Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks

Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks

RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.

Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.

Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.

The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.

I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.

Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.

How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.

I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.

Prediction: All Blacks by 12

All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.

Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.


1,091 Comments

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  • 1001.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment

    @cane-987:
    hehe

    be funny if morne dances the phark outta the blacks tomorrow.

  • 1002.Dawn: Reply to this comment

    @cane-1000:

    Highlight of your day

  • 1003.cane: Reply to this comment

    @Hondo-995:

    I thought Jean spoke very well Hondo.

    Very well.

  • 1004.ryecatcher: Reply to this comment

    Somebody here said that they were mocking us on Re-Union.
    How I hope that we give them a klap of monumental proportions.
    Did not see show,but if true shows up the “We respect you” from
    NZ bloggers here.

  • 1005.cane: Reply to this comment

    @Dawn-1002:

    Not really Dawn…………………………………………………..not since Skim made himself scarce.

    Skim was King.

  • 1006.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment

    @ryecatcher-1004:
    i would rather stick black mans sized ***** up my arse than listen to that sanctimonius twat and whoever he has on thier with him.

    kak show

    i never watch it

    let them say what they like.

  • 1007.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment

    d i l d o

  • 1008.rossoneri: Reply to this comment

    So 3% of you think the Boks are going to beat the Ab’s by 15 points or more? :lol:

    Please forward whatever it is you are smoking. After watching Louis Koen’s interview on kicking last night I gave up that Meyer has anything but robots assisting them. They all say the same thing: MENTAL TOUGHNESS, THE CHASERS MUST USE THE OPPORTUNATY CREATED BY THE KICK! GA!

    I cannot wait for this game tomorrow morning. I am counting the hours.

  • 1009.cane: Reply to this comment

    @ryecatcher-1004:

    We are due a reality check Ryeman.

    But hey…………………………………………………..I hope it’s not from you Guys.

  • 1010.Atreides: Reply to this comment

    @Dawn-983: Maybe cos he’s a steaming pile of s hit?

  • 1011.rossoneri: Reply to this comment

    @ryecatcher-1004: I watched the show. They were just saying that the Boks are one dimentional, and play an illogical game. Nothing we don’t say ourselves. TJ just mentioned that Meyer is getting stick from Saffas. Also, they mentioned that if they were Bok supporters they would be tearing their hair out watching the Boks play that Blue Bulls super rugby game.

  • 1012.cane: Reply to this comment

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-1006:

    Easy Bakkies …………………………………..easy.
    take a deep breathe.

    They are only expressing an opinion.

  • 1013.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment

    @cane-1012:
    i know caner, i shouldn’t let it bother me.

    honest to god i must have watched a few small parts of that show on two three occasions in total for my entire life. its just that snide little kiwi way of theirs and the way they say things that puts me right off.

    i dont know if it was a coincidence but every one of those three times i have watched a few minutes of it that tony johnston doos had something smart to say about sa.

  • 1014.rossoneri: Reply to this comment

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-1006: You are too one eyed Bakkies. You are like a parent looking at their fat kid and telling her that she’ll be more beautiful than Heidi Klum or something, when in truth the child looks like that horrendous Bobby Christina child of Whitney’s. :lol:

  • 1015.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment

    @rossoneri-1014:
    hehe one eyed you say…

    i’ve seen that kid, flip
    i dont think even her mother ever told her she looks like heidi klum :grin:
    thats kids got a future, but it aint gonna be in show business.

  • 1016.Jeez: Reply to this comment

    The irony is that HM thinks the boks should stick to their ‘strengths’ – dominate up front and kick for territory/put pressure on the opposition. The joke is that the boks’ forwards have been struggling for the past 5 games to lay a solid platform! And he still believes that this almighty ‘strength’ they are capable of is still good enough to beat the world’s best! They say the game is won up front, but if both teams forwards are equally solid what then???

    But i reckon the comments on this blog will stay more or less the same until HM says those pretty words: I was wrong! I am sorry my plan did not work. We will have to adapt and start playing a game that will enable us to be competitive.

    If this continues, I doubt he’ll make it for 2 years.

