Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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13 Sep 2012, 08:18 am
Still feel this Kiwi team not that flash…..
We should not be so bloody fear filled…..that head space is killing this Bok team….
Go out there and its 15 against 15….
Scrums crucial….just praying J D P is 100%…..if so and we hold our own it is game on….
13 Sep 2012, 08:19 am
Yawn
13 Sep 2012, 08:22 am
@poppa69-40:
Interesting stat…
SA’s top three Super Rugby teams (those who made it through to the play offs) had a 45% win rate against NZ teams in 2012.
If we consider away games in NZ, that drops to a 28% success rate.
When I said at the start of this competition that SA can best hope to end second and that will be a decent result (given new coach, new players etc and SR results) it wasn’t well received by some.
How people expect the Boks and Meyer to perform miracles (comparing to All Blacks) when our SR teams can’t even do it is sometimes beyond me.
13 Sep 2012, 08:23 am
@NZINCHINA-49:
I see your i_love_u_bakkies, and raise you one poppa69.
13 Sep 2012, 08:23 am
@grant10-51:
I agree, this AB team is far from great. Still the best of the bunch, but far from the dominant force it was in the last couple of years.
13 Sep 2012, 08:23 am
PA agreed the true world’s best is the team that wins the most year in year out, WC for revenue mostly for the old boys.
13 Sep 2012, 08:24 am
you mean Bakkies has been posting articles about Whatever?
strange, I thought the way most Saffas live on the North shore showed how they are willing to integrate into NZ soviety, rather than create a little “New Capetown” enclave…
I wonder what his mates attitude was when he moved to NZ and just how hard he tried to assimilate..
if he had the attitude of Bakkies, then it would be no real wonder he got his come uppance..
13 Sep 2012, 08:26 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-44:
Its kinda weird how certain teams are pegged with certain tags like the French are dirty farkers…the Abs are cheating mongrels…the Poms are whingers….the Samoans are headhunters and the Bok are ? clumsy perhaps. These tags will always follow different teams and supporters will always try to defend their own or attack the oppositions supposed characteristics…..the nature of the beast and may I add there is a hind of validity in some of those traits.So my friend keep up the good work, and keeping it real.
13 Sep 2012, 08:26 am
@poppa69-47:
i may be comical sure, but none of it is untrue. which is unfortunate, because rugby’s the loser.
which is sad, not pathetic.
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-48:
is that some sort of two shades of grey sexual reference?
13 Sep 2012, 08:26 am
Oh ye of little faith. (Except you Bakkies;-)
Boks by 5
13 Sep 2012, 08:27 am
@grant10-51:
agreed granty, i think we can take them with an almighty effort and a little luck.
13 Sep 2012, 08:29 am
What happened to the Aaron Smith thread? I had some good stuff on there…..waste my time.
13 Sep 2012, 08:30 am
pull the other one china
nothing i said was untrue
the problem is with you not me
13 Sep 2012, 08:30 am
@PissAnt-53: that is an interesting stat, I do wonder if it has gone up over the last 3-4 years though?
I know SA have only had something like 9 wins in NZ, but that is probably still a lot more then any other team… the amount of injuries, some strange omissions and what I think is your biggest problem, a lack of leadership amongst the forwards will imo keep that stat at the same level it is..
It is also the ABs first test at Forsyth barr, so think they will want to maintain the dominance we have had over SA in Dunedin..
but sport can be a funny thing, and I for one will be as nervous as always when the game starts..
13 Sep 2012, 08:30 am
I don’t really buy into Meyers thinking on not playing the guy because his 1st test is away against the AB’s. If he had the luxury of time on his side then yes! The imcumbent flyhalf is not a Dan Carter who might be winding down his career. The fact is he has a problem at flyhalf & he is not prepared to try something different. If he’s so worried about Goosen why not Lambie???? I think Meyer talks with forked tongue.
13 Sep 2012, 08:31 am
Soviety
Thanks Pops
Word of the day
13 Sep 2012, 08:31 am
@WP-Forever-54: I dislike the comparison
13 Sep 2012, 08:33 am
No Carter
No SBW
weepu in place of Aaron Smith who overslept….
Locks are okay but no Thorne…..
Hore is now 33 years old….
