Boks’ massive mission
14 Sep 2012
RYAN VREDE looks at the trends that could shape the Dunedin Test, with the stats suggesting the Springboks will struggle.
Attack
The facet of play most lamented among Springbok supporters. Heyneke Meyer’s kick-chase approach has failed to work in the manner he has envisioned and the widely held view is that the Springboks have no Plan B, or at least a very ineffective one. Flyhalf Morné Steyn has kicked the 30% of the time he has taken the ball at first receiver – this compared with the All Blacks’ 16%. The Blacks’ flyhalves have passed the ball nearly 68% of the time, while Steyn is down at 56% and runs the ball 13% of the time. The pace, precision and skill with which the Blacks attack has been their strength. Ominously, the Blacks have broken more tackles than they’ve made kicks and have broken more tackles than any team in the tournament. Furthermore, they have made the most successful offloads and clean linebreaks in the tournament, which has been central to their attacking success. The Springboks pale in comparison in these attacking disciplines.
Defence
It is critical that the Springboks boss the gainline and breakdown in a bid to slow the Blacks’ recycle. Their previous showings in the latter have been poor, while their tackling was mediocre at best against Australia in Perth (it had been good before that). The inclusion of Francois Louw at openside flank is a good one, but his effectiveness rests heavily on the team’s gainline punch. The Springboks average nearly 16 missed tackles per game. Their previous opponents haven’t possessed the capacity to punish them in the manner the Blacks will. They simply have to cut down this figure. The Blacks miss around 11 tackles per match, but very few of those in their 22m. The platform the Springboks’ heavies lay will be crucial if they are to break down this efficient unit.
Errors
In the absence of any attacking creativity or flair, the Springboks will rely heavily on their kick-chase to pressure the All Blacks into penalties and build their score in that manner. However, tellingly, the Blacks’ discipline in their 22m has been exceptional, with the bulk of their indiscretions coming in the zone between their 22 and halfway line (and most of those closer to halfway). Morné Steyn’s goal-kicking form has been inconsistent and from those distances his accuracy will be compromised. Frans Steyn’s gun-boot may be the alternative, although he too hasn’t been too accurate (3 from 8 attempts). The Blacks will want to improve on their penalty count in the opposition’s 22m (24% of their total penalties have been conceded in that zone), while the Springboks are slightly better at 21%. However, they are close to 30% in the zone between the opposition’s 22m and halfway. The Springboks’ biggest problem has been their turnover rate in the red zone, which stands at nearly 43%. That has contributed significantly to struggles and is a facet of play they must improve exponentially to stand a chance of victory. Notably, the Blacks are far better at protecting the ball in this zone, which accounts for their superior try tally. The Springboks have also stolen painfully little (6% of their turnovers) in this area.
The Ref
George Clancy is averaging 3.5 scrum resets per game and is handing out 4.5 scrum infringements (pens and F/K). On average 79% of the time it will be conceded by the defending team. Clancy is handing out an average of 20 penalties per game with the bulk of those coming at the breakdown. On average 7.0 penalties will be inside the 22 and 7.0 penalties will become kicks at goal.
Stats supplied by ruckingoodstats
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267 Comments
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14 Sep 2012, 23:28 pm
@fitz1ella-150:
Unionist
14 Sep 2012, 23:30 pm
What u never had a permanent friendship that spans a good part of this life ? I ain’t talking about the next lifetime or otherwirldy dimensions here so don’t get all astral.
14 Sep 2012, 23:33 pm
@cab-145: you know these okes are suckers for getting their heads mashed into pulp.. Poor Jake the Fake didn’t know which goddamn way was north east west or south he was so befuddled confused without a clue in the world.. in desperation he chucked out a hail Mary and out popped Eddy Judas Jones…
fck me Jakey’s Hail Mary’s gotta have more clout than Heyneke’s.. perhaps he goes down on bended knee a little more earnestly and a little less self assured and stiff necked.
