Boks’ massive mission
14 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE looks at the trends that could shape the Dunedin Test, with the stats suggesting the Springboks will struggle.
Attack
The facet of play most lamented among Springbok supporters. Heyneke Meyer’s kick-chase approach has failed to work in the manner he has envisioned and the widely held view is that the Springboks have no Plan B, or at least a very ineffective one. Flyhalf Morné Steyn has kicked the 30% of the time he has taken the ball at first receiver – this compared with the All Blacks’ 16%. The Blacks’ flyhalves have passed the ball nearly 68% of the time, while Steyn is down at 56% and runs the ball 13% of the time. The pace, precision and skill with which the Blacks attack has been their strength. Ominously, the Blacks have broken more tackles than they’ve made kicks and have broken more tackles than any team in the tournament. Furthermore, they have made the most successful offloads and clean linebreaks in the tournament, which has been central to their attacking success. The Springboks pale in comparison in these attacking disciplines.
Defence
It is critical that the Springboks boss the gainline and breakdown in a bid to slow the Blacks’ recycle. Their previous showings in the latter have been poor, while their tackling was mediocre at best against Australia in Perth (it had been good before that). The inclusion of Francois Louw at openside flank is a good one, but his effectiveness rests heavily on the team’s gainline punch. The Springboks average nearly 16 missed tackles per game. Their previous opponents haven’t possessed the capacity to punish them in the manner the Blacks will. They simply have to cut down this figure. The Blacks miss around 11 tackles per match, but very few of those in their 22m. The platform the Springboks’ heavies lay will be crucial if they are to break down this efficient unit.
Errors
In the absence of any attacking creativity or flair, the Springboks will rely heavily on their kick-chase to pressure the All Blacks into penalties and build their score in that manner. However, tellingly, the Blacks’ discipline in their 22m has been exceptional, with the bulk of their indiscretions coming in the zone between their 22 and halfway line (and most of those closer to halfway). Morné Steyn’s goal-kicking form has been inconsistent and from those distances his accuracy will be compromised. Frans Steyn’s gun-boot may be the alternative, although he too hasn’t been too accurate (3 from 8 attempts). The Blacks will want to improve on their penalty count in the opposition’s 22m (24% of their total penalties have been conceded in that zone), while the Springboks are slightly better at 21%. However, they are close to 30% in the zone between the opposition’s 22m and halfway. The Springboks’ biggest problem has been their turnover rate in the red zone, which stands at nearly 43%. That has contributed significantly to struggles and is a facet of play they must improve exponentially to stand a chance of victory. Notably, the Blacks are far better at protecting the ball in this zone, which accounts for their superior try tally. The Springboks have also stolen painfully little (6% of their turnovers) in this area.
The Ref
George Clancy is averaging 3.5 scrum resets per game and is handing out 4.5 scrum infringements (pens and F/K). On average 79% of the time it will be conceded by the defending team. Clancy is handing out an average of 20 penalties per game with the bulk of those coming at the breakdown. On average 7.0 penalties will be inside the 22 and 7.0 penalties will become kicks at goal.
Stats supplied by ruckingoodstats
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267 Comments
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14 Sep 2012, 18:49 pm
@bokfan1-32: In that case I advise recording the match and watching it at 10pm on Sunday night. It’s the only way in hell you’ll enjoy the weekend.
14 Sep 2012, 18:49 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-49: Funny but true, delusional me thinks, clowded by their love of their dear ABs. Kind of like a mother will never say anything bad about their precious child.
14 Sep 2012, 18:49 pm
@Soda-47:
i prefer boobs to boks
14 Sep 2012, 18:50 pm
@Robzim-46:
You damned if you do and you damned if you don’t.
14 Sep 2012, 18:52 pm
Eating Niknaks at Nagmall tonight
14 Sep 2012, 18:52 pm
@Marty-22:
well done.
i’m just a little regretful i didn’t put nearly as much money as i would have liked to on the boks. i did put a lot though.
as well the argies
14 Sep 2012, 18:59 pm
@willievz-3:
they really were determined to do something about their boys being manhandled, albeit legally, in 2009. bothe lions as well the tri natinos experience was just too much. i mean the ab’s 3 – zip imagine that.
its was pretty clear from the get go in 2010 that playing / sporting ability was not going to be the determining factor in those matches. some larfable penalties against the boks and oh so many non penalties against the blacks.
14 Sep 2012, 19:00 pm
@blik-52:
Not all mothers talk good about their kids, mine never does
14 Sep 2012, 19:10 pm
@blik-30: “I am curious anyway, give me a few examples of where the Boks have been favoured in the last 20 years?”
How about BIL series? Nurtured like newborns.
