Boks’ massive mission

Boks’ massive mission

14 Sep 2012

RYAN VREDE looks at the trends that could shape the Dunedin Test, with the stats suggesting the Springboks will struggle.

Attack

The facet of play most lamented among Springbok supporters. Heyneke Meyer’s kick-chase approach has failed to work in the manner he has envisioned and the widely held view is that the Springboks have no Plan B, or at least a very ineffective one. Flyhalf Morné Steyn has kicked the 30% of the time he has taken the ball at first receiver – this compared with the All Blacks’ 16%. The Blacks’ flyhalves have passed the ball nearly 68% of the time, while Steyn is down at 56% and runs the ball 13% of the time. The pace, precision and skill with which the Blacks attack has been their strength. Ominously, the Blacks have broken more tackles than they’ve made kicks and have broken more tackles than any team in the tournament. Furthermore, they have made the most successful offloads and clean linebreaks in the tournament, which has been central to their attacking success. The Springboks pale in comparison in these attacking disciplines.

Defence

It is critical that the Springboks boss the gainline and breakdown in a bid to slow the Blacks’ recycle. Their previous showings in the latter have been poor, while their tackling was mediocre at best against Australia in Perth (it had been good before that). The inclusion of Francois Louw at openside flank is a good one, but his effectiveness rests heavily on the team’s gainline punch. The Springboks average nearly 16 missed tackles per game. Their previous opponents haven’t possessed the capacity to punish them in the manner the Blacks will. They simply have to cut down this figure. The Blacks miss around 11 tackles per match, but very few of those in their 22m. The platform the Springboks’ heavies lay will be crucial if they are to break down this efficient unit.

Errors

In the absence of any attacking creativity or flair, the Springboks will rely heavily on their kick-chase to pressure the All Blacks into penalties and build their score in that manner. However, tellingly, the Blacks’ discipline in their 22m has been exceptional, with the bulk of their indiscretions coming in the zone between their 22 and halfway line (and most of those closer to halfway). Morné Steyn’s goal-kicking form has been inconsistent and from those distances his accuracy will be compromised. Frans Steyn’s gun-boot may be the alternative, although he too hasn’t been too accurate (3 from 8 attempts). The Blacks will want to improve on their penalty count in the opposition’s 22m (24% of their total penalties have been conceded in that zone), while the Springboks are slightly better at 21%. However, they are close to 30% in the zone between the opposition’s 22m and halfway. The Springboks’ biggest problem has been their turnover rate in the red zone, which stands at nearly 43%. That has contributed significantly to struggles and is a facet of play they must improve exponentially to stand a chance of victory. Notably, the Blacks are far better at protecting the ball in this zone, which accounts for their superior try tally. The Springboks have also stolen painfully little (6% of their turnovers) in this area.

The Ref

George Clancy is averaging 3.5 scrum resets per game and is handing out 4.5 scrum infringements (pens and F/K). On average 79% of the time it will be conceded by the defending team. Clancy is handing out an average of 20 penalties per game with the bulk of those coming at the breakdown. On average 7.0 penalties will be inside the 22 and 7.0 penalties will become kicks at goal.

Stats supplied by ruckingoodstats

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267 Comments

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  • 1.trupisero: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 14:59 pm

    kak dragons

  • 2.Finfan: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 15:08 pm

    For those who don’t want to read this, let me recap:
    Attack:
    Kak
    Defence:
    Kak
    Errors:
    Too many
    The Ref:
    A concern

  • 3.willievz: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 15:48 pm

    George Clancy was also the ref that awarded a yellow card to Jaque Fourie against Australia in 2010.

    By doing this, he climbed on the bandwagon of referees giving out yellow cards to Boks in the first 10 minutes of 3 consecutive tests.

  • 4.gonzo: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 15:49 pm

    How does everyone rate Clancy?

  • 5.gonzo: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 15:53 pm

    @willievz-3: Was it undeserved?

  • 6.willievz: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:03 pm

    @gonzo-5: I think so.

    Maybe more deserved than Danie Rossouw’s card againt the All Blacks a week earlier, however.

    Clancy had a power trip during the Aussie test, also handing out yellows to BJ Botha and Quade Cooper later in the game.

