Preview: All Blacks vs Springboks
13 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE analyses the key match-ups and picks the winner in Saturday’s Test.
Oh dear. The All Blacks. Dunedin. Massive pressure on the Springboks and their coach. I’ve seen this movie before. It ended in fairytale style in 2008 with Ricky Januarie’s late chip and collect to seal the win. Sadly there’ll be no replication of that memorable and rare result come Saturday.
Springbok victories in this fixture have predominantly been built on forward dominance and this Bok pack simply doesn’t possess the physicality, industry or experience in the measures they need to trouble their hosts in general play or at the set pieces.
The former will be particularly decisive. The Blacks boast some of the game’s best strike runners among their heavies, Kieran Read the finest of them. Their ability to offload in the tackle amplifies their threat and has ensured the Blacks’ attacks have a fluidity that is hard to counter. Nullifying their impact would require a cohesive, brutal and accurate effort, the likes of which Argentina achieved in Wellington last week. The Pumas stopped the Blacks at the gainline and harassed them at the breakdown for the bulk of the contest, ensuring a scrappy recycle to their potent back division. The Springboks’ second half effort in Perth in this regard doesn’t stir confidence and with new second and back row combinations, their synergy is sure to be affected.
I called for the inclusion of Francois Louw, but stressed that his value would only become apparent if the Springboks were consistently bossing the tackle fight. I don’t think they will, although Louw’s breakdown work will limit the damage this deficiency has the potential to promote.
Their struggles will extend to the scrums, where the Blacks have generally held the upper hand. The Springboks’ defensive lineout work used to be a cause of concern to the Blacks but they won’t be losing sleep at the prospect of having to negotiate the challenge of Juandre Kruger and co.
How will their attack fare? I fear not much better. Their heavies have failed to inspire as platform-laying forces and the absence of Eben Etzebeth – the one player who made a consistent impact at the gainline – further undermines their cause. Their kickers will seldom have the luxury of time and space to launch their bombs, and the Blacks’ high quality broken field runners have the capacity to hurt them for poorly placed punts.
I think the Springboks’ desperation and the emotion the rivalry evokes will translate into an improved performance. However, that improvement needs to be significant to close the gap in quality between the sides and put them in a position to win. It won’t be.
Prediction: All Blacks by 12
All Blacks – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Springboks – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
1,091 Comments
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13 Sep 2012, 13:14 pm
Guys,
Don’t be so hard on Morne.
Wasn’t he man-of-the-match just the other day, against Argentina?
13 Sep 2012, 13:18 pm
@willievz-347:
If it was a hot blond it would be the perfect ice breaker.
13 Sep 2012, 13:19 pm
@Jeraldjay-348:
The pity is its probably going to be a close encounter with AB’s choking at the prospect of meeting their old arch rivals in a neutral new ground and with a few soft option takers like Weepu of their own..
I’m actually praying for the opposite.. I am hoping first kick into the skies and they come swarming back and score within first 5 minutes,, and then DON’T let UP for a second after that..
OBLITERATE this KICK CHASE TRASH FOREVER
DESTROY IT..
Just like Wallabies ALMOST Destroyed the garbage under White in 2006 but it raised its pathetic ugly head again to RULE SA rugby for A FURTHER 6 years till NOW.. THIS TIME juts KILL this TRASH FOREVER and EVER ..
please I beseech thee AV’s … FOREVER f’ng MORE.. AMEN !!!
13 Sep 2012, 13:20 pm
Now I’m starting to hope the boks drill the ABs – far too much arrogance going down here
come Boks – there still some decent players in the pack even if a long way from optimal
13 Sep 2012, 13:21 pm
@hanneslom-349: Havent gleaned one bit of value out of ANY of his statements to date. As generic and dull as they come, and more often than not contradicted by his future actions.
13 Sep 2012, 13:22 pm
‘Unrealistic’ to keep all SA talent – Roux
——————————————————————————–
by Brenden Nel 13 September 2012, 11:19
It is an “unrealistic expectation” to think that the South African Rugby Union can keep all its top talent in this country, Saru Chief executive Jurie Roux told supersport.com.
After a season where both Ireland and Scotland have targeted rising talent to play in their local leagues with a view of qualifying for the country, Roux reacted to the latest spate of signings which could well see South Africans qualify for their adopted countries ahead of the 2015 World Cup.