Come on Boks man….this is doable….
13 Sep 2012, 08:37 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-59: No traces of mommy porn on my bookshelf Bakkies. I would rather read last nights T20 scoresheet over and over again to be honest.
@Stormtrooper-65: Meyer has contradicted himself from Day 1. His very first interview was a patchwork of bull cr a p. I’m still surprised most didn’t see it then.
13 Sep 2012, 08:38 am
The Boks B side need to win to prove the RWC was fixed.
13 Sep 2012, 08:39 am
@poppa69-64:
In 2011 (Bulls, Sharks, Stormers) won 33% of their games in NZ
2010 by far SA’s best year playing in NZ, won 72% of their games – Stormers 100% (Chiefs and Blues), Sharks 68% (Hurricanes and Highlanders – lost against Saders) and Bulls 50% (beat Blues, lost against Chiefs). Was also the year Bulls beat the Stormers in the final.
So it actually went down from 2010 to 2012.
Meyer is not without fault here I agree – some strange selections at times and currently, zero leadership amongst forwards which leaves me a bit disappointed with Adriaan Strauss to be honest – he hasn’t stepped up.
13 Sep 2012, 08:40 am
@cab-70: Bok B side? hahaha get them excuses in early Cab..
sad that Saffa supporters are now using the “Big Hit” defense..
how the mighty have fallen..
are their any real men left in Africa?
13 Sep 2012, 08:40 am
There is a number of players who can take us to world cup glory but will be wasted because of coaches thinking their are special/versatile/utilities
Pat lambie
Johan goosen
Elton jantjies
Paul jordaan
Francois hougaard
Jaco taute
Sya kolisi
Juan de jong
Still under25 yet already under appreciated
13 Sep 2012, 08:41 am
honestly SARU has to be realistic about this, its easy to say fire henieken but then who do you replace him with as much as the boks have been battling and dont get me wrong im not a Henieken fan at all but just seems like the boks have no motivation and look tired and worn out, is it a matter or playing too much rugby ? or is it just lack of a game plan that makes it seem that way ? excited to see Weepu though says that the AB’s will be playing more construction and running rugby
13 Sep 2012, 08:41 am
ha was no “mate” of mine pops, but i find his story to be saddening. a born and bred capesader all black jersey wearing type who took his whole family over there because he was a 2nd class citizen here who experienced many instances of his dignity being taken from him, in front of his wife even, only to end up having a bad racial abuse experience of/in nz. his kids also struggled to assimilate as well.
he got phukked over in life on all sides, thats tough.
however, i only posted the story in response to a post about abuse of a capesader who was peed on here and thought it worth sharing. i am in no way knowledgeable enough about the vast majority of expat saffas experiences of assimilating into nz society. was just highliting a few bad ones.
this happens in many places in the world and not just new zealand. we still have a lot of growing to do.
13 Sep 2012, 08:43 am
@Te Rangatira-58:
cheers tr, and the same to you.
i firmly believe we’d all be better off for the spectacle if the irb/sanzr could make genuine efforts to reform the refereeing aspect of the game.
13 Sep 2012, 08:43 am
@Stormtrooper-65: No excuse that Meyer offers for not kicking Steyn’s backside will hold water. He is biased. There is no clarity of thought.
I say it again – how he could think that he is going to make any headway with an outdated gameplan that did not work for PDV and the Bulls of late is absolutely beyond me.
The Boks will come out tomorrow with all guns blazing – they will tackle like demons and harrass the Blacks into mistakes and may even score a try as a result, but then the steam will run out and the Blacks’ game will kick in and its over red rover. Especially in the light of the yellow card that one of our forwards will undoubtedly be shown – probably Flip.
13 Sep 2012, 08:44 am
@Tsalieb-74: funny how Kiwis dont look tired and worn out
13 Sep 2012, 08:45 am
@Dawn-66:
hahahha
fruedian slip of the month
classic
13 Sep 2012, 08:45 am
@PissAnt-71: interesting, is that more due to NZs new brigade coming through or because of the old guard of SA leaving?
I still think that before say 2008 the overall stats would be on the increase, even allowing for the fluctuations per year… surely a positive overall?
the win in Dunedin was the Boks first in ten years wasnt it? psychologically that must have helped..
