Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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14 Sep 2012, 10:54 am
@gunther-730:
there was a crooked ref
who received a crooked brief
he blew a crooked whistle
that ignored a crooked thief
he allowed a crooked flank
to steal a crooked ball
and they still put this ref
in the famous rugby hall
14 Sep 2012, 10:54 am
@Monty15-744:
what a story and just goes to show you how wonderful the world is, cool cary and beautiful just like johnny clegg said (he is a saffa muso bud).
@Hurricane-745: dont you want to know my opinion hurri? i listen to yours and respect it.
@cab-746:
cab you are a laugh a minute bud.
14 Sep 2012, 10:54 am
@cab-746:
So we only do the haka now?
Cab, surely you dont have an eye problem.
14 Sep 2012, 10:55 am
@gunther-735:
yip
i can tell you from personal experience old louis in his prime was a mean mother farking bully. very, very intimidating person. the kinda guy who quickly had you worked up to the point of expecting a fist fight to break out anytime.
that was his negotiating style ‘how to win a deal 101′.
14 Sep 2012, 10:55 am
@cab-750:
well then you should have no problemon the weekend then.
14 Sep 2012, 10:55 am
@Hurricane-739: How come I am here then numbnuts… right behind the Boks…
DESPITE the FACT that they are supreme UNDERDOGS…
DESPITE the WAY Heyneke has been fuckingup…
DESPITE the farken lay down and whimper woe is me attitude of some of the Saffa Kiwi sycophants here….
NOOOO… I am here raging at the sunset….
And farken telling you arrogant farkers that I am supporting the Boks and hoping that they poesklap you and your arrogant team straight of your farken longpig hakarena emplaced pedestals…
Farken little cowards… Kiwi’s “Brave”? My left ballas. I’ve seen your kind run like the wind when confronted and your arrogant infallibility on a rugby field shown up for the illusion it is.
Maybe tomorrow… And Goddamn would that be SCHWEEET!
14 Sep 2012, 10:56 am
@cab-724:
sure but we should be worrying about both aspects of our rugby then.
14 Sep 2012, 10:57 am
@cab-750: Farken LMAO
14 Sep 2012, 10:58 am
@sharks_lover-734: Huzzit Sharkie… Its the traditional Keo Bok vs AB pregame buildup
14 Sep 2012, 10:58 am
@Hurricane-748: i didnt go down the road hurri, our resident sourpoes china did.
i think we all know rapists and murderers can be found amongst all nations.
but devious cheating thieving refs have been a nz staple import for years.
thats just my opinion of course
14 Sep 2012, 11:00 am
@Hurricane-742:
read it however you like my friend.
@Heavens Game-743:
yip
luyt was the business
not a man to be enjoyed in any personal relation but in rugby and the business thereof he was ‘the busuness’.
14 Sep 2012, 11:01 am
@rangerman-752:
lol yeah right.
There is ways of putting your opinion across without the lame cracks the haka.
Sure, i dont mind that you dont like it. I dont expect anyone on here to like it.
It is something we have done for a long time now.
We were booed big time the last time the Welsh decided to *** with the Haka.
The welsh people were so angry with there own union. Thought we did not
respect welsh rugby.
14 Sep 2012, 11:01 am
@Monty15-744: You probably describing Poppa69 to me for all I know… or Hurricunt himself.
No, farkem and their Haka “Challenge” that can’t be challenged back…
Hoosa real cowards now, huh?
Do a farken challenge but it cant be met or else fines dished out left right and centre…
Ask the Frogs if you dont believe me.
14 Sep 2012, 11:01 am
nz ref of the year brycie lawrence.
son of the get the japies mailer.
disgraced and given the boot by his own union and too chickensh i t to ever travel to the republic again unlike that english worthy with a ramrod backbone and a fair and honest demeanour, wayne barnes (may all fall at his feet and hail his angelic visage).
14 Sep 2012, 11:01 am
@Heavens Game-743: you mean the rigged world cup of 95?
when the ladies in white coats had to sweep water off the pitch otherwise the game would have been awarded to France?
the one whereby in that very movie, it is clear as day that Madiba made an executive decision, and I quote “we must win this game AT ANY COST
”
the one where the ref was offered a gold watch?
yep, and then you guys beat a sick tam in double injury time, the same team that when healthy smashed you guys the following year in a series..
talk about a rigged World cup, 95 was definitely it
what time is your flight to France on saturday HG?
14 Sep 2012, 11:03 am
@rangerman-760:
i see you mention their refs and nothing about their filthy players..?..
just an opinion of course.
14 Sep 2012, 11:03 am
@Heavens Game-756:
Are you honestly that think?
Like i said you go missing after giving a whole lot of lip when your team lose.
Its a known fact on here. HGM “Heaven goes missing”
No need to be embarrased about not facing the music afterwards.
