Boks’ massive mission
14 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE looks at the trends that could shape the Dunedin Test, with the stats suggesting the Springboks will struggle.
Attack
The facet of play most lamented among Springbok supporters. Heyneke Meyer’s kick-chase approach has failed to work in the manner he has envisioned and the widely held view is that the Springboks have no Plan B, or at least a very ineffective one. Flyhalf Morné Steyn has kicked the 30% of the time he has taken the ball at first receiver – this compared with the All Blacks’ 16%. The Blacks’ flyhalves have passed the ball nearly 68% of the time, while Steyn is down at 56% and runs the ball 13% of the time. The pace, precision and skill with which the Blacks attack has been their strength. Ominously, the Blacks have broken more tackles than they’ve made kicks and have broken more tackles than any team in the tournament. Furthermore, they have made the most successful offloads and clean linebreaks in the tournament, which has been central to their attacking success. The Springboks pale in comparison in these attacking disciplines.
Defence
It is critical that the Springboks boss the gainline and breakdown in a bid to slow the Blacks’ recycle. Their previous showings in the latter have been poor, while their tackling was mediocre at best against Australia in Perth (it had been good before that). The inclusion of Francois Louw at openside flank is a good one, but his effectiveness rests heavily on the team’s gainline punch. The Springboks average nearly 16 missed tackles per game. Their previous opponents haven’t possessed the capacity to punish them in the manner the Blacks will. They simply have to cut down this figure. The Blacks miss around 11 tackles per match, but very few of those in their 22m. The platform the Springboks’ heavies lay will be crucial if they are to break down this efficient unit.
Errors
In the absence of any attacking creativity or flair, the Springboks will rely heavily on their kick-chase to pressure the All Blacks into penalties and build their score in that manner. However, tellingly, the Blacks’ discipline in their 22m has been exceptional, with the bulk of their indiscretions coming in the zone between their 22 and halfway line (and most of those closer to halfway). Morné Steyn’s goal-kicking form has been inconsistent and from those distances his accuracy will be compromised. Frans Steyn’s gun-boot may be the alternative, although he too hasn’t been too accurate (3 from 8 attempts). The Blacks will want to improve on their penalty count in the opposition’s 22m (24% of their total penalties have been conceded in that zone), while the Springboks are slightly better at 21%. However, they are close to 30% in the zone between the opposition’s 22m and halfway. The Springboks’ biggest problem has been their turnover rate in the red zone, which stands at nearly 43%. That has contributed significantly to struggles and is a facet of play they must improve exponentially to stand a chance of victory. Notably, the Blacks are far better at protecting the ball in this zone, which accounts for their superior try tally. The Springboks have also stolen painfully little (6% of their turnovers) in this area.
The Ref
George Clancy is averaging 3.5 scrum resets per game and is handing out 4.5 scrum infringements (pens and F/K). On average 79% of the time it will be conceded by the defending team. Clancy is handing out an average of 20 penalties per game with the bulk of those coming at the breakdown. On average 7.0 penalties will be inside the 22 and 7.0 penalties will become kicks at goal.
Stats supplied by ruckingoodstats
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267 Comments
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14 Sep 2012, 21:55 pm
Can’t recall the last time I ever thought the Boks had absolutely no chance of beating the ABs. In fact I don’t think I ever have previously. I do now though, sad how far we have fallen… I think the Boks are going to be humiliated tomorrow. And strangely, I don’t really care a great deal that I feel that way. I think Meyer has turned some of my green blood red.
14 Sep 2012, 21:55 pm
showdown at victorian times?
fark, here i am sitting in durbs.
going to miss the action.
@Nils-94:
you never seemed to get irritated before?
keo has become a bit of an irritating place lately though – too many idiots expressing idiotic views – and allowed to do so by the administrator.
that’s why you see so little of me.
cheers for now.
14 Sep 2012, 21:55 pm
Being thrashed in NZ is the greatest insult to every South Africa, Shoot. We have to at least give them a run for their money, and leave the field with dignity. If we lose, JdV should resign as captain, and that will leave HM very exposed. Especially if JdV plays a blinder. And I believe he will.
14 Sep 2012, 21:56 pm
@Honesty Box Seymour-101: I’m hoping they get smacked to hell..
The bigger the loss tomorrow the better.. get it THROUGH this morons THICKER than THICK skull
14 Sep 2012, 21:59 pm
@charo-102: Cheers, have a good evening.
14 Sep 2012, 21:59 pm
@charo-102: you met this pisswilly little piepiejoller that thinks the sun shines out his pisswilly little cleverdick fanny?
I got zero inclination to make acquaintances with peanut brained arsewipes .. especially those little pissarse runts that think they are way more intelligent than they actually are.