  • 7.TooMuchRugby: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:09 pm

    @Finfan-2:
    Thanks, I thought as much

  • 8.blik: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:12 pm

    @willievz-6: Has Richie Mac ever had a yellow card?

  • 9.willievz: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:23 pm

    @blik-8: Can’t recall him ever receiving one for the All Blacks.

    He has received only a handful for the Crusaders.

  • 10.gonzo: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:23 pm

    @blik-8: Unlikely, I don’t think he’s ever done anything wrong :)

  • 11.Dawn: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:28 pm

    @Finfan-2:

    :lol:

  • 12.Puma: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:28 pm

    @blik-8: Think McCaw picked up a yellow card against the Bulls in the semi of Super Rugby 2007.

  • 13.blik: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:31 pm

    @willievz-9: True, rule 48.1 states that if you are wearing a black jersy, you cannot receive a yellow card.

  • 14.blik: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:33 pm

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  • 15.gonzo: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:36 pm

    @blik-13: 48.2 states Boks players may headbutt without being carded

  • 16.GI POT: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:40 pm

    Flip and/or Jannie to be carded.

    AB loosies will have a field day against a loose trio whose pace reminds one of the famous NZ cricket dibbly dobbler bowlers – Chris Harris, Gavin Larssen and Cairns on one leg.

  • 17.GI POT: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:42 pm

    @gonzo-15:

    Rule 1.1 – You can do what you like as long as you are not seen. Until they brough sighting commissioners into the game

  • 18.willievz: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:52 pm

    @gonzo-15: You mean Keven Mealamu may headbutt without being carded.

    Etzebeth’s “butt” did not even touch Sharpe.

  • 19.blik: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 16:59 pm

    @gonzo-15: Be realistic now. Trying to make a case for the ref favouring the Boks is futile. However, it’s pretty simple to make one for refs/officials favouring the dear ABs.

  • 20.gonzo: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:10 pm

    @blik-19: depends on where you come from and whether you watch the game with one or two eyes

  • 21.gonzo: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:23 pm

    @willievz-18: No doubt, Kevvie should have been carded for the headbutt and he should’ve served a ban for lifting O’Driscoll. But for as many injustices you have against the Boks I could find one against the ABs (although I don”t keep track of them as much as people on here).

  • 22.Marty: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:25 pm

    Have a fantastic weekend chinas.
    Just by the by, I have put R1000 on the Boks to win tomorrow. Games against the AB’s are different – reckon the Boks will surprise everyone.

  • 23.bokfan1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:34 pm

    Woh! Yoh Yoh Yoh! Great article Ryan! When you are not bragging about how well you know Heyneke, and you actually use some facts and stats, your articles are great to read!

  • 24.bokfan1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:36 pm

    @Marty-22: A fantastic one to you too Marty. That is an awesome bet you have placed and Im very proud of you china!

    The depth of love we have for the Boks is amazing. On Monday I wanted to bliksem all of them (metaphorically) and by Friday we all believe they are going to win! :-)

  • 25.bokfan1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:36 pm

    @blik-14: With The Hoff at 10

  • 26.bokfan1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:46 pm

    Well thats what a Bok game feels like ne? Morne kicks mostly, then rarely he passes, then even more rarely the Boks get into the 22. But then when that happens mostly the get isolated and turned or lose it in contact.

    Then once or twice in a whole game everything clicks, there is space, there is quick ball and then Morne throws a skip pass to the winger and closes down allt he space the Bok backline had…

    Lets hope tomorrow sees improvements all round. Go Bokke!

  • 27.Boksarenumber1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:51 pm

    ALLBLACKS BY 30

    What do you say guys?

  • 28.Boksarenumber1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:52 pm

    @bokfan1-24:
    Do you honestly believe the Boks are going to win?

  • 29.Boksarenumber1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:53 pm

    BOK side without Brussow is a sick joke and the joke is on us.
    Meyer is a d o o s

  • 30.blik: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:53 pm

    @gonzo-21: “But for as many injustices you have against the Boks I could find one against the ABs (although I don”t keep track of them as much as people on here).”

    How can you give examples if you don’t keep track?

    I am curious anyway, give me a few examples of where the Boks have been favoured in the last 20 years?