    Was the criticism this bad when PDV coached?????? It seems to be so much worse… And HM has only lost one game so far…

  • 1017.rossoneri: Reply to this comment

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-1015: hAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Yoh sy is lelik! Bobby Brown ruined that child with a big forehead and gap teeth. All the plastic surgery in the world is not going to repair that disaster.

  • 1018.TooMuchRugby: Reply to this comment

    @gunther-993: Do you actually have anything meaningful to say about the subject matter (rugby)?
    No wonder American football seems like the ultimate in strategy and analysis to you.
    Besides, it is exactly this over-emphasis on “analysis” that is turning rugby into such a boring cr@pshow, ala Bulls rugby

  • 1019.Finfan: Reply to this comment

    HM is going to surprise everyone tomorrow, most of all the ABs. This is all just a clever ploy and his run-on side tomorrow will include Goosen, De Jongh and Lambie. The ABs will be so stunned that they’re going to forget how to do the Haka. The Boks will score five tries, HM will be our hero, it will be a great weekend and we’ll all live happily ever after…

  • 1020.TooMuchRugby: Reply to this comment

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-1015:
    What respectable Bulls supporter would even know what Whitney Houston’s child looks like?

  • 1021.The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food: Reply to this comment

    @Jeez-1016: Must be honest (and I hope Bakkies closes his eyes and blocks his ears round about now…) having listened to MacFarland and Koen both talk this week, as well as reading all of Meyer’s latest ‘declarations’, I am feeling rather despondent.
    Can’t help it.

    A miraculous backs against the wall win tommorrow would simply stem the tide of unhappiness for a little while – nothing more. We so badly need a little shot of hope, and obviously a good performance tommorrow would give us that – but at what cost? Heyneke barking that at last the players have done what he has asked them etc?

    Damn, for the players and the fans a good step out is essential. For the lyingfucklersinthecoachingbox…. I wish no success.

    Torn I am.

    Go the Boks but fukkof Meyer?

  • 1022.The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food: Reply to this comment

    @Finfan-1019: And what happens when we wake up?

  • 1023.gunther: Reply to this comment

    @Finfan-1019:

    Luister nicely now plank.

    If you don’t like to understand something than rather shut up.

    Many coaches study other codes to gain a different analytical perspective.

    It has nothing to do with this or that gameplan.

    Sheesus but you are thick.

    Thick like a doorstop.

  • 1024.Finfan: Reply to this comment

    @gunther-1023: I always thought you had a sense of humour ;)

  • 1025.TooMuchRugby: Reply to this comment

    @gunther-1023:
    There he goes again. Die Gemaskerde Sopdrol” Ridiculing all in his way.
    I still don’t see any intelligent comment about rugby forthcoming from you.

  • 1026.Finfan: Reply to this comment

    @The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-1022: You will come to your senses and rush out to buy yourself a Sharks jersey.

  • 1027.Jeez: Reply to this comment

    @The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-1021:

    I agree. Failing could just be the best thing the boks can do right now… because luckily its early enough for HM to become desperate after enough failure… Every coach has his breaking point…. Especially a bok coach!

    Poor PDV wanted to play a more expansive game, but after a game or twho adopted to a more conservative,structured gameplan. It suited the players back then, but after a short while of success the game changed and it was too late for PDV to change and adopt again.

    Hopefully the exact opposite will happen with HM. Fail from the start and adapt to survive. He wont be granted the same amount of time as PDV…. fail, fail, fail, pressure, adapt, evolve win win win…. How long will the failing last? Will he be sacked or will he think outside the box to save his job?

  • 1028.gunther: Reply to this comment

    @Finfan-1024:
    Spare the rod and spoil the plank.

    :lol:

    @TooMuchRugby-1025:

    Please point me to your intelligent comments on the article Gwantie posted.

    Give us something to work with.

    Hmmm no?

    Nothing?

    I thought not.

  • 1029.gunther: Reply to this comment

    @TooMuchRugby-1020:

    Do you think you are the only bonehead with access to the interweb?

    :lol:

  • 1030.ryecatcher: Reply to this comment

    @rossoneri-1011: Thanks.Withdraw ugliness from comment
    and apologise for any subsequent furore.OK Cane??