This week former Lions captain Josh Strauss became the latest departure to Glasgow with a view of qualifying for Scotland. Later this year, another two South Africans – former Cheetah Richardt Strauss and former WP No 8 Robbie Diack will qualify to play for Ireland and could well face the Springboks in November on their end-of-year tour.
Ireland have adopted a policy of searching out top young talent to place with Irish provinces, and who are financially assisted by the Irish Rugby Union.
Bulls flanker CJ Stander was the first such player to sign this year, and has professed to be unable to turn down the massive financial offer he was given to go to Ireland.
Other than the former SA under-20 captain, WP winger Danie Poolman has also been lured to Ireland, as has lock Quinn Roux, although the latter’s agents insist he will return to the Stormers next year to continue his development there.
There have been others, with Lion Jacobie Adriaanse and Kings lock Johan Snyman both signing for the Scarletts in Wales and former Cheetahs tighthead WP Nel currently with Edinburgh and also eyeing a qualification for Scotland later this year.
While player movement abroad is nothing new to South Africans, especially in a professional era, there is a growing concern that the Home Unions are systematically targeting young South African talent, using the lure of the Pound and Euro, as mechanisms to have them qualify for the said country.
Australia has also sent scouts to schools weeks in South Africa, and has, on a lesser level, tried to recruit young South African talent. In addition to this, former Springbok coach Jake White is currently searching for a lock to contract to the Brumbies with a view to playing for Australia in the next few years.
Despite this, Saru CEO Jurie Roux believes the danger is not as apparent and says is it unrealistic to expect a country such as South Africa to keep all its talent.
“It would be preferable to keep all players in SA but that is an unrealistic expectation as we actually have more talented players than our market can bear the cost of,” Roux told supersport.com.
“But we have also had success in our policy of keeping overseas-based players in the Springbok mix and they have returned home in due course, rather than extending overseas contracts.
“Players who do not earn selection for the Junior Springboks and go overseas may have aspirations to play international rugby for other nations but, during that qualification period, the Springbok coach would also have the option of selecting them if they were thought good enough to reach Springbok standard.”
Saru has rather opted to nominate the SA under-20 side as the “second side” – thereby ensuring that any player who plays at that level, is automatically frozen and can’t qualify for another international team.
Roux says in any case, the results of young players heading overseas have been “patchy”.
“Young players going overseas to make a career and play international rugby are not a new phenomenon and, to be fair, the results have been patchy. It’s probably the players who went to over there for a life experience and to play rugby – such as Mike Catt and Pieter de Villiers – who are the ones to have made a success of it.
“The club market will drive the movement of players and New Zealand has had some success in retaining players such as Carter and McCaw by central contracting, but it is not a ‘magic bullet’ and many, many more have taken their chances overseas, most recently Sonny Bill Williams.
“This year we have nominated the SA Under-20 team as our second ranked national team, which means those players’ futures are tied to the Springboks.”
In the end it seems we may lose some players, and some countries may well succeed when investing in South African youth.
But if Saru’s new selection structures do their job – with the same selection policies from junior to Springbok level – then that loss will be minimised, and Bok rugby continue to reap the fruits of local talent for years to come
13 Sep 2012, 13:23 pm
@Transformation-338:
Fair points but looking at all the games that Heyneke has been in charge of, I would argue that the backline play has been atrocious under his spell. For me, he seems to be concentrating too much on the forwards and the kicking game. What is being done by him to ensure that our backs can actually plan and execute try REAL scoring opportunities? (chasing up and unders for me is not really opportunities, even if the wings get the ball, they can’t really do anything with it!).
I would go as far as saying that our backs are so unfamiliar with being given the ball, when SA is on the attack, that when they eventually do get the ball, they’re so shocked they don’t know what to do with it! Not only that, because the backs have so FEW opportunities to play with the ball during attack, their failures are blown out of proportion when they present themselves. How many times have Habana and Mvovo been given the ball when SA has been on the offensive? The ONE time Mvovo gets given the ball, he did mess up. In some people’s eyes, that’s seen as a 100% failure rate forgetting that he barely gets the ball often enough to prove himself.
Our backline players are being unfairly treated and ignored under this coach’s reign.
13 Sep 2012, 13:26 pm
Meyer must IMPLODE
it is OBVIOUS this f’ng outright MORON has absolutely ZERO clue about WTF he’s actually doing..
and I seriously think this Bok camp is an UNHAPPY camp having to go AGAINST their better judgement and follow this despotic GOON all the way INTO the goddamn slaughter..