13 Sep 2012, 08:46 am
@PissAnt-41:
Hope does that equate to judge me at the world cup?
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-48:
Yussuf was horrid.
13 Sep 2012, 08:46 am
@Blokkies-60:
hear hear
13 Sep 2012, 08:47 am
Poppa
all the real men are left in Africa, look at Houston who loves Bakkies, that is man-love of tge highest quality.
If Big Hit says it’s a bok B side then I feel in esteemed company cos he is a great Kenner.
13 Sep 2012, 08:49 am
@WP-Forever-54:
Indeed.
A queen always beats a knave.
13 Sep 2012, 08:49 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-75:
Not again
13 Sep 2012, 08:50 am
@grant10-78:
yip
they’ve been given scare in almost all of their test this year.
if boks go in with a ‘we’re winning this test’ attitude and talke a lead up to the 60/65 min mark they’ll start to break metally and push thing where its not on.
we can do it.
13 Sep 2012, 08:50 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-69:
mkay…
13 Sep 2012, 08:50 am
@poppa69-80:
No doubt it has improved. The Dunedin win was huge, and the win in sleepy hollow (Hamilton) in 2009 to win the 3N even bigger.
Can be a combination of things – since 2009 the old guard got older but no wiser, focus shifted to RWC (*spit*) and little focus on continuity.
Problem with SA Rugby is we don’t like to build on what was left – we prefer to break it down completely and start from scratch again every time there is a new coach. We love 4-year cycles which does little for talent identification and development.
13 Sep 2012, 08:52 am
@Dawn-85:
i was specifically responding to a post he made…?..
i do not intend to chat about it.
13 Sep 2012, 08:54 am
Here we go again, another kick chase battle from the Boks.
Morne is ****, Nonu has run through him many times before and will do it again
Kichner is also ****, not and international 15, no X factor at the back.
All Black Loose Forwards far superior.
Cruden in the form of his life on the dry ground of Dunedin he will rip up.
Result? Blacks by 15, too much speed to the breakdown will produce quick ball and backs way to good.
When are the boks going to figure out that to beat the All Blacks you need to have more than a kick chase game??
Bloodbath coming up for you Bokee supproters in Dunedin.
13 Sep 2012, 08:54 am
@PissAnt-88:
agreed mostly, but not quite true considering we for all intents and purposes went through an 8 year cycle wrt the previous coaching regimes.
13 Sep 2012, 08:56 am
If I were the Bok coach i’d have Lambie at 10 right now, or at least Goosen at 10 and Lambie at 15.
What does Lambie have to do to get in there??????? He is quality and has X factor.
13 Sep 2012, 08:56 am
@gunther-81:
I hope not bud – it goes against what he set out to do.
13 Sep 2012, 08:57 am
@PissAnt-88: yep. 2009 was proof positive that Dunedin wasnt a mere fluke..
succession planning is what I think also keeps the ABs at or near the top of the pile… after 2007 we lost quite a lot of players overseas
13 Sep 2012, 08:59 am
This is the way I see this game going:
The Boks will come out all guns blazing. We will be on par at the collision in the 1st quarter.
Frans Steyn will get 1 or 2 long range kicks which he manages to convert.
Then the AB’s start coming at us in the 2nd quarter. But we hold on but unfortunately they eventually break the seal in the 35th minute with a try.
I don’t know what happens in the second half……….
13 Sep 2012, 09:01 am
@Jeraldjay-95:
Get a bigger crystal ball that shows 80 minutes.
13 Sep 2012, 09:02 am
depending on how well the boks start will determine how big the margin will be
and make no mistake, 12 point loss would be a great result for the boks
ABs could tear into us early and it could become embarrassing
13 Sep 2012, 09:03 am
Romano, read, weepu, cruden and savea are distinctly ordinary.
Mccaw, Hore and woodcock are distinctly old.
Can this poorly-selected injury-depleted Bok side do it thru sheer guts ?
13 Sep 2012, 09:04 am
@Jeraldjay-95:
Ask the fortune teller for your money back Jerry.
13 Sep 2012, 09:06 am
@cab-98: gees, and yet most think this AB team even with all those ordinary and old players will still be too good..
what does that say about the Boks?
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