Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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14 Sep 2012, 13:06 pm
@rangerman-948: yeah, I should concentrate my filth at your president, following your example huh angelman?
14 Sep 2012, 13:07 pm
@cane-946:
14 Sep 2012, 13:08 pm
@rangerman-947: Eish… Just when we having fun and thinking the old Poops back out comes the rape “humour”…
Next its AIDS…
Farkenhell man…
14 Sep 2012, 13:09 pm
Oooops I see Popps has logged off.
That leaves little old me……………………………………alone against a Continent of belligerents.
Or should that be alone against incontinents.
Whatever.
14 Sep 2012, 13:12 pm
@cane-954: haha, i am not incontinent though it did happen once at varsity after a two day binging session.
14 Sep 2012, 13:13 pm
@poppa69-951: Go for it “Bravest of the Brave”… Give it a good shot…
Pop in a few good words about Madiba why dont you now?
Fark, you okes are in more dire need of coming down a few pegs than a room full of Fa’afafines doing the Hakarena waiting for a real man…
Maybe tomorrow.
14 Sep 2012, 13:13 pm
Joh.
Som much of anger here.
14 Sep 2012, 13:13 pm
@Hurricane-790: Good man.Good post.
Can anyone tell me where the Morris dance originated?Agree withSharks Pedigree on enjoying Haka.. Also agree with Ranger that it has
become stylised.Does anyone remember Mike Brewers attempt
to intimidate Ruben Kruger Immediately after the haka in 1995?
“I,ve got your number” he said.Ruben just gave him his quiet smile and proceeded to play him out of the game.
14 Sep 2012, 13:16 pm
@poppa69-951: our president is an actual doos.
like you really.
but i dont hate, i pity
14 Sep 2012, 13:17 pm
I see Keo’s current “Poll”,
offers several options for the winning margin.
I for one will not be voting.
Nowhere do I see 30 plus NZ.
14 Sep 2012, 13:17 pm
@ryecatcher-958: good comment rye, thanks for your input about brewer.
i was unaware of that but i do remember wiese wanting to get stuck in.
apparently he made the abs poop in the pants.
14 Sep 2012, 13:18 pm
they blamed it on the waitress who served them the prawns of course.
14 Sep 2012, 13:18 pm
which is fair enough, who wants to admit that another man made you poop in your pants?
especially afer doing a dancy dance in front of aforementioned man?
14 Sep 2012, 13:21 pm
@cane-960: A little slow there mate?? 15+ does take the 30′s into account.
14 Sep 2012, 13:24 pm
@Heavens Game-953: He’s in fine fettle tonight, must be hitting the sauce hard….feel sorry for Mrs Pooper tonight
14 Sep 2012, 13:24 pm
@cane-960: Lol easy now…..the japies might push you guys harder than you think.
14 Sep 2012, 13:26 pm
South Africa
Embattled Boks kicking on
Fri, 14 Sep 2012 11:07
PrevNextSpringbok assistant coach John McFarland has reaffirmed that South Africa would not alter their conservative game plan.
The Springboks’ kick-and-chase approach under Heyneke Meyer has yielded one loss, one defeat and one draw and has seen them stutter through the inaugural Rugby Championship.
With conditions a non-issue at the roofed Forsyth Barr Stadium, Saturday’s fourth round clash against New Zealand was considered an ideal opportunity for the Springboks to get their backline involved and create chances for their outside backs.
McFarland, however, said South Africa would stick to their traditional strengths.
“We will always try to get our speedsters into the game when the opportunity is there and we’re in the right position on the field,” McFarland said in a questions-and-answers session on the team’s official website.
“These days, wings must also go looking for work and run support lines on the inside as it’s getting more difficult to spread the ball wide as most teams drift very well on defence at this level.”
Defending their 10-man approach, McFarland noted, “If you watched at the weekend, our three best attacking chances came from contestable kicks which we won back and then basically you are playing 15 players on one.
“Having said that, up until now we have the highest percentage of kick regains in the Castle Rugby Championship and we have not kicked as much as the Wallabies or Pumas in our recent Tests. Even the All Blacks kicked more in Sydney than what we did in Perth.”
He said that much analysis goes into the formation of their strategy. “I’ve been to the USA before to visit NFL teams and learn from them. We analyse everything to the smallest detail and ensure we get the core messages across to the players.”
McFarland added that they are not concerned about the lack of experience in their pack and would look to dominate the All Blacks up front.
“Every game comes down to collision domination and it’s important that we have a mindset to be physical and aggressive. I believe it you’re good enough you’re old enough and we certainly have the players that can do the job for us this weekend
14 Sep 2012, 13:28 pm
@sharks_lover-964:
I am a little slow Shark shagger.
I can’t help that.
It’s just that 15+ does not do justice to what is going to happen tomorrow.
14 Sep 2012, 13:31 pm
Gdam and still they persist with the kicking – they’ve got their analysis all wrong somehow if they honestly believe that is how all teams are playing to win.
Maybe they must get maar smacked to kingdom come.
14 Sep 2012, 13:31 pm
@Atreides-966:
I’m counting on it.
We are 22 in a row at home.
Please god………………………….someone end this torture.
Anyone but The Bokke , that is.