I’m pretty certain there are some VERY unhappy players in that squad KNOWING they are heading in the WRONG direction and are unable to do SQUAT about it…
If Saru has given this goddamn idiot FOUR WHOLE years to fck UP.. like they did with White and PdV and now ANOTHER 4 whole years of MADNESS.. then Ab’s must DO the dirty on Saturday..
DESTROY this f’ng MORON right OUT his misery and send the fckup IDIOT into the lunatic asylum he belongs in.
13 Sep 2012, 13:26 pm
@lesiba-357: Spot on.
13 Sep 2012, 13:27 pm
@Spiesisworthless1-359: Except no-one really knows what do with the ball anymore even the forwards. It’s been a long time between drinks (2nd test test vs England).
13 Sep 2012, 13:28 pm
Flip jannie and Strauss are kak but it’s tge best loosetrio that’s taken to the field all year – pity they not quite match-sharp but the Boks might come out like they did vs engeland and then the ABs might as well kiss their *** koebaai.
13 Sep 2012, 13:28 pm
@fitz1ella-353:
If somehow our loosies can come to the party.
Maybe Vermeulen hits his straps, Alberts shows the form he did against the Stormers in Durban and Flo disrupts their momentum and steals the odd ball against the run of play.
I never want any Bok team to loose Skop, never, no matter who the coach is but if we have to learn the hard way, then so be it.
13 Sep 2012, 13:29 pm
Boks must get DRILLED..
AB’s must send this garbage Meyer OSTRICH into OBLIVION..
Its ENOUGH of the back track pedaling.. ENOUGH of this head in the sand day dream GARBAGE..
Kill this trash and KILL it GOOD..!!!
13 Sep 2012, 13:31 pm
@hanneslom-349:
Agreed.
13 Sep 2012, 13:32 pm
The HM era seems to be stillborn…..
Tough being a Bok supporter last 3 years….
13 Sep 2012, 13:33 pm
@fitz1ella-363:
Hahahahahahahahahaha, your vents are killing me
But I can’t disagree with you at all, the best thign to happen this weekend is for us to get thrashed so that Heyneke gets a wake-up call (at worst) or gets fired soon (at best). Even ostriches are not this thick in the head.
13 Sep 2012, 13:33 pm
Boks must drill the ABs and drill em good and tgen we can all toast marshmelliows.
13 Sep 2012, 13:36 pm
@Transformation-332: WellI’llbedamned. And he was not the only scribe at the time to declare his allegiance to the vokmaarvoort flag.
How I wish Divvy had shown the scribes, the senior players and the nay-saying public his middle finger at the time and continued with what he knew was the right way forward.
We now have Meyer blaming Frans Steyn and JDV for all the backline woes (yes, they are guilty to an extent) and raving fanatically about Morne in the press….
I have fallen down the fuckingrabbithole. I wake to find the Mad Hatter feeding the Marchfuckinghare grapes from the Rugby Championship trophy, whilst the Queen of Hearts does the tango with Kieran Read…..
There is a Tim Burton movie in this somewhere…..Johnny Depp to play Morne Steyn or Heyneke?
13 Sep 2012, 13:40 pm
Its unreasonable to expect Rene Naylor to do the physio work, manage the substitutions and coach the team. Women can multi-task however this is to big an ask
AB’s to win by +25
Around AB 37 – SA 12
13 Sep 2012, 13:41 pm
@cab-202:
“99″
why ?
13 Sep 2012, 13:43 pm
@The Sharks rugby pedigree is packaged as dog food-368:
“I have fallen down the fuckingrabbithole. I wake to find the Mad Hatter feeding the Marchfuckinghare grapes from the Rugby Championship trophy, whilst the Queen of Hearts does the tango with Kieran Read. There is a Tim Burton movie in this somewhere…..Johnny Depp to play Morne Steyn or Heyneke?”
Hahahahahahahahahahahahhaha
13 Sep 2012, 13:45 pm
Boks are going to pull off one helluva jaw-dropper here and thump the AB’s in Dunedin. Well, not thump as in a 20 point margin, but win comfortably enough for it not to be labeled a fluke.
Key players, with big games, will be Pienaar, Louw and Habana.
Some of you will have to find something else about which to kak in your cornflakes after the weekend.
13 Sep 2012, 13:45 pm
Donkeys egg – aka panther
99 and skinner is what it took – premeditated cos you were getting beaten up fair and square upfront.
13 Sep 2012, 13:46 pm
**** sometimes I just don’t know.
Reading around social media and some blogs how people want Heyneke to piss off because the Boks play boring, structures, kick-chase bullshit showing no skills and no interest to play what is in front of them. Bulls rugby, dinosaur rugby, call it what you will.
