Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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13 Sep 2012, 11:50 am
@sparticus-268: hahaha. Very true…..lol.
13 Sep 2012, 11:51 am
Bok front row must catch a wakey this Sat….far too quiet and subdued….
13 Sep 2012, 11:51 am
@Skeppie-287: successful at what? his overall win ratio (which by the way is the currency in international rugby) says he was mediocre.
13 Sep 2012, 11:51 am
@sparticus-292: I was correcting CAB who ascertained that the Stormers had beat all NZ teams over the 2010/2011 period, hence my reference to last year
@Skeppie-293: I am in total agreement
13 Sep 2012, 11:52 am
@grant10-302: They tired. Also missing Bissie there.
13 Sep 2012, 11:54 am
@Jeraldjay-289: Go away!!!!
13 Sep 2012, 11:55 am
@XhosaKid-306:
13 Sep 2012, 11:57 am
@Transformation-303: Depends on the definition of sucess (that was my whole point). His mandate seemed to be; win the WC 1st, win Tri Nations titles 2nd and then try and win every test. According to this he was sucessful. I agree with you, for me I would rather have an 80% win ratio over four years than a 60% win ratio and the WC title. All I am saying is that JW met his mandate.
13 Sep 2012, 11:59 am
@Skeppie-308: where do you get that this was his mandate?
13 Sep 2012, 12:00 pm
Very good move from SARU (from supersport)
“SARU has rather opted to nominate the SA under-20 side as the “second side” – thereby ensuring that any player who plays at that level, is automatically frozen and can’t qualify for another international team.”
This means Ireland must scout from Craven week and cannot watch IRB junior rugby, Currie Cup and Super rugby before picking from our talent (except for those missing out on U20 Bok rugby)
13 Sep 2012, 12:01 pm
@Sheriff-300: Its Thursday.Too early in the dayn for deja vu.
13 Sep 2012, 12:04 pm
@Sheriff-300: I’m trying to tell you that I get p # ssed off with below par performances full stop.
Moving on.
13 Sep 2012, 12:04 pm
@Transformation-309: I am presuming. He and the coach before him made many comments around the WC taking preference, “judge me at the WC” etc. And the SA Rugby bosses seemed happy with this hence the presumption that this was the yardstick for success. he was also allowed to rest players from Tri Nations games in order to prioritise the WC.
13 Sep 2012, 12:07 pm
@Jeraldjay-307: The saddest thing is looking back to those years and see how far we have fallen behind, WP is starting to worry me a bit, 2000-2001 we are on our 2nd decade.
13 Sep 2012, 12:10 pm
@Skeppie-313: no presumption. that was the plan from the outset.
these bokkies on a hiding for nothing against the ABs. at best it may hasten retirement plans for some players. And hopefully the forked tongue messiah follows suit.
13 Sep 2012, 12:12 pm
@XhosaKid-314:
With all the talent and resources.
Yes, Liverpool and WP are in the same boat when it comes to having a rich history filled with great players and titles.
But one cannot live in the past.
13 Sep 2012, 12:20 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-312:
13 Sep 2012, 12:23 pm
@ryecatcher-311:
What happened really on 11 Sep 2001?
13 Sep 2012, 12:25 pm
Not sure if we’ll ever be fortunate enough (maybe EOYT) but I’d dig to see a team of:
1. Gurthro Steenkamp
2. Strauss (Bizzy if fit)
3. Oosthuizen
4. Etsebeth
5. Bekker (if 100% fit, if not then Kruger)
6. Brussouw
7. Coetzee
8. Vermeulen
9. Hougaard
10. Goosen
11. Habana
12. Steyn
13. Jordaan
14. Pietersen
15. Lambie
16. Beast
17. Burden
18. Cilliers
19. Kruger/Botha
20. Alberts
21. Pienaar
22. De Jongh
13 Sep 2012, 12:27 pm
@Horings-310:
Interesting, suppose the scary thing is it could work the other way and mean that these international scouts that are clearly looking more and more at our youngsters might start competing with our Unions in order to secure talent when these guys are still at school (kinda like the USA offers Waterpolo/basketball/swimming scholarships). Given they have more financial clout and could offer attractive university scholarships it might become a bit tricky going foward. Not easy times, but defintely something had to be done.
