Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
Pages: « 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 … 22 » Show All
13 Sep 2012, 09:37 am
@katman-143: Already went for the high lifting door handles, double overhead battery clamps. chrome dipstick, performance hoseclamps and a doberman woofer in the boot to cap it all………Fokking schweet…..
13 Sep 2012, 09:37 am
See ‘we’ won the cricket!!
What a sporting summer we Pom’s have enjoyed!
(My turn to actually have a little gloat, before our rugby really starts again) !!
Still it might be your turn to rejoyce in NZ at the weekend, just hope none of the Bok’s peek in here. Their confidence (if they still have any) will be blown to smithereens!
Have a fun day all and I will look forward to speed reading your insightful comments and the amusing banter later.
13 Sep 2012, 09:39 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-145: Even if that’s all he brought to the table…it’s more than what we currently have are bringing.
SARU will not pay du Preez’s insurance – doubt it.
And in any event, he too would be a stop gap, and FURTHER reinforce Meyer’s conservative mindset. I would prefer Meyer to suffer a little……
If du Preez comes back and Morne suddenly ‘performs’ again, we will never be rid of the gameplan or Morne….
13 Sep 2012, 09:39 am
@carol-152:
Re Joyce
She is on strike for R 12 500.
13 Sep 2012, 09:40 am
@WP-Forever-141:
His next outfit for Keo TV tomorrow sorted!!
13 Sep 2012, 09:40 am
@cab-140: hey, you came up with bokke has never been destroyed, so set the parameters and define destroyed
13 Sep 2012, 09:40 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-153: Sad but true. I really though a year or so ago Hougie would step up to the plate.
13 Sep 2012, 09:40 am
@Transformation-122:
he means any fully available and fit bok A team.
the b team/injury plagued/touring squad/experimental teams dont count the same.
13 Sep 2012, 09:42 am
@gunther-154:
Is she worth it?
13 Sep 2012, 09:42 am
@carol-152: If you call T11 and T9 cricket.
What’s next? Just handing the trophy to the winner of the toss?
13 Sep 2012, 09:44 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-151: And racing bucket seats so low you have to navigate by memory.
13 Sep 2012, 09:44 am
Wonderful to read such colorful posts first thing the morning, ha ha!!
Maybe HM is not the baddy we think he is, HM is already getting The Goose involved, however he is determined not to make another Gaffie mess!!
HM has a potential future BOK glory boy on his hands and he is treating hm carefuly, good for him. Past coaches would have panicked by now and thrown The Goose in the deep end!!
Apart from the flyhalf i still think HM has chosen the best 22, apart from inujured and ineligble players!!
13 Sep 2012, 09:45 am
Keo, I am really looking forward to Percy’s Keo TV slot discussing “How we can beat the AB’s”
After all, he is the only one on the Keo team who has been there and done it!
Do I have to beg?
Now really am out (as Puma would say) !
13 Sep 2012, 09:46 am
@katman-160:
Blame the weather… Byee!
13 Sep 2012, 09:46 am
@PielNeus-139: Thought it was brilliant
13 Sep 2012, 09:46 am
@carol-159:
I don’t know.
She is the cousin of Maevis.
Maevis passed through that barrier years ago.
She has more money in Switzerland than Jose Eduardo dos Santos.
13 Sep 2012, 09:47 am
@katman-161: He just needs to ask one or two of the bloggers here where he can purchase one of those ‘P*** wild en f*kkol geduld’ stickers for the rear window……
13 Sep 2012, 09:47 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-158: whatever, you’re the “excuse” man.
have the Boks ever “destroyed” ANY all black team B-C- or D team for that matter?
what is “destroyed”? would it be losing by more than 15 to 30 points, that’s all i want to know!
13 Sep 2012, 09:47 am
I really feel for Pat Lambie. The kid is talented, and would definitely be an improvement on Morne, but he can’t get a spot in the starting lineup. He should be starting FH this saturday, with Goose coming on after 60min. Hm is proving to be a disapointment.
13 Sep 2012, 09:49 am
@Transformation-168: both are apologists and using Big Hits famous line..
any score over 50 is a thrashing in my books, and the ABs have doen that twice to the Bok.
once at altitude at Loftus..
these two must have been too young then
13 Sep 2012, 09:55 am
in that case, didn’t jakey destroy them with 40-odd points a few years back?
Before readmission, and the inevitable rebuilding process that ensued, the boks were comfortable, not just slightly ahead in the head-to-head results vs tge ABs. The Rhino is already starting to awake just look at tge super 14 series, with each passing year SA rugby get stronger – another 5 years time The Springboks will once again be best team.
13 Sep 2012, 09:57 am
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-158:
I remember the kick chase tactics used by the 2009 boks
The chasers were ALWAYS miles offside
cheats cheats cheats
oops sorry only the ABs cheats
13 Sep 2012, 09:58 am
@poppa69-170: In whole proud 100+ year history they have beaten Blacks by more than 15 (which can be regarded as “destroying”) exactly once. 86 years ago.
While getting whipped by 15+ … Oh, dear. 13 times.
13 Sep 2012, 09:58 am
@cab-171:
40-26
14 points is “destroyed”? lol
you said the same thing after 2009 Cab, and we’ve all seen how its progressed since then.. you were one proclaiming a new world order and such..
deja vu perhaps?
13 Sep 2012, 09:59 am
@cab-171:
Yes
but that was the era when South Africa invented cheating refs
13 Sep 2012, 09:59 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-148: domvok gaan kak, you want class go back to school – BOOOOOOOOOM!
13 Sep 2012, 10:00 am
@cab-171: He beat them by 12. If that is called “destroying”, your okes are getting destroyed almost every odd year.