14 Sep 2012, 19:11 pm
I believe that there are coaches out there who are capable of competently coaching the boks, coaches who are capable of handling the useless politicians and screeching, hysterical fans, and that there are coaches who are stupid or arrogant enough to actually apply for the poisoned chalice that is the Bok coaching job, but I don’t believe that there are any coaches that have all three qualities.
14 Sep 2012, 19:15 pm
I wonder what will happen to Heyneke’s walkie-talkie after the game and is it insured against abnormal decibels and smashing.
14 Sep 2012, 19:18 pm
@gonzo-21: Keep your hand in the sand.
Your precious ABs are a disgrace when it comes to infringements.
Please explain to me why there were no cards for the following incidents:
Umaga on O’Driscoll.
Brad Thorne on John Smit.
Two of the most severe infringements in Rugby history.
14 Sep 2012, 19:27 pm
@willievz-62: Yes, BOD incident was a disgrace, no argument, both should have been banned for quite a long time.
However, speaking about “ones of the most severe” how about that same Smit crushing French captain’s Thion’s larynx with his elbow?
14 Sep 2012, 19:38 pm
@Soda-47: Contact Prince William.
This is a rugby sit.LOL
14 Sep 2012, 19:39 pm
Sit =site
14 Sep 2012, 19:54 pm
Just hope kieran eye gouger reid doesnt get away with murder again…
14 Sep 2012, 19:57 pm
@Nils-63:
you dimwit, for everyone of the you and gonzo have listed the boks players responsible recieved hefty suspensions.
smit got a six or eight week suspension, did not appeal because he felt himself guilty enought to be punished and was remorseful. he also unreservedly apologised to the thion.
now show us anywhere near equivalent for thorn, omaga and kevvie ‘i didn’t do it’ mealamu?
that joker then had the nerve to appeal his subsequent one week headbutt saying it was not in his character and he was squecky clean.
and before you desperately grasp, we know thorn got a one week suspension too. one week… hahaha
14 Sep 2012, 19:58 pm
for everyone of the you and gonzo have listed = for everyone of the incidents you and gonzo have listed
14 Sep 2012, 20:02 pm
and if i even remember the incident correctly he never even saw his unintended target due to the fact he ‘lashed out’ / hit his arm out to someone behind him in an attempt to protect the ball from being grabbed out from his arm.
it wasn’t lke he lined someone up. which is what those filthy kiwis do on tap.
14 Sep 2012, 20:03 pm
larfable really when a kiwi tries to deflect filthy play by playing a *** for tat game.
larfable.
14 Sep 2012, 20:26 pm
t i t
14 Sep 2012, 20:26 pm
I have a nephew in Christchurch who has been instructed to sink all the canoes and outriggers should the A.B’s win, in which case none of the AB players will be going home to the islands after the match. L.O.L
14 Sep 2012, 20:40 pm
Posts@72 EVERY single player in the current AB squad was born in NZ. So who’s going home to the islands?
14 Sep 2012, 20:44 pm
Watching the Leopards destroy the Valke. And forget this whole Steyn, Goosen, Lambie, Jantjes debate. The man we should have had in Dunedin is none other than Andre Pretorius. Say what you want, but he’s still pure class. Still peers at the posts from beneath that raised eyebrow before slotting them from all over, in gusting wind. And still that beautiful floated long pass to put midfielders into gaps. A joy to watch.
14 Sep 2012, 21:15 pm
@Delki-73:
you kiwis seem to have a serious complex about the pi issue.
never seen one of you laugh it off as another joke or banter.
always get worked up as if there is an element of truth in it?
14 Sep 2012, 21:15 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-67: Take some valium before you get a seizure.
14 Sep 2012, 21:19 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-69: “he never even saw his unintended target due to the fact he ‘lashed out’ / hit his arm out to someone behind him”
Hehehe, what a plonker. So oke just hits someone behind him with his elbow and it’s all fine.
Please live many many years for my enjoyment every day, here’s sugar for your today’s efforts.
14 Sep 2012, 21:19 pm
@Delki-73:
oh ok, 2nd generation or first?
@Nils-76:
thats lame nils, you can do better
make me wanna spit on you again
14 Sep 2012, 21:21 pm
@charo-75: I’ve noticed that too. It’s like trying to crack a farm invasion joke with a ZANU Zimbo. No matter how funny, they never ever laugh.
14 Sep 2012, 21:24 pm
@Nils-77:
poppa needs to take you in, and teach you how to troll.
are you even phukking trying?
why waste my time
doos
14 Sep 2012, 21:26 pm
yes toulon!
gunther scores hahaha
at least he makes up for butchering an earlier opportunity
14 Sep 2012, 21:26 pm
@Nils-77:
hey nils, i think you might be confusing the actual incident.
smittie fended off the defender with his forearm – quite clearly (there are many photos of it).
unfortunately it connected with his neck – clearly unintended but the suspension was accepted in good grace and an apology tendered.
must say that i have become disappointed with you lately – started off as a level headed blogger who happened to support the ab’s – and turned into a bit of a sniping whinger much like the rest of their fans.
hope i am wrong.