That the thing with poison chalices .. they smell so sweet till you sip from it and find out its bitter and deathly as hell… but the funny thing is their ego got to taste that sh’t because they wanna PROVE to the world that they are maestro’s of absolutely nothing
14 Sep 2012, 23:35 pm
@cab-152: no such thing as permanency in this creation .. when you gonna discover that..
make a little hay while the sun shines that as about as permanent as anything ever gonna get.
14 Sep 2012, 23:37 pm
the first page of this thread is a farken classic..
a whole pagwe of complaints about a ref BEFORE the game and about Ritchie McCaw..
farken funny stuff…
the sense of entitlement from Bok fans is ridiculous..
three wins in NZ in the professional era… THREE ? WTF? hahahaha
no wonder so many of our younger generation think Aussie are our main rivals, yep, that same Aussie who have made you guys their Biytaches..
this thread is hilarious stuff…
How about Matfields head high shot on kelleher that went unpunished? just 9one example iof leniency toward the Bokke, but no, its only the ABs it seems..
delusional and chewing on the conspiracy cracker, is it any wonder your rugby is k@K..
14 Sep 2012, 23:38 pm
Blik 38
I nipped out for dinner, hope u didnt think i was ignoring u. Yes, they were banned but the ref and assist ref all missed/ignored the foul play and u asked for examples. I agree there were games when the boks were hard done by but its the same for the abs, aussies, french, brits. The welsh swear their kick went over in the world cup vs boks, the english claim they scored a try in the 2007 final. Everyone does. But if u cant even admit that those are three legitimate examples then you are too far gone down the conspiracy path for me to help u. You are destined for a life of being the victim
14 Sep 2012, 23:40 pm
153 SS
ag they also only doing their best – WTF do we actually know in any case? Maybe this hoof and a prayer is manor from heaven – what I can’t understand is how it is actually meant to score tries – I mean WTF do they think that it’s going to bounce right off daggs pip into the hands of habana? What’s more likely is dagg or jane will catch it 1-handed, beat 3 bok defenders and set up savea for a try.
14 Sep 2012, 23:45 pm
By making hay do you mean hokey pokey – good thinking.
14 Sep 2012, 23:47 pm
yep its downright befuddling idiocy of the highest order.. its like playing black jack.. kick the ball into the sky and PRAY that it comes down SOMEWHERE on your side of the track
I seriously hope Jane, Dagg , Smith and Savea score at least 6 tries from those goddamn hail Mary kicks into the sky..
The ONLY way this DAMN ignoramus IDIOT is going to learn that it Simply DON’T WORK is when he watches it FAIL after FAIL after FAIL
They been watching it FAIL since 2009.. HOW much LONGER are they going to keep watching it FAIL before they REALIZE its a DEAD goddamn DODO DUCK…?
14 Sep 2012, 23:52 pm
They say it’s not blackjack, they say it all about execution. Supposedly if you can land it on a tickie from 50 paces and u pressure with defense you turn that into offence – apparently this is how all the teams are playing winning rugby despite tge fact that they seem to have strikerunners to burn.
14 Sep 2012, 23:55 pm
hokey pokey one way of making hay.. if that the way that grabs your fancy only that’s like making babies… which ain’t always so easy to make merry around.. it gets kinda heavy paying for nappies with hay.
for every action is an equal and opposite reaction.. thus sayeth Zarathustra or one his other side kicks.
I’m out catch up tomorrow .. at Dunedin Desolation Demolition D Day
14 Sep 2012, 23:57 pm
@fitz1ella-147:
“lifelong pals wtf is that”
Funny that this is the question I came across now because I asked myself the question just now.
Background: A good friend of mine just visited me. Now, we were/are friends since we were about 6 years old.
Unfortunately, our lives took different pathways. He is the happy go lucky, good fellow, friends with everybody, drink my dronk, rook boom en tik kind of guy, while I’m not.
