Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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13 Sep 2012, 09:07 am
Conrad Smith and Mama Nonu are distictly sloe
without carter, and brycie, the Blacks are beatable, v beatable.
13 Sep 2012, 09:08 am
@PissAnt-96:
In all honesty I don’t want to know
@gunther-99:
All that “Aziza the fortune teller” can say is something about a walkie talkie been smashed to pieces.
13 Sep 2012, 09:11 am
@PissAnt-53: what is the win ratio of new zealand super rugby teams in SA?
13 Sep 2012, 09:12 am
@cab-101:
much better springbok teams have been destroyed by much weaker AB teams
youre clutching at strings
13 Sep 2012, 09:15 am
@Transformation-103:
What year?
13 Sep 2012, 09:16 am
@gunther-81: Worse than horrid…..I was performing like Heyneke. The damage: one bruise to my knee, 1 remote now covered with trusty cellotape, one traumatised Rottweiler and a husband who didn’t even greet me this morning. Oh Parnell is going to pay….
@Jeraldjay-95: Benches will be cleared early?
13 Sep 2012, 09:17 am
I heard Tricky Ricky is having his passport fast-tracked through the Department of H0mo Fairs. The Dunedin Dazzler will strike again before the week is out.
13 Sep 2012, 09:17 am
@gunther-84:
I see what you did there.
13 Sep 2012, 09:18 am
“Bossing a tackle fight”
Ryan, is this normal Saffa parlance?
13 Sep 2012, 09:18 am
@Transformation-103:
NZ win record in SA:
2010 – 28.6%
2011 – 54.5%
2012 – 60%
13 Sep 2012, 09:18 am
@Jeraldjay-102:
Let me guess, you also played Quest for Glory II, Trial by Fire?
If so, have a look out for a VGA remake by an indie group…it’s really good.
13 Sep 2012, 09:18 am
@PissAnt-105: 2009 to 2012
13 Sep 2012, 09:19 am
@PissAnt-110:
Super Rugby record of course
13 Sep 2012, 09:20 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-106: He was so rubbish, apparently they’re reversing his Islam conversion. It’s part of the test: buy a little mat, recite passages from the Quran and keep it below 30 an over.
13 Sep 2012, 09:20 am
@Transformation-112:
2009 – 43%
13 Sep 2012, 09:20 am
@PissAnt-110: thanks and what do these stats mean to you in terms of how the all blacks have performed in SA over the years?
13 Sep 2012, 09:20 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-106:
You need a good bra if you are going to do ‘Riverdance’ Moves!
13 Sep 2012, 09:22 am
No Bok side has ever been destroyed by an AB side – the ABs do not put big scores on the Boks. The ABs fear the Bok and rightfully so – this is the time of the year the Elephant awakes..
13 Sep 2012, 09:22 am
@katman-107:
Well there be a wrestle off if it is a draw after 80 minutes?
13 Sep 2012, 09:22 am
@carol-109: No. But I think it’s a dance move down at The Galaxy. Everyone stands in a big circle, while two candidates in white Levis attempt to boss the tackle fight.
13 Sep 2012, 09:23 am
@Transformation-116:
The funny thing I see in there is that in a year where we supposedly ‘Ryan-ed’ (bossed) the Kiwi’s in Super Rugby (2012) they had one of their best years playing in SA, we one of our worst!
For me it spells one simple thing, we continue to struggle over there an its way too easy for them in our own backyard.
13 Sep 2012, 09:23 am
@cab-118: define “destroyed”?
13 Sep 2012, 09:24 am
Actually I popped by to have a riviting conversation about set pieces, domminance and phyisicality!!
13 Sep 2012, 09:24 am
@gunther-119: Indeed. Tricky Ricky has had a custom Rey Mysterio mask designed just in case.
13 Sep 2012, 09:25 am
@katman-107: I’ll probably take a bit of slack for saying this, but honestly, this Bok team could do with a Ricky J type fellow. I don’t recall one test match in which he let the Boks down. He harrassed the hell out of any opposition, literally threw his weight around like an additional loose forward and was certainly NEVER shown up when the ball was out in the way Pienaar and Hougaard have been.
Ricky took wayyyyyyyyyyyyy too much slack that was undeserved. (Yes, he deserved some of the slack….all players do)
13 Sep 2012, 09:25 am
@katman-114:
Unless you cousin in Faisalabad asks you not to.
