Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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13 Sep 2012, 11:03 am
Boks in for a major A*S*S kicking this weekend – Ab by 20 will make me a happy man
13 Sep 2012, 11:03 am
@Skeppie-244:
I agree SA had a better win ratio over NZ up to 1994, but overall, NZ were far superior to SA.
In all test pre 1994 the winning ratios were
SA 62.1%
NZ 70.7%
Which all goes to demonstrate that if there is any day of the week the Bokke will rise to the challenge, it will be the day the AB’s are the opposition.
13 Sep 2012, 11:05 am
@Brads-242: with jake (his background being technical analysis) taking over the bokke in ’05 everything became about “percentages” and less about rugby and with SA being so bereft of success in super rugby when heyneke fluked it in 2007 most annointed him as hallowed…
when you consider the fact that the henry, smith, deans, rennie have all won super rugby titles, who amongst them goes around your country claiming kenner (all knowing) status?
13 Sep 2012, 11:06 am
Still think this Test is going to be a close fought battle…just a couple of points in it either way.
13 Sep 2012, 11:09 am
and this one is for every-one
I was born in a beauty salon
My father was a dresser of hair
My mother was a girl you could call on
When you called she was always there
When you called she was always there
When you called she was always there
When you called she was always there
When you called she was always there
Ah but don’t go home with your hard-on
It will only drive you insane
You can’t shake it (or break it) with your Motown
You can’t melt it down in the rain
You can’t melt it down in the rain
You can’t melt it down in the rain
You can’t melt it down in the rain
I’ve looked behind all of the faces
That smile you down to you knees
And the lips that say, Come on, taste us
And when you try to they make you say Please
When you try to they make you say Please
When you try to they make you say Please
When you try to they make you say Please
When you try to they make you say Please
Ah but don’t go home with your hard-on …
Here come’s your bride with her veil on
Approach her, you wretch, if you dare
Approach her, you ape with your tail on
Once you have her she’ll always be there
Once you have her she’ll always be there
Once you have her she’ll always be there
Once you have her she’ll always be there
Once you have her she’ll always be there
Ah but don’t go home with your hard-on …
So I work in that same beauty salon
I’m chained to the old masquerade
The lipstick, the shadow, the silicone
I follow my father’s trade
I follow my father’s trade
Yes I follow my father’s trade
Yes I follow my father’s trade
Yes I follow my father’s trade
Ah but don’t go home with your hard-on
It will only drive you insane
You can’t shake it (or break it) with your Motown
13 Sep 2012, 11:13 am
Jake took over in 2004 and proceeded to put 40 past rhe ABs with joubert scoring a hat-trick of tries. Meyers bulls won the first of 3 Super 14 rugby titles starting in 2007 and they were the best provincial side in world rugby of that period picking up 2 further titles in 2009 and 2010. the stormers have beaten all their kiwi oposition home and away, losing out v narrowly to the crusaders away this year missing key players.
13 Sep 2012, 11:13 am
@Transformation-253: 2004 Transie
13 Sep 2012, 11:15 am
@poppa69-249: Could be but that’s hard to quantify, teh mental side though to me seems obvious. The AB’s play to win games whilst it seems to me that we play to avoid losing.
13 Sep 2012, 11:16 am
@Transformation-253:
It is like watching those talent shows on TV, where wannabees bashout their version of some Britny Spears or Justin Bieber song and simply fail.
I am embarrassed for the performers, because they are clearly too incapable of being embarrassed themselves.
A full 12 months leading into the 2007 RWC, selling tickets in a sweep to be the person who told White he was being sacked as the Bokke coach would have sold out in record time.
A year later and he is the master.
The bloody world cup is destroying our game I tell you.
13 Sep 2012, 11:19 am
@stew-257: yes ’04.
13 Sep 2012, 11:19 am
@cab-256: didnt the stormers lose a home semi to the Saders in 2011 Cab?
@Skeppie-258: I guess so, I just think they dont have that focus during the week when playing say Scotland, but the week leading into an AB test they are all switched on and champing at the bit? hence my thought of preparation, but i suppose we are talking about two sides of the same coin..
13 Sep 2012, 11:20 am
@poppa69-261: 100% correct Poppa and the home pool game the week before
13 Sep 2012, 11:21 am
@cab-256: didnt they also lose the round robin game at Newlands when the Saders lost so many to injury during the game that Todd I think had to play as a winger? (if memories correct)
13 Sep 2012, 11:22 am
@Brads-259: yes, after playing samoa, fiji, tonga, england, argentina and england, some master he was
13 Sep 2012, 11:22 am
@poppa69-261: Yeah I guess you are right and we certainly do get up more for the AB’s than anyone else. Regardless of what is said in the media for a Saffa playing the AB’s is the ultimate.
13 Sep 2012, 11:23 am
@cab-256: “Jake took over in 2004 and proceeded to put 40 past rhe ABs with joubert scoring a hat-trick of tries.” and then what happened in the years after that ’05, ’06 and ’07?