13 Sep 2012, 12:30 pm
@Sheriff-318: Oh hell, here we go…
13 Sep 2012, 12:33 pm
@Skeppie-321:
13 Sep 2012, 12:34 pm
@scrumfan-319: Not a bad team, I would still prefer Hougie on the wing and would need to see if Coenie can play TH properly before including him and Jordaan would also need to prove a few thing first.
13 Sep 2012, 12:35 pm
Why is everybody so serious today?
Surely today is arguably the best day of the week. The weekend lies untouched ahead of us all.
And weekend is rugby time and the Boks may surprise us with a win in Dunedin.
13 Sep 2012, 12:37 pm
@Sheriff-318: Oh I know that one, yip it’s clearly etched into my mind…Wynand “Meisiekind” Olivier passed a ball, and took an outside gap in the same game…it was ridiculous.
13 Sep 2012, 12:38 pm
@Sheriff-318: Columbus discovered America.Is this a test???Twin Towes.Do I pass?
13 Sep 2012, 12:39 pm
Towes = Towers
13 Sep 2012, 12:42 pm
To lighten up the mood a bit…..
Ek haat dit wanneer mense hulle onnosel hou met simpel vrae wat my teen die mure uit kan dryf!
Net nou die dag gaan koop ek ‘n sak EPOL hondekos by Pick ‘n Pay en ewe, terwyl ek so in die ry staan, vra ‘n vrou agter my of ek ‘n hond het.
Nou kyk, net daar voel dit asof my derms draai van kwaadgeid, en my brein begin skree soos staalwol teen ‘n swart bord.
Sommer aspris, sê ek vir haar, “Nee ek het nie ‘n hond nie – ek begin met die EPOL dieët.”
Sy lyk toe nogal soos die basterbrak in ons straat, terwyl sy haar kop draai en my snaaks aanloer, maar ek gaan ewe aan:
“Eintlik weet ek dat ek nie weer op die dieët moet gaan nie, laaskeer het ek in die hospitaal beland. Ek het wakker geword in intensieweeenheid met pype wat in en uit elke gaaitjie in my lyf uitkom.”
Sy staar my aan met ‘n mengsel van skok en belangstelling terwyl ek aangaan. “Maar ek het 22kg verloor in drie weke en dit was beslis die moeite werd.”
Ek gaan toe aan en vertel haar dat die EPOL dieët eintlik volledig voedsaam is met al die vitamiene en minerale wat mens nodig het vir elke dag. En hoe mooi my hare deesdae blink.
Haar oë hardloop oor my voorkop na my boskaas en ek voel die simpel ironie dat sy glo. Ja sowaar, glo sy als wat ek sê!!
Ek gaan aan om haar te vertel; al wat jy doen is om jou broeksakke vol te maak met EPOL soggens en jy eet een of twee wanneer jy ookal honger voel. Hulle swel mos 5x hulle grootte uit en vul jou magie sommer vinnig! Dit is so maklik!
Teen hierdie tyd luister al wat ‘n persoon is na my storie – veral die man wat agter die uitvraerige vrou staan.
Heel geskok vra die vrou my toe of ek in die hospital beland het van voedselvergiftiging.”
Ek antwoord haar toe ewe kalm en verbaas: “Nee”, sê ek “ek het in die straat gesit en my gat gelek, toe ry ‘n kar my raak.”
EK DOG DIE OU AGTER HAAR KRY ‘N HARTAANVAL VAN DIE LAG!
SIMPEL VROU – NOU VRA EK? VIR WIE DINK SY KOOP EK DIE VERDOMDE HONDEKOS!!!!!!
13 Sep 2012, 12:45 pm
I hear Heyneke is blaming the backline players for not making the most of their opportunities…. Someone please tell me how these players are supposed to make the most of their “opportunities” under the current game plan where the ball never reaches them? Or is he saying talking about the 50/50 chances when Morne kicks the ball up? Are those really opportunities?
