flow of young talent going off to play in the NH – I mean soon Italy will be playing with xv Luigi van der Merwe’s and Wales with David David’s Botha.
14 Sep 2012, 10:33 am
Louis Luyt what a stand up guy.
14 Sep 2012, 10:34 am
@Hurricane-712: I was here through all the Black and White Dynamite signed sealed and delivered BOOM!s right through the S15 tournament and even when those BOOM!S werent quite there either while the rest of the whatnots were worshipping the water the no try scoring Stormers were walking on or signing petitions to get rid of Plum and replace him with Stonehouse….
And for subsequent BOOM!S thereafter…. So take your Kiwi “quietly confident” Pomlike arrogance and shove it straight up your submissive place where you think the sun shines… You can do a little hakarena on while your way there too.
14 Sep 2012, 10:35 am
720 sounds like you might make a good kiwi with all this bent over shagging going on – u like your skaap then do you?
14 Sep 2012, 10:35 am
@Transformation-708:
seriously, he may be old and on in years but the guys a big man physically with blunt booming tone and uses his size to effect when ‘negotiating’ with someone.
14 Sep 2012, 10:35 am
@NZINCHINA-725: Yeah, stand up IS the right words… not bendover like the current SARU bunch.
14 Sep 2012, 10:36 am
Let’s not start talking about bent refs China you little knobber otherwise I’m going to have to bring up crooked paddy and bent Brycie.
You’ll have to go away and come back under another name again.
14 Sep 2012, 10:37 am
Pig of a man.
14 Sep 2012, 10:38 am
No lets talk about it.
14 Sep 2012, 10:38 am
@cab-727: I like my skaap… to farken scoff… no conjugal rights for me with any Merino…
Now behave… I’m watching you… May start painting you with the same submissive AB tar brush as the rest of the treasonous hakarena worshipping quislings.
14 Sep 2012, 10:39 am
@Heavens Game-726:
14 Sep 2012, 10:39 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-728:
Louis in his prime would have horse cocked O’Neil.
14 Sep 2012, 10:42 am
How they haven’t got Paddy locked up in the Hague is beyond me.
14 Sep 2012, 10:43 am
Luyt was instrumental and condoned the picking of the murderer Tromp to face the 96 AB side, the first series we won in SA and coincidently the first one using neutral refs.
14 Sep 2012, 10:44 am
sheesh fern, poops mom is out of bounds bud.
i see i stirred the kiwibees up with my comments about the synchronised dancing that we have to watch before the kiwis will play rugby.
i know it means something to you kiwis, truly. but it means nothing to me.
it is styilised and commercialised bs kiwi buddies.
seriously.
and the way it has been treated as some kind of sacrosanct little “so you think you can dance” episode has just become annoying imo.
but thats my opinion, dont expect me to treasure things that are important to you but i will try to avoid insulting them ok?
14 Sep 2012, 10:44 am
@Heavens Game-726:
Bullshit. Fuking lier.
You went missing as you always do.
Talk the talk and then run away with tail between legs.
14 Sep 2012, 10:46 am
@sharks_lover-734:
what are you laughing at?
HG is full of it. He has been found to be a talker andonce it goes all wrong runs away….coward
14 Sep 2012, 10:47 am
@NZINCHINA-737: haha, brycie wasnt available then?
lets be honest, brycie is the biggest smoking gun besides for the get the japies email. its shameful how your union behaved over those two incidents china, truly shameful.
14 Sep 2012, 10:47 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-722:
So you did blame the ref in both games.
I knew it.
Like i tried to tell a couple on here, but they said you were not seriuos cos thats a cop out.
14 Sep 2012, 10:48 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-728: Yeah… He appointed the best coach in Bok history to mould a team to win the Best World Cup in history and beat probably the best AB team in history in the final… So, yeah Luyt was the business…. And rugby was all his business.
Those AB “losers” in the Invictus final put the current Rigged World Cup “Champs” to shame…
Fark me, can you imagine Piggy Weepu in that team or that final?
14 Sep 2012, 10:48 am
@Heavens Game 707:
I know this Maori guy, he’s about 26. He loves it when the ABs play the Boks. He pulls on his jersey, sits in front of the TV set and screams himself hoarse. The shirt he wears is a Springbok one and the team he screams for is SA. Why? He just likes the Boks. I have no problem with that, to each his own. I wouldn’t get too bothered about S Africans supporting the ABs because there are probably as many EnZedders who back the Boks.
14 Sep 2012, 10:49 am
@rangerman-738:
If it means nothing to you then why comment?
14 Sep 2012, 10:49 am
Ja look the haka is completely unfair – how come they tge only ones allowed a wardance ?
They say it’s a sign of respect my arse – huge psycholigal boost – nevertheless I actually think it’s perfect for the SA psyche, like an oke down at the brakpan pub asking to dans ekse. If they did away with tge haka vs SA they’d probably have won more.
14 Sep 2012, 10:50 am
No whats shameful is picking a convicted murderer and whats worse the majority condoning it in the name of rugby.
14 Sep 2012, 10:51 am
@rangerman-741:
haha, you want to go down the shameful road?
I wouldnt if i were you. Weall know plenty of shameful things that SA have done to the game. Lets quit while its not too one sided.
14 Sep 2012, 10:52 am
The victim was black though that may have had something to do with it.
14 Sep 2012, 10:53 am
Yip I think the haka sends the Boks more into a frenzy than anyone else – they might as well be putting up a bright red flag to a bull and stick an estoque into the bulls arse for good measure.
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