  • 1031.trupisero: Reply to this comment

    @Finfan-1019: dan’s jy poesdronk verby…

  • 1032.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment

    @TooMuchRugby-1020:
    i follow the news and read about whitney houston’s death and the kid was featured.
    also, i think i may have been around when my other half was watcing oprah or dr phil or ellen degenerate and the kid was on at the time, i think.

  • 1033.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment

    @The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-1021:
    this sort of thing will only make you sad in the end.
    meyer will lift the boks to new heights and where that leave you when the faithful supporters are celebrating the boks success in the soon to be future?

  • 1034.trupisero: Reply to this comment

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-1033: The biggest problem is HM bullshitting everyone. If he is rebuilding and has a 4 year plan, say so, not that every game is a must win, blahblahblah…..

    His gameplan is 10 years out of date and he refuses to change…well, playing that kak and expecting different results is stupid. Maybe, being a bull, he is a bit slow on learning…..

    I feel bad for the players, fukkall for the coaching team.

  • 1035.The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food: Reply to this comment

    @i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-1033: Meyer himself is the only one who can restore any faith. He has done fuckall to make me think he is capable of doing this….
    He seems to become more obstinate, untruthful and conservative the more pressure he is under….

  • 1036.TooMuchRugby: Reply to this comment

    @gunther-1028:
    American football may claim that they use use a lot of analysis and strategy, and it may even be true.
    Fact is, it’s still one of the most boring spectacles you would ever lay your eyes on.
    If McFarfetched and HM gets their strategies and approach from gridiron, then it explains why our rugby has become such bullocks to look at.
    IMO they are overanalising everything and trying to adapt the analytical approach to support their ill-conceived, ineffectual gameplan.
    HM and co can analyse how much they want, but if they don’t have the common sense to apply it correctly, it doesn’t mean squat.

  • 1037.gunther: Reply to this comment

    @TooMuchRugby-1036:

    I just told you.

    It isn’t about strategies.

    It’s about using analysis, training diet fitness all of that.

    When Naas went to Gridiron he said they were 30 years ahead of everybody else in the approach.

    Are we clear now or should I draw you a picture?

    And if you think we over analyse then bear in mind that the leading rugby stats company is from new zealand.

  • 1038.Jeez: Reply to this comment

    @TooMuchRugby-1036:
    And dont even mention the 788 000 orders he bellows ,to who knows who, on his walkietalkie! Its frightening how much control this guy tries to have on how they play.

  • 1039.TooMuchRugby: Reply to this comment

    @gunther-1037:
    I’m sure if Naas knew then what his satement would lead to, he would take it back.
    The fact that the leading stats company is from NZ, does not mean that All Blacks are necesarily relying only on them to coach their team.
    HM is trying to make robots out of the Boks and are coaching all natural talent out of them and it all starts with over zealous reliance on the stats and analysis there of.

  • 1040.gunther: Reply to this comment

    @TooMuchRugby-1039:

    I give up.

    You really are that dumb.

    Carry on.

  • 1041.TooMuchRugby: Reply to this comment

    @gunther-1040:
    Just as i thought. As soon as your lack of rugby knowledge is exposed, you resort to ridicule again, old soppie.
    Calling me “plank” or “dumb” over and over again is just not cutting it anymore.
    It is clear to me now that the only time you came near to being on an actual rugby pitch was in primary school when you carried the oranges at half time.
    I m guessing your’e one of those rich kids growing up with a sense of entitlement that was moered out of you on a rugby pitch and now you spend your days hiding behind your keyboard slinging uncouth interjections at everyone who reminds you of that.

  • 1042.grant10: Reply to this comment

    New Zealand
    Preview: New Zealand v South Africa
    Fri, 14 Sep 2012 06:45

    PrevNextPaul Dobson previews the All Blacks versus Springboks Test
    Are you confident? If you are a New Zealander you are confident. If you are a South African you are looking for a shelter, somewhere to hide till the storm of 2012 disappointment has passed and somewhere there is a rainbow or even just a ray of hope that this icy mediocrity will pass.