13 Sep 2012, 12:45 pm
@Jeraldjay-328: LOL
13 Sep 2012, 12:46 pm
@Jeraldjay-328:
Klink soos Nataniël materiaal
13 Sep 2012, 12:50 pm
What has changed Keo?
Boks are playing winning rugby
This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 11th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
The Springboks have experience and rugby intelligence to go with their physicality, writes Keo in his weekly Business Day column.
Not enough credit is being given to the South Africans. The All Blacks said it after taking a beating in Bloemfontein and Durban. And the Wallabies said it after taking a pasting in Cape Town.
Both visiting camps agreed that it was a darn good Bok side, certainly the best South African side they had played in the last decade.
South African supporters also need to start recognising the quality of this side while they are still together because there will come a time in the future when we yearn for the quality of player wearing green at the moment, the leadership of John Smit, Victor Matfield, Fourie du Preez and Jean de Villiers and the no frills kind of wins we have seen in the last three weekends.
Springbok coach Peter de Villiers a year ago wanted to tamper with the Boks’ winning formula. He berated Jake White’s World Cup winners as robots that couldn’t think for themselves and said it was unacceptable that the ball never went to left wing Bryan Habana in the World Cup final.
De Villiers’s ego undid him as much as the Wallabies and All Blacks did a year ago. This year De Villiers reverted to the formula that works for this particular bunch of players and he has enjoyed three convincing home wins against the All Blacks and Wallabies. For that he needs to be applauded and not mocked.
Had De Villiers continued with the naive notion that the guys play what is in front of themwithout any structure or framework the results this year would have been very different. The Boks may have scored more tries, but so too would the opposition.
The dynamic of this Bok side feeds off structure and knowing who does what and when. They rely on brutal defence, the most imposing lineout in the game and a halfback kicking game that can’t be matched at the moment. The Boks are at their most potent when they keep it simple on attack and play risk-free rugby. They are a side blessed with the players who can turn defence into attack.
The team’s greatest attribute is its physicality, but what this side has more than any South African team since readmission is experience and rugby intelligence to go with the physicality. Each guy knows what to do and that is the result of most of them being together for six years.
Neither New Zealand nor Australia wanted to look foolish on attack but incredible defence and the most accurate field-kicking game turned these professionals into bumbling schoolboys. Defence is a skill, as much as attack is, and one of the most difficult skills to master is the line kicking game.
It may not look pretty, but it is effective, and I for one want a Bok team that wins consistently playing to its strengths rather than one that appears to entertain, but merely plays into the grateful and winning hands of Australia and New Zealand.
Fourie du Preez’s ability to read the game and Habana and JP Pietersen’s chase of the kick spells intelligent rugby and not boring rugby. If New Zealand and Australia had players with those skills they’d be playing it exactly the same way.
The lineout duo of Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha reduced New Zealand and Australia’s lineout to rubble and that took all the potency out of the visitors’ attack.
New Zealand and Australia rely on the lineout as their primary platform of attack. Against the Boks this was never possible.
There has been no premature celebration from the Boks, but the criticism that they are still short of being the complete side is nonsense. They have shown they can play the most extravagant rugby. Take the effort against Samoa at the 2007 World Cup and against the Wallabies in Johannesburg last year.
When it is on they have the qualities to put on a show. For now they have shown us just what a quality side they are in playing a brand that was necessary to hold serve, and that needs to be commended and not dismissed as players and coaches lacking ambition.
13 Sep 2012, 12:50 pm
@ryecatcher-326:
Not at all, reflect on it in the meantime
We will deal with it another time, I agree with Jeraldjay – the mood is too serious today
13 Sep 2012, 12:50 pm
@Horings-310: “thereby ensuring that any player who plays at that level, is automatically frozen and can’t qualify for another international team”
Isn’t that the sole prerogative of IRB?