Question though – isn’t this what Peter de Villiers wanted to bring to Bok rugby 4 years ago and no-one would give him the time of day?
Does this mean Peter was a genius 4 years ahead of the average Bok supporter or journalist in this country?
13 Sep 2012, 13:46 pm
If Meyer some how gets out this oblivious day dream he’s rooted his head in.. if by some small miracle AB’s do NOT wipe the floor with his archaic 19 voetsek rugby philosophy then we are STUCK with this SH’T for another FOUR goddamn excruciating years..
AB’s must FCK this trash up FOREVER and EVER AMEN..!!
KILL it VREK !!!
That is the ONLY hope we ever have of escaping out of the DOWNWARD spiraling vortex…
Just like White should have been ROASTED ALIVE for his FCKUP 49-0 NEDELAAG .. Meyer must get his f’ng ANNIHILATION on Saturday…
Dagg and Jane and Cruden and Savea and Nonu and Smith to run on 9 tries between them with ZIPPEDY DO from Morne and co…
Pity that JdV has to captain this garbage I KNOW he is torn between a f’ng ROCK spider and a hard place.. BUT WTF can the poor dude do..
Just GRIN and f’ng BARE it.. and go out INTO the ambush and get DRILLED be the scapegoat MARTYR and do the dastardly service for your country..
LOSE so that the SH’T AGTEREND of a game plan gets DECIMATED to HELL FOREVER..
13 Sep 2012, 13:47 pm
@lesiba-371: Lesbia? Is that some kind of universal collective term for them?
13 Sep 2012, 13:48 pm
@katman-376: Oh disregard, I see it’s Lesiba. Is that a camp in the Kruger?
13 Sep 2012, 13:49 pm
372 katman fk I will laugh – except ffs he needs to get rid of this kick kick kick **** – kirchener is even worse than steyn, it’. Draft 5m and then HOOF every time without fail.
13 Sep 2012, 13:50 pm
Boks if u play good, then good on you but, get beat still so Hm will cry under the psi when we go home and then he may finally get selections right and gameplans
13 Sep 2012, 13:50 pm
@PissAnt-374: P Divvy saw the future, and for his sins he was crucified by every ‘kenner’ in this country…..
Divvy’s only sin, was backing down.
13 Sep 2012, 13:50 pm
@fitz1ella-375: Hahhahahahaha third paragraph from the bottom is a classic.
13 Sep 2012, 13:53 pm
@PissAnt-374: Yip that sums it UP
PdV was the genius that WASN’T given the TIME of DAY to drag this archaic BACKWARD GARBAGE JW instilled trash heap of a game plan out the MORASS of extinct rugby and the senior PLAYERS and public rooted in the FALSE illusion that kick chase trash is our rugby MOTTO combined to RETREAT into the laager and cocoon of brain dead and buried KLAAR GELAG VREK rugby traditional IDIOCY..
NOW we are STUCK with this SH’T because we so happened to FLUKE a 5 penalty to 2 lucky packet NONENTITY of a dream in heaven WC where NOBODY played any real rugby to speak of.
Meyer should have inherited that GARBAGE 5 penalty to 2 kick chase moronic dream.. and PdV should be the architect of the REAL rugby we supposed to be pursuing..
But we are STILL stuck in archaic Boere brilliante brain dead IDIOCY since Pa FELL OFF the bus…
13 Sep 2012, 13:54 pm
@cab-378: Kirchner is the first guy I’ll replace. Either of the two Lions fullbacks – Coetzee and Taute – offer real attack from the back and only kick when the situation REALLY calls for it, and when nothing else is on. But I still think we’re going to surprise them with our intensity and relentlessness.
13 Sep 2012, 13:56 pm
@cab-367: I always want the Boks to win. Nothing would make me happier than a beatdown in NZ. However, I don’t want Heyneke Meyer to win….because a decent performance by the Boks (and Morne Steyn….heaven help us)will see Meyer arrogantly believing his own delusions…..
I’m certain he has his victory speech down pat already: ‘You see the players executed my gameplan correctly – we are on the right track.’
I would love a Bok win, but I would also hate a Bok win as you do realise Morne Steyn will be starting at 10 until he is 45.
I want the players to win……not the coach.
13 Sep 2012, 13:56 pm
JdV must lead a rebellion, or he is not representing the interests of the team.