    If you are a New Zealander, your head is up, and your eyes bright, you only query is By how much. If you are a South African, you pull the covers over you and pray Please, by not too much.

    On the evidence of the June Tests and Rugby Championship thus far, there does not seem the remotest possibility of a Springbok victory in this Round Four encounter.

    They have played six halves of rugby in this competition, and only two have been acceptable. New Zealand on the other hand, despite the second-test fright against Ireland, have gone serenely from victory to victory. Even when they were under pressure against the weather and the determined Pumas last weekend, they won 21-5.

    This week the All Blacks look, if anything, as strong as they were last weekend while the Springboks look, if anything, weaker without Eben Etzebeth and with injury worries to Bryan Habana and Jannie du Plessis.

    But there are bigger worries.

    One of those is tackling. Some of the tackling against the Wallabies last weekend was woeful. Tackling has traditionally been one of the things Springboks do well, but the missed tackles last week were elementary.

    They know the All Blacks will run at them and so they must know that they will be required to tackle.

    Then there is the worry of what they are going to do with the ball.

    Do they know what they are going to do with the ball, apart from kick it away, that is?

    Last week they did not even go in for wildebeest charging, just kicking. They could have simple surprise moves – like clearing quickly from the tackle, passing to the man next to you, bringing a fullback into the line and counterattacking – running back at the All Blacks with the ball in hand.

    Those are all things the All Blacks will do but not things the Springboks have done. Imagine if both sides do it on Dunedin’s dry and windless field.

    Forsyth Barr Stadium should suit the All Blacks down to the ground. The nimbleness, speed and creativity of backs and forwards should have a free rein. They should have no difficulty getting possession. They will dominate the scrums, get their own ball in the line-outs with Andrew Hore to throw in and will dominate the tackle.

    Then if they need any more the Springboks will kick it to them. Cory Jane and Israel Dagg will see to that. Isn’t Jane wonderful under the high ball?

    Players to Watch:

    For New Zealand: Backs Conrad Smith, Aaron Cruden, elusive Cory Jane and strong Julian Savea but above all Israel Dagg. In the New Zealand pack there are their loose forwards, complementing each other so well.

    For South African: There remains the excitement of energetic Bryan Habana and still the possibility of Frans Steyn.

    Head to Head: The halfbacks: creative, elusive, impulsive, mercurial Aaron Cruden against staid, predictable Morné Steyn and unpredictable, do-it-my-way Piri Weepu against slow, staid Ruan Pienaar. The halfback contests could determine the character and pace of the game. Conrad Smith running straight and creating overlaps against Jean de Villiers of the suspect defence but the opportunistic ability. Amongst the loose forwards will François Louw be able to keep Richie McCaw in check. And at lock will Luke Romano dominate Flip van der Merwe? Then there is the goal-kicking contest between Aaron Cruden and Morné Steyn who has been battling of late. Oddly enough, unaffected by the climate though it is, the Forsyth Barr Stadium, a new Test venue for both sides, has not been a happy place for goal-kickers, not even Jonny Wilkinson.

    Recent results:
    2011: South Africa won 18-5, Port Elizabeth
    2011: New Zealand won 40-7, Wellington
    2010: New Zealand won 29-22, Soweto
    2010: New Zealand won 31-17, Wellington
    2010: New Zealand won 32-12, Auckland
    2009: South Africa won 32-29, Hamilton
    2009: South Africa won 31-19, Durban
    2009: South Africa won 28-19, Bloemfontein
    2008: New Zealand won 19-0, Cape Town
    2008: South Africa won 30-20, Dunedin

    Prediction: It looks an easy prediction. It’s hard to see the Springboks winning and so it does not seen farfetched to say the All Blacks by 20 points or more.

  • 1043.grant10: Reply to this comment

    I cannot remember a game where probably 99% of experts and arm chair critics are universally damning of a Bok team and there chances…..

    The reason why tomorrow will go to the wire….

    you can take that to the Bank…

  • 1044.gunther: Reply to this comment

    @TooMuchRugby-1041:

    Oh dear.