14 Sep 2012, 21:27 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-78: Your repeated desire to spit on me does not worry me at the slightest. I already told you, I do not deal with rabid animals, Bakkies.
For an animal you write pretty well, I must give you that though.
14 Sep 2012, 21:29 pm
@charo-82: Tell me about what I have whinged.
14 Sep 2012, 21:32 pm
@katman-79:
yep, the buggers are far too serious for it to be a minor matter in the recent history of the ab’s.
methinks they know it was the turning point in their national psyche’s desire to be good at something (so the whole world would take notice) for it to be simply laughed off.
14 Sep 2012, 21:32 pm
@charo-82:
i knew it was something like that from memory but could recall exactly.
i dont think i’ve ever seen smit do anything intentionally or with malice in my life.
@Nils-83:
a little but keep trying.
i am getting there.
sort of vaguely feel like maybe spitting at you, whatever…
but i need to you to earn it, come on… you must work for it you c unt.
14 Sep 2012, 21:32 pm
whats so goddamn funny about a farm invasion story told to a Zimbo… stupid little plaasjaapie moronic idiot should tell such jokes to a Zimbo in Harare not here in his baby arsewipe betchuwana land see how funny it becomes then .. they sure to laugh so hard they chuck you into a detention cell never to see the light again.
Like Steve Biko telling PW Botha or John Vorster that its funny his boertjie bull mastiff wange look like gobbledigook turkeys bloated up in grotesque greasy grime juice .. no wonder they found it so funny they chucked him down the stairs…
Same as telling a NZder that his AB team is filled with PI’s what EXACTLY is supposed to be so goddamn funny about that.??
14 Sep 2012, 21:34 pm
bakkies so so but lazy at the rucks / breakdown.
he does not bring the legal pain as much anymore.
14 Sep 2012, 21:37 pm
@Nils-84:
are you serious?
go back over the last few months and look at your posts again through the eyes of the “old” nils – the bloke who was a pleasure on keo and who added an eastern/northern european view of rugby.
mate, you have changed a lot. perhaps because there has been a lot of goading from some bok fans but previously you have always been above that and kept your good sense of humour.
my view – could be totally wrong.
14 Sep 2012, 21:43 pm
NZ 54 – 6 RSA
14 Sep 2012, 21:44 pm
So its mighty strange
I wonder how many rabid avid Bokke fans are actually rooting for Boks to klap the AB’s tomorrow..
Strange kinda feeling but I feel absolutely fokol… !!
I wonder how many of the players are feeling kinda like me… where all the old Bokke gees has been sold down the river of no return…
Far as I’m concerned AB’s can stuff Bokke through their one dimensional naughts tomorrow.. there is hardly any patriotic fervor left to even get remotely excited about…
14 Sep 2012, 21:45 pm
@fitz1ella-87: Hey, old balsak. Are we still on for tomorrow morning? How will I know it’s you? Maybe wear a carnation in your lapel. I hope you don’t mind – I’m a bit of a loud rugby viewer. Not everyone likes that in a pub. I’m sure we’ll be fine though. See you tomorrow.
14 Sep 2012, 21:45 pm
@sandeno-90: That might just do the trick.. I’m kinda hoping that’ll be the way it goes.
Otherwise we are in for the most one dimensional boring route to never never land for the next excruciating 4 more years.
14 Sep 2012, 21:46 pm
@charo-89: Charo, I may look irritated sometimes. We all sometimes look like that on either side of the trench, some more some less.
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-86: Yawn. I wonder, whether you like that only in safe anonymous cyberspace or in real life, too.
14 Sep 2012, 21:46 pm
@katman-92: come try your luck fckface see how far you get through the front door.
14 Sep 2012, 21:46 pm
Every legend must run his course. it is time to take McCaw down. Flo with the Duane, boys.
14 Sep 2012, 21:49 pm
@fitz1ella-95: This is going to be so cool. Like two old penpals finally meeting up. I have a feeling you’re going to learn so much about the game, watching it with me. I get the impression you’re not a very informed rugby fan, from your posts. Nothing wrong with that. You’ve got lots of heart, which is good. But I’m going to expand your knowledge of the game tenfold. We’re going to have so much fun.
14 Sep 2012, 21:50 pm
naughty hands hayman
14 Sep 2012, 21:53 pm
@katman-97: like I said come try your luck.. you won’t get through the front door with the attitude you wear on lapel. Not a fat chance in hell little katmankunt .. stupid runtcunt over aggrandized imbecile.
14 Sep 2012, 21:54 pm
@Nils-94:
oh ok
i dont wonder anything about you, nils
you’re a doos to me all the same, in cyberspace or out.
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