14 Sep 2012, 11:03 am
755
I got no problem with it at all – he’ll I actively encourage it for the Boks – it turns them on – for the rest of the year they basically fast asleep – superb kiwi invention – thanks
but the other teams must consider it a bit unfair afterall you don’t see the scots doing a Robert-tge-Bruce pep-up or the English baring their arses or 2 fingers agincourt style. It’s a bit much but u guys obviously got special connections at tge irb to get special treatment – it’s fine Boks like being the underdog – the higher the obstacles stacked the better – brycie was a but much tho – gdam u boys know how to cheat good.
14 Sep 2012, 11:04 am
“ja boys but listen you can go home after the series I have to live here”
14 Sep 2012, 11:04 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-761: Yeah, I reckon Luyt in his prime would have made Tew and O’Neill his collective bevy of biyatches… The kissing cousins would be paying us for the privilege of playing us… not the submissive other way round like SARU has ensured now.
14 Sep 2012, 11:05 am
@Hurricane-762: well as i said, i respect your opinion on the matter but the dance is meaningless to me nowadays.
sure, if i saw it once a year or maybe every two years it would give me more time to reach for the biltong but now its like a commercialised ad break bud.
and watching that movie about the guy and his dad sitting on the couch crying during the haka and then going to an ab practice where the abs are busy PRACTICING THE HAKA just made me laugh.
brand exhaustion i guess.
14 Sep 2012, 11:05 am
if we go north china, will you troll along with us?
14 Sep 2012, 11:06 am
how bout you pops?
14 Sep 2012, 11:06 am
@rangerman-764:
And that was rubbish. Totally agree with Brycie cr@p. Brycie should have been booted, not given a medal.
But like i said,the NZRU is not the NZ public or AB fan. Embarrasing.
But you should stop before things get rough in here
14 Sep 2012, 11:07 am
Bakkies I couldn’t give a continental where you go we’ll still beat you more than you beat us.
14 Sep 2012, 11:07 am
@poppa69-765: are you suggesting that the “ladies in white coats” shouldnt have tried to sweep the water off the field to get the game on?
great idea, what a sportsman, what a man, whattadoos
hope the abs dont leave the lights off for 15mins this weekend if they are tuckered by halftime.
14 Sep 2012, 11:08 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-773: Id be quite happy to see you guys go north Bakkies..
I like watching Scotland, Ireland and English club sides beating “once in a generation” bok players..
it sure is funny
14 Sep 2012, 11:08 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-761:
Read it how i like?
You are the one saying it. Refs fault why the boks lost against the Ozzies and drew against the Pumas.
Havre a look at the thread when the game was going against the Boks and Ozzies. On there you will see the amount of offsides and forward passes and foul play you guys were doing.
Yet you say nothing about that. Why is that?
14 Sep 2012, 11:09 am
@cab-750: I love the Haka. Grew up watching it as a very young kid(even though on smuggled in Betamax and VHS cassettes: AB’s vs everyone else) Fascinated by it, and as I got older I started praying I would see the Boks face off to it in my lifetime more than just once or twice….
No, even though I am Bokette, the Haka has always been past and parcel of why I have loved the game.
The 1st time I saw the AB’s perform the Haka “live” as a kid, wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy back, and at Eden Park nogals, remains one of my VERY best rugby memories.
I don’t get the hate for it. Sorry.
14 Sep 2012, 11:10 am
@poppa69-765: To the Yanks, the Boks are obviously the real business in this great game called Rugby… They the leaders of the Free World… Of course they right…
World Cup 95 was and IS THE pre-eminent World Cup EVER.
The best final ever… LOST by probably the BEST AB’s ever.
Yup, those were the days of Kiwi honour and assuming their rightful place… A close second to the Green and Gold proper heirs to their God Given right of the Rugby Throne.
Now its just descended into get the Japies and fine the French farce….
You okes farking up the game of rugby and its only hope of salvation is through the BOKKE.
BOK BEFOK.
14 Sep 2012, 11:10 am
@Hurricane-774:
cmon bud, its all banter before the greatest clash rugby has to offer.
but ja, i agree, the avg nz fan simply wants to watch rugby and get on with it much like the avg bok fan.
what would help is if the bs reffing and decison making was actually sorted imo.
14 Sep 2012, 11:10 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-772:
lol North does not want you.
Especially if they read the cr@p you post.
14 Sep 2012, 11:10 am
@rangerman-776: not sure any other team would have been afforded the same if the circumstances were different Ranger..
lets just say I have my suspicions if NZ needed the field swept of water, otherwise they would have been knocked out, there would suddenly have been a broom shortage in SA
14 Sep 2012, 11:13 am
@NZINCHINA 749:
There were actually two murder victims, a farm worker and the worker’s dad.
14 Sep 2012, 11:14 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-779: and thasts just fine ruckles, no one is taking that away from you.
i was stating MY opinion.
dont let me spoil anything for you much like your nic doesnt make me love the sharks any less.
see, its a double eded sword you are wielding there sista.