So, he came to me tonight and we talk a bit of kak. In the meantime, I knew that he was looking for some money to go on a spree but I did not give him a chance to ask me for it, knowing full well that he will use it for his addiction.
So my question is this: Was I correct in my action and is it better to rather lose a friend that you know for so long?
I know that friendship is a thing of seasons but when you grew up together there is a difference, don’t you think?
15 Sep 2012, 00:00 am
its a Bullshit game plan.. kick and chase .. the most idiotic non reasonable non scientific non executive type game plan possibly imagined by man
outright pathetic stupor which is BOUND to fail…
If they going to pursue it again tomorrow which by all accounts is on the cards I am hoping AB’s run in 10 tries to zip and kill this garbage idea off once and for all
Smit turned PdV into accepting this garbage and because it worked in 2009 with old ELV rules.. they persisted with it and LOST almost EVERY test SINCE then…
and now they continuing it STILL
I hope they lose by HUGE margin tomorrow and let the lesson sink IN once and for all. I hope they get THUMPED with every high kick I hope AB’s score a try.
15 Sep 2012, 00:02 am
@poppa69-155:
“the sense of entitlement from Bok fans is ridiculous..”
Come on now Poppa.
You can at least say, “the sense of entitlement from SOME Bok fans is ridiculous..”
You know we are not all like that, don’t you?
15 Sep 2012, 00:02 am
Gdam nappies don’t sound so good – luckily enough they’ve invented **** which zoro didn’t have for the fencing in his day.
later
15 Sep 2012, 00:05 am
@nama1-162: you did the right thing.. such friends are not friends at ALL…
you on your own.. from the cradle to the grave.. nobody going to get born for you and nobody going to die for you.. best you can possibly do is be a source of strength or comfort for someone in dire need for REAL support or moral assistance .. but basically we are on our own.. from birth to death with some few close associations along the way, and mostly those are with family more so than with so called friends.. though we do on occasion develop strong sincere ‘friendships’ mostly they come and then go.
See you anon.. out for now.
15 Sep 2012, 00:06 am
@nama1-164: apologies Nama, yes, there are quite a few good okes here…
but you have to dig deep to see their posts, I guess the same could be said of me, but its only banter
looking forward to another wonderful installment of Bok/AB rugby.. am very nervous and cant agree with all the talk of a smashing, far from it I think.. a 10 point win would be most satisfying imo..
15 Sep 2012, 00:09 am
@fitz1ella-154:
“no such thing as permanency in this creation .. ”
Not even the ANC governing South Africa?
Don’t let Zuma hear that.
15 Sep 2012, 00:10 am
Yeah it’s bullshit – always was. You can do it every now and again foe some variety but there’s no ways you are going to beat nz and oz with that permanent rubbish.
Only one way tge Boks in with a shout and that’s if our pack takes it to them, we get momentum, control and retain our ball and get quick ball to attack with not to hoof away. Kick kick kick – actually maybe I better not watch
15 Sep 2012, 00:13 am
@cab-169: its deciding when to kick that is the key, and when to run with ball in hand…
NZs advantage is that the backs are also almost as proficient as the forwards in holding up opposition players with ball in hand OR driving through a ruck to create turnover ball…
15 Sep 2012, 00:20 am
Yes Poppa agree on tge variety – you also have better strikerunners but I think we have better forwards tho maybe not for tomoro.
Tomoro Bokke will have to rely on pure gees otherwise could be one holy moly smashing I reckon.
15 Sep 2012, 00:30 am
@cab-171: nah, still plenty of reservations for me… should be a good game and a week is a long time in rugby, as always I think the first 20-30 minutes will be brutal and will decide the outcome.. if Boks are still in it after that, then they can spring the “upset” but if they are behind by more than 7 at that stage they will struggle to stay with the ABs I think..
15 Sep 2012, 00:32 am
@poppa69-167:
I would like to believe that Pops. That the Boks would be good competition for the AB tomorrow. My AB supporting friend said the same thing tonight but I just can’t see it.