13 Sep 2012, 11:24 am
@Skeppie-265: hence why I am not expecting the scoreline to blow out this weekend, for that very reason..
13 Sep 2012, 11:24 am
The only thing that gives me hope is that the Boks always play well when no-one expects us too. I am sticking to that
13 Sep 2012, 11:24 am
@Transformation-264: That’s a bit harsh isn’t it? He won a Tri Nations and a WC after all. And a lot of the tests he lost were really 2nd/3rd choice teams. JW didn’t create this whole “WC is everything” school of thought.
13 Sep 2012, 11:25 am
@cab-256:
Can’t disagree with the review you made.
My team, the Blues have been a disgrace over that same period.
Truly shocking.
We have now appointed a coach with a long history of suffering from depression.
Surely the Blues don’t have a secret sponsor who are hoping to market some sort of legal uppers drug that Kirwin is being prescribed.
13 Sep 2012, 11:26 am
@poppa69-267: Normally I would agree with you but there are some serious defensive frailties within our team (and that is not usual). Morne Steyn is a terrible defender and Juandre Kruger has made some defensive errors recently. Alberts makes big hits but also seems to slip a few and Ruan Pienaar isn’t the typical hard tackling, brave Bok 9.
13 Sep 2012, 11:28 am
@Transformation-264: well ab’s played Scotland, Italy, Romania, Portugal if you ask me that sounds much easier and much less physical than the boks group stages at the 2007WC.
And secondly Ab’s in 2007 once again showed us how they can be upset by and inferior and much smaller opponent namely the French. Wheep Wheep Wheep shame poor Kiwis.
13 Sep 2012, 11:30 am
Just read this on Supersport.com, cant say im terribly surprised:
By contrast, the Springboks appear content to stick to a simple plan, with their massive pack bludgeoning their way down field before flyhalf Morne Steyn engages his first, second and third instinct to kick the ball, either for territory or high in the air to force mistakes from the opposition.
STRATEGIC KICKING
The game’s rules, however, have moved on, giving the attacking side more incentive to hold on to the ball, which the All Blacks seem keen to exploit, though Steyn appears happy to stick what has worked for them in the past.
“We’ve won a Tri-Nations with the same game-plan and in 2007 we won the World Cup with these tactics. We have to stay with this strategy,” Steyn told Fairfax Media earlier this week.
“It’s not kicking the ball away; it’s kicking for a purpose.”
Coach Heyneke Meyer, who is also rebuilding the Springboks with the eye to the 2015 World Cup, has backed Steyn to guide his young team around the park, for the time being, and to play to their strengths.
As such, he has named a massive loose forward trio, bringing back Francois Louw to play as openside flanker, and Hansen said it was no surprise for Meyer to make those selection decisions.
They’ve clearly underlined what their strengths are – it’s a kick-chase game, and a lot of driving and physicality up front,” I can’t imagine them wanting to change that, but you’ve got to expect the unexpected as well.”
13 Sep 2012, 11:31 am
@Skeppie-269: trinations through a loser’s bonus point, innit?
13 Sep 2012, 11:31 am
Justice @Transformation-264: That’s my line, trademark infringement !!!!
13 Sep 2012, 11:33 am
@Brads-270: that’s why Ted & Mick Byrne are there…
13 Sep 2012, 11:33 am
@cab-256: What’s your point here?
You mention nice things (and they indeed are) during that period and completely omit not-so-nices.
13 Sep 2012, 11:33 am
Until SARU sort themselves out and start to actually run rugby in SA, we’ll continue to under perform. Whilst both Jake and PdV failed to develop depth and continuity for the future, the real responsibility for developing and managing the high performance players from the Super competition actually rests with SARU and the division that was originally called SA Rugby (Pty) Ltd. It was not the job of HM to visit all the players or to suggest that each franchise adopt a uniform SA (his) style of play.
That responsibilty should be handled by SARU and a professional team that includes the current Bok selectors and coach. They should identify, handle and plan the development of the elite and upcoming players and not leave it to the whim of one man (the coach) to determine a players future. At the moment we’ve seen numerous players moving overseas under the impression that they don’t feature in the coaches plans, and we’ll see more.
The elite committee (for want of a better word) should be providing a constantly evolving pool that the national coach (a short term appointment) can draw on.
13 Sep 2012, 11:33 am
@Skeppie-271: cant disagree, but injury has forced your hand somewhat, similar to the ABs in 09 to an extent, and at this level the small differences become so much more pronounced..we went through some pain, similar to what you guys are going through now… sometimes its necessary though, and I do think you guys will be stronger for it eventually..
13 Sep 2012, 11:33 am
Are we all agreed that the Lions and Cheetahs play the prettiest rugby? Are we all agreed that they have both been the worst SA performers over that time too – so now what do we do?
Actually maybe I better shut-up now now this HM persists with kick-chase, kick-chase is not the reason for tge success of tge sharks, bulls or stormers, if anything it’s cost them more success but that’s higher grade material.