13 Sep 2012, 12:53 pm
@lesiba-329: I may take some flak here as I have backed HM and still do but on this point I cannot argue. To blame the outside backs when our pack has been under perfoming and our 9 and 10 kick any available ball to the heavens it’s pretty unfair to blame 12, 13, 14 and 15…
13 Sep 2012, 12:53 pm
Pity about this outright fckup of a Bok coach who deserves to get hiding after hiding after hiding till he succumbs to a little bit of common sense reality..
He don’t deserve to win ANY games.. he is a disaster of a useless self serving moron.. and I reckon the players feel his sense of depressed desperation.
Time the Ab’s dish up a massive hiding here though this AB team got a few weaknesses of their own.
SO the question boils down to HOW to retain some Bok backbone of prestige and patriotism while at the same time wanting the straight jacket of archaic self engrossed despotic idiocy to get burned at the stake of its own self centered ideology.
Meyer must Fck OFF.. and the bigger the loss on Saturday the better..
now HOW do these players actually weigh up the desire to get RID of the outright moronic despotic idiot of a coach at the same time as trying to put their best foot forward for the sake of the country and the team,,, very difficult equation to balance out..
if I’m Jean De Villiers and the players collective I do a 49-0 and hope the powers that be recognize whats needed to get this country back on the right track to WINNING rugby..
Goddamn its been MORE than a DECADE of garbage already.. WHEN WILL the wheels of progress ACTUALLY start TURNING..
Get the GARBAGE OUT.. before this ****** sinks us ALL.!!!
13 Sep 2012, 12:56 pm
Pienaar is the WRONG choice for scrum half.. with Pienaar controlling the pace of the back line there is NO HOPE in HELL that ANY back line move gets off on ANY front foot..
This is STAGNANT SA GARBAGE rugby like there has NEVER been BEFORE..
Worse than Streauli, worse than White, the WORST spate of garbage back track Bok rugby to the UTTER arse end of the universe and back…
13 Sep 2012, 12:57 pm
@lesiba-329: no, he is talking about the opportunities where the boks had a 3 on 2 overlap with jdv and habana facing digby ioane and morne steyn instead of drawing the man and passing the ball down the line he changed direction and went towards 3 aussie players and fecked up a SURE try.
he is talking about mvovo and jdv, BOTH being high tackled by adam ashley cooper out to touch with the tryline wide open…
he is talking about the boks spurning a moerse overlap as francois steyn decide to skip pass to habana who got tackled and smothered instead of getting the ball through the hands and STRETCHING the defence…
13 Sep 2012, 12:58 pm
Of course Mourn Stain agrees with the “kick with a purpose” gameplan it’s all the mediocre fuckr knows. This dumb plonka Heineken Mania better persist with InZANE and Stain as long as this extinct fossilized calcified game-plan is in place. I’d rather see Lambie and Goosen in their mid-twenties under a brand new coach with a modern game-plan than have them ruined and fuckd around.
13 Sep 2012, 12:58 pm
Hope AB’s fck this abysmal NONENTITY of a game Plan RIGHT OUT the back door.. NEVER to return EVER again..
KILL the goddamn shrunken Bok legacy.. KILL it OFF once and for all and kill it GOOD.!!
13 Sep 2012, 12:59 pm
@Transformation-332:
Transie its a SA Rugby fark up.
Meyer should have coached that team and PDV or AC the current team.
13 Sep 2012, 13:01 pm
@fitz1ella-337I’m also sick of seeing Pienaars fucken slow, telegraphed distribution at scrum-half. But he’s the man for Heineken Mania’s game-plan, he kicks alot and… well, he kicks alot too.
13 Sep 2012, 13:03 pm
Subject: Whites own mines
White South Africans have reacted with amazement and joy to Julius Malema’s revelation last week that they are all super-rich mine owners. “We thought we were just over-indebted, over-taxed middle-class wage slaves, but it turns out we’re all millionaire tycoons!” said one delighted white person. “Screw this soul-crushing desk job: I’m off to claim my mine!”
Malema, former President of the ANC Youth League and current President of the League Of Opportunistic Political Parasites, has been vocal in his claims that the country’s mines are still owned by “boere”, and that all whites are fabulously wealthy, mostly thanks to the mining industry.