14 Sep 2012, 22:00 pm
@fitz1ella-104: nope unlike you I would never be comfortable with wishing a big smack on my team. I hope the Boks win tomorrow.
14 Sep 2012, 22:01 pm
@fitz1ella-104: last year pdv lost 40 – 7 with smit as cappie & msteyn playing 15, what could be abigger smack than that?
14 Sep 2012, 22:01 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-100: So no diffence to me either, animal.
14 Sep 2012, 22:02 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-100:
no, nils is a cool guy.
a bit swayed by the ab’s recent success maybe, but not a doos.
in fact, when he first appeared, some of his english was not perfect but he has progressed impressively.
pity that some of our acidic kiwi mates have influenced him.
14 Sep 2012, 22:03 pm
dammit soft try toulon
defence defence
14 Sep 2012, 22:05 pm
@Honesty Box Seymour-107: well good luck to you
shows you got not all that much courage.. you want the Boks to win but you don’t believe they can..
I on the other hand think they can actually with some assistance by circumstance and ref interpretation and AB’s not being as fully functional as they been lately turn the tables tomorrow, but my inner sense of urgency wants this dead end delusional nonentity of a game plan to get smashed to hell so that it DIES the DEATH it deserves..
14 Sep 2012, 22:06 pm
@Nils-109:
dont be a farken doos, nils
if you’re gonna insult me then have the decency to call me some a little worse than that.
fark you man!
14 Sep 2012, 22:06 pm
@charo-110: Let me be clear, Charo, “swaying” has nothing to do with any teams success of lack of thereof. You won’t see me gloating on and on “blacks dis, blacks dat” or ridiculing “Boks dis, Boks dat”.
But yes, I got slightly pissed off by some pests lately.
14 Sep 2012, 22:07 pm
@charo-110:
oh ok
i seem to recall similarly about him too.
how people fall in love with those people is a mystery to me.
14 Sep 2012, 22:09 pm
@fitz1ella-106:
bugger, am staying up later than i should.
skoppie, as in most of these cyber conflicts, a face to face meeting almost always changes pent up frustrations and antogonists see more common ground than they thought existed.
i have met you both and i know that, in real life, neither are as combatant as you appear on the “interweb”.
14 Sep 2012, 22:09 pm
toulon losing focus
14 Sep 2012, 22:09 pm
@Transformation-108: another smack similar to that would do just fine.. even a little worse might be better.
But the Boks might just stand up tomorrow in spite of their archaic dead end game plan.. Ab’s might just choke on the over expectancy and Boks might just decide to pitch up on the occasion.
If its kick and chase then I want a big loss.. if we play archaic kick chase garbage like we have been since 2000 – 2001 then the bigger the loss the better far as I’m concerned.
14 Sep 2012, 22:09 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-113: Bakkies, no way I intend to insult you. How could I, you wouldn’t feel an insult even if it is moved deep into your place where sun does not shine, so I do not even try.
Have a good day, Bakkies. Sleep well and get ready for tomorrow.
14 Sep 2012, 22:11 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-115:
Who is your all time favourite new zeelander?
Not on keo, but in real life, somebody that you admire?
14 Sep 2012, 22:12 pm
@charo-110: Anyway, take care and prepare for resumed hostilities tomorrow. (Nothing personally hostile, I have nothing but respect for you).
Cheers, till the game.
14 Sep 2012, 22:16 pm
@charo-116: yes and no… people say what they mean on the interweb because there are no nicety boundaries that prevent them from doing so.. so I can pretty much ‘see’ where this little cleverdick prick is coming from.. and far as I’m concerned he don’t deserve the input or the good company that he so cravenly seeks…
He still got plenty growing to do.. and I am not in the least interested in affording him that much of an opportunity to come suck up and try grow up face to face when he can’t do it on cyberspace.
14 Sep 2012, 22:17 pm
@Nils-119:
thats probably true nils, i am often told i am disgustingly thick skinned.
but there are times when i have feelings of empathy, and i think i have a leaned reflex which often kicks in to apologise when someone seems really hurt or angry, mostly just to make them feel better.
you have a good day/night too.
14 Sep 2012, 22:21 pm
@Robzim-120:
i dont know if i have one.
i cant say there’s anyone outside of sport who i know or admire.
i suppose i would say jerry collins… the last of a breed…
for the most part a rare example of a kiwi rugby player who played it as hard as it could be and gave everything, no quarter asked… but never played it dirty or low.
ja
i like jerry collins
14 Sep 2012, 22:25 pm
do it froggy
14 Sep 2012, 22:25 pm
missed
14 Sep 2012, 22:30 pm
I think there is an underlying anger in everybody right now. From Bokke befokke to Marikana. How a win in NZ would cool the furnace.
14 Sep 2012, 22:31 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-124:
All right, thanks, that is interesting…. he was indeed one hard bugger.
