Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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13 Sep 2012, 10:18 am
@gunther-198: Sounds like a classic case of a runny PielNeus. Or, to use the official term, Pipileaks.
13 Sep 2012, 10:18 am
Skinner’s selection says all u need to know about the kiwi mindset when they lose – they had lost a hone series before that and were getting the puss beaten out of them upfront (legally) so instead they picked a pro boxer to smash up tge bok props who were carting them all over tge park – and they dine off on the old skinner stories for generations – boks shoulda picked kallie knoetze or corrie sanders or gerrie Coetzee at prop if they’d known it was going to be a boxing rather than rugby – they never had any decent boxers either – boks woulda stuffed them ip in that respect too just so happens the Boks thought it was actually rugby being played.
13 Sep 2012, 10:19 am
@katman-201:
Snaaks.
N
13 Sep 2012, 10:21 am
@cab-187: I don’t think even your turtle will live long enough to see “natural order” rebalancing.
13 Sep 2012, 10:21 am
Back in 2009 SA won the 3N on the strength of beating NZ three times then promptly losing to all and sundry everywhere else.
NZ had a far superior win loss ratio than SA that year in all Tests, but lost the important ones.
Is this team capable of repeating that effort?
Me says no way!
13 Sep 2012, 10:23 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-188: luister. As jou kom met a cabbie, sal ek kom met n oshkosh, as jy kom met oshkosh dan bliksem ek met die 5.15pm gautrein in die klein rugmurg tussen. gaan goed en geniet dit.
13 Sep 2012, 10:24 am
@willievz-199: anytime the opposition put 50 past you it is.. you may disagree, fine, but 50 points?
13 Sep 2012, 10:24 am
@cab-202:
Cab, back in the 50′s test rugby was played by men and enforced by thugs.
All teams had them, SA were the bench mark.
13 Sep 2012, 10:25 am
@cab-202: Speaking of which, when exactly is Fransie going to donner that decorated showpony? I must set the PVR.
13 Sep 2012, 10:25 am
What hogwash not to pick Goosen or Lambie for this fixture, especially the excuse that it could “harm their development” or “scar them psychologically”.
Does Lambie carry any scars from the 40-7 snotting last year?
13 Sep 2012, 10:25 am
Janee those japies woulda klapped skinner regdeur die pale – 3 punte.
Just so happens Koch was actually a v good rugby prop – he would’ve manged his kiwi counterparts and they knew it – so they resorted to ruthless tactics – losing that series was non-negotiable to tge fragile kiwi mindset whose nationality was defined by rugby.
The new zealanders have above all else been ruthless upfront – ppl go on about their backs, kak. Boks have had better backs apart from modern times.
13 Sep 2012, 10:25 am
@poppa69-207: What about 72-65?
13 Sep 2012, 10:27 am
LMAO at Nils
13 Sep 2012, 10:27 am
@KWAGGA ROBERTSE-197:
Have a good one.
13 Sep 2012, 10:28 am
@willievz-212: yep. was pathetic that scoreline, but we are talking test rugby Willie..
what about 28-0 , is that destroying a team?
13 Sep 2012, 10:31 am
208 Brads
long time no see, howzit going?
Skinner was picked for a v definite and specific purpose – if I’m not mistaken he put 3 Sa props in hospital – I think they were the best props in tge world at tge time – kick certainly was.
13 Sep 2012, 10:33 am
@cab-216:
Cab, I think you should sort out your predictive text entries. You’ve already had the Boks travelling overseas in a skip.
13 Sep 2012, 10:34 am
@poppa69-215: Yep, so is 19-0
13 Sep 2012, 10:36 am
@willievz-218: was just trying to refute Cabs assertion that the ABs had never destroyed the Boks… he then went off on tangents..
how do you see the game this weekend?
13 Sep 2012, 10:36 am
Boks by 15+
Weepu to have a shocker
13 Sep 2012, 10:37 am
@cab-211:
You make a valid point.
Polynesians, including Maori’s, were not as well represented as they are today, and prior to their emergence with flair etc, the AB’s were noted as hard forward based opposition.
Look no further than Ian Kirkpatrick holding the try scoring record for NZ at 16 right up until 1983 when Stu Wilson, a winger, overtook him.
Since that time, backs only have held the record.
13 Sep 2012, 10:38 am
@poppa69-219: ABs will win by a very comfortable 15+.
It might be tight until 50 minutes, then you guys will open the taps.
13 Sep 2012, 10:38 am
@willievz-218: 28-0 hurt more than the 50-20 odd thrashing we took at Loftus. Blanking a team and scoring 28 points just seems worse to me.
13 Sep 2012, 10:39 am
217 LOL David, yip.
Gdam all this bravado might be in vain, tomoro could be embaressing.
13 Sep 2012, 10:41 am
It looks like we don’t need a coach, we need a mentalist.
13 Sep 2012, 10:41 am
@Skeppie-223: It wasn’t even 20!
We scored 16.
52-16.
13 Sep 2012, 10:42 am
@gunther-198:klein groooooot seuntjie, n bietjie tired laat ek jou wyse wyfie:
daar is n corporasie grooter as selfs Coca-Cola, dit is Zoca-Cola. Now Zoca-Cola hou nie van Cooee, so hulle trumpet-up. mein konein is Obamachilds empire. Asseblief kont lees testimony dis a vokken lag
13 Sep 2012, 10:42 am
@spartan-190: well 44 points on the chiefs (or any NZ side for that matter) in a final sounds a little better Bulls 61 Chiefs 17 2009, hahahaha, thats the only real humiliation. Chiefs looked like a bunch of pink tutu fairies that day.