13 Sep 2012, 09:26 am
The Boks are actually more like Buffalo – normally docile slow cud-munching creatures but a rampant enraged beast when injured or when they see the sight of a kiwibird flashing his tail feathers.
13 Sep 2012, 09:28 am
@katman-120:
I think our Ryan might be a white Levis man!
You have to have a certain confidence to carry them off!
13 Sep 2012, 09:28 am
Is Parnell converting?
13 Sep 2012, 09:28 am
Waseem Parnell?
13 Sep 2012, 09:29 am
@cab-118:
40-7 Wellington 2011
52-16 Loftus 2003
55-25 Eden Park 1997
19-0 2009 Newlands
33-6 2007 Chch
you sure Cab?
13 Sep 2012, 09:29 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-125:
You will.
Why did rikki take three steps to clear the ball?
His pass had the same trajectory as a pensioners ejaculation.
But he always gave his all and was a menace around the fringes.
A good bok yes but not a great.
13 Sep 2012, 09:29 am
@PissAnt-121: i’m kind of ambivalent on this comparison because super rugby includes teams like the Lions & marginally the Cheetahs who are serial bottom-dwellers as the quality of their players is also sometimes poor, so the conclusion that the win % in NZ of the same teams can be used as yardstick or justification for the Springboks playing badly or losing in New Zealand is rather tenuous in my opinion.
13 Sep 2012, 09:29 am
If we had no injuries would it make any difference, well we would have a solid pack but HM would still choose – Spies\Burger and Smith.. not bad but he would leave out Brussow or Flow… And would still have M Steyn at FH….. we have the players, we have the talent it’s a shame that HM is using the 1990 rugby rule book.. He needs to wisen up….
13 Sep 2012, 09:29 am
@PissAnt-121: And if you take the Lions and possibly the Cheetahs results against Kiwi teams out of these equations?
Do the Stormers have the best record against Kiwi teams away? The last few years?
13 Sep 2012, 09:30 am
@poppa69-131: Eden park should read 55-35
13 Sep 2012, 09:30 am
@Dawn-129:
Someone needs to convert Parnell into a better bowler.
13 Sep 2012, 09:30 am
@Dawn-129:
He has already.
13 Sep 2012, 09:30 am
PielNues have some exclusive footage of Heyneke cotching… Just geposted on Youtube now… as ek verkeerd is ek sal sommer vokkof vir altyd!
As you **** what he says about Xhosa, Morne and the team sabotage in practice…
Vokken worse then staaaldraad, vokken vokked up lighties.
ag nee man…
Nie virrie feinted hearted, ek waarskew klaar nou. Hierssit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVWWvo5EhoQ
noe was ek verkeered??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
13 Sep 2012, 09:30 am
Transie 122
let us not get into trivial details here.
13 Sep 2012, 09:31 am
@carol-128:
Black leather jacket, white Levi’s, and shiny white Purcells, our Ryan.
13 Sep 2012, 09:32 am
@gunther-138:
Agamdurila
13 Sep 2012, 09:32 am
@gunther-138: Dawn’s talking about his conversion to unleaded. Apparently the ’86 325i catalytic converter is not that easy to come by.
13 Sep 2012, 09:32 am
@gunther-132: At the moment we are sitting with a team of mediocre Boks, and one or 2 so-called ‘GREAT’ Boks. I would take a GOOD Bok, with mongrel and Ricky J type commitment with a smile right about now…….
Players with attitude required…..send CV’s.
13 Sep 2012, 09:32 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-125: Ricky was at the back of the scrum yes but had his flyhalf kakking himself because of his double step loopy pass. Good on defence with a 10 out of 10 irretating factor but thats about all he brought to the table. (As can clearly be seen he took a lot FROM the table though) Not enough for a international 9.
Having said that we are struggling as it is currently. I wonder how many calls FdP recieved this last week or two?
13 Sep 2012, 09:33 am
@Transformation-133: @The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-135:
2012 stats I posted earlier are against our top teams and theirs only.
And similar to SA, majority of All Blacks are picked from their top teams
13 Sep 2012, 09:34 am
@katman-143:
Indeed
Waseem now needs some serious street cred
13 Sep 2012, 09:35 am
@PielNeus-139: That nic just oooooooozes class
13 Sep 2012, 09:36 am
@katman-143:
I’m sure dawn will hook him up.
She’s been down that road with the dolphin shape.
13 Sep 2012, 09:36 am
@PielNeus-139: Not a bad stab at the meme. You need to source a better voice, and feature more lip syncing bits. But not bad.
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