Mine are Josh Kronfeld, Zinzan Brooke (the best rugbyplayer i have ever seen) Neil Finn (Crowed House) and the freediver William Trubridge.
The prettiest is Rachel Hunter. Fark knows what she saw in Rod Steward, but maybe he has a great personality.
14 Sep 2012, 22:31 pm
fark no!
14 Sep 2012, 22:32 pm
soft try
14 Sep 2012, 22:33 pm
if Bokke win tomorrow by a big fluke or AB’s dropping the ball or the ref turning a blind eye I ain’t going to be impressed on little bit
I can’t see them turning their one dimensional game around.. If Pienaar and Steyn and Kirchner kick EVERYTHING into the goddamn sky.. then I do Not care for an ugly f’ng win.. I want the UGLIEST F’NG LOSS EVER..!!!
14 Sep 2012, 22:41 pm
PDV won two in a row in New zealand so it should be a walk in the park for the Great One heyneke
14 Sep 2012, 22:46 pm
@Robzim-128:
ok
i dont consider kronfeld or brooke to have been clean enough to respect, specially as kiwis. i would rather take cullen at a push (he was one helluva running fb, i’ll give em that) and do not think highly enough of crowded house, the diver or rachel hunter (she’s ok but not that hot) to even consider them in any meaningful way.
i probably am becoming a bitter man with age.
but most of these kiwis are dooses or simply retarded not to understand their behaviour.
if thats where you’re going.
14 Sep 2012, 22:52 pm
still enough to win
toulon stay top of the log
looking to challenge toulouse
14 Sep 2012, 22:54 pm
i’m off
cheers
and good luck bokke
14 Sep 2012, 22:54 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-133: what outright trash you talking that a player has to be ‘clean’ in your hyper sensitized imagination
you got some fetish going on in your brain that AB rugby players don’t live up to your self infatuated levels of honor or dignity.. are you somewhat insane.. since when do ANY rugby players live up to that inordinate level of scrupulous ‘cleanliness’ and honor on a rugby field.. If you were damn right HONEST about it SA rugby players are probably the biggest thugs on the planet.. and you want to come preach about AB payers not living up to your false estimation of what comprises ‘cleanliness’..
Get f’ng REAL or else go and watch table tennis .. because there is NO such thing as a ‘clean’ rugby player ANYWHERE in this universe.
14 Sep 2012, 22:58 pm
@i_love_u_bakkiesbotha-133:
Oh well, we all have our favourites. I visited NZ twice- great place imo, lovely scenery and good people, no-one gave me any grief., i enjoyed the place and people.
Anyway, take it easy, tomorrow is going to be a big one.
14 Sep 2012, 23:00 pm
Bakkies is squeaky clean – he is a gdam saint and yet is persecuted by all.
14 Sep 2012, 23:10 pm
manana, compadres. viva la amabokkebokke
14 Sep 2012, 23:10 pm
quite right he’s so goddamn clean all he gotta do is his three hail Mary’s before he goes to bed and all his sins and transgressions miraculously get wiped out as if they never ever existed…
ain’t rugby (and religion) just grand… you can do your absolute worst but in the eyes of the lord and the doting loving disciples you always were and are most definitely going to heaven.
14 Sep 2012, 23:13 pm
or you can shag five women and say you are leading the nation and advancing women’s rights!
14 Sep 2012, 23:14 pm
quite right – Minor transgressions in the road of life – he makes up for it with his holy penatance and supreme devotion.
14 Sep 2012, 23:15 pm
I’m a wondering how many Hail Mary’s Heyneke is dutifully saying tonight..
and I’m a wondering whether Mary even vaguely gives a bloody toss
Sooner they wake up and smell the goddamn Gorgonzola cheese the better
14 Sep 2012, 23:19 pm
Viva jinxie2
Ribzim, v nice place, my 2 bestest lifelong pals are from oz and nz respectively.
14 Sep 2012, 23:23 pm
lol – I think he is absolutely kakking off for tomoro. Poor oke doesn’t deserve all the pressure we put on him – WTF is it anyway? A gdam oval-shaped piece of pigskin – hell I hope I remember that after we lose tomoro.
14 Sep 2012, 23:24 pm
@fitz1ella-143:
Heineken is an Orange Man with knee caps still in order.
14 Sep 2012, 23:24 pm
lifelong pals wtf is that
just like there no such thing as a clean rugby player and no such thing as a rugby god who gonna be listening to your hail Mary prayers.. there also no such thing as a life long pal .. those are all just fancy day dreams made up in super duper heaven.
14 Sep 2012, 23:25 pm
Stop at Green and Go on Amber
14 Sep 2012, 23:26 pm
@Jinx2-146: whats an orange man.. little over my head that
14 Sep 2012, 23:27 pm
@Jinx2-148: okay ..
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