Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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14 Sep 2012, 11:22 am
@poppa69-794: you are arrogant poopsie.
but you have chosen your path.
thats why 2009 hurt you more than 2010 hurt us.
becuase your esteem is tied up in knots.
lay off the kool aid
14 Sep 2012, 11:23 am
@rangerman-797:
hehe
Weepu takes 3 seconds just to bend down and pick it up.
But once he has it….look out.
I really dont thinkWeepu has played that bad of a game ever. He has the odd average but he is normally good enough to put the ABs on the front foot with his box kicks and strong run around the fringes.
14 Sep 2012, 11:25 am
@rangerman-785: Sista just can’t understand why people hate the Haka. It’s been around a lot longer than the Sharks have….
You know me, you should get it
The only time certain versions of the Haka irritated me, was during the WC….. Totally overdid it. You couldn’t breathe without a flash haka going down. Kind of killed the spirit of the true Haka for me, must be honest. (But I can understand why it went all ‘commercial’ at the time.
14 Sep 2012, 11:25 am
@poppa69-800:
lol
Damn where am i? Some South African hacked my comp.
14 Sep 2012, 11:25 am
@poppa69-794: “we’re just trying to give you guys a hand up”… lol…
This the “quiet confidence” that NZSlinkyChink was talking about?
Yup… Proof in the pudding…
The whole world will probably cheer should the massive underdogs knock supremely arrogant World Champs straight off their self elevated pedestal…
Fark… It would be schweet should the Green and Gold conquer all the odds:
14 Sep 2012, 11:25 am
@Heavens Game-795: hahaha I agree about 95 being more than just rugby, its why Madiba organised for SA to win it..
I wonder how many gold watches and tenderpreneuerships were handed out that we dont know about?
14 Sep 2012, 11:25 am
@poppa69-783: Jeesus, you are not all there. Now clearing the standing water has been added to your murky little box of theories. Are you getting enough sleep?
14 Sep 2012, 11:27 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-803:
Agree,over used.
But it was our chance to show the world that we get angry and pull faces
when we dance. Its not that romantic but maybe if they changed the music.
14 Sep 2012, 11:28 am
@Heavens Game-805: hees, and if SA do beat us, it will be our 1st loss in 14 games HG..
got to lose one eventually, but I think its a little better than winning 3 from 6.
what say you?
@rangerman-801: Im just having a laugh ranger, or cant I do that? as for 2009, its funny you mention that year and me being arrogant in the same post, dont you remember how you all talked and talked about new world orders and the like?
the thud ater 2010 was poetry in motion..
14 Sep 2012, 11:29 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-803: Don’t hate it, just think it’s gimmicky. Don’t even know why some people find it imposing or intimidating or get goosebumps or whatever…it’s not.
I think most people just find it freakin’ annoying that they’re so precious about it, & that those old lesbians at the IRB insist on opposing teams standing quietly and obediently while they do their X-factor routine…if opposing teams want to ignore it, or warm up, or walk up to them and face off, who the f uck cares? It’s a challenge for god’s sake, what’s the point of a challenge if you aren’t allowed to respond in any way you think will wind them up straight back?
14 Sep 2012, 11:30 am
@Hurricane-808: I’m thinking The Macarena….
14 Sep 2012, 11:31 am
@katman-807: its a joke katman, like Ive always said, the way you guys can tell tone on a blog is truly amazing.. I realise youre just too dumb to understand sarcasm, that s not my fault..
hahahaha have I got into your lil head that farkin much?
beautiful..
14 Sep 2012, 11:31 am
@Heavens Game-805:
Yep, that would be an awesome achievment if the Boks pull this one off.
But when you look at it closely,the ABs have not set the world on fire have they.
In patches we have looked awesome but alot of the times we have struggled to make
use of our advantages.
If we win, the you will jump back on the kill HM vibe.
If boks win, all of a sudden AB rugby is rubbish and Bok rugby is back on track.
Win/Win for you there HG.
14 Sep 2012, 11:31 am
@poppa69-806: You “agree”… lol Farkoff man…
What do you know other than a few squatting manoeuvres along to a fcked up pseudorhythm shouting gobbledygook which when translated go:
This is the hairy man
.Who caused the sun to shine again for me
Up the ladder, Up the ladder
Up to the top
The sun shines!
Which proves beyond doubt that you “hairy men” think the sun shines right out of your rugby backsides…
14 Sep 2012, 11:32 am
@Atreides-811:
lol
Thanks mate, but the macerena picks up the chicks, the Haka would not.