13 Sep 2012, 10:42 am
@willievz-222: not so sure myself, both teams measure themselves against the other, and the Bok have no expectations on them at all..
I do think your boys will lift, whether it is enough Im not so sure.. Im going ABs by 10
13 Sep 2012, 10:42 am
221 Brads
Yeah and Bryan Williams was out of this world good – but Bok stupid racist policies also shot themselves in the foot – the depth and future of SA rugby in future is actually going to dwarf the minority White player numbers.
13 Sep 2012, 10:43 am
@willievz-226: Oh hell…even worse. Both are thrashings regardless. I get irritated with all the flowery things we have to say in the media, we should be a rugby force and should always be vying with the AB’s for that number one position, we seem these days to just accept mediocrity. Losing by more than 10 points to the AB’s should be considered a thrashing in our eyes.
13 Sep 2012, 10:43 am
@cab-224: First we take manhattan, then we take berlin.
13 Sep 2012, 10:44 am
@cab-216:
There is no point denying it, Skinner was selected for a specific reason.
Arguments abound for the reasons why (payback etc) but who really cares, NZ did do it.
Those days are well gone thank goodness.
Under today’s scrutiny, the mighty Pine Tree would have spent most of his time in the bin or out right banned.
13 Sep 2012, 10:46 am
@poppa69-229: Think there will be a few handbags as well.
@Skeppie-231: I fully agree with that. We are not, and have never been, as good as we think we are.
13 Sep 2012, 10:47 am
@shooter-232: I don’t like these drugs that keep you thin.
13 Sep 2012, 10:48 am
@poppa69-229: Frustrating thing is Pops that this is a quality AB team and the same cannot be said about the boks. I just wish Carter was playing for you and Bismark, Burger, Smith, Etzebeth, Lambie and JPP were playing for us, then we would be seeing a real test match. I pray my beloved Boks rise to the occasion but I wouldn’t bet the house on it.
13 Sep 2012, 10:49 am
@lieflingblou-228:
Yeah they sure got schooled
13 Sep 2012, 10:49 am
@willievz-234: wouldnt be surprised
also expecting Kapo O pango as the haka..
13 Sep 2012, 10:51 am
@poppa69-238: I’m expecting Ka Mate.
13 Sep 2012, 10:51 am
233 – Brads
I think that’s exactly right – even some of those tackles u see on the old reels – make the chiropracter Lima look like positively genteel. V different, some crazy oldboys in those days.
13 Sep 2012, 10:52 am
@cab-224:
Yeah, but Saturday could be worse.
13 Sep 2012, 10:52 am
@cab-230:
Yeah we are seeing that with the emergence of a number of exciting players.
Your bloody coaches need a kick up the jacksy.
What is this bulldust where they insist on playing to your traditional strengths.
Even the Stormers, a team I have always considered to be 15 man rugby orientated suddenly decide to revert to 10 man rugby.
Fat lot of good that has done them is all I can say.
13 Sep 2012, 10:52 am
@Skeppie-236: I’ll never write a bok side off against the ABs, regardless of form leading into the match..
I do think the Boks are often guilty of playing at the level of their opposition though..Bismarck is a massive loss for you guys, and the others you have mentioned are quality too.. when is JPP back? was probably the form back towards the end of super rugby..
13 Sep 2012, 10:53 am
@willievz-234: Hmmm I think historically we have earned the right at certain stages to call ourselves the worlds best, in fact pre 1994 we would statistically have been the worlds best team in history but post 1994 we have not been nearly as consistently as good as the AB’s. What worries me even more is these days we seem happy to accept that, we really should be aiming higher. NZ rugby has less money, less resources and less players but they have been better than us….we should be asking why and how.
13 Sep 2012, 10:54 am
@willievz-239: I don’t think for Saturday we have earned Kapo o Pango
13 Sep 2012, 10:54 am
@willievz-239: nah, ABs will want to lay down a marker, and no better way then with Kapo imo
Id say the Boks are the team that have faced it the most
13 Sep 2012, 10:55 am
@poppa69-243: Yup that is 100% correct, the AB’s seem to wipe out teams that are inferior to them whilst we seem to win those games by much smaller margins. I think it’s all mental, the NZ players in general just seem to have a mental edge on us.
13 Sep 2012, 10:57 am
Haha yes sat – few days off.
Brads – yes u right our coaches are now actually holding the Boks back imo. Enjoy tge game sat -Cheers
13 Sep 2012, 11:00 am
@Skeppie-247: would it be fair to say its preparation based rather than just mental?
13 Sep 2012, 11:02 am
Bekker to come on from the bench to replace flip at 60min, then Kruger and Bekker will annihilate the AB lineout. This weekend will the time when Bekker finds his true place in the bok team as a super sub.
Goosen, Coetzee and Lambie will also had a lot of juice to the tank in the last 40-30-20min of the game.
Im not saying we will win this game, but I am saying that our guys are hungry and they want it bad, for themselves and the country. And history has shown us that top AB sides have gotten a proper beating (not shown in the score but rather in the fact that they have no more options – nothing like seeing a gigantic line breaker without any options ) from the most unlikely of opponents. So its possible very very possible. Everybody just needs to be 100% on top of their game.
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