13 Sep 2012, 10:01 am
@Nils-173:
SAs biggest win margin is 17 points in the 1930s
NZs is the 52-16 win at Loftus
CAB
would 28-0 to NZ be “destroying” the boks? (was in 1999)
13 Sep 2012, 10:01 am
@cab-171: apologies, 14 points. anyway.
13 Sep 2012, 10:01 am
@spartan-175: From the makers of The Bryce is Right.
13 Sep 2012, 10:01 am
@poppa69-178: Dig deeper. 20s.
13 Sep 2012, 10:02 am
starting about 5 years ago the sharks topped tge conference for tge first time, then the Bulls dominated for the next 4 years or so and tge last 2 years have seen the stormers drstroy all kiwi opposition – this year we nearly had 3 teams in the playoffs – not only are we winning the thing more regulary but our depth is building – the trend is inevitable – it won’t be kong before the Bok devours anything in it’s sight with consummate ease – only problem is our cretinous coaches
13 Sep 2012, 10:03 am
Swing those wangers
13 Sep 2012, 10:04 am
“Intimidation is part of their mentality. Lets face it, theyve existed in their country since 1652 by kicking blacks backsides around, I knew it was time someone stood up to the Boks”
In his 1st game back, the 3rd Test in Christchurch, he did.
“I warned (Bok prop) Chris Koch for coming through a lineout, and he did it again, so I whacked him” Kevin Skinner told Keith Quinn for a 1999 TVNZ series. “He was a good mate of mine, gave my family tickets to the 1st Test in Dunedin, and sent flowers to my mother.
But I let him have one.
Then old Japie was trying it on, so I gave him a wee nudge too.
That was the end of it”.
13 Sep 2012, 10:06 am
@cab-182: Super rugby doesnt translate to Test match rugby Cab.. like your “dominance” over Aussie?
look at your record since 2007
SA 5 wins
Aus 10 wins
eish…
13 Sep 2012, 10:07 am
Belly wobble Guffaw.
13 Sep 2012, 10:07 am
Up to 92 Boks were ahead 21-16 in the head-to-heads , which was actually a massive difference considering that for most of that players were transported by skip.
Make no mistake – the Boks have dominated the ABs for the greatest part of rugby union history.
You can jump around like a prancing kiwibird, you can wail to the high heavens, but u ain’t gonna change that simple fact.
Enjoy the good times while they last, it won’t be long until tge natural order rebalnces itself.
13 Sep 2012, 10:08 am
@PielNeus-176: @PielNeus-176: en om te dink jy ken my nie eers nie maar as dit jou n horing gee om agter jou keyboard te sit en tierkat te wees……gaan groot poepsak
13 Sep 2012, 10:09 am
This wanger swinging is getting boring
And I dont want to be bored today
13 Sep 2012, 10:10 am
@cab-182:
Actually in the last 2 years the Crusaders have destroyed the Stormers every time they have met not to mention the Chiefs putting 30 pts on them in 2011
so try and get your facts right
13 Sep 2012, 10:11 am
Thing is…the Boks really have not been as good as what the isolation years promised us we would be. The years spent in isolation, honestly lulled SA rugby into a false sense of security.
It’s easy to sit back and mutter things like, “if WE were at that WC we would definitely have won”. “We are the best in the world at the moment, but we can’t prove it, because we have no competition.”. All stakeholders in SA rugby believed these statements made in the isolation era, as it made all of us feel better about ourselves and our rugby….
Yes, there were Bok teams back then, who ‘could’ have ruled the world, and who ‘might’ have, but there was no guarantee they ‘would’ have.
Post isolation: the expectation that the Boks would rule the rugby world was based on a lot of folklore, wishful thinking and indocrinated positivity……
The facts are, we just haven’t been as good or as dominant as what was promised.
And that’s just the way it is.
13 Sep 2012, 10:11 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-165: Mevrou ek sweer I am finding horror stories here, but nothing will stop me, the public will have all rights know. i will expose more.
I’m gonna go Assange on Meyers asse, Assange all up in meyers gesig ek se the truth will uitcome.
13 Sep 2012, 10:12 am
All Blacks by 20 I’m afraid.
13 Sep 2012, 10:13 am
@cab-187:
and at that time
21 games played in SA
17 in NZ
so no “dominance” Cab
but since then
the ABs have won 30 to SA’s 13, that is Dominance..
13 Sep 2012, 10:13 am
Yep 2009 was just tge start of it – a cleansweep -the ABs have never experienced anything like it in a generation and they shat themselves something awful cos they got a taste of what their daddy’s were used to – the Mighty Bok beast and what a beast it was.
Those results are going to become more frequent not less.
13 Sep 2012, 10:13 am
The Springboks have no leadership or direction in the pack… The All Blacks do.
13 Sep 2012, 10:14 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-191: Fair point but the team we could have put together in 87 would have been nothing short of awesome.
Anyways gotta run, have a great day and apologise to the hubby for wrecking the house… hehehe.
13 Sep 2012, 10:14 am
@PielNeus-192:
The only thing you and Assange have in common is a lack of clarity around the concept that no means no.
Cocknose.
13 Sep 2012, 10:15 am
@poppa69-174: So 55-35 counts as a “destroying” scoreline?
After Andre Venter received a red card?
13 Sep 2012, 10:16 am
Matching the teams man-for-man in context of the game Saturday, New Zealand outrank the Springboks with form or talent in more than 10 of the 15 starting positions the other 5 are tied or close calls.. This should paint the picture of what will most probably be the result on Saturday. Throw in a useless game-plan and some mediocre kicks and you can call this one by a larger than 12 point victory margin.. Or maybe the guys will be lucky and get a few points and come in close, but it wouldn’t be because of anything else but dumb luck and perfect timing
Pages: « 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 … 22 » Show All
Have your say
You must be logged in to post a comment.