13 Sep 2012, 11:33 am
Justice for the 96!!!!, YNWA.
13 Sep 2012, 11:34 am
I see today’s SA athlete of colour that has to be insulted is Wayne/Waleed Parnell.
What do they want Parnell to believe in? In nothingness, like them?
We do not all believe what he believes, but that is his decision.
13 Sep 2012, 11:36 am
@gunther-132: LOL Same trajectory as a
pensioners ejaculation.
13 Sep 2012, 11:38 am
@lieflingblou-272: “once again showed us how they can be upset by and inferior and much smaller opponent namely the French”
Please, tell us how.
13 Sep 2012, 11:38 am
@Transformation-266:
Well for one, he overplayed Joubert and then fired him and de Wet for “letting him down”.
13 Sep 2012, 11:39 am
@Skeppie-269: i don’t get it, are you suggesting that jake “winning” the tri-nations in 2004 is more legitimate than henry winning it in the years after that because jake was apparently losing with 2nd & 3rd string teams?
do the all blacks ever play 2nd & 3rd string teams against us or are they ALWAYS firing and whenever we beat them “it was their 1st string team”?
13 Sep 2012, 11:40 am
@Transformation-274: Doesn’t really matter does it, he won it full stop? I am not saying JW was the be all and end all but you would have to say he was succesful would’nt you?
13 Sep 2012, 11:40 am
BradS – blues are shocking under lam with all that natural talent – bit if a shame seems like a really nice oke, sometimes just need a change. Mealamu coming to end if his career who for my money is tge best tightfoward of tge last decade.
13 Sep 2012, 11:40 am
@XhosaKid-281:
1989 was a terrible year for the Scousers.
But as a Gunner fan I enjoyed the final game to decide the title…..
Best game ever…..
13 Sep 2012, 11:41 am
@lieflingblou-272:
You miss the point being made, or at least being attempted to.
I don’t give a rats what the result was at the RWC, I am miffed over the effort being put into the games leading into the RWC.
If the result from a Rugby international between RWC’s is meaningless compared to the greater goal of winning the golden gong itself, then lets just change all tests to friendlies and be done with it.
Dear God forbid
13 Sep 2012, 11:42 am
@Transformation-286: No what I am saying is that in context JW was a good coach. He won two big titles and had a mandate to focus on the WC (which he won) at the expense of winning every test. I don’t agree with this philosphy of the WC being everything but this was the case with JW and all in all he was succesful.
13 Sep 2012, 11:43 am
@poppa69-263: Nope that was last year. This year we only played the saders once in NZ and lost in a close game , I remember that game , the saders just returned from SA and played like a house on fire !! Only lost for the Stormers on tour.
13 Sep 2012, 11:44 am
@poppa69-279: Yup I am not using it as an excuse, the AB’s seem to do far better when they have an injury crisis than we do but as a spectator I would love to see both teams at full strength going at it this weekend.
13 Sep 2012, 11:44 am
@Sheriff-282: Toughen up tiger. I have wanted to Riverdance on the torso of Morne Morkel more than once…..and on FuckupFaf’s numerous times….
I don’t care if a player is a bright shade of purple, if he fucksup, he gets it from me. I am an equal oppotunity basher of sportsmen.
@David-278: Not in our lifetime mate
For some reason we SAFFAS rely on the PAST to find the answers for our future…sport/politics/life in general…while the rest of the world barely notices the past, and focuses purely on the future…..
13 Sep 2012, 11:45 am
@cab-280: in previous years the chiefs played the “prettiest” rugby but Fossy lacked balance in his approach, in comes rennie & wayne smith and they put some mongrel & itelligence in the pack, beat the players up about defence and VOILA chiefs are super rugby champions!
get the cheetahs a defence coach and stop poaching their players and they would surprise you!
13 Sep 2012, 11:46 am
@Seismic-273: I cannot understand why the comment is always made that we have a monster pack? The AB’s are just as big as us, in fact the pack we have played recentley is probably smaller than that current AB pack.
13 Sep 2012, 11:47 am
@Seismic-273: I think the fundamental error in that piece is the following two words – “massive pack”.
13 Sep 2012, 11:50 am
@cab-288:
Lam was a good provincial coach.
No one can deny that, he coached Auckland to a provincial title.
But there is a big step up from provincial level skill sets to Super rugby, just as there is between Super Rugby and Test’s
Lam wasn’t good enough.
Just as it seems, Meyer and his possy of assistants are at test level.
13 Sep 2012, 11:50 am
295 – Transformation completely agree with that but neither are they tge crusaders who play tge mist strctured of all the NZ teams – it’s tge balance you’ve got to find and the SA coaches that have done that have been the most successful. HM is way WAY too conservative, either changes fast or he go the same way as Carel dup, at tge other end of spectrum with 37% of success.
13 Sep 2012, 11:50 am
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-294:
Are you trying to tell me that you are fair?
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