This morning the country’s white citizens were resigning en masse from office jobs, schools, small businesses and middle-management posts, as news spread about their previously unknown wealth.
“I’m so grateful to Julius,” gushed Barry Beige. “If he hadn’t done the research, crunched the numbers over who owns what, I would never have discovered that I am in fact a super-rich capitalist and not a junior web designer with 20 days of leave per year.”
However, farmer Kosie Kunsmis said he was confused. “Julius said that ‘boere’ own all the mines. Does he mean farmers or white people, because I know fokkol about mining. Come to think of it, I know fokkol about farming too, but at least my family have known fokkol about it for ten generations, so we’ve managed to be consistent.”
Malema’s revelations have also unsettled South Africa’s black mine owners, with many now wondering whether they are in fact white.
“Julius has been pretty clear that black people don’t own mines,” said platinum magnate, Nouveau Riche-Romotswe, adding that she has been checking herself daily for signs of whiteness, such as a love of dogs and cats, and a deeply rooted belief that everything was about to go to ****.
“It’s really confusing because I’ve always had a soft spot for pets, and since Zuma came to power I’ve believed that everything is about to go to ****, so does that mean I’ve been a closet white all along? I just don’t know any more.”
Meanwhile, South Africa’s small group of whites who were super-rich before Malema’s revelations are set to lodge a complaint against him for turning the spotlight on their wealth.
“The blighter has gone completely off the script,” explained someone who is too rich to have a name. “The way it’s supposed to go is that we pay the politicians to keep us invisible, the politicians keep the workers uneducated so they’re easily manipulated, and then we wait until they’re so poor that they’ll work 16 hours a day for a potato.
“But all this talk of our money, well, it’s just not cricket.”
Vasbyt Ouboet. Afrika is nie vir sissies nie.
13 Sep 2012, 13:03 pm
@fitz1ella-340: I’m with you, the closer this Satrudays match is under the kick and pray the more fuckd the future of Bok rugby.
13 Sep 2012, 13:05 pm
Meyer should have had his darling FdP and Matfield and Bakkies and Schalk and Smit and Wynand and Liefling and Morne at his beck and call..
Meyer is going to FCK UP the youthful rugby enterprise that is coming through the system..
PdV would have been 10000% BETTER coach for this current generation.. PdV was the WRONG coach for that static fckup of a JW rugby strategically BENT idiocy that fck’d OUT the WC in 2011
Kick Chase, Kick, CHASE, KICK Chase some MORE..
KILL it AB’s .. KILL IT MORS DOOD .!!!!
13 Sep 2012, 13:09 pm
@Spiesisworthless1-342: @Spiesisworthless1-344:
Let it be the BIGGEST f’ng EMBARRASSING LOSS EVER to be metered out on this hapless bunch of bokkies heading off into the slaughter..
Pity that Carter and Sonny Bill aren’t there to actually put the BOOT into this BOK degeneration for f’ng EVER.!!!
Pienaar can sit around like FdP and pick his nose at the base of the scrum.. I am hoping that AB’s decimate this Bok FCKUP of a game plan forever and ever AMEN.!!!
13 Sep 2012, 13:11 pm
@Jeraldjay-328: Sies vir jou, man! Die vrou (tannie?) agter jou wou net ‘n geselsie aanknoop…of dalk vir jou op chat.
Plaas jou in haar posisie – wat as jy agter ‘n warm blondine met ‘n sak EPOL gestaan het?
13 Sep 2012, 13:12 pm
@fitz1ella-345:
Dagg and Jane are probably practicing their highball counter attacking moves as I’m positing this.
If our defenses aren’t line up and we miss 1st time tackles its overs gidovers.
13 Sep 2012, 13:13 pm
““I’m a big believer in a guy sticking to his strengths, and I think Morne is a great player in his own right. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, so I don’t think that he needs to change the way he plays. It’s more about the outside backs who must use their opportunities,” Meyer said.
This is my ceiling. This stmt does it for me. Now I no longer back HM.
13 Sep 2012, 13:14 pm
Sounding like the poor man’s Divvy now
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