For about 50 minutes maybe. Then the Red Sea will open once again.
I think it will be a nightmare for us Bok fans watching this game tomorrow.
(Hope you’re right though)
15 Sep 2012, 00:36 am
Our Bok forwards need to up their fitness levels,they protect the ball poorly……NZ will counter ruck with ease.Kirchner and Steyn so predictable…….forwards also hang off pods to bash forward………..after a few phases bashing up they knock on ….ball handling skills are poorly coached i`m afraid………..Lambie will come on very late …………Jannie Du Plessis will concede a few penalties in the scrum…….the clowns and present coaches running the Boks should hang their heads in shame…………….Give me Mallet and Solomons anyday and see the team progress………….also i would employ someone like Campese to assist with the backline
15 Sep 2012, 00:40 am
@nama1-173: mate, Foster coaching our backline, is it any coincidence that they now resemble the chiefs backline when he had them, all the talent but not being able to finish and sqaundering many chances… imagine if Smith was coaching the backline during the two Aussie tests..
I have not a lot of confidence in our coaching panel, though I must say Hansen has impressed me with his willingness to introduce new players and how he has done it..
also, I see your HTML skills are improving
15 Sep 2012, 00:40 am
@poppa69-170: @poppa69-172:
No Pops, Cab is absolutely right when he says, “if our pack takes it to them, we get momentum, control and retain our ball and get quick ball to attack ”
That’s the only way we can win this game. Unfortunately we sit with a loose trio where one player comes from a long lay-off due to injury (Vermeulen), a 2nd one who is top heavy and only good for 30 minutes (Alberts) and the 3rd one who is still on holiday (Flo).
That’s our loose trio out of the game after 30 minutes and that’s where you’ll moer us.
I’m not even going to the tight five where you obviously have the upper hand..
15 Sep 2012, 00:45 am
Marcelle Coetzee made some great tackles the last game……..Alberts on the other hand was mediocre
15 Sep 2012, 00:48 am
@wpforever-174:
Forget Kirchner and Morne.
They are not going to cost us the game or win it for us if the Boks do the impossible tomorrow.
The game will be determined by the forwards.
@poppa69-175:
I had a good teacher.
STORMERSBOY
WP/Stormers supporters roll like that, you know.
Can’t say the same for Bulls supporters like Dawn.
15 Sep 2012, 00:52 am
@nama1-176: Im surprised we started Whitelock to be honest, I guess Hansen wanted his experience during the early exchanges.. having Retallick come on after half time is a bonus for us, he has size and skill and we are fortunate that Romano has a physicality similar to Thorns ( though nowhere near him yet). Messam has also stepped up this year, proving that some players often take longer to reach the level required…
Hore starting is also an indication that NZ want to win the battle on the ground, he often plays an almost second “fetcher” (hate that word) type of role too… he is somewhat like Brussouw in his ability to retain his feet at the ruck imo..
still not writing you guys off though…
15 Sep 2012, 00:53 am
@wpforever-177:
Apart from his tackles, what else does Marcelle bring to the table?
What he does in the game, is what I expect from a 7 or 8. Not an open side loosie.
Let’s see how Flo goes tomorrow.
Let me just say that I’ve never been a big fan of Flo, even as a WP/Stormer supporter.
15 Sep 2012, 00:56 am
lets see if these work
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15 Sep 2012, 00:56 am
South Africa has won just nine rugby matches in New Zealand since 1921
15 Sep 2012, 00:56 am
@TheTackler-182: Tests, that is.
15 Sep 2012, 01:00 am
@poppa69-179:
Your selection of Weepu is already an indication of the kind of game we can expect from the AB tomorrow. OK, I know he is there by default because of some indiscretion your SH, but still.
If you quicken up the game in the 2nd half, our boys will be nowhere, I think.
Whitelock vs Flip?
I know who I want in my team.
15 Sep 2012, 01:02 am
@TheTackler-183:
So what?
Before 2008, they won ZERO in Dunedin.