    Please don’t confuse anything you have said with actual rugby knowledge.

    You your first comments on the article as your of departure when you thought the guy had gone to the states to learn about gameplan and strategy from as you put it the most boring sport on the world .

    I merely pointed out to you that that wasn’t the main driver and that it was there approach to the sport in general from analysis to fitness training and rehab etc.

    You started crying about statistics and analysis and I merely pointed out that the kiwis think its pretty important.

    It’s a coaching tool no?

    You are spectacularly fulking stupid.

    One of those “okes” who thinks that just because he ended up at the bottom of a ruck too many times he knows everything about the sport. Thank good for the railways hey?

    As for where I went to school and what rugby I played you will never know.

    We are all armchair critics here pal but dont waste everyone’s time trying to pass of your sorry prejudices as rugby knowledge.

    Now wake up and sort yourself out.

  • 1045.gunther: Reply to this comment

    @grant10-1042:

    He’s done great things at Province.

    If they have any sense there they’ll make Dobbo the next coach before someone else snaps him up.

  • 1046.grant10: Reply to this comment

    ..
    …It’s supposed to be the greatest rivalry in rugby, but very few pundits are backing the Springboks to beat the All Blacks in Dunedin on Saturday.

    Most expect the hosts to show Heyneke Meyer and co. why ‘total rugby’, when executed correctly, will always be superior to the one-dimensional style to which the Boks insist on confining themselves.

    The Springboks’ stubbornness in sticking to what they believe is a tried-and-tested formula – and by extension their selection policy – has been the greeted by widespread frustration not only in the Republic, but around the world as fans beg to see the Boks use some of the attacking talents at their disposal.

    Earlier this week we ran a poll asking who you would pick at 10 and 15 for the Boks. Of the eight options provided, Meyer’s preferred combination ranked… a distant seventh.

    Less than four per cent of the fans who voted reckon that Morne Steyn and Zane Kirchner are the right men for the job. Overwhelmingly our readers feel that either Johan Goosen or Pat Lambie, or a combination of the two, should be South Africa’s playmakers.

    It’s easy to criticise Steyn’s lack of invention, but he is only doing what he is told. And to be fair to Meyer, if South Africa are going to persist with employing their current tactic (and I use the singular form intentionally, because it’s abundantly clear there is no ‘plan B’) then Steyn IS the best choice.

    And judging by some comments from the Bulls fly-half this week, the Boks have no intention of changing the approach that brought them their last Tri-Nations title back in 2009.

    “We’ve won a Tri-Nations with the same game-plan and in 2007 we won the World Cup with these tactics. We have to stay with this strategy,” he said.

    Eh?

    So, it worked against equally one-dimensional Argentina and England at a World Cup five years ago so it can’t be wrong?

    True, the hit-’em-hard-and-kick-it-high approach bore fruit in 2009 when Joe Rokocoko and Sitiveni Sivivatu, who were hopelessly out of form at the time, were found wanting under the high ball. But to simply expect the current crop of Kiwis to wilt under pressure in the same fashion is more than naive, it’s just plain foolish.

    Every defensive coach in world rugby has seen it all before and has had years and years to come up with the necessary solutions.

    But the more we shout, the more the siege mentality in the Bok camp is entrenched. Meyer says he doesn’t care that his team have been written off, that he’s used to being criticised and has instead highlighted the fact that he is leading an inexperienced team in country where the Boks have not enjoyed much success.

    Sure, you can’t replace the players he’s lost overnight, but surely that is all the more reason to build a new strategy around the next generation of talents at his disposal?

    The furore over the Boks living in denial has gone a long way to overshadow the fact that the All Blacks were given an almighty scare by Argentina last week.

    As much as that result is a reflection of just how good the Pumas are, if truth be told, the Kiwis weren’t at their best and their error count was uncharacteristically high. Some calm heads from experienced players saw them home though as their approach to the game ultimately proved the same point we expect again this weekend: If you keep moving the ball, gaps will eventually open up. Compare that to the Boks’ inability to put the Pumas away in both Cape Town and Mendoza.