14 Sep 2012, 11:14 am
@rangerman-771:
hehe
its funny but i also use it to time my runs to the fridge or toilet for a quick piss or to do anything stupid and inane someone may want from me before the game starts.
14 Sep 2012, 11:14 am
@Heavens Game-780: really? to the yanks it was all about Madiba, not the rugby..
but I see it appeases your arrogant lil brain to think so, so be it..
we farking up rugby? I think any team that has won one game out of eight versus the Wallabies shouldnt really even be playing rugby.
Hell, Scotland beat them last time out, yet SA hasnt for at least 6 games now
eish, Id hide and blame everyone else too..
14 Sep 2012, 11:14 am
The best thing for Rugby in it farcical form nowadays with the “legendary” ABs installing a large sized Prop at 9 is for the supreme underdogs to win in these stuck up sheepshaggers own backyard….
Ye, I tell you…
My faith in this world will be replenished… and renewed….
The Boks against the arrogant AB Empire right up above on their pedestal where the eagles fly …
Jeez, wouldn’t it be farken Schweet if Beast could PK “Sir” Reechie the Pakeha Knight a good few snotklaps in the process.
14 Sep 2012, 11:14 am
Sorry meant for Hurricane 755
as for Popps he def deserves his return of serve at times -gdam he seems to luv his keo tennis – where is kobus ?
14 Sep 2012, 11:15 am
@rangerman-781:
Ranger i understand. But Brycie was an embarrasment, you guys have every right to complain about Brycie getting any sort of a medal or recognition how good he supposedly was in 2011.
He was rubbish end off.
Reffing well always be a problem with the amount of rules and some calls that can borderline on going either wayis a huge problem.
This new rule they are trialing with 5 seconds in back off ruck is going to cause more issues. I can see it now. Everyone well believe the ABs get 7 seconds while the rest of the world gets 4 seconds to clear it.
14 Sep 2012, 11:16 am
Really correction then double murderer, my apologies.
14 Sep 2012, 11:18 am
@poppa69-783: thats sweet but you have no basis for that supposition so it remains just that poops, a supposition.
what i really find amusing is your desire that the ladies had not swept the field simply so the boks would have been knocked out without a game of rugby?
this indicates to me a deep seated conflict within you:
To be a REAL rugby man
or
to win at all costs.
i have seen this conflict amongst many of your species (kiwis) and i believe it is a bit like the dr jekkyl and mr hyde syndrome afflicting you chappies.
no one can cure it, you simply have to refuse to drink the kool aid.
the choice is yours.
14 Sep 2012, 11:18 am
@Heavens Game-788:
Him, seems the Bok supporters with anger issues just dont learn.
HG, you do realise that on the rugby field, you cant really get away with bashing and violence like its a night out in a SA night club
14 Sep 2012, 11:18 am
@Heavens Game-788:
yep, because SA in all their proud history have won 9 times in NZ… only 9 times, with far better teams then the one lining up tomorrow..
the arrogant AB empire? hahaha who needs to be arrogant, when we’ve won twice as many games in your country as you have in ours, when out of the last 43 games played you guys have roughly a 33% win percentage, there is no arrogance needed from us kiwis..
we’re just trying to give you guys a hand up..
14 Sep 2012, 11:20 am
@poppa69-787: Knoblet, dont come with your amateur pretensions of movie critic grandeur. Your pseudo intellect dont impress me…. RWC 95 was a time when Rugby surpassed itself as a sport and became something more to a Nation, and the World… along with Tata Madiba.
That was what Invictus was about…
How dare you even try and pretend you understand past that myopic view that Rugby is only ever about an unchallengeable challenge and an AB jersey…
Rugby is more than that to other people and Nations… Invictus demonstrated that.
Not that you or other Haka obsessed Kiwis would understand… WOuld never in a million years think you sheepshaggers could.
14 Sep 2012, 11:20 am
Near 800 posts and the game has not started lol.
14 Sep 2012, 11:20 am
@Hurricane-790:
you ba s tar ds!
fact is it seems our 9′s need the extra 2 seconds more
@NZINCHINA-791:
you still hanging around?
14 Sep 2012, 11:21 am
@Hurricane-793: Fair honourable Smashmouth Rugby… The way Saffas have perfected it…
Not this Rugby League, devious touch rugby style that other winkies hanker after and change the laws continually to try and achieve.
14 Sep 2012, 11:22 am
In fact at times, I don’t think he’s returning serve so much as just constantly serving – keos kiwi version of goran ivanisovitch ekse – he doesn’t come here for the hunting.
14 Sep 2012, 11:22 am
@Hurricane-790: thats sacrilege Hurri..
Sir Brycie was indeed the best ref at 2011 WC, he deserved a gold watch I reckon..
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