15 Sep 2012, 01:04 am
Springboks do not have a snowball’s hope of winning tomorrow, Morne Steyn does nothing, same with Zane Kircher.
Heyneke Meyer is going to be like Robbie Deans, smash and kick tactics for the next 4 years,.
15 Sep 2012, 01:06 am
@maximus1-186:
Another one putting the blame on Zane and Morne.
How do you think our forwards will do against the AB pack tomorrow?
15 Sep 2012, 01:07 am
Nama
I think Weepu would have been selected even if Smith was a good boy
Argentina played a similar style to SA against us last week, and as such his experience showed in handling the physicality we expect today (it’s say morning here) .. agree Smith will come on to open up the game
15 Sep 2012, 01:08 am
TheTickler…………………Springboks never lost a test series home and away until 1956……..since beating the British Isles in 1903………..
15 Sep 2012, 01:14 am
@poppa69-188:
Yeah, but if Smith was a good boy, I think you would’ve been better off starting with him and make the game fast. That way, you can take Alberts and Vermeulen out of the game early (say after 25-30 minutes). With Weepu starting, you also going to play a pick-and-go type of game and keep the Bokke in the game for the 1st half, I think.
As I said earlier, you’ll run away with it in the last 15 minutes when you make it faster.
HOPE our boys will still be up for it then.
15 Sep 2012, 01:18 am
@wpforever-189:
Was that 1956 series the one when Tiny Naude missed the penalty/goalkick to draw/win the series in NZ?
15 Sep 2012, 01:25 am
@nama1-190: Smith is also quite small, and with Cruden I think it would have been a very profitable point of attack for your big forwards.. the 9-10 channel…Weepu imo is there as much for his playmaking ability as well as his sterner defense (irt Smith at this stage of his career)
Our forwards will look to move yours all over the park, especially because as you highlighted earlier two of your loosies havent had much game time recently (Vermuelen and Flouw)..
15 Sep 2012, 01:27 am
NZ won first one 10-6,SA the second one 8-3…………i think we lost the last one 17-9 or something…………….just going through my shoebox of SA Rugby memorabilia,got heaps of stuff……………..even those orange plastic rugby balls from the British Lions tour to SA in the eighties lol
15 Sep 2012, 01:34 am
@wpforever-193:
1 September 1956 Eden Park, Auckland 11 – 5 New Zealand
18 August 1956 Lancaster Park, Christchurch 17 – 10 New Zealand
4 August 1956 Athletic Park, Wellington 3 – 8 South Africa
14 July 1956 Carisbrook, Dunedin 10 – 6 New Zealand
15 Sep 2012, 01:38 am
Trying to put my predictions on bru for the RC and the CC but can’t access the site. What’s wrong there?
In any case: AB 29-12
15 Sep 2012, 01:39 am
Thanks Poppa………..we also gave a Springbok head to Waikato…………who beat us prior to the Tests…………..
i miss proper rugby tours ……….. i personally think the state of the game worldwide is not in a healthy state……………. and my beloved Boks is one of the main culprits !
15 Sep 2012, 01:48 am
Ja drillbits en aasvoels
sweet donkeys en passbooks
little bo beeping die skaap chops are sleeping
verwurgde worsies le dronk in die deepend
braai sous en spook bene
plektrums en dorings
these are some of my heuningkoek things
Kannie hoop, kannie loop, dra horings bokke.
15 Sep 2012, 01:59 am
WPForever
yep. a famous victory for the Waikato.
I too miss the proper tours, it’s where the rivalry and friendships are truly forged.
15 Sep 2012, 02:28 am
I keep saying it. There is something strange about this stadium in Dunedin.
No one has monstered / thrashed anyone here. This stadium has a very weird feel & I think it will affect the AB’s more than the Boks. It has no atmosphere oddly.
15 Sep 2012, 02:49 am
@PielNeus-197:
You have my attention, Piel. Appreciate the images and the spirit it evokes.
Here’s hoping…..
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