    While this will be South Africa’s first visit to Forsyth Barr Stadium, the Springboks’ last visit to the deep south and the now defunct ‘House of Pain’ (Carisbrook) in 2008 resulted in victory. But don’t read too much into that, the Boks have won just three times in New Zealand in the professional era.

    Some pundits have suggested that this game might be a crossroads for South Africa, arguing that if they get hammered, they’ll be forced to rethink their strategy.

    But there are too many class players in the visitors’ side for this to turn into a massacre. If South Africa come anywhere near winning, the coaching staff will see it as vindication of their outdated thinking and we’ll be back to square one. In that case, the real losers will be everyone who wants to see exciting rugby.

    Players to watch:

    For New Zealand: Officially, Piri Weepu has been handed back the number nine shirt because Aaron Smith was a naughty boy and staying out too late but it would not have been a huge surprise if the World Cup winner had been bumped up from the bench anyway. After a poor Super Rugby season, Mr Fixit has looked much better in a Black jersey (not least because he has lost 10kg) and was a steadying influence when the Kiwis needed calm heads in Wellington. With the hosts looking to play at a high tempo on a dry track, Weepu will be keen to show he can keep up with the pace and regain a regular starting berth. Axed from the team last week for simply not being good enough, Sam Whitelock returns with a point to prove – South Africa’s line-out will provide a real test of his skills.

    For South Africa: With a grand total of one Premiership game for Bath and 23 minutes against Australia under his belt, Francois Louw has been brought into the Bok starting XV with the specific task of beating Richie McCaw on the ground. No pressure, then. Whilst Flo’s inclusion has been welcomed by many as a step in the right direction, the fact that it comes at the expense of Marcell Coetzee – South Africa’s best player this year and their only forward with any pace – has only heaped even more pressure onto Louw’s shoulders. How many Test tries would Bryan Habana have scored if he was born in New Zealand? Despite being starved of opportunities to gallop in space, he always finds a way to get involved.

    Head-to-head: Incredibly, there are just three players in the All Blacks starting team this weekend that were also in the run-on side when they last played the Springboks in Port Elizabeth last August. One of them, Israel Dagg, must be licking his lips at the prospect of being kicked at by Zane Kirchner. If the SA back three get it even slightly wrong, they’ll be punished. The equation is simple: give Dagg, Jane and Savea ammunition and you’ll get shot.

    Previous results:

    2011: South Africa won 18-5 at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
    2011: New Zealand won 40-7 at Westpac Stadium, Wellington
    2010: New Zealand won 29-22 at FNB Stadium, Johannesburg
    2010: New Zealand won 31-17 at Westpac Stadium, Wellington
    2010: New Zealand won 32-12 at Eden Park, Auckland
    2009: South Africa won 32-29 at Rugby Park, Hamilton
    2009: South Africa won 31-19 at Absa Stadium, Durban
    2009: South Africa won 28-19 at Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein
    2008: New Zealand won 19-0 at Newlands
    2008: South Africa won 30-28 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
    2008: New Zealand won 19-8 at Westpac Stadium, Wellington
    2007: New Zealand won 33-6 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
    2007: New Zealand won 26-21 at Absa Stadium, Durban
    2006: South Africa won 21-20 at Royal Bafokeng Stadium, Rustenburg
    2006: New Zealand won 45-26 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria

    Prediction: I honestly hope the Boks prove me wrong and provide us with a spectacle worth watching. But on current form, I can only see a home victory. Heyneke Meyer’s walkie-talkie to take a beating and New Zealand to win by 14 points

  • 1047.grant10: Reply to this comment

    more experts writing us off…..

    Hope Boks come out snarling …..

  • 1048.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment

    @trupisero-1034:
    time will tell then i, guess.
    and for your sake and mine, i hope i am right.

  • 1049.Dawn: Reply to this comment

    Grant assbelief genoeg met die cut en paste

  • 1050.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment

    @The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-1035:
    what can i say,

    keep the faith…

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Keo.co.za has always promoted uncensored views, but has never tolerated racist or crass outbursts. Come on guys and girls. If you can't moderate yourselves or each other then I am going to be forced to regulate the posts and enforce a registration process for comments. The choice is yours.

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