14 Sep 2012, 13:31 pm
@Heavens Game-848: Not nice.We raised the white flag at Torbruk.Albeit a handful of us when
promised reinforcfements and equipment did not arrive.Ordered to
defend at all costs against impossible odds.Truth only now coming out.
Dan Pienaar.Obliquely related to my wife.Anzacs very brave at Gallipoli.Still
celebrated annually.
14 Sep 2012, 13:32 pm
ok, i am out.
i certainly hope poops is too or he will be tearing his house apart in about 45 mins.
i also hope his rapist comment wasnt a case of projection, seriously.
go bokke!
and to all the kiwis out there, enjoy the game.
14 Sep 2012, 13:36 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-861: The Anzac
contribution was immense,particularly ahainst ****..As was ours in North Africa.
14 Sep 2012, 13:37 pm
***=Japanese
14 Sep 2012, 13:37 pm
@cane-970: Your first 3 sentences: from your lips to god’s ears lol
14 Sep 2012, 13:38 pm
I never really understood that fond rememberance for war **** with all it’s mawkish reverence – but I was watching a show on BBC when this comedian oke traces both of his grandpappies experience through The Great War – I guess ppl want to believe the greatest sacrifice was not paid in vain.
14 Sep 2012, 13:39 pm
Just got a feeling we going to come good tomorrow…..strange but true…
14 Sep 2012, 13:41 pm
@cab-976:
Was that one of those “Who Do You Think You Are” programs cab.
Because they are excellent.
14 Sep 2012, 13:41 pm
@ryecatcher-973:
take it easy, rye
never said it wasn’t a meaningful contribution but you’d think they won the farken for us all going on what they say. or rather the way they say it.
****. = ?
14 Sep 2012, 13:42 pm
@grant10-977:
Deluded……………………………………..but WTF.
14 Sep 2012, 13:44 pm
@rangerman-972:
Did he just call you a rapist?????
What’s up with that?
OK Pops. Overstepped the line …… again.
14 Sep 2012, 13:44 pm
@cane-978:
in your case it woud be ‘so you think you can dance?’…
14 Sep 2012, 13:45 pm
@poppa69-951:
Get back here you bigbek kiwi coward
How dare you call one of the bloggers a rapist.
14 Sep 2012, 13:47 pm
Yep that’s it cane – guy this week Is a funny English comedian – luvs his rugby too – but you can see how much all that stuff means to them -I dunno.
14 Sep 2012, 13:47 pm
@grant10-967:
What a load of cerulean tinged cr@p! No matter how much you practise it, regaining a kick will always be 50/50.
Can’t they get it into their thick skulls.
And getting yoyr inspiration from a bunch of farking yank gridiron pr.ic.ks. The most uninventive, unimaginitive, boring sport ever.
FFS get rid of these jokers!
14 Sep 2012, 13:47 pm
“945.poppa69 said:
14 Sep 2012, 13:02 pm
@rangerman-941: good, because Ill keep saying it… seems you guys dont like it either huh rapist?”
Saved for the moderator.
14 Sep 2012, 13:48 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-982:
I can’t dance Bakkies.
but neither can Morne.
14 Sep 2012, 13:50 pm
@grant10-967:
John Macfarland? Should be John Macfarfetched. Thinks because the cerulean taureans were thick enough to sponsor him a trip to USA, he no knows his d.ick from a candlestick.
14 Sep 2012, 13:52 pm
@cane-980: LOL….Maybe….but I seen this movie before Cane….
Beware the wounded Bok my man….
14 Sep 2012, 13:56 pm
@TooMuchRugby-988: LOL
Frustrating times for a lot of us …
Hope the home leg will see some change of personnel and strategy….
Or am I being over optimistic?
14 Sep 2012, 13:58 pm
@cab-984:
I think I may have seen this very same episode cab.
This is a history lesson on a most personal level.
A masterpiece of the realities of personal circumstance of the time.
14 Sep 2012, 14:02 pm
@grant10-990:
Haha, I think i just burst a vein.
Unfortunately I’m not so optimistic. It seems to me that this idea is so ingrained in the heads of the whole coaching team that it’s going to take an intervention to make them change.
Listening to the kicking coach talikng on Boots last night you couls see that they have bought into the idea big time. He was only considering how to improve the the kick and chase but chose to be in denial about actually questioning the whole approach.
14 Sep 2012, 14:05 pm
@TooMuchRugby-985:
pipe down plank.
american football is all about strategy and analysis.
if you don’t understand an article rather just sit in the corner mumbling quietly to yourself.
ok?
14 Sep 2012, 14:05 pm
Main odds Makers put it firmly on the ABs to win it at 1:9
Some pundits put it even higher, a great opportunity for someone who’s prepare to risk R3,000
14 Sep 2012, 14:06 pm
I noticed JdV has a new highlighted strands, he must have visited a beauty salon at Dunedin?
14 Sep 2012, 14:09 pm
@Hondo-994:
R3000?
have you been saving your food stamps again?
14 Sep 2012, 14:10 pm
The 1000 is coming up.
But you Saffa’s are so busy navel gazing a kiwi will take the 1000.
14 Sep 2012, 14:10 pm
yes 1000
14 Sep 2012, 14:11 pm
yes
14 Sep 2012, 14:11 pm
1000
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