13 Sep 2012, 13:57 pm
Caught between a rock spider and a hard place, that’s classic.
13 Sep 2012, 13:57 pm
@Spiesisworthless1-381:
I’m actually going through fitz1ella’s posts, the dude has me in stiches
Good thing his points, other than being hilarious, have a lot of validity in them.
13 Sep 2012, 13:58 pm
@WP-Forever-386:
13 Sep 2012, 13:59 pm
Three interrelated problems:
1. Pi$$ poor game plan
2. Pi$$ poor implementation of the pi$$ poor game plan
3. Pi$$ poor players poorly implementing a pi$$ poor game plan
All Blacks by 30. At least.
Sorry katman but you shouldn’t be smoking a pipe this early in the day.
13 Sep 2012, 13:59 pm
PDV rated Lobberts,Adi & January and called Earl the Tiger Woods of Rugby … that there is enough to throw this crazy c*nt with the Marikana strikers so that they can torture the f out of him!
13 Sep 2012, 13:59 pm
A braindead run like gekapte hoeners has been done twice before – with devasatibgly kak results – if meyer gives up kick kick kick – he could be outstanding but if he doesn’t he’ll have a record as bad as carel dup and harry viljoen, maybe not as bad, but still pretty bad.
13 Sep 2012, 13:59 pm
Naka is waiting in the wings.
13 Sep 2012, 14:00 pm
I am hoping Boks get Fck’d to HELL
Come on AB’s DO IT !!
KILL these fckup Boks GOOD .. Kill this trash heap boergat moron in his MOER.. KILL this sh’t FOREVER so that SA rugby can get OUT of the fckup STRAIGHT JACKET these boertjie morons like cab and katman are so comfortable believing in their fckup traditional garbage legacy..
it is TIME to GET OUT from under the ROCK of oblivion.. Time for SA rugby to EVOLVE and get SHOT of the brain dead Morons who are busy stifling it to DEATH..
Come come AB’s do NOT let us down now.. KILL this garbage TRASH heap of a dead end brainless moronic idiocy Mors dood FOR f’ng EVER..!!!
13 Sep 2012, 14:00 pm
Take it easy Skop
13 Sep 2012, 14:03 pm
@fitz1ella-393: You sound like you’ve been skipping your ***** again. You know what happened last time.
Anyway, chat to Gwantie about his Namibia jersey. I believe he’s disgruntled there too and is willing to offload at a good price.
13 Sep 2012, 14:04 pm
@Brads-252:
get your facts right if youre going to quote stats
’92
13 Sep 2012, 14:04 pm
@Jinx2-385:
Like Smit taught JW the lesson when he smilingly went DOWN by 49-0 .. JdV must take the loss on his shoulders and capitulate WORSE..
It is ENOUGH of this outright trash garbage.. ENOUGH
JdV is TORN between leading this team into hell for the sake of WHAT..!!
Lead an insurrection.. the c’unts did it to PdV for a FAR worse cause than this.. KILL this garbage TRASH of a dead and buried neanderthal game plan..
JdV must stand up and OVERRULE this dumb fck MORON of a clueless coach or else take the LOSS on the chin and CAPITULATE as BIG as he POSSIBLY CAN.. for the sake of the generations to follow on after him..
13 Sep 2012, 14:05 pm
384 Sharks
nah I don’t like this ganging up ott – he’s become a total underdog and while it’s no bad thing he learns a few lessons I ain’t hoping for ABs to drill us – no fkn chance of that happening. That man ain’t no idiot – he’s got a moerse good record and established one ofvthe strongest provincial sides the world has seen – but he better start showing more variety – biulls are not tge boks – brussow and several other stormers players should be selected and this kick kick kick **** shelved – otherwise ge is going to get fkd up and will only have himself to blame
13 Sep 2012, 14:05 pm
@katman-395: ***** = e n e m a
13 Sep 2012, 14:06 pm
I guess HM has stopped talking to Keo. Below is an excerpt from another site…
Meyer also tried to justify his decision to persevere with Morne Steyn at fly-half ahead of the exciting Johan Goosen and did not accept that Steyn needed to change his style of play.
“I’m a big believer that a guy should stick to his strengths,” he explained.
“I think Morne is a great player in his own right and he is a guy who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes.
“I don’t think he should change the way he plays, I think it’s more the outside backs who must use their opportunities.
“It’s great to have two slightly different types of 10s because then you can play different types of games.
“Morne has done well for the Boks and I can’t see why he must change.
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