14 Sep 2012, 11:33 am
Yep 2009 was the start of things to come – new zealanders went into a flat out tail-spin after that, a one-off is one thing, but a clean sweep and pinetree literally laid one in his broek.
Problem with the boks was that in 2010 they had so many injuries and tgen in 2011 PDV had a major brainfart in dropping bismark for smit despite it being crystal clear who had become the best hooker in the world by daylight.
14 Sep 2012, 11:33 am
@poppa69-809: I say Hairy men and that sun they keep chanting about in the middle of a rugby field might just get knocked off their elevated pedestals,,,,
Farken arrogant farkers
14 Sep 2012, 11:34 am
@poppa69-812: With all due respect, I don’t think you know what a joke is. I don’t think you’ve ever told one and got it right. I suspect you fly off the handle when people don’t laugh at what you mean to be the punch line. So if you have to explain that something is a joke, the chances are you’re not telling it right.
14 Sep 2012, 11:35 am
@Hurricane-815: Bud given all the makeup, I don’t think it’s meant to pick up chicks….and considering it’s always performed for other dudes…..
14 Sep 2012, 11:35 am
2009 was a while ago now, when should we expect the next trophy from the Bokke, please no excuses just when?
14 Sep 2012, 11:36 am
@Heavens Game-814: nah, I prefer the ones that you guys dont know about..
the hakarenas that mention the south of france, that talk of wrestling and manshaming sharks, form the north island to the south, the ones that include a massive boom at the end of each foot stomp, the ones that talk of intrepid kiwi natives who trek to the deepst parts of Africa to teach the natives how to throw a rugby ball in cities like Durban
theyre the hakarenas I love…
14 Sep 2012, 11:36 am
@cab-816:
lol
So 2010 were the injuries, thats the reason why the Boks lost.
Now if my memory serves me right, didnt the ABs have alotof injuries in 2009?
I might check that up.
14 Sep 2012, 11:36 am
@Hurricane-808:
I can understand why it went commercial though. What music would you suggest? I’m thinking something with metal overtones…
@Atreides-810: I can honestly appreciate why people feel that way.
14 Sep 2012, 11:36 am
will you ever beat us without the filth, china?
maybe just once would be refreshing.
@poppa69-777:
ok, good to know.
so you’d troll along all the same then.
damned if we do, damned if we don’t is it…
@Hurricane-778:
as a kiwi you’re in no position ot talk about dirty play hurri
@Hurricane-782:
money talks hurri my old friend… money talks…
14 Sep 2012, 11:37 am
@Hurricane-813: Nope… Win or Lose Meyer in for the high jump because of the way he is farking around…
Certainly for me this is a hiatus until after the game.
Boks against AB’s in Hobbit land…
Farkit if trivialities get in between the underdogs knocking the Hairy Men right off their sunshining self elevated pedestal.
Heynek slaying can wait till Sunday after all babbelas and hangover is slept off.
14 Sep 2012, 11:38 am
Bakkies we’ll be beating you again in a few hours time.
14 Sep 2012, 11:38 am
@katman-818: hey, youre the one who made the assumption i was serious with it…
I understand though, to admit you may have misread my intention would mean owning up to being wrong, and we know you cant do that..
14 Sep 2012, 11:41 am
@Atreides-819:
Hmmm yeah performing to other guys seems to be the problem
@katman-818:
And here is Katman with his 2 cents ( 600 rand ) worth.
14 Sep 2012, 11:42 am
NZinChina – as soon as they start picking right and Bismarck and brussow and goosen are inserted into the starting lineup.
822 Hurricane – yes it’s difficult to tell but I think if everyone was fit and selected the Boks would win – look how many SA S15 sides are getting into tge playoffs these days – it’s inevitable that you will play 2nd fiddle soon.
14 Sep 2012, 11:42 am
So desparation and white flag waving has been changed for entrenching and hurling home-made hand grenades. I like that.
The sweeter the sweep.
14 Sep 2012, 11:45 am
@Hurricane-822: Forget it/ When Blacks lose, it’s always Blacks loss, period. When Boks lose – it’s their B, C, Z team, cuckoo coach, wrong tactics, wrong referee, wrong everything. Simple.
14 Sep 2012, 11:46 am
@Nils-830: Fark off you confused Latvian cabbage eater… This is rugby…
This is ABs vs Boks…
This aint Chess…
14 Sep 2012, 11:46 am
@cab-829:
lol
Super 15 has nothing to do with it. Look at Ozzie, they had what, 1 team in finals and yet they still give the Boks another pull down pants and slap it tell you cry its the refs fault game..