  • 31.Boksarenumber1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:55 pm

    @Finfan-2: @gonzo-4:
    The Boks have won the last 4 out of 5 matches that Clancy has reffed.
    Tomorrow it will be 4 out of 6

  • 32.bokfan1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 17:59 pm

    @Boksarenumber1-28: China! I always BELIEVE the Boks will win. I have no choice :-)

    Whether I rationally think the Boks can win and will win is another story :-)
    But they always CAN win and I always WANT them to win and I ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS believe they can win :-)

    Its not very South African to be sulky and negative before the game has even started! Why would I ruin my weekend by not believing? Rather believe and be excited to see the boys in Green & Gold!

    Shoshaloza!

  • 33.Jeraldjay: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:04 pm

    Good luck Bokke.

    We have nothing to lose and everything to win.

    They get flustered when they under pressure. We’ve all seen it happen before.

  • 34.gonzo: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:05 pm

    @blik-30: I don’t keep track but I’ll try my best to remember :)

    No need to go back twenty, just a couple: ref not carding two boks for head butting and JdV for a spear tackle on Ranger.

  • 35.Greenies: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:05 pm

    Hey just give me the 1000bucks, it will be better invested than the bookies…lol
    Wipping, a la cappuchino froth
    30 points sounds about right.
    But then again the whole world loves to see the All Blacks looooooose…
    and yes with this Springbok B team… even better…
    Hamba Gashle bobogaish

  • 36.bokfan1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:06 pm

    @Boksarenumber1-28: Who thought we would win in 2008?

  • 37.W.P: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:06 pm

    Fark the AB’s. Moer them Bokke (but please change the game plan in the process) :)

  • 38.blik: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:14 pm

    @gonzo-34: Are the two head-butts you refer to Etzebeth on the weekend and Bakkies Botha on Jimmy Cowen? Because they both recieved suspensions. And Bakkies got a yellow card for his first transgression of slowing the ball down after the ref saw the head-butt on the big screen. However he warned Richie Mcaw several times for the same offence, but no card.

  • 39.Jeraldjay: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:17 pm

    Wonder how many yellow cards McCaw received in his test match career.

  • 40.W.P: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:20 pm

    Not enough

  • 41.bokfan1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:20 pm

    @Jeraldjay-39: Not enough! And not as many as he has deserved!

  • 42.Boksarenumber1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:22 pm

    @bokfan1-36:
    2008 is a long time ago
    We have the best fetcher in the world and he is not playing
    I hate Meyer and love the Boks
    When we lose i really enjoy watching Heyneke retarded face

  • 43.Boksarenumber1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:28 pm

    The BOKS need new blood. Many of the under 20 world cup team need to be playing and on the bench.. Goosen needs to start. JJ needs to be at centre and we need a real fullback.
    Brussow needs to start
    Not sure who is the bigger clown PDV or Meyer?

  • 44.Boksarenumber1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:29 pm

    @bokfan1-32:
    :) :) :)

  • 45.Big Hit: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:31 pm

    @Boksarenumber1-42: ‘When we lose i really enjoy watching Heyneke retarded face’

    bit harsh, he is constricting the Boks with his gameplan but I don’t think you could say he isn’t a thoroughly nice bloke

  • 46.Robzim: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:35 pm

    @Big Hit-45:

    lol, I am just having a laugh reading some of these comments- should the boks by some miracle or divine intervention win tomorrow then you will see how Heinecke is hailed as the next messiah :)

  • 47.Soda: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:41 pm

    Anyone got a link to Kate Middleton’s b00bs?

  • 48.Big Hit: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:42 pm

    @Robzim-46: the turnaround would be something to behold, tacitus might even reappear

  • 49.i_love_u_bakkiesbotha: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:46 pm

    @blik-38:
    eventually they taper off into a resigned accectance of the fact that no matter how many times they say it to themselves it just never rings right when said out loud.

    but the brains are washed and the memories fuzzy.

    come morning light they’ll say it to themselves all over again… and again…

    but still… no… huh er…

    it still wont ring right when said out loud

    really are a funny lot these kiwis

  • 50.Boksarenumber1: Reply to this comment
    14 Sep 2012, 18:49 pm

    @Big Hit-45:
    PDV was a ‘nice bloke’

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