Mate beat Ozzie first please.
14 Sep 2012, 11:47 am
@Nils-830:
lol
14 Sep 2012, 11:47 am
yes and maybe one day you’ll do it cleanly, china
the filth you dish up on a rugby filed is not worth watching otherwise save for my team playing.
14 Sep 2012, 11:48 am
@Heavens Game-832: Thank God, it’s not chess, you okes would whinge after every taken piece.
14 Sep 2012, 11:50 am
@Nils-831:
Yeah i should forget it, but i can see so much potential in some of these bloggers. I am trying to help them see that if the Boks lose, it because they lost to the better team.
I believe the last time the boks lost to a better team was……. ummmmm…was……..
14 Sep 2012, 11:50 am
833 huricane
yeah that’s exactly why I was crying cos so many bulls were selected that ain’t made it into the playoff – tge side that came top of the whole comp contributed about 3 players and the one had just returned from 6m layoff – u heard it here first I’m just preparing u for what is inevitable.
14 Sep 2012, 11:50 am
ummmm it was……. just about got it….ummmmmm
14 Sep 2012, 11:51 am
ummmm it was in …….. i think it was at training when they beat themselves.
14 Sep 2012, 11:51 am
@Nils-836:
14 Sep 2012, 11:52 am
Cab the sooner the better all this coulda shoulda woulda stuff is getting a little repetitive year after year.
Bakkies yes what we are going to beat you in a few hours?
14 Sep 2012, 11:52 am
@Nils-831: you mean like port elizabeth last year? whereby the full strength bok side beat a B team Abs by 18-5 and should really have lost if that B AB team had converted their chances..
lets not get into cheating TMO’s, the SA ones dont exist, aye bakkies?
14 Sep 2012, 11:52 am
@Heavens Game-825: A few ways this could play out, given what we’ve seen;
Most likely: The forwards fail to establish dominance, halfbacks under constant pressure, no front foot ball and they counterruck us through our own a rses. Slow predictable service from Ruan as he and Steyn and Kirchner kick all our ball away, struggle to find touch and give them endless opportunities to run at us. ABs niggle Flip into giving away penalties or YC. Multiple turnovers as Francois Louw struggles in vain to compete against AB counterrucks. Reserves are used only in the last 10 to 12 minutes, and fail to turn the tide. ABs by 15+
Less likely; Forwards establish parity up front, close contest in the rucks but ABs gain ascedancy in last 30. Attacking kicks give us good territory but struggle to manufacture tries. Goosen and Lambie come on with 20 to 25 minutes left and even things up with some promising attacks, maybe even tries. Abs by 5 or less
Least likely; Forwards establish dominance at collision point, giving halfbacks time to use attacking kicks to good advantage for first 40-50. Boks show huge improvement in protecting ruck ball. Hougaard switches to SH for 2nd half & combines well with Goosen & Lambie early in the 2nd, keeping ball in hand and use forward dominance to break the advantage line and pressure the ABs for the last 30. Boks by 5
14 Sep 2012, 11:53 am
@cab-838: is this a repeat post from before the world cup cab?
or after 2009?
it seems so familiar thats all
14 Sep 2012, 11:54 am
@Nils-836:
lol
Its not fair, the Kiwis chair is higher than mine…waaaaaa.
14 Sep 2012, 11:54 am
@Hurricane-837: Nothing will ever change, Hurri. Just 2 scenarios tomorrow: either (most probably) there will be another wave of whinge or (if somehow Boks pull an upset) we will have a gloating of biblical proportions.
So Blacks better win by a plenty, I prefer the first option.
14 Sep 2012, 11:56 am
@Hurricane-837: Better team at present… Maybe.
Better heritage… NEVER.
You farkers were still playing Poofball and writhing on the floor in mock pain when the Springbokken were off conquering the British Isles…
Your forebearers had to learn the hard way still in the “friendly” matches in North Arica during WW2 when you okes werent getting fckedup in Gallipoli or running away from other fights when the Jerries also laughed at that silly dance before battle…
Naah… You okes need to be knocked right off your arrogant pedestal… If not tomorrow then some time in the near future definitely.
14 Sep 2012, 11:57 am
@Nils-847: imagine if the World champions actually win tomorrow, would they be the first team crowned champions to actually live up to the title
14 Sep 2012, 11:57 am
filth china, filth..?..
you know this, why act confused?
i’d love to see the ab’s do it one day though.
i think the cloest they came to attempting to see if they could win a cleanish game was against ireland and look how that turned out.
you people are